SUB-Trop Storm Beryl 2A
Evans F. Mitchell; KD4EFM / WQOD 582
WTNT32 KNHC 261137
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...BERYL MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COASTLINE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BERYL
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN
WWWW
WTNT42 KNHC 260850
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS
STILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR
THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.
OVERNIGHT THE CENTER OF BERYL HAS SLOWED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 255/04. AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BERYL SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND TURN WESTWARD AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE
COAST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE NEW TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND BERYL WILL MOVE AND HOW QUICKLY
IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO
BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH BERYL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND...AS A SHALLOWER WEAKER CYCLONE WILL NOT BE PICKED UP AS
QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW
MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...MORE WEAKENING...AND ARE SLOWEST WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF DOES NOT
MOVE BERYL AS FAR INLAND...MAINTAINS A DEEPER CYCLONE...AND
ACCELERATES IT NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN
THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 0226
UTC ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 31.8N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 31.0N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 30.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 30.6N 81.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/0600Z 34.5N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Evans F. Mitchell
KD4EFM / WQOD 582
http://www.florida-dstar.info
P25/D-Star/NXDN – Digital HAM RADIO
Product Support and Programmer
I.T.T. Tech Graduate – AAS – EET 91’
20+ yrs 2-Way Radio Tech. Experience
Publix, Where working is a pleasure!
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