1918 General Election in Ireland
Nicholas Whyte
election in Ireland on the Northern Ireland Elections site at
http://explorers.whyte.com/1918.htm - included are total votes for each
party in each constituency, names of the winning candidates, and
tallies for 32-county Ireland, 9-county Ulster and 6-county future
Northern Ireland. As always comments and suggestions for improvement
are welcome.
And Happy Christmas to everyone!
Nicholas Whyte
--
Nicholas Whyte, Centre for European Policy Studies
CEPS web-site: http://www.ceps.be/
Northern Ireland elections site: http://explorers.whyte.com/
Sent via Deja.com
http://www.deja.com/
Paul Linehan
Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> I have published a first go at a results page for the 1918 general
> election in Ireland on the Northern Ireland Elections site at
> http://explorers.whyte.com/1918.htm - included are total votes for each
> party in each constituency, names of the winning candidates, and
> tallies for 32-county Ireland, 9-county Ulster and 6-county future
> Northern Ireland. As always comments and suggestions for improvement
> are welcome.
Interesting enough. I do take issue with one thing though. You write
"so we will never know what the true level of popular support for the
party was", which is, to a certain extent, fair enough - I would just
like to see an addition to this phrase, something along the lines of
"though there is no doubt that SF were in the majority on the island".
But that's a minor quibble.
Another point is that there were two Arthur Griffiths on the Shinner
side - typo? two different people? stood twice?
Tyrone North West and Cavan East.
Oh oh, looked again. Seems that Eamon de Valera and Liam Mellows also
stood twice or had sons with the same name or......?
> And Happy Christmas to everyone!
And the same to you.
Paul...
> Nicholas Whyte
supe...@my-deja.com
But there are a few issues with this. The last time the island voted
was the European elections in June 1999 NOT 1994.
You mention the referenda on the "Good Friday Agreement". Firstly the
official title does not include any reference to "Good Friday".
Secondly, you fail to mention that while the people of N.I. voted on
the full Agreement, the people of the Republic voted on two issues
only; 1: Changing the terms of articles 2+3 in relation to this
country's claim to N.I.
2: Allowing the government to take part in cross-boarder authorities.
The people of the Republic DID NOT vote on ythe whole Agreement.
With 25 seats uncontested, it's fair to say that not only do we not
know the level of suppot for SF, we do not know the full level of
support for ANY party. It would help to show what level of support SF
would have needed in the 25 constituencies to get an overall majority
(my my reckoning it would be over 70%). From this (and subsequent
elections in these constituences), you can clearly show that the
majority of the people of the island did not support S.F.
However the really big ommission from your page is that there is no
mention of the Labour Party. The Labour movement was massivly important
in the second decade of the last century in BOTH parts of the island.
Even by the early 1920's when their influence was on the wane they were
still getting over 20% of the vote.
Unfortunatly in the 1918 the party same under severe intimidation by
Republicans not to field candidates in the south. You have got to
consider how Labour supporters voted when they did not have their own
party contesting seats. All the evidence (both anecdotal and evidential
based on subsequent elections) suggests that the vast majority (esp. in
the south) ended up voting for S.F.
This puts a completly different shading on the ACTUAL level of support
for S.F., and consequently on the percentage who favoured total
separation from the rest of the British Isles. One of the more accurate
projections I've seen suggests that in 1918 about 30-35% supported
separation, about 30% wanted continuation of the existing union (these
were not just in Northern Ireland as for Unionists in the south clearly
shows. The balance of 35%-40% were in favour of greater self-
detemination either on a partitioned or all-island basis.
Well done nevertheless,
Keith
In article <91q0bl$l67$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
David Boothroyd
pa...@home.ie (Paul Linehan) wrote:> Nicholas Whyte
In all these cases the same candidate was elected for two
constituencies. If they had wanted to take their seat they would have
had to choose which to sit for, but as all the Sinn Feiners held to the
abstentionist policy they were able to continue.
Another point to note is that all the 'Labour' candidates in Belfast at
this election were unofficial - they were candidates of the Labour
Representative Committee, which later reformed as the Belfast Labour
Party and even later became the Northern Ireland Labour Party.
Affiliation to the Labour Party in London was still several years away
in 1918.
Incidentally the details of the STV vote transfers in Dublin University
in the 1918 election does not appear to have been published anywhere
(except in some contemporary newspapers). I have a copy though.
Paul Linehan
supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> With 25 seats uncontested, it's fair to say that not only do we not
> know the level of suppot for SF, we do not know the full level of
> support for ANY party. It would help to show what level of support SF
> would have needed in the 25 constituencies to get an overall majority
> (my my reckoning it would be over 70%). From this (and subsequent
> elections in these constituences), you can clearly show that the
> majority of the people of the island did not support S.F.
Are you *_REALLY_* that stupid?
SF would have only needed 30000 votes to get an overall majority.
Given that a ballpark figure for a good Shinner seat victory in
contested seats was 10000, they would have only needed votes from 3 of
the 25 uncontested seats.
You *_do_* know that the reason that they were uncontested is that
they were Shinner bastions - or do you think that it was a cunning
plot by Unionists to hand seats to the Shinners?
You are just making a laughing stock of yourself by trying to pretend
that the majority of people on the island (and the vast majority of
the Irish people on the island) didn't support SF in the 1918
election.
Paul...
Nicholas Whyte
supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> Sorry Nick,
> But there are a few issues with this. The last time the island voted
> was the European elections in June 1999 NOT 1994.
The last time the whole island voted *on the same day* was in 1994. In
1999 the North voted on Thursday 10 June and the South on Friday 11
June.
> You mention the referenda on the "Good Friday Agreement". Firstly the
> official title does not include any reference to "Good Friday".
> Secondly, you fail to mention that while the people of N.I. voted on
> the full Agreement, the people of the Republic voted on two issues
> only; 1: Changing the terms of articles 2+3 in relation to this
> country's claim to N.I.
> 2: Allowing the government to take part in cross-boarder authorities.
> The people of the Republic DID NOT vote on ythe whole Agreement.
Mere pedantry. It's quite clear that *politically* the effect of the
1998 referendum votes, North and South, was to ratify the agreement
popularly known as the "Good Friday Agreement"; had the people of the
Republic failed to ratify the Agreement, it would have fallen (at least
in that form). Their approval was as you point out legally necessary to
set up the institutions of governent, but I personally believe that
that the 1998 votes are the closest we are going to get to an "act of
self-determination" by the people of the whole island, certainly closer
than was the 1918 election.
> With 25 seats uncontested, it's fair to say that not only do we not
> know the level of suppot for SF, we do not know the full level of
> support for ANY party. It would help to show what level of support SF
> would have needed in the 25 constituencies to get an overall majority
> (my my reckoning it would be over 70%). From this (and subsequent
> elections in these constituences), you can clearly show that the
> majority of the people of the island did not support S.F.
It's a difficult question to answer, because we don't have figures for
the electorates, let alone the likey turnouts, in the uncontested 25.
An estimate would go as follows:
Total votes cast in 80 contested constituencies: 1015515
Theoretical total of votes that might have been cast in 25 uncontested
constituencies: 1015515/80*25 = 317348
Theoretical total of votes cast in all 105 constituencies:
1015515+317348 = 1332863
Theoretical majority of votes across whole of Ireland: 1332863/2 =
666432
SF's actual vote total in 80 contested constituencies: 476087
Extra votes needed by SF to have majority of all theoretical votes in
Ireland: 666432-476087 = 190344
Percentage of theoretical votes won in 25 uncontested constituencies
needed to be won by Sinn Fein: 190344/317348 = 59.98%
This doesn't look at all unfeasible to me; SF got more than this
percentage in 32 of the 58 contested constituencies they won.
However since the question is firmly theoretical, until someone can
come up with a rigorous academic study (and I think I do remember
seeing one once, many years ago) I don't intend to cover it on the site.
> However the really big ommission from your page is that there is no
> mention of the Labour Party. The Labour movement was massivly
important
> in the second decade of the last century in BOTH parts of the island.
> Even by the early 1920's when their influence was on the wane they
were
> still getting over 20% of the vote.
>
> Unfortunatly in the 1918 the party same under severe intimidation by
> Republicans not to field candidates in the south. You have got to
> consider how Labour supporters voted when they did not have their own
> party contesting seats. All the evidence (both anecdotal and
evidential
> based on subsequent elections) suggests that the vast majority (esp.
in
> the south) ended up voting for S.F.
Well, tough. The page as such covers the 1918 election. Labour did
dismally in the 1918 election no doubt partly for the reasons you
mention. I cover election results (including, elsewhere on the site,
the unimpressive performance of Labour in elections in the future
Northern Ireland in 1885-1910, and in Northern Ireland House of Commons
and Westminster elections since then). For what it's worth, I am not
impressed by the apologias of the Labour movement for their failure to
gain power either North or South; seems like it was everyone else's
fault but their own.
> This puts a completly different shading on the ACTUAL level of support
> for S.F., and consequently on the percentage who favoured total
> separation from the rest of the British Isles. One of the more
accurate
> projections I've seen suggests that in 1918 about 30-35% supported
> separation, about 30% wanted continuation of the existing union (these
> were not just in Northern Ireland as for Unionists in the south
clearly
> shows. The balance of 35%-40% were in favour of greater self-
> detemination either on a partitioned or all-island basis.
I think you use the word "accurate" in this paragraph as a synonym
for "agreeable"! How on earth can any projection, 82 years later, be
demonstrably "accurate" about public opinion in 1918?
Did SF have a popular majority in 1918? In terms of votes cast, no. In
terms of popular support, quite possibly. Was this a mandate for
independence for the whole island? Given the broad coalition of
interests that supported SF in 1918, probably not. If it were such a
mandate, would it be binding on the Irish people 82 years later?
Certainly not.
Public opinion changes. It's quite clear to me that whatever the nature
of Sinn Fein's support in 1918 (when I agree that there was probably
not a mandate for independence), by 1921, largely due to the actions of
the British forces, popular consent to British rule in the 26 counties
(and large chunks of the 6 counties) had completely dissolved. The 1921
Treaty was an imperfect reflection of the popular will, but as close as
one was likely to get at the time, and pretty good by the standards
being applied elsewhere in Europe at that point (look at what happened
to Hungary, for example). Times have moved on, and the 1998 Agreement
is much better than the 1921 Treaty in every respect.
> Well done nevertheless,
Well, thanks!
Nicholas
supe...@my-deja.com
pa...@home.ie (Paul Linehan) wrote:
>
>
> supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
>
> > With 25 seats uncontested, it's fair to say that not only do we not
> > know the level of suppot for SF, we do not know the full level of
> > support for ANY party. It would help to show what level of support
SF
> > would have needed in the 25 constituencies to get an overall
majority
> > (my my reckoning it would be over 70%). From this (and subsequent
> > elections in these constituences), you can clearly show that the
> > majority of the people of the island did not support S.F.
>
> Are you *_REALLY_* that stupid?
>
> SF would have only needed 30000 votes to get an overall majority.
You clearly ARE that stupid. If the other econstituencies HAD been
contested, SF would have needed to get their vote share to be
CONSIDERABLY higher than 50% to pull the total figure over 50% on an
all island basis. THINK ABOUT IT!!!!
How high that figure is, is open to debate, I believe it to be about
70%, because (and Nickolas obviously forgets this) almost all the
uncontested seats were in the rural areas where the avg. electorate
(based on he 1922 election) was considerably lower than in the rest of
the island.
>
> Given that a ballpark figure for a good Shinner seat victory in
> contested seats was 10000, they would have only needed votes from 3 of
> the 25 uncontested seats.
>
READ THIS AGAIN, THEN THINK ABOUT IT, BEFORE YOU MAKE YOURSELF LOOK
LIKE AN EVEN BIGGER TWAT.
> You *_do_* know that the reason that they were uncontested is that
> they were Shinner bastions - or do you think that it was a cunning
> plot by Unionists to hand seats to the Shinners?
>
There is no single reason why the seats were uncontests. Some were down
to intimidation. Some were unwinnable by anyone other than SF, but in
most cases it was a case that the IPP was in turmoil after WW1, and
were unable to field candidates. Can I suggest you read about Redmond
and his party before you post again on this subject.
> You are just making a laughing stock of yourself by trying to pretend
> that the majority of people on the island (and the vast majority of
> the Irish people on the island)
I'd love a definition of the difference on this one, because it soulds
amazingly like the language that the Nazis used to take away the German
nationality of minorities a couple of decades later.
> didn't support SF in the 1918
> election.
>
It's absolutly clear the majority DID NOT support SF. If you don't
belive the polls, then tell us why,
Keith
> Paul...
westprog 2000
> the majority of people on the island (and the vast majority of
> the Irish people on the island)
NB - the difference between a majority, and a vast majority - and the
people on the island, and the Irish people on the island.
How do you tell which are the Irish people? Well, religion is one way,
but that would be bigoted. Must be politics, so. IOW, the way they
vote disqualifies them from being Irish - hence, the vast majority.
Why not just say that anyone who voted the wrong way was automatically
non-Irish? That would give 100% of Irish people voting for the right
cause.
--
J/ (Looking Backward)
SOTW: "California Girls" - The Beach Boys
supe...@my-deja.com
Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> In article <91qa1c$s4p$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> > Sorry Nick,
> > But there are a few issues with this. The last time the island voted
> > was the European elections in June 1999 NOT 1994.
>
> The last time the whole island voted *on the same day* was in 1994. In
> 1999 the North voted on Thursday 10 June and the South on Friday 11
> June.
>
OK point taken.
> > You mention the referenda on the "Good Friday Agreement". Firstly
the
> > official title does not include any reference to "Good Friday".
> > Secondly, you fail to mention that while the people of N.I. voted on
> > the full Agreement, the people of the Republic voted on two issues
> > only; 1: Changing the terms of articles 2+3 in relation to this
> > country's claim to N.I.
> > 2: Allowing the government to take part in cross-boarder
authorities.
> > The people of the Republic DID NOT vote on the whole Agreement.
>
> Mere pedantry. It's quite clear that *politically* the effect of the
> 1998 referendum votes, North and South, was to ratify the agreement
> popularly known as the "Good Friday Agreement";
Popularly known by whom? Any legislation consequent to the Agreement
does not use the term "Good Friday".
> had the people of the
> Republic failed to ratify the Agreement, it would have fallen (at
least
> in that form).
Open to ebate. The Agreement only stated that the Republic was to have
a referendum on the isues outlined, it did not say the people had to
ratify it. I accept this is pedantry, but the pedantics of things like
decommissioning is why the agreement collapsed.
>Their approval was as you point out legally necessary to
> set up the institutions of governent, but I personally believe that
> that the 1998 votes are the closest we are going to get to an "act of
> self-determination" by the people of the whole island, certainly
closer
> than was the 1918 election.
>
No dispute there.
> > With 25 seats uncontested, it's fair to say that not only do we not
> > know the level of suppot for SF, we do not know the full level of
> > support for ANY party. It would help to show what level of support
SF
> > would have needed in the 25 constituencies to get an overall
majority
> > (my my reckoning it would be over 70%). From this (and subsequent
> > elections in these constituences), you can clearly show that the
> > majority of the people of the island did not support S.F.
>
> It's a difficult question to answer, because we don't have figures for
> the electorates, let alone the likey turnouts, in the uncontested 25.
> An estimate would go as follows:
You can do a good guesstimate of the size of the electorates based on
the later elections in the south.
>
> Total votes cast in 80 contested constituencies: 1015515
>
> Theoretical total of votes that might have been cast in 25 uncontested
> constituencies: 1015515/80*25 = 317348
>
> Theoretical total of votes cast in all 105 constituencies:
> 1015515+317348 = 1332863
>
> Theoretical majority of votes across whole of Ireland: 1332863/2 =
> 666432
>
> SF's actual vote total in 80 contested constituencies: 476087
>
> Extra votes needed by SF to have majority of all theoretical votes in
> Ireland: 666432-476087 = 190344
>
> Percentage of theoretical votes won in 25 uncontested constituencies
> needed to be won by Sinn Fein: 190344/317348 = 59.98%
>
Fatal error here, you have missed the fact that most of the
constituences where there was no Contest were rural constituencies, and
in those days thee was less effort to balance electorates. Do the sums
based on the 1922 figures and you'll see what I mean.
> This doesn't look at all unfeasible to me; SF got more than this
> percentage in 32 of the 58 contested constituencies they won.
>
The actual % is between 66% and 70%, and that is a much rarer feat.
> However since the question is firmly theoretical, until someone can
> come up with a rigorous academic study (and I think I do remember
> seeing one once, many years ago) I don't intend to cover it on the
site.
>
I think I recall the same thing. I think the number they were coming up
with was either 48.9% or 49.8%. I know that they had to do so real
strange stuff to get the number to exceed 50%.
> > However the really big ommission from your page is that there is no
> > mention of the Labour Party. The Labour movement was massivly
> important
> > in the second decade of the last century in BOTH parts of the
island.
> > Even by the early 1920's when their influence was on the wane they
> were
> > still getting over 20% of the vote.
> >
> > Unfortunatly in the 1918 the party same under severe intimidation by
> > Republicans not to field candidates in the south. You have got to
> > consider how Labour supporters voted when they did not have their
own
> > party contesting seats. All the evidence (both anecdotal and
> evidential
> > based on subsequent elections) suggests that the vast majority (esp.
> in
> > the south) ended up voting for S.F.
>
> Well, tough. The page as such covers the 1918 election. Labour did
> dismally in the 1918 election no doubt partly for the reasons you
> mention. I cover election results (including, elsewhere on the site,
> the unimpressive performance of Labour in elections in the future
> Northern Ireland in 1885-1910, and in Northern Ireland House of
Commons
> and Westminster elections since then).
Aha two things here. Labour doid not Contest the 1918 election in the
south. In the 192 election they got over 20%, if this is not worthy of
a mention, then there's a big gap on the page. As for N.I., after the
south left the U.K., Labour in N.I. became dominated by Catholics
(gradually at first). Back in 1918, Labour in N.I. was a much more
religeously balanced entity.
>
> > This puts a completly different shading on the ACTUAL level of
support
> > for S.F., and consequently on the percentage who favoured total
> > separation from the rest of the British Isles. One of the more
> accurate
> > projections I've seen suggests that in 1918 about 30-35% supported
> > separation, about 30% wanted continuation of the existing union
(these
> > were not just in Northern Ireland as for Unionists in the south
> clearly
> > shows. The balance of 35%-40% were in favour of greater self-
> > detemination either on a partitioned or all-island basis.
>
> I think you use the word "accurate" in this paragraph as a synonym
> for "agreeable"! How on earth can any projection, 82 years later, be
> demonstrably "accurate" about public opinion in 1918?
Well the pro-union figure is already up around the 30%, and that before
you consider how Unionist candidates were intimidated into withdrawing
from Unionists bastions like Clontarf (Which had return a Unionist just
a few years earlier).
>
> Did SF have a popular majority in 1918? In terms of votes cast, no.
Agreed.
> In
> terms of popular support, quite possibly.
Not when you consider the Labour vote.
> Was this a mandate for
> independence for the whole island? Given the broad coalition of
> interests that supported SF in 1918, probably not.
Agreed.
> If it were such a
> mandate, would it be binding on the Irish people 82 years later?
> Certainly not.
>
Absolutly.
> Public opinion changes. It's quite clear to me that whatever the
nature
> of Sinn Fein's support in 1918 (when I agree that there was probably
> not a mandate for independence), by 1921, largely due to the actions
of
> the British forces, popular consent to British rule in the 26 counties
> (and large chunks of the 6 counties) had completely dissolved. The
1921
> Treaty was an imperfect reflection of the popular will, but as close
as
> one was likely to get at the time, and pretty good by the standards
> being applied elsewhere in Europe at that point (look at what happened
> to Hungary, for example).
I wouldn't necessarily agreed with al of this but the one thing that
everyone can agree on is that the Treaty had the support of the
majority of the people in both countries. This cannot be disputed by
anyone.
> Times have moved on, and the 1998 Agreement
> is much better than the 1921 Treaty in every respect.
>
Except of course that it failed within two years and had to be
superceeded by the Agreement signed by Cowan and Mandelson, which may
not have had a popular mandate that the Belfast Agreement had but at
least it didn't have the same hype or deceit around it. Whether that
Agrement works or (my suspicion) fails within the next few months is
open to debate. Come back this time next year!
Keith
David Boothroyd
Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> In article <91qa1c$s4p$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> > With 25 seats uncontested, it's fair to say that not only do we not
> > know the level of suppot for SF, we do not know the full level of
> > support for ANY party. It would help to show what level of support
SF
> > would have needed in the 25 constituencies to get an overall
majority
> > (my my reckoning it would be over 70%). From this (and subsequent
> > elections in these constituences), you can clearly show that the
> > majority of the people of the island did not support S.F.
>
> It's a difficult question to answer, because we don't have figures for
> the electorates, let alone the likey turnouts, in the uncontested 25.
We certainly do have figures for the electorates: They were published
in several contemporary books. I'll have a look tonight.
The official reason for the Irish Labour Party not contesting the 1918
election was that it was time for Ireland to determine its future
status as a nation. That is one of those reasons that makes one think
the real reason was that most of the voters the party was hoping to
attract were intending to vote Sinn Fein. If Labour was strong they
would have insisted on voting Labour.
If there was a substantial Labour vote in Ireland in 1918, there would
have been unofficial candidates; there were none. Ireland was in any
case hard going for the Labour Party: unlike Britain there were not
many large industries and areas dominated by one industry, and most of
the working class were in agricultural areas. The Irish Labour Party
had only been formed in 1912.
Nicholas Whyte
supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> In article <91qh18$1qb$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> > Total votes cast in 80 contested constituencies: 1015515
> >
> > Theoretical total of votes that might have been cast in 25
uncontested
> > constituencies: 1015515/80*25 = 317348
> >
> > Theoretical total of votes cast in all 105 constituencies:
> > 1015515+317348 = 1332863
> >
> > Theoretical majority of votes across whole of Ireland: 1332863/2 =
> > 666432
> >
> > SF's actual vote total in 80 contested constituencies: 476087
> >
> > Extra votes needed by SF to have majority of all theoretical votes
in
> > Ireland: 666432-476087 = 190344
> >
> > Percentage of theoretical votes won in 25 uncontested constituencies
> > needed to be won by Sinn Fein: 190344/317348 = 59.98%
> >
>
> Fatal error here, you have missed the fact that most of the
> constituences where there was no Contest were rural constituencies,
and
> in those days thee was less effort to balance electorates. Do the sums
> based on the 1922 figures and you'll see what I mean.
I had a look at the figures available to me for the 1918 election. (for
those coming in in the middle of this, they are on the Web at
http://explorers.whyte.com/1918.htm ) I did make one mistake in the
above calculation: there were actually only 78 contested
*constituencies* since Cork City and Dublin University were two-
seaters. One should probably not include Cork city or the three
University constituencies in the calculation anyway, since they were
rather atypical in size.
The 25 uncontested constituencies were: Carlow; Cavan East; Cavan West;
Clare East; Clare West; Cork county East; Cork county Mid; Cork county
North; Cork county North-East; Cork county South; Cork county South-
East; Cork county West; Galway East; Kerry East; Kerry North; Kerry
South; Kerry West; Kilkenny North; King's County; Limerick City;
Limerick county West; Mayo South; Roscommon North; Tipperary Mid;
Tipperary North. Unquestionably all rural apart from Limerick City.
Of the 74 single-seat territorial constituencies contested in 1918, the
average number of votes cast was 13218.
There were nine where the votes cast were fewer than 10,000, as
follows: Waterford city (urban, 9346); Dublin city Clontarf (urban,
9202); Mayo North (rural, 9190); Meath South (rural, 9051); Kildare
North (rural, 8701); Kildare South (rural, 8649); Dublin city St
James's (urban, 7812); Wicklow West (rural, 7609) and Armagh South
(rural, 4424 - which looks absurdly low). So three of the nine single-
seat territorial constituencies with the lowest turnout in 1918 were
urban.
The top nine single-seat territorial constituencies in terms of turnout
in 1918 were all rural. These were Louth (21285), Leitrim (20807),
Queen's County (19932), Tyrone South (18565), Tyrone North-East
(18342), Tyrone North-West (18138), Wexford North (17351), Waterford
county (17107), and Wexford South (16940).
So on the face of it, I don't see evidence from the 1918 election at
least that rural constituencies were much smaller then urban ones; I
tried doing averages but got lost in the detail, however my suspicion
is that there's only a few hundred in it.
> > This doesn't look at all unfeasible to me; SF got more than this
> > percentage in 32 of the 58 contested constituencies they won.
> >
>
> The actual % is between 66% and 70%, and that is a much rarer feat.
Revising my projections as follows:
Average number of votes cast in the 74 single-seat territorial
constituencies contested in 1918 was 13218.07.
Likely total of votes cast in 25 uncontested constituencies had they
been contested: 13218.07*25 = 330452 to nearest whole number.
Theoretical total of votes cast in all 103 constituencies for 105 MPs:
1015515+330452 = 1345967
Theoretical majority of votes across whole of Ireland: 1345967/2 =
672983 rounding up.
SF's actual vote total in 78 contested constituencies electing 80 MPs:
476087
Extra votes needed by SF to have majority of all theoretical votes in
Ireland: 672983-476087 = 196896
Percentage of theoretical votes won in 25 uncontested constituencies
needed to be won by Sinn Fein: 196896/330452 = 59.58%, not very
different from my first calculation.
Number of constituencies where SF vote exceeded that percentage: 35
(including Cork City and National University).
Median SF vote in the 45 contested single-seat territorial
constituencies which they won: 67.5%, rather higher than 59.58% and
right in the middle of the 66%-70% range that you describe as "a much
rarer feat".
Actually if you want to bump up the required SF percentage to 66% of
the vote (still less than their median vote in the contested
constituencies they won), you have to reduce the average theoretical
turnout in each of the 25 uncontested constituencies to 7917, ie less
than all but three of the 74 actually contested single-seat
constituencies. Now it's possible that the 25 uncontested
constituencies happened to have unusually low electorates, but I remain
to be convinced. No doubt David Boothroyd will settle this one.
> > However since the question is firmly theoretical, until someone can
> > come up with a rigorous academic study (and I think I do remember
> > seeing one once, many years ago) I don't intend to cover it on the
> site.
> >
>
> I think I recall the same thing. I think the number they were coming
up
> with was either 48.9% or 49.8%. I know that they had to do so real
> strange stuff to get the number to exceed 50%.
Show me the reference.
> Aha two things here. Labour doid not Contest the 1918 election in the
> south. In the 192 election they got over 20%, if this is not worthy of
> a mention, then there's a big gap on the page. As for N.I., after the
> south left the U.K., Labour in N.I. became dominated by Catholics
> (gradually at first). Back in 1918, Labour in N.I. was a much more
> religeously balanced entity.
I guess the "192" election is the 1923 election (where there were also
a number of uncontested rural seats which would certainly have
depressed the overall Labour percentage). When, if ever, I write
something about the later Dail elections I will of course cover the
Labour party's performance in those elections. It is not a priority for
me right now; keeping relatively current with Northern Ireland
elections, with occasional forays afield in time and space, is enough
for me. If you want a web-site that covers the 1923 election, why not
write one yourself?
I am rather surprised by your comment that Labour in N.I. became
dominated by Catholics, because the leading personalities I associate
with the NILP - David Bleakley, Harry Midgeley, Vivian Simpson - were
or are Protestants. In any case it has nothing to do with the 1918
election.
supe...@my-deja.com
> in several contemporary books. I'll have a look tonight.
>
Excellent, can we have them for ALL constituncies as turn-out also
needs to be considered.
Who would have insisted on voting Labour? The voters wern't given a
choice in the south because the party withdrew due (mainly) to
intimidation. Where the intimidation didn't work and Labour did put
candidates forward (in what became N.I.), it did quite well getting
between 17% and 26%. Given that the Labour movement was stronger in the
south than in the north, I'm being quite conservative saying that the
party would have attracted 20% on an all island basis.
>
> If there was a substantial Labour vote in Ireland in 1918, there would
> have been unofficial candidates; there were none.
In normal circumstances maybe, but remember the era, and what was going
on here, intimidation of ALL non-republican candidates was rife.
Ireland was in any
> case hard going for the Labour Party: unlike Britain there were not
> many large industries and areas dominated by one industry, and most of
> the working class were in agricultural areas. The Irish Labour Party
> had only been formed in 1912.
>
The Labour Party I'm refferring to is the Irish Labour Party, which
achieved >20% at the next election in this country only 4 years later,
Keith
Nicholas Whyte
Nicholas Whyte <nwh...@my-deja.com> wrote:
> So on the face of it, I don't see evidence from the 1918 election at
> least that rural constituencies were much smaller then urban ones; I
> tried doing averages but got lost in the detail, however my suspicion
> is that there's only a few hundred in it.
Sorted - if the urban constituencies are Dublin, Belfast, Waterford, and
Londonderry (Cork excluded as a two-seater, Limerick uncontested) then
the average turnout for those 18 seats is 12496, compared to an average
for the 56 rural seats of 13450.
David Boothroyd
supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> In article <91qmj3$76t$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> > The official reason for the Irish Labour Party not contesting the
1918
> > election was that it was time for Ireland to determine its future
> > status as a nation. That is one of those reasons that makes one
think
> > the real reason was that most of the voters the party was hoping to
> > attract were intending to vote Sinn Fein. If Labour was strong they
> > would have insisted on voting Labour.
>
> Who would have insisted on voting Labour? The voters wern't given a
> choice in the south because the party withdrew due (mainly) to
> intimidation.
The party didn't so much 'withdraw' as decide not to fight the election.
To withdraw it would have had to have been intending to fight.
> Where the intimidation didn't work and Labour did put
> candidates forward (in what became N.I.), it did quite well getting
> between 17% and 26%.
That was a completely different movement. The Labour Representative
Committee had no connection to the Irish Labour Party.
> Given that the Labour movement was stronger in the
> south than in the north, I'm being quite conservative saying that the
> party would have attracted 20% on an all island basis.
Saying that the Irish Labour Party would have polled 20% if Sinn Fein
had not stood is a bit like saying that if you had four legs, you would
be a dog. The fact is that Sinn Fein was so massively popular among
the sort of voters who might have voted Labour that it was in no
position to stand.
> > Ireland was in any
> > case hard going for the Labour Party: unlike Britain there were not
> > many large industries and areas dominated by one industry, and most
of
> > the working class were in agricultural areas. The Irish Labour Party
> > had only been formed in 1912.
> >
>
> The Labour Party I'm refferring to is the Irish Labour Party, which
> achieved >20% at the next election in this country only 4 years later,
But this was a Republican party!
Nicholas Whyte
David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> In article <3a40985a...@news.esat.net>,
> pa...@home.ie (Paul Linehan) wrote:> Nicholas Whyte
> <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> >
> > > I have published a first go at a results page for the 1918 general
> > > election in Ireland on the Northern Ireland Elections site at
> > > http://explorers.whyte.com/1918.htm
> >
> > side - typo? two different people? stood twice?
> > Tyrone North West and Cavan East.
> >
> > Oh oh, looked again. Seems that Eamon de Valera and Liam Mellows
also
> > stood twice or had sons with the same name or......?
>
> In all these cases the same candidate was elected for two
> constituencies. If they had wanted to take their seat they would have
> had to choose which to sit for, but as all the Sinn Feiners held to
the
> abstentionist policy they were able to continue.
Perhaps, David, you can tell us the last time someone was elected for
more than one seat in a UK general election? I know that there was one
independent Unionist returned for both West and South Belfast for the NI
House of Commons in 1925...
> Incidentally the details of the STV vote transfers in Dublin
University
> in the 1918 election does not appear to have been published anywhere
> (except in some contemporary newspapers). I have a copy though.
Will you publish them?
Nicholas
--
Nicholas Whyte, Centre for European Policy Studies
CEPS web-site: http://www.ceps.be/
Northern Ireland elections site: http://explorers.whyte.com/
mmcdon
For the most part I've been sitting back and laughing at the thread as
Keith, with his usual mixture of pedantry, inaccuracy, bias and fallacy,
attempts to squabble with some big-league election nerds (sorry Nicholas
and David) about election trivia.
Most of his assertions have been thoroughly dealt with already, but nobody
seems to have picked up on this little gem:
supe...@my-deja.com wrote in article <91qign$3a1$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>...
> > You *_do_* know that the reason that they were uncontested is that
> > they were Shinner bastions - or do you think that it was a cunning
> > plot by Unionists to hand seats to the Shinners?
> >
>
> There is no single reason why the seats were uncontests. Some were down
> to intimidation. Some were unwinnable by anyone other than SF, but in
> most cases it was a case that the IPP was in turmoil after WW1, and
> were unable to field candidates. Can I suggest you read about Redmond
> and his party before you post again on this subject.
The uncontested seats included the seven rural Cork constituencies, two in
Tipperary, four in Kerry, two in Limerick and two in Clare, along with one
each in Galway and Mayo. Are you seriously suggesting that these areas
would not have returned big Sinn Fein majorities?
As for intimidation, that particular line amuses me somewhat. Sinn Fein was
fighting the election with 1,300 of its activists in prison, along with
most of its leaders, its director of elections and many of its candidates.
SF had its meetings banned, its manifesto censored and its election
literature suppressed. The national press was almost unanimously deeply
hostile to the party. Meanwhile the election was being run by appointees of
the British government. Yet we have the spectacle of Keith ranting about
Sinn Fein intimidating its opponents. What would you call the above?
Is mise le meas,
Brian Cahill
supe...@my-deja.com
I would say ALL would have returned SF MPs, BUT to say that they would
have been big SF majorities is pure speculation. Let's not forget there
are still parts of Cork where FG still outpoll FF, suggesting that a
IPP vs SF battle could have been a very close Contest. It's also worth
remembering that Cork was the county with the 4th highest Protestant
population at that time. Not exactly prime SF pickings!
>
> As for intimidation, that particular line amuses me somewhat. Sinn
Fein was
> fighting the election with 1,300 of its activists in prison, along
with
> most of its leaders, its director of elections and many of its
candidates.
There are three key factors which had so far not ben mentioned in this
thread. This is the first, the second is the introduction of
conscription in Ireland less than 12 months before the election, and
the third is the execution of the leaders of the 1916 rebellion. ALL
were key events leading up to the vote. ALL were unique to the 1918
election, and ALL favored S.F.
The poiint you mention regarding inprisoned candidates being
disadvantaged is nonsense. Do you forget Bobby Sands? Or the 1981
election in this country?
Keith
> Is mise le meas,
> Brian Cahill
>
supe...@my-deja.com
Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> In article <91qoaj$8qq$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> Nicholas Whyte <nwh...@my-deja.com> wrote:
> > So on the face of it, I don't see evidence from the 1918 election at
> > least that rural constituencies were much smaller then urban ones; I
> > tried doing averages but got lost in the detail, however my
suspicion
> > is that there's only a few hundred in it.
>
> Sorted - if the urban constituencies are Dublin, Belfast, Waterford,
and
> Londonderry (Cork excluded as a two-seater, Limerick uncontested) then
> the average turnout for those 18 seats is 12496, compared to an
average
> for the 56 rural seats of 13450.
>
Is this average of electorate of average vote cast? If it's average of
electorate, I withsraw my point regarding the urban/rural difference,
Keith
supe...@my-deja.com
David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> In article <91qoeg$8sq$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> > In article <91qmj3$76t$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> > David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> > > The official reason for the Irish Labour Party not contesting the
> 1918
> > > election was that it was time for Ireland to determine its future
> > > status as a nation. That is one of those reasons that makes one
> think
> > > the real reason was that most of the voters the party was hoping
to
> > > attract were intending to vote Sinn Fein. If Labour was strong
they
> > > would have insisted on voting Labour.
> >
> > Who would have insisted on voting Labour? The voters wern't given a
> > choice in the south because the party withdrew due (mainly) to
> > intimidation.
>
> The party didn't so much 'withdraw' as decide not to fight the
election.
> To withdraw it would have had to have been intending to fight.
They HAD intended to Contest the election, read the party's own
history. IIRC, "withdrew" is the word THEY use.
>
> > Where the intimidation didn't work and Labour did put
> > candidates forward (in what became N.I.), it did quite well getting
> > between 17% and 26%.
>
> That was a completely different movement. The Labour Representative
> Committee had no connection to the Irish Labour Party.
They were part of the Labour/Trade Union movement which became a
political force in these islands in the first quarter of the last
century. I fully appreciate they were not the same party, but by and
large they would have appealing to the same "working class"
constituency.
>
> > Given that the Labour movement was stronger in the
> > south than in the north, I'm being quite conservative saying that
the
> > party would have attracted 20% on an all island basis.
>
> Saying that the Irish Labour Party would have polled 20% if Sinn Fein
> had not stood is a bit like saying that if you had four legs, you
would
> be a dog.
Not at all. Look at ther vote in the next election. The party was
ALREADY a force in the 1910's in Ireland. Read about Larkin, the Dublin
lock-outs etc.
> The fact is that Sinn Fein was so massively popular among
> the sort of voters who might have voted Labour that it was in no
> position to stand.
>
Yes when in 1923 voters were given the same choice between both
factions of SF and Labour, Labour STILL gets over 20%. You don't even
have to go that far to see aq more realistic level of the support for
SF, Just check out the local election results in 1919.
> > > Ireland was in any
> > > case hard going for the Labour Party: unlike Britain there were
not
> > > many large industries and areas dominated by one industry, and
most
> of
> > > the working class were in agricultural areas. The Irish Labour
Party
> > > had only been formed in 1912.
> > >
> >
> > The Labour Party I'm refferring to is the Irish Labour Party, which
> > achieved >20% at the next election in this country only 4 years
later,
>
> But this was a Republican party!
>
Republican as in anti-Monarchist (but that also describes me!). It was
a party which supported the Treaty. Trying to say that all the Labour
supporters would have ignored the party had it stood in 1918, and still
voted SF, defies reason given events before and after.
Keith
JAT
"Da/l gCais" <Da_m...@newsguy.com> wrote in message
>
> Or that Sinn Fein were *the* primary political force in Ireland and that
the
> Unionists needed to burn women alive and murder babies to gerrymander
their
> sectarian state. The legacy of that was that 'hands on' child killing
butchers
> and sex perverts got elected to parliament.
> Da/l gCais
What a load of shite. The only group in N. Ireland who burned people alive
were PIRA. Perhaps you have forgotten La Mon, or would prefer it if the rest
of the world did. As for sex perverts you seem to be getting Unionists mixed
up with Catholic priests, you republican twat!
JAT
Rebel Countess
supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> There are three key factors which had so far not ben mentioned in this
> thread. This is the first, the second is the introduction of
> conscription in Ireland less than 12 months before the election, and
> the third is the execution of the leaders of the 1916 rebellion.
Except the Countess...
Ciaran Quinn
supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
..snip
>
> Fatal error here, you have missed the fact that most of the
> constituences where there was no Contest were rural constituencies, and
> in those days thee was less effort to balance electorates. Do the sums
> based on the 1922 figures and you'll see what I mean.
With regarding to calculating SF overall % in 1918:-
If you look at the constituencies which were unopposed in 1918 and match
them against the corresponding Dail constituencies in 1923-1933 (see
http://www.took.net/elections/boundaries/revisions.html) then it appears
as if about 1/3 of the seats in what became the Free State were
unopposed (49.5/153).
If you then assume that the population of the 26 counties was double
that of the 6 (approx 3 million to 1.5 million), then SF would need an
average of 61% in the unopposed constituencies to bring their vote to
over 50%.
County U/Opposed OutOf 1921 1923 U/O by 1923 seats
seats seats
-------------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ----------------
CarlowKilkenny 2 3 4 5 3.333333333
Cavan 2 2 3 4 4
Clare 2 2 4 5 5
CorkCounty 7 7 11 13 13
Galway 1 4 7 9 2.25
Kerry 4 4 * 7 7
LaoisOffaly 1 2 4 5 2.5
Limerick 2 3 * 7 4.66666667
Mayo 1 4 8 9 2.25
Roscommon 1 2 * 4 2
Tipperary 2 4 4 7 3.5
--- -----
75 49.5 (from 153)
(* means no corresponding constituency)
I used 1923 constituencies because the boundaries were easier to map
than 1921's. The 1923 constituencies were used for 5 elections. The no.
of seats increased from 128 to 153 between 1921 and 1923.
Obviously, there is a bit of rounding taking place in the calculations
above. It does appear as if the unopposed constituencies had a similar
population on average to those that were contested and as if SF could
have won just over 50%, but no-one will ever know ...
..snip
Ciaran
--
Irish Election Database http://election.polarbears.com
Paddy Matthews
>
>In article <91qh18$1qb$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
>>
>> had the people of the
>> Republic failed to ratify the Agreement, it would have fallen (at
>least
>> in that form).
>
>Open to ebate. The Agreement only stated that the Republic was to have
>a referendum on the isues outlined, it did not say the people had to
>ratify it. I accept this is pedantry, but the pedantics of things like
>decommissioning is why the agreement collapsed.
OK, let's have an "ebate":
"If majorities of those voting in each of the referendums support this
agreement, the Governments will then introduce and support, in their respective
Parliaments, such legislation as may be necessary to give effect to all aspects
of this agreement..."
(Section on validation of the Agreement, available at
http://www.irlgov.ie/iveagh/angloirish/goodfriday/validati.htm)
Quick question: What does the word "each" mean in the sentence above?
Supplementary: Why does the sentence above refer to _each_ of the referendums
supporting the agreement, if the referendum in the Republic wasn't about the
agreement?
You were pulled up on this point at the time of the referendums. It must require
a fair old degree of stupidity on your part to keep falling into the same
elephant trap, especially when you've dug it yourself.
p.
supe...@my-deja.com
It's plain and simple. It means that each government was required to
enact the legislation once the referendums passed in each country. In
the case of the UK this was a considerable amount of lefislation, and
that doesn't include the legislation ensuing from the Patton proposals
on policiy (which as a matter of intereest the UK government WERE NOT
required to enact as part of the original Agreement).
The position in thi country ONLY required us to change articles 2+3 toi
remove the claim to N.I. and allow government minister to take part in
cross-border authorities.
HAVE A LOOK AT THE QUESTION THAT WAS ON THE BALLOT PAPER IN THE
REPUBLIC. IF SPECIFICALLY STATES WHAT ELEMENTS OF THE CONSTITUTION NEED
TO BE CHANGED RESULTING FROM HE B.A. IF WE WERE VOTING ON THE WHOLE
AGREEMENT, THEN THE REFERENDUM QUESTIONS WOULD HAVE BEN THE SAME AS IN
N.I.
It's also worth remembering that while SF camaignede for a "Yes" vote
in N.I., they DID NOT campaign for a "Yes" vote in this country. In
fact some members of the party (esp. in Cork) suggested a boycott or
even a "No" vote. They wanyed their cake AND to eat it.
In case casual observers of this n.g., think that all of this is being
pedantic, it's worth remembering that it was the details of the
Agrement that brought aboutit's collapse,
Keith
> p.
gregory....@ntlworld.com
Nicholas Whyte wrote:
>
> Median SF vote in the 45 contested single-seat territorial
> constituencies which they won: 67.5%, rather higher than 59.58% and
> right in the middle of the 66%-70% range that you describe as "a much
> rarer feat".
The NP had a pact with SF. SF was to take their seats unopposed.
Therefore it is only estimated unionist votes that count for the
southern cobstituencies as the rest were supporting a SF strategy. Who
else was there to vote for?
gregory....@ntlworld.com
Nicholas Whyte wrote:
>
> In article <91qa1c$s4p$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> > Sorry Nick,
> > But there are a few issues with this. The last time the island voted
> > was the European elections in June 1999 NOT 1994.
>
> The last time the whole island voted *on the same day* was in 1994. In
> 1999 the North voted on Thursday 10 June and the South on Friday 11
> June.
They voted for different things though. Both polls were different.
There was not a unitary poll. Nor were the voters equally empowered. The
majority Catholics were not allowed to vote as a block. The Protestants
were allowed a weighed veto in effect.
>
> Mere pedantry. It's quite clear that *politically* the effect of the
> 1998 referendum votes, North and South, was to ratify the agreement
> popularly known as the "Good Friday Agreement"; had the people of the
> Republic failed to ratify the Agreement, it would have fallen (at least
> in that form). Their approval was as you point out legally necessary to
> set up the institutions of governent, but I personally believe that
> that the 1998 votes are the closest we are going to get to an "act of
> self-determination" by the people of the whole island, certainly closer
> than was the 1918 election.
You are full of it. I know and you know that self-determination was
actually asked for by Albert Reynmolds in a meeting with John Major. The
latter made it clear that self-determination for the Irish people as a
whole was utterly out of the question and was not negotiable. You have
an agenda Nicholas which is not based on fact but on prejudice.
Nicholas Whyte
However, most of the Cork Protestants surely lived in the city (where
there were in fact more than 7000 Unionist voters) rather than in the
seven uncontested constituencies.
Anyway, having done the calculations, I am quite satisfied that the
average SF vote share in contested constituencies which they won was
much greater than the proportion they would have needed in uncontested
constituencies to have a majority of votes in the 32 counties, had all
constituencies been contested.
I don't see the relevance of today's FG vs FF division to the IPP vs SF
split in 1918. The two constituencies won by the IPP in the 26 counties
in 1918 were Waterford City and Donegal East, neither of which is an FG
stronghold today. While of course it is true that FG eventually
absorbed the remnants of IPP support there was very little of it left
by then!
> > As for intimidation, that particular line amuses me somewhat. Sinn
> Fein was
> > fighting the election with 1,300 of its activists in prison, along
> with
> > most of its leaders, its director of elections and many of its
> candidates.
>
> There are three key factors which had so far not ben mentioned in this
> thread. This is the first, the second is the introduction of
> conscription in Ireland less than 12 months before the election, and
> the third is the execution of the leaders of the 1916 rebellion. ALL
> were key events leading up to the vote. ALL were unique to the 1918
> election, and ALL favored S.F.
Indeed - so you agree that in fact it *is* likely that a majority of
voters in Ireland in 1918 would have supported SF given the chance?
> The poiint you mention regarding inprisoned candidates being
> disadvantaged is nonsense. Do you forget Bobby Sands? Or the 1981
> election in this country?
There I agree.
Nicholas
--
Nicholas Whyte, Centre for European Policy Studies
CEPS web-site: http://www.ceps.be/
Northern Ireland elections site: http://explorers.whyte.com/
Nicholas Whyte
supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> In article <91qp3e$9fg$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> > In article <91qoaj$8qq$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> > Nicholas Whyte <nwh...@my-deja.com> wrote:
> > > So on the face of it, I don't see evidence from the 1918 election
at
> > > least that rural constituencies were much smaller then urban
ones; I
> > > tried doing averages but got lost in the detail, however my
> suspicion
> > > is that there's only a few hundred in it.
> >
> > Sorted - if the urban constituencies are Dublin, Belfast, Waterford,
> and
> > Londonderry (Cork excluded as a two-seater, Limerick uncontested)
then
> > the average turnout for those 18 seats is 12496, compared to an
> average
> > for the 56 rural seats of 13450.
> >
>
> Is this average of electorate of average vote cast? If it's average of
> electorate, I withsraw my point regarding the urban/rural difference,
When I say "turnout" I mean "votes cast" rather than electorate.
But I think your point falls anyway, unless you can demonstrate that
the average likely turnout in the 25 uncontested constituencies would
have been less than 60% of the average turnout elsewhere.
Nicholas Whyte
election-at-polarbears.com wrote:
> http://www.took.net/elections/boundaries/revisions.html) then it
An interesting site, starting with http://www.took.net/elections/ and
with pleanty of room for development.
> Obviously, there is a bit of rounding taking place in the calculations
> above. It does appear as if the unopposed constituencies had a similar
> population on average to those that were contested and as if SF could
> have won just over 50%, but no-one will ever know ...
Indeed.
supe...@my-deja.com
"gregory....@ntlworld.com" <gregory....@ntlworld.com>
wrote:
>
>
> Nicholas Whyte wrote:
> >
> > In article <91qa1c$s4p$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> > supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> > > Sorry Nick,
> > > But there are a few issues with this. The last time the island
voted
> > > was the European elections in June 1999 NOT 1994.
> >
> > The last time the whole island voted *on the same day* was in 1994.
In
> > 1999 the North voted on Thursday 10 June and the South on Friday 11
> > June.
>
> They voted for different things though. Both polls were different.
Actualy Nicolas is right here. In 1994, both countries were voting to
elect members to the same representative assembly. They voted on the
same day, and (unlike 1918) everybody could vote because every seat was
contested. They were both using the same voting method of PR (before we
get into pedantics, I am aware of the minor differences that apply
beetween STV in N.I. and in this country).
> There was not a unitary poll.
There has never been a unitary poll on the island on any issue. The
closest you get is the referenda on EU (then EEC) membership.
By their nature, elections are done on a regional/constituency basis.
>Nor were the voters equally empowered. The
> majority Catholics were not allowed to vote as a block.
Why should they? We don't vote by religeon (as much as nationalists
would like to link church and civil affairs) we vote by
area/constituency.
> The Protestants
> were allowed a weighed veto in effect.
>
Actually in 1994 the Protestants were disadvantaged as the seat to
voter ratio in N.I. is lower than here.
> >
> > Mere pedantry. It's quite clear that *politically* the effect of the
> > 1998 referendum votes, North and South, was to ratify the agreement
> > popularly known as the "Good Friday Agreement"; had the people of
the
> > Republic failed to ratify the Agreement, it would have fallen (at
least
> > in that form). Their approval was as you point out legally
necessary to
> > set up the institutions of governent, but I personally believe that
> > that the 1998 votes are the closest we are going to get to an "act
of
> > self-determination" by the people of the whole island, certainly
closer
> > than was the 1918 election.
>
> You are full of it. I know and you know that self-determination was
> actually asked for by Albert Reynmolds in a meeting with John Major.
This is Albert, the famous "last of the Gomeenmen". There's no such
thing politically as "Irish people". The people of Ireland straddle two
nations. Actually if you use the current constitutional definition, the
Irish people straddle all 5 continents.
> The
> latter made it clear that self-determination for the Irish people as a
> whole was utterly out of the question and was not negotiable.
Quite right. You might as well give the people of the N.C.R. determine
their political status, in fact whjy not just let every house decide
what country it wants to belong to.
> You have
> an agenda Nicholas which is not based on fact but on prejudice.
>
And you haven't??????
At the end of the day, the present arrangement has the support of the
majority of people i both countries De facto it has the support of the
majority of the people of the island. We don't consult the vast
majority of "Irish people" living abroad on elections, referenda etc.,
so in that sense their opinion is irrelevant.
Keith
Nicholas Whyte
"gregory....@ntlworld.com" <gregory....@ntlworld.com>
wrote:
>
>
> >
> > In article <91qa1c$s4p$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> > supe...@my-deja.com wrote:
> > > Sorry Nick,
> > > But there are a few issues with this. The last time the island
voted
> > > was the European elections in June 1999 NOT 1994.
> >
> > The last time the whole island voted *on the same day* was in 1994.
In
> > 1999 the North voted on Thursday 10 June and the South on Friday 11
> > June.
>
> They voted for different things though. Both polls were different.
> There was not a unitary poll. Nor were the voters equally empowered.
The
> majority Catholics were not allowed to vote as a block. The
Protestants
> were allowed a weighed veto in effect.
There were certainly differences between the 1994 and 1918 polls.
Everyone over 18 got to vote in 1994. Only men over 21 and women over
35 got to vote in 1918. The whole of Ireland had an election in 1994.
There were 25 constituencies out of 103 where no vote took place in
1918. Sinn Fein got 46.9% of the votes cast in 1918 (not 69% as
erroneously stated on, for instance,
http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Lobby/7111/freedom.htm). In 1994
the SF share of the vote was rather lower.
Of course the similarity is that both elections were for
representatives to external bodies, 1918 for Westminster and 1994 for
the European Parliament.
Or perhaps you mean the 1998 referendum?
> > Mere pedantry. It's quite clear that *politically* the effect of the
> > 1998 referendum votes, North and South, was to ratify the agreement
> > popularly known as the "Good Friday Agreement"; had the people of
the
> > Republic failed to ratify the Agreement, it would have fallen (at
least
> > in that form). Their approval was as you point out legally
necessary to
> > set up the institutions of governent, but I personally believe that
> > that the 1998 votes are the closest we are going to get to an "act
of
> > self-determination" by the people of the whole island, certainly
closer
> > than was the 1918 election.
>
> You are full of it. I know and you know that self-determination was
> actually asked for by Albert Reynmolds in a meeting with John Major.
The
> latter made it clear that self-determination for the Irish people as a
> whole was utterly out of the question and was not negotiable. You have
> an agenda Nicholas which is not based on fact but on prejudice.
Quite unlike yours then?
Anyway I know that you have frequently posted your story about Reynolds
asking Major for "self-determination" (by which I guess you mean a
single island-wide referendum). I have never seen any other source
refer to this request, and I was reasonably close to the political
negotiations at the time. I'm not saying it didn't happen, as Reynolds
asked for many things and Major denied many of them, but I would like
to see some other evidence of it.
The question did come up of course from time to time in the 1994-96
period when I was most closely involved. I remember hearing of one
discussion on the issue where it was the Irish government's lawyers who
pointed out to SF that this might be unconstitutional under Irish law,
given that the 1937 constitution can only be amended by vote of the
electors resident in the 26 counties. I confess that this is only my
memory and I don't have a written source either. But I suppose the
Irish government finding reasons to avoid "self-determination" is not
such an interesting story from your point of view.
supe...@my-deja.com
No, not true, there was (and remains) a large Protestant population
outside the city. Don't forget that Cork was the main area for the
targetting of Protestants, in what we would now call "ethnic cleansing"
in the 1918-1922 period.
>
> Anyway, having done the calculations, I am quite satisfied that the
> average SF vote share in contested constituencies which they won was
> much greater than the proportion they would have needed in uncontested
> constituencies to have a majority of votes in the 32 counties, had all
> constituencies been contested.
>
> I don't see the relevance of today's FG vs FF division to the IPP vs
SF
> split in 1918. The two constituencies won by the IPP in the 26
counties
> in 1918 were Waterford City and Donegal East, neither of which is an
FG
> stronghold today.
Actually if tou overlay the support of SF and the IPP in 1918 over a
political map of the Republic today there is a strong correlation. The
IPP voters in 1918 tended to CnG and IPP after the south left the UK.
Regarding Waterford and Donegal there are both local issues at play.
Waterford was the base of Redmond the leader of the party until his
death just before the election. In Donegal East there was a swing from
people who might have voted SF, because their candidate had no hope.
Given a choice between the IPP and a unionist it's not difficult to
decide who'd win.
> While of course it is true that FG eventually
> absorbed the remnants of IPP support there was very little of it left
> by then!
>
The collapse had started well before 1918. As I said earlier the
executions in of the 1916 rebels and the introduction of conscription
took care of that. Let's not forget that Redmond was the main
cheerleader in the south for Irishmen to join the war effort in 1914-
1917 period.
> > > As for intimidation, that particular line amuses me somewhat. Sinn
> > Fein was
> > > fighting the election with 1,300 of its activists in prison, along
> > with
> > > most of its leaders, its director of elections and many of its
> > candidates.
> >
> > There are three key factors which had so far not ben mentioned in
this
> > thread. This is the first, the second is the introduction of
> > conscription in Ireland less than 12 months before the election, and
> > the third is the execution of the leaders of the 1916 rebellion. ALL
> > were key events leading up to the vote. ALL were unique to the 1918
> > election, and ALL favored S.F.
>
> Indeed - so you agree that in fact it *is* likely that a majority of
> voters in Ireland in 1918 would have supported SF given the chance?
>
Not at all, As I said the real level of support for SF is certainly
less than 40%. Then one thing that allcomers on this thread can agree
on is that you cannot use the 1918 election result to determine the
actual level of support for SF (or consequently other parties). I'm
atisfied to leave it at that, because that's what all the experts also
say.
The rest is down to "what ifs". What if all seats had been contested,
what if the Labour party had not withdrawn, what if there was no
intimidation (on all sides), what if many of the SF candides were not
in prision, what if the most high profile candidates had only been
allowed to stand in one seat, the list is almost endless.
For an election page, you can only state the ACTUAL result, but I
believe you owe it o your audience to at least mention what hapened
with the Labour Party i he south. You can't just dismiss the
preferences of 20% of the electorate.
Keith
Paul Linehan
Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
> There were certainly differences between the 1994 and 1918 polls.
> Everyone over 18 got to vote in 1994. Only men over 21 and women over
> 35 got to vote in 1918. The whole of Ireland had an election in 1994.
> There were 25 constituencies out of 103 where no vote took place in
> 1918. Sinn Fein got 46.9% of the votes cast in 1918 (not 69% as
> erroneously stated on, for instance,
> http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Lobby/7111/freedom.htm). In 1994
> the SF share of the vote was rather lower.
But, you would accept that there was a VERY CLEAR majority in favour
of the type of regime which we got in 1922?
This would be for the whole country BTW, not the 26 unoccupied
counties - here it would have been a clear majority in favour of a
Republic from day one.
Paul...
David Boothroyd
This one.
The last time it happened in a British constituency was 1885 IIRC -
William
Gladstone was elected for Midlothian and Leith Burghs.
> I know that there was one
> independent Unionist returned for both West and South Belfast for the
NI
> House of Commons in 1925...
This was P.J. Woods.
Dennis Canavan gets an hon. mensh. as he won his constituency seat in
Falkirk West at the 1999 Scottish Parliament elections, and also polled
enough to have won at the regional level.
> > Incidentally the details of the STV vote transfers in Dublin
> University
> > in the 1918 election does not appear to have been published anywhere
> > (except in some contemporary newspapers). I have a copy though.
>
> Will you publish them?
I meant to get them last night when I brought the electorates over but
didn't have the time. It's nothing much to write home about, but useful
for completeness' sake.
David Boothroyd
> David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> > In article <91qh18$1qb$1...@nnrp1.deja.com>,
> > We certainly do have figures for the electorates: They were
published
> > in several contemporary books. I'll have a look tonight.
>
> needs to be considered.
Constituency Population Electorate
BOROUGHS
BELFAST
Cromac 48,537 21,673
Duncairn 44,080 19,085
Falls 37,749 15,756
Ormeau 35,257 16,343
Pottinger 39,173 17,084
St. Anne's 40,430 18,693
Shankill 50,467 22,971
Victoria 47,260 19,494
Woodvale 43,994 19,802
CORK CITY (2) 102,435 45,017
DUBLIN CITY
Clontarf 32,051 14,588
College Green 50,665 21,414
Dublin Harbour 47,461 19,520
St. James's 35,423 13,121
St. Michan's 45,500 17,642
St. Patrick's 47,691 18,785
St. Stephen's Green 46,011 19,759
LIMERICK CITY 47,246 17,121
LONDONDERRY CITY 40,780 16,736
WATERFORD CITY 28,881 12,063
COUNTIES
ANTRIM
East Antrim 53,700 24,798
Mid Antrim 44,405 18,032
North Antrim 43,487 19,110
South Antrim 52,272 23,235
ARMAGH
Mid Armagh 39,495 17,339
North Armagh 46,048 19,529
South Armagh 34,748 15,905
CARLOW 35,253 16,133
CAVAN
East Cavan 44,215 21,148
West Cavan 46,958 22,270
CLARE
East Clare 52,225 23,511
West Clare 52,007 21,674
CORK COUNTY
East Cork 43,264 19,022
Mid Cork 41,226 16,638
North Cork 42,744 17,949
North-East Cork 44,272 18,239
South Cork 38,941 17,593
South-East Cork 39,634 17,419
West Cork 39,588 16,659
DONEGAL
East Donegal 39,643 16,015
North Donegal 41,065 17,538
South Donegal 41,490 16,894
West Donegal 46,339 19,296
DOWN
East Down 39,196 17,846
Mid Down 34,942 17,195
North Down 38,713 18,399
South Down 46,521 18,708
West Down 44,931 17,997
DUBLIN COUNTY
North County Dublin 49,345 19,799
Pembroke 38,224 17,698
Rathmines 43,277 18,841
South County Dublin 41,548 17,829
FERMANAGH
North Fermanagh 31,104 14,496
South Fermanagh 30,732 13,962
GALWAY
Connemara 56,054 24,956
East Galway 41,235 17,777
North Galway 44,390 21,036
South Galway 40,545 18,507
KERRY
East Kerry 39,601 17,222
North Kerry 37,777 17,600
South Kerry 38,740 16,835
West Kerry 43,573 18,853
KILDARE
North Kildare 30,630 13,274
South Kildare 35,997 13,925
KILKENNY
North Kilkenny 38,024 16,113
South Kilkenny 36,938 16,410
KING'S COUNTY 56,832 25,702
LEITRIM 63,582 30,079
LIMERICK COUNTY
East Limerick 47,514 21,095
West Limerick 48,309 22,562
LONDONDERRY COUNTY
North Londonderry 52,957 21,306
South Londonderry 46,888 21,199
LONGFORD 43,820 20,449
LOUTH 63,665 29,176
MAYO
East Mayo 46,729 21,635
North Mayo 47,854 21,212
South Mayo 48,963 21,567
West Mayo 51,118 21,667
MEATH
North Meath 33,034 14,716
South Meath 32,057 14,716
MONAGHAN
North Monaghan 36,512 16,175
South Monaghan 34,943 16,164
QUEEN'S COUNTY 55,628 26,063
ROSCOMMON
North Roscommon 44,546 21,258
South Roscommon 47,302 22,093
SLIGO
North Sligo 42,595 18,448
South Sligo 39,731 18,003
TIPPERARY
East Tipperary 41,414 16,232
Mid Tipperary 38,294 17,458
North Tipperary 36,608 16,455
South Tipperary 36,117 14,716
TYRONE
North-East Tyrone 47,358 23,023
North-West Tyrone 47,240 22,182
South Tyrone 48,067 22,465
WATERFORD COUNTY 57,432 24,439
WESTMEATH 56,326 24,014
WEXFORD
North Wexford 50,690 23,022
South Wexford 51,583 23,168
WICKLOW
East Wicklow 34,570 15,241
West Wicklow 26,141 11,673
UNIVERSITIES
DUBLIN UNIVERSITY (2) 4,541
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND 3,819
QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY OF BELFAST 2,039
Source: Return showing for each parliamentary constituency in the
United Kingdom, the number of parliamentary and local government
electors on the register compiled under the Representation of the
People Act, 1918 (HC 1918 xix (138)) 944-7
The same figures are given in 'Parliamentary Election Results in
Ireland 1801-1922' by B.M. Walker, the Liberal Year Book for 1925,
and several other contemporary publications.
Incidentally I came across a strange book in the library yesterday.
It appears to be the Irish government's response to the boundary in 1923
which argues strongly in favour of the anti-partitionist line. It was
apparently the product of a committee chaired by Kevin Roantree O'Shiel
who was an unsuccessful Sinn Fein candidate in two northern
constituencies
in 1918 and for one seat at the Northern Ireland House of Commons
election
of 1921.
The interesting thing is that it purports to show, at electoral division
level (ie ward level), the number of voters in the six counties of
Northern Ireland who were 'in favour of the Belfast Parliament' and
those in favour of an all-Ireland Parliament. I wonder where these
statistics came from? Possibly the 1921 census, assuming all Roman
Catholics were nationalists, and all protestants and presbyterians were
unionists?
supe...@my-deja.com
pa...@home.ie (Paul Linehan) wrote:
>
>
> Nicholas Whyte <Expl...@Whyte.com> wrote:
>
> > There were certainly differences between the 1994 and 1918 polls.
> > Everyone over 18 got to vote in 1994. Only men over 21 and women
over
> > 35 got to vote in 1918. The whole of Ireland had an election in
1994.
> > There were 25 constituencies out of 103 where no vote took place in
> > 1918. Sinn Fein got 46.9% of the votes cast in 1918 (not 69% as
> > erroneously stated on, for instance,
> > http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/Lobby/7111/freedom.htm). In
1994
> > the SF share of the vote was rather lower.
>
> But, you would accept that there was a VERY CLEAR majority in favour
> of the type of regime which we got in 1922?
>
I don't think that anybody disputes that by 1922 the majority of the
people in both countries had got what they wanted. Certainly in the
IFS, the majority were in favour of the Treaty by a factor of 3-1.
There were minorities in the south who wanted an independent republic,
and also those that wanted the maintenance of the U.K. Whether people
in 1918 would have supported what was agreed in 1921 is anyone's guess.
> This would be for the whole country BTW, not the 26 unoccupied
> counties - here it would have been a clear majority in favour of a
> Republic from day one.
>
The "whole country" in 1918, was the U.K. (inc. Britain) but if you are
refferring to the island of Ireland the answer is "no", in the south
there was no majority in favour of a Republic until a decade later.
Obviously the people in N.I. were not entitled to a say in this
country's affairs once we left the U.K.,
I think Nick's point regarding the referenda which ensued from the
signing of the Belfast Agreement being the best (not to mention most
recent) measure of the opinion of the people of both countries is a
valid one. However just as FF worked to overwrite the Treaty by
democratic means in the 1930's and 40's, it is fully valid for the DUP
etc. to work democratically to achieve a better arrangement for the
people of N.I.
Keith
Keith
> Paul...
Nicholas Whyte
David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> Constituency Population Electorate
>
> BOROUGHS
average electorate 17,982 (excluding Cork)
> COUNTIES
average electorate 19,257
average electorate in 25 uncontested single-member seats: 18,991
average electorate in 74 contested single-member seats: 19,020
So we can comprehensively lay to rest the idea that the uncontested
seats had much smaller electorates than the contested ones. The actual
difference is 29, rather less than 1 in 600.
May I use these figures on my site, with attribution?
> Incidentally I came across a strange book in the library yesterday.
> It appears to be the Irish government's response to the boundary in
1923
> which argues strongly in favour of the anti-partitionist line. It was
> apparently the product of a committee chaired by Kevin Roantree
O'Shiel
> who was an unsuccessful Sinn Fein candidate in two northern
> constituencies
> in 1918 and for one seat at the Northern Ireland House of Commons
> election
> of 1921.
>
> The interesting thing is that it purports to show, at electoral
division
> level (ie ward level), the number of voters in the six counties of
> Northern Ireland who were 'in favour of the Belfast Parliament' and
> those in favour of an all-Ireland Parliament. I wonder where these
> statistics came from? Possibly the 1921 census, assuming all Roman
> Catholics were nationalists, and all protestants and presbyterians
were
> unionists?
There was no 1921 census in Ireland! I suspect the figures used are for
the 1920 local government elections, which were carried out by STV in
all counties. The 1911 census figures were also widely used at the time.
Nicholas
--
Nicholas Whyte, Centre for European Policy Studies
CEPS web-site: http://www.ceps.be/
Northern Ireland elections site: http://explorers.whyte.com/
supe...@my-deja.com
"Rather"???? Considerably. By 1994 the party know as "Sinn Fein" in
1918 had become the Workers Party which had a disaster in the 1994
election despite IIRC fielding candidates in both N.I. and the
Republic.
Please don't ever confuse the party that used the name in 1918 (and
much later) with the faction that uses it today. The are realms of
evolution between the two groups. Don't forget that as well as the
current Sinn Féin, the 1918 party also spawned (directly) Fine Gael and
Fianna Fáil and (indirectly) Democratic Left and the P.D.s. ALL could
with equal degress of justification lay claim to be the direct
ancestors of the party that fought the 1918 election. HOWEVER, if you
want to be accurate, the only direct link still existing in an unbroken
form from that party are the Workers Party.
> Anyway I know that you have frequently posted your story about
Reynolds
> asking Major for "self-determination" (by which I guess you mean a
> single island-wide referendum). I have never seen any other source
> refer to this request, and I was reasonably close to the political
> negotiations at the time. I'm not saying it didn't happen, as Reynolds
> asked for many things and Major denied many of them, but I would like
> to see some other evidence of it.
So would I, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Reynolds lived in a
fantasyland on many issues (N.I. was certainly not the worst mistake he
made in his brief period in power). Talk to civil servants who worked
in the FF/goverment after 1992. Some have some real howlers to tell!
>
> The question did come up of course from time to time in the 1994-96
> period when I was most closely involved. I remember hearing of one
> discussion on the issue where it was the Irish government's lawyers
who
> pointed out to SF that this might be unconstitutional under Irish law,
> given that the 1937 constitution can only be amended by vote of the
> electors resident in the 26 counties. I confess that this is only my
> memory and I don't have a written source either. But I suppose the
> Irish government finding reasons to avoid "self-determination" is not
> such an interesting story from your point of view.
>
Actually for what it's worth I believe having a referendum in both
countries would not have been unconstitutional, HOWEVER the government
acting on the outcome of such a vote would almost certainly have been,
as you would have been unable to determine which votes were cast in
which country. A person in the south could justifiably claim that the
result would have bene different in a vote in this jurastiction alone.
That would mean you would HAVE to have had separate referenda with
possibly the same question. Then if a majority in N.I. went one way and
a majority in this country went the other, you'd be back to square one,
as provisions in the Anglo Irish Agreement meant that the government
here was duty bound to respect the wishes of the majority in N.I.,
Keith