Bruce raises an interesting question. I feel like there are fewer phoebes than there "should" be in my new digs in South Concord, and attribute it to the weather this past winter. It was colder than usual, including a couple of major chilling events, in the southern US where phoebes winter, and this likely affected food supplies and/or survival. Other "half-hardy" species like Winter Wren and Hermit Thrush are known to show population dips on the breeding grounds in years following southern cold snaps, and I was predicting fewer wrens this spring as a result. But wrens are secretive little critters while phoebes are pervasive, and thus more likely to be noticed in absentia.
Might not be the whole story, and there's certainly going to be spatial variation in where declines are observed, but its as good a working hypothesis as any.
Pam Hunt
Concord, NH