NEVER SAY WAR AGAIN! US Designed TERRORISM Succeeds to FEED ZIONIST Money Machine with WAR in South Asia heralding Complete DESTRUCTION. US Backed Pak MILITARY Hegemony will NEVER Give Up ANTI INDIA Agenda as survival Strategy, Neither Indian Ruling Brahaminical Hegemony would TRY to Ensure National INTEGRITY Resolving ETHNIC Problems.The Stand OFF is in the BEST Interest of UNITED STATES of AMERICA, Corporate Imperialism, MNCs, India INCs, Politicians, Policy Makers and Religious fascists Across the BORDER. Showcasing WARFARE is a DEFINITE For cast of FAMINE INFINITE! Indigenous Aboriginal Indians NEVER wanted WAR But Infighting Amongst Hegemonies KEPT Indian Geopolitics COLONISED by Foreign Powers and We All Share the LEGACY of History, Predestined to be KILLED!

[PalashKL]

NEVER SAY WAR AGAIN! US Designed TERRORISM Succeeds to FEED ZIONIST
Money Machine with WAR in South Asia heralding Complete DESTRUCTION.
US Backed Pak MILITARY Hegemony will NEVER Give Up ANTI INDIA Agenda
as survival Strategy, Neither Indian Ruling Brahaminical Hegemony
would TRY to Ensure National INTEGRITY Resolving ETHNIC Problems.The
Stand OFF is in the BEST Interest of UNITED STATES of AMERICA,
Corporate Imperialism, MNCs, India INCs, Politicians, Policy Makers
and Religious fascists Across the BORDER. Showcasing WARFARE is a
DEFINITE For cast of FAMINE INFINITE! Indigenous Aboriginal Indians
NEVER wanted WAR But Infighting Amongst Hegemonies KEPT Indian
Geopolitics COLONISED by Foreign Powers and We All Share the LEGACY of
History, Predestined to be KILLED!


Troubled Galaxy Destroyed Dreams: Chapter 130
Palash Biswas
PM holds war room meet; reviews security, defence

CNN-IBN

New Delhi: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh chaired a high-level war room
meeting in New Delhi on Saturday evening with senior ministers and
defence chiefs to discuss the security preparedness.


The meeting lasted for over four hours and discussed the country's
security preparedness and selective strikes on terror camps across the
border.


Defence Minister AK Antony, External Affairs Minister Pranab
Mukherjee, Home Minister P Chidambaram, National Security Advisor MK
Narayanan, senior armed forces officials including all the three
Service chiefs and intelligence chiefs attended the meeting.


The marathon meeting assumes significance as there is heightened
terror threat and tension with Pakistan and the Union Government has
already declared that it is keeping all options open on dealing with
any external threat following the Mumbai terror attacks carried out by
Pakistani terrorists.


Meanwhile, Indian Army is believed to have cancelled leave to all its
personnel till April.


Military strike on Pak? US Co says India ready

India to consider all options against Pak: Pranab


Earlier in the day, the Defence Minister AK Antony presided a separate
meeting with Coast Guard and Defence Ministry officials to review the
security of Indian coastline where he cleared the acquisition
proposals for the sea-guarding agency.


External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee had on Friday warned that
India was keeping all options open to protect itself.


"Terrorism remains a scourge for our region. If a country cannot keep
the assurances that it has given, then it obliges us to consider the
entire range of options that exist to protect our interests and people
from this menace," Mukherjee had said in Gangtok, referring to
Pakistan.


At a previous meeting with the three Services chiefs on December 18,
Antony had reviewed the armed force's preparedness to tackle the
terror threat facing the country.


The three defence forces are on high alert since November 26 after 10
Pakistan-trained Lashkar-e-Toiba terrorists attacked major landmarks
in Mumbai killing more than 200 people including several foreign
nationals and injured over 300.


Published on Sat, Dec 20, 2008 at 22:01, Updated on Sat, Dec 20, 2008
at 23:07 in Nation section

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/pm-holds-war-room-meet-reviews-security-defence/81016-3.html

Mumbaikars divided over Antulay's remarks
NDTV.com - 12 hours ago
Union Minister AR Antulay's remarks on ATS chief Hemant Karkare's
death not only divided the political class but also the common man on
the street.

Israel 'will not avoid Gaza war'
BBC News - 29 minutes ago
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has warned militants in Gaza that
while his government would not rush to go to war, it would not evade
such a decision.
NEVER SAY WAR AGAIN!
The suspicion of an Indian attack on Pakistan was raised by Stratfor,
a US based private intelligence service provider.In its latest
intelligence forecast, Stratfor said, “Indian military operations
against targets in Pakistan have in fact been prepared and await the
signal to go forward.”

Stratfor said, unlike the massive troop mobilisation after the
Parliament attack in 2002, this time, India’s war preparations are
clouded in secrecy and so are invisible.

US Designed TERRORISM Succeeds to FEED ZIONIST Money Machine with WAR
in South Asia heralding Complete DESTRUCTION.! The prospect of Indo-
Pak war has forced Pentagon to abandon its search for al-Qaeda leaders
in Western Pakistan and focus instead on immediate evacuation of 1,100
US troops from both the countries, a media report said on Thursday,May
30, 2002 .In case of outbreak of war, Pentagon would evacuate US
military personnel to bases in Afghanistan and ships in the Northern
Arabian Sea. On being asked about what Pakistan was doing to find al-
Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants, a Pentagon official
replied, "not much. We are very concerned."


US and British forces on the Afghan side of the border are preventing
the al-Qaeda fighters from slipping back into Afghanistan and not
capturing al-Qaeda fighters. There are 7,200 US soldiers in
Afghanistan, but virtually all the al-Qaeda leaders are believed to be
hiding in Pakistan, the report said.

India is considering all options against Pakistan to make it act
against perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks, External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said!

Is HOT PURSUIT highly demanded by NDA in Past is Possible?

Is India ready for MISSILE ATTACKS on Pakistan based Terrorist camps?

Is limited War in between two NUCLEAR POWERS in South ASIA Possible at
all?
What will be the consequence of FULL FLEDGED war between Pakistan?

I hope the WAR ROOM Discussion should have answered all these
questions! But the most vital question is still UNANSWERED whether
TERRORISM may be wiped out with the WAR OPTION without DEALING WITH
THE Foreign hand Proactive since India`s independence?Today, India’s
very existence is threatened and if it goes to war on this count, it
would be for the most righteous cause, the WAR MANIAC Ruling Class
insists on. The bane of the Indian political leadership has been that
it has failed to recognise war as an instrument of state policy, it is
alleged to PROVOKE WAR at this critical juncture! Why? Who will be
most benefited by INDO PAK WAR?

CJ: Dr. Brahma Singh argues in his article published in Merinews :

FOLLOWING THE terrorist attack in Mumbai on November 26, a heated
debate is going on in the country whether India should exercise its
option of war with Pakistan as a means for combating the menace of
terrorism. A similar exercise was carried out after the terrorists
attacked the Indian Parliament in New Delhi on December 13, 2001, to
no avail. Let us hope that the present uproar does not also end in a
whimper after sometime like the earlier one with India not even,
perhaps, having the satisfaction of threatening to go to war and
keeping Pakistan on tenterhooks for nearly one year, like it did
following the earlier incident. It will be a pity if this happens
because while last time the option of going to war was believed to
have been given up under US pressure, no such obstacle seems to be in
sight at present. In fact, in the present situation not only the US
but the entire world opinion also appears to be on India’s side.
Knowing without a shadow of doubt that Pakistan is not only sheltering
terrorists engaged in attacks in India but also encouraging its
citizens in carrying out such disruptive activity, there can be no
solution to the problem of terrorism against India without the
cooperation of Pakistan. Pakistan’s cooperation is necessary in
meeting India’s two immediate requirements. One, in apprehending and
handing over to India known Indian terrorists who have found shelter
in Pakistan as also some of its own citizens involved in terrorist
activities in India and details of whom have already been handed over
to Pakistan and two, dismantling of terrorists training camps in
Pakistan occupied Kashmir. With Pakistan’s avowed policy objective of
inflicting “a thousand cuts” on India to make it bleed to death, (as
propounded by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto after Pakistan’s ignominious defeat
in the Indo-Pak war of 1971), it should not be surprising if Pakistan
is showing no inclination towards voluntary cooperation with India in
this respect. Evidently, then, there would appear to be no choice for
India other than using force for extracting such cooperation. The
question that arises is why India is dithering from going to war with
Pakistan over the issue loaded with dire consequences for our country.
Some of the factors that could be preventing the UPA government from
taking the plunge are discussed in succeeding paragraphs.
http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=154026

As Barack Obama prepares to assume office next month, President George
W Bush has said that his successor, during his presidency, will US
President, Past and Present have to face an India that is "now more
confident" in its relations with Washington and "encourage" Pakistan
to go after terrorists.

"Obama will face a rising China, an India that is now more confident
in its relationship with the United States," Bush told in an interview
to the 'Washington Times'.

"But at the same time, will have to deal with Pakistan, and encourage
the Pakistan government to continue to go after the terrorists in the
remote regions of their country," he said.

The US has been pressing Pakistan to crackdown on terrorists camps
operating from its soil and especially on groups that India asserts
were behind the deadly Mumbai terror strikes.

Bush apparently referred to the landmark Indo-US nuclear deal,
initiated by him along with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in July
2005, which transformed the bilateral ties.

Speaking about the challenges Obama will face during his presidency,
Bush said in the newly emerging democracy of Iraq he will find it
interesting to deal with elected officials as they work through their
- these issues through their Parliament.

"You know, politics is breaking out in Iraq, and sometimes their
politics can be very emotional. But it is a democracy," he said.

At a time when the global financial crisis is impacting the real
estate sector across the globe, NRIs are invariably in a dilemma about
where to put their money in real estate. The local accommodation laws
in countries like Dubai have compelled thousands of expatriate Indians
to send their families back home due to soaring housing costs.

US Backed Pak MILITARY Hegemony will NEVER Give Up ANTI INDIA Agenda
as survival Strategy, Neither Indian Ruling Brahaminical Hegemony
would TRY to Ensure National INTEGRITY Resolving ETHNIC Problems!

The Stand OFF is in the BEST Interest of UNITED STATES of AMERICA,
Corporate Imperialism, MNCs, India INCs, Politicians, Policy Makers
and Religious fascists Across the BORDER! The World Bank has agreed to
help India with $3 billion of increased investment as the global
financial crisis undermines private financing for the country's much-
needed infrastructure agenda, the bank announced on Thursday. The
development institution has provisioned this additional amount as part
of the total financing envelope of $14 billion proposed in the India
Country Strategy over 2009-2011. India had requested an additional
$5.6 billion over the next two years. Having provisioned the $3
billion, the World Bank said it would need to examine the balance $2.6
billion and work with the Indian government over the coming weeks to
clarify details. The strategy, which is geared to help India propel
infrastructure development, support the country's seven poorest
states, and respond to the financial crisis, was discussed by the
World Bank board last week in Washington DC.


Showcasing WARFARE is a DEFINITE Forcast of FAMINE INFINITE!A high-
level assessment of the security scenario in the light of Indo-Pak
tensions was undertaken at a marathon meeting chaired by Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh at the Defence Ministry In new delhi last
night.Three senior-most Ministers, Pranab Mukherjee, A K Antony and P
Chidambaram, besides National Security Adviser M K Narayanan, three
services chiefs and intelligence chiefs attended in the meeting, which
lasted around four hours. There was no media briefing on it.Meanwhile,
the army is understood to have cancelled leave to its personnel till
April.Singh drove from his residence to the South Block housing the
Defence Ministry for the crucial meeting.The meeting comes against the
backdrop of a new low in ties with Pakistan, which is not seen as
actively cooperating with India in bringing to justice the
perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks trained from their
soil.Meanwhile, the international intelligence community believes that
India will likely attack PoK or elsewhere in Pakistan to settle scores
for the multiple November 26 Mumbai attacks.Mukherjee’s statement, on
Friday, at an international conference in Gangtok, Sikkim appears to
have lent credence to this suspicion of the global intelligence
community.

At the conference Mukherjee said, “If a country cannot keep the
assurances that it has given, then it obliges us to consider the
entire range of options that exist to protect our interests and people
from this menace.”



Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said that volatile oil
prices remain a threat to the global economy. World's largest refining
companies.
"It is clear that our most pressing challenge is price volatility.
Wild fluctuations in prices harm nations all around the world," he
said, according to IRNA.

The oil prices fell by almost three quarters from over $120 per barrel
in the recent past. Brown made the remarks at a meeting of energy and
oil ministers here on Friday.

The oil ministers from the Organisation of Petroleum Export Countries
(OPEC), including Gholam-Hossein Nozari from Iran, participated in the
discussions.


Pakistan, which is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty, has two nuclear reactors of 425 MW power to generate
electricity.

A further 137 MW KANUPP reactor, near Karachi, has been operating
commercially since 1972. Two 300 MW pressurised water reactors,
CHASNUPP-1 and CHASNUPP-2, have also been operational since 2000 near
Kundian.

One nuclear power plant of 1000 MW is under construction[citation
needed] and two new nuclear power plants are proposed.

Indigenous Aboriginal Indians NEVER wanted WAR But Infighting Amongst
Hegemonies KEPT Indian Geopolitics COLONISED by Foreign Powers and We
All Share the LEGACY of History, Predestined to be KILLED!

Now United States of America, no matter who happen to be the US
President, SHOEGATE fame Warmonger Junior Butcher Bush or Martin
Luther King DREAM Brand black Untouchable Barack Obama, plans terror
package for India. During last six decades it was the US Imperialism
and its notorious agency CIA created all the Problems endangering the
Unity and Integrity of India as Indira Gandhi used to poin out time to
time. Indira Gandhi could not SURVIVE to resist US Corporate
imperialism as she was FAULTED with Internal Imperialism supported by
Socialist imperialism and its KGB! More over, the Strongest Ever Prime
Minister had a MOLE working for CIA and US interests all the time!
Some of Indira Ministers continued their political Adventure even
after Indira`s demise and crossing the FENCE once or more. India could
not either locate or sustain her legacy to maintain Indian ocean ZONE
as PEACE ZONE. No body was interested to sustain her socialism after
the FALL of USSR. The Russian Model of Development transformed into US
CORPORATE MNC model and even the Marxists led by Bengal Brahmin
Buddhadeb Bhattacharya of west Bengal adopted the SUPER Capitalist
Highway of US Corporate Imperialism!

Just see, who created all the troubles in the North East?

Who supported JP Movement to topple socialist Indira Gandhi?

Who was behind Khalistani Movement ?

Which agencies are active in jammu and Kashmir to flare up Anti Indian
Sentiments?

Who sent SEVENTH FLEET against India in 1971?

Who had always been supporting most PAKISTANI MILITARY Hegemony in its
anti India Adventures?

Who masterminded all the COUPs in south Asia including the Murder of
banga Bandhu Mujib and his family?

Who was behind the Assassination plots of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv
Gandhi?

Where from the Hindutva fascism gets Maximum support? Who happens to
be behind the Globalisation of Manusmriti cult?

Just think, friends!

United states of America has the Colonies in South Asia ruled by
PLANTED LEADERS from Washington. All these leaders do defend the US
interests only. Democracy is just a Moderate cover up of Internal
Imperialism and fascism and ABSOLUTE Power! In fact, all these LEADERS
are nothing but agents of WAR ECONOMIES and ZIONIST Corporates and
MNCs.

Be AWARE! The HUNTERS are OUT to KILL in the KILLING FIELDS spread all
over the SUB Continent. It is neither Nationalism nor the People for
whom they speak or act or live! It is a ZIONIST NEXUS of United States
and the Governments planted in South Asia always PROMPT in Action to
SACRIFICE the innocent masses, the HAVENOTs! HAVES belong to the
Ruling Hegemonies. that`s why they happen to be SAFE , SECURE,
AFFLUENT, GROWING AND HEALTHY! On the other hand , if we are not
killed anyway, we have to STARVE!

It is SACRIFICE TIME once again in South Asia!

You have to buy FOOD dearly TEN times!

You have to use FUEL dearly, no matter how LOW happens to be the OIL
SLUMP!

Every public service have to be PRIVATE and more costly!

you have to give up your LAND for the CORPORATES and MNCs. You have to
loose your HOME for the Promoters and Builders!

You lose the MARKET for your Produce to ACCOMMODATE Retail Chain!

You have to be DISPLACED and DEPORTED!

Your NATURAL RESOURCES would be EXPLOITED by Foreign Hand and you may
not RESIST! You have to CRY for FOOD, WATER and Shelter!

YOU HAVE TO BE EJECTED OUT OF YOUR JOB and LIVELIHOOD and would never
have any ALTERNATIVE!

Provided you RESIST to defend fundamental and democratic rights,
citizenship, natural resources, land, liberty, property and home, job
and livelihood, privacy and civil rights, citizenship and human
rights, YOU ARE PREDESTINED for a lifetime CRUSH and REPRESSION being
BRANDED as EXTREMIST, TERRORIST and MILITANT! Provided the WAR , if
you speak REASON and National Interest, rather you would be treated as
ANTI NATIONAL and the TRAITORS would be FREE to persecute or Prosecute
you at will as two new TERROR ACTS are already in the Pipeline!

As India builds up pressure on Pakistan to act in the wake of Mumbai
terror attacks, New Delhi's envoys to world capitals will meet at a
two-day conference on Monday to deliberate foreign policy issues.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee will inaugurate the meeting
of over 120 Ambassadors and High Commissioners convened for the first
time since the UPA came to power.

Though the meeting was planned much before the Mumbai terror attacks
took place, terrorism and the diplomatic drive launched by India
asking Pakistan to act against the perpetrators of terrorism operating
from its soil is expected to dominate the proceedings.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is also expected to address the
gathering on the concluding day.

Singh as also Mukherjee will tell the envoys about how they should
present India in the present global scenario when terrorism and
financial crisis are posing greatest challenges to the world.

Singh and Mukherjee are likely to tell the envoys to highlight how
India has been facing terrorism emanating from Pakistan despite New
Delhi's keen desire to improve relations with the western neighbour in
all areas, the sources said.

The Prime Minister and the External Affairs Minister are expected to
outline the steps that India has taken to improve ties with Pakistan
and how the neighbour has failed to reciprocate the gestures in terms
of ending terrorism.

The intent is that the envoys should highlight these aspects in the
countries where they are posted as part of efforts to build pressure
on Pakistan to end terrorism.

Like a phoenix that rises from the ashes, the Taj and Trident hotelson
Sunday reopened their doors, three weeks after the November 26 terror
attack.

"Thank you for your support" was the first greeting, besides loads of
smiles and flowers, offered by Trident to one of its first customers
in place of the usual bill as the hotel came back to life.

"We dedicate the restored hotel to those who have lost their lives,"
Taj Hotels group chairman Ratan Tata said shortly before the Tower
wing of the iconic hotel was reopened to guestsin the evening.

Both hotels have seen a lot of activity over the past few days as they
were sprucing up for the reopening. The staff at both these places
were also working determinedly to restore the hotels back to their
former glory.

The two hotels, which suffered extensive damage in the nearly three-
day long terror siege, have been partially reopened -- The Taj Towers
in case of the Taj Mahal Place and Towers and the Trident in case of
the Oberoi-Trident.


International Monetary Fund Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn has said the
level of debt in the UK is "disturbing" but more government borrowing
is necessary to stimulate growth.

The level of debt in the UK is "disturbing," but given the severity of
the economic downturn, more government borrowing was the lesser of two
evils, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in an interview to the BBC.

He warned that 2009 would be "a really bad year". "I'm specially
concerned by the fact that our forecast, already very dark... will be
even darker if not enough fiscal stimulus is implemented," he said in
an interview.

Strauss-Kahn said: "More state spending was necessary to stimulate
growth" and governments around the world had no choice but to step in
and spend more.

Public debt has risen to 650 billion pound, 44.2 per cent of UK gross
domestic product. Consumer debt is more than 1.4 trillion pound.

He added that a stimulus equivalent to about 2 per cent of global GDP
or about USD 1.2 trillion is required to make a real difference to the
crumbling economy.

"The problem is that all the whole society is going to suffer," he
added.

The USA is working through a package for India on dealing with the
situation arising out of the Mumbai terror strikes by way of
information sharing, collaboration and cooperation, a top Pentagon
official said.



Mind you, what is the GRASS Root reality:
Pak-US relations
by Abdur Raziq for Peace lovers December 06, 2007

From December 1971 onwards majority of the people in Pakistan view USA
as unreliable ally, in December 1971 when Pakistan Army ninety
thousand fighters had surrendered before Indian Army in East Pakistan,
despite of frequent assurances from President Nixon US armed forces
were unable to come for rescue of Pakistan Army, and Pakistan was
dismembered new state of Bangladesh was emerged at the world map.


President Nixon in his memoirs had mentioned that due to existence of
strong pro India lobby in USA he was unable to move troops to save
East Pakistan. Very few people in Pakistan know that after fall of
Dhaka, President Nixon had made phone call to Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi of India, and during telephonic conversation President Nixon
Had warned Prime Minister Indira Gandhi that if she had acted on her
plan of capturing West Pakistan too then USA will react. Thus West
Pakistan was saved by US president.


Common people in Pakistan have no idea about US political system, as
Hitler rules supreme in Pakistan no matter who so ever in power
philosophy and attitude of Nazism prevails and rulers can do any thing
of their liking, the elected rulers behave in more dictatorial way
then military rulers like President Parvez Musharaf, dictator ship of
majority in absence of independent judiciary and other checks and
balances present in US political system, is more harmful then an
autocrat ruler from military, at least he is under some military rules
and laws, civilian dictators are above the law in Pakistan.


So people of Pakistan can not understand this logic that president of
USA is not an autocrat, he is always under constitutional limits, and
lobbying is a feature of US political system through which innocent
and sincere people of USA can be convinced to support unjust causes
when lobbyists start doing their job to get favors for certain
countries even if those countries are in camp hostile to USA. It had
happened in 1971 that cold war ally of Soviet Union India having
defense pact with Soviets was such a powerful lobby in USA that
president Nixon as he had written in his memoirs during meeting with
Prime Minister Indra Gandhi of India was compelled to listen to her
lecture on international affairs, and during her lecture she had
started with the words that Mr. President you are new comer in
politics and being prime minister of a largest democracy in the world
I am obliged to tell you that……….
http://www.groundreport.com/World/Pak-US-relations


“We are working through the initial parts of a package... we would
offer to India to help them understand some of the lessons... that we
very painfully learnt in the wake of our 11 September attacks, in
information sharing, collaboration and cooperation,” Admiral Timothy
Keating, head of the US Pacific Command, told in WASHINGTON.

“And I expressed our willingness to provide that to India in my
conversations with Indian leaders,” he said.

“Mumbai is just the latest place where the ... innocent victims number
in the hundreds. And it remains our foremost objective in the Asia-
Pacific Region to deter and prevent those kinds of attacks,” Admiral
Keating said.

Praising India for its “measured response” in the aftermath of the
Mumbai attacks, Admiral Keating said that various agencies of the US
government were working closely to keep tabs on developments in the
region. He said Washington was satisfied that India and Pakistan have
successfully avoided the danger of a military confrontation. “We’re
working closely with Central Command and with Department of State,
Office of the Secretary of Defence and the intelligence agencies to
make sure we are as fully apprised... of developments in that
particular part of the world as we can be, and I'm satisfied that we
are,” he said.

The secretary of state, Miss Condoleezza Rice, meanwhile has said the
steps taken by Pakistan in the wake of the Mumbai attacks are “not
nearly enough”, and advised it to keep on working to “really deal”
with terrorism to help ease the “crisis” with India.

“If Pakistan continues to work to really deal with the terrorism
problem, and if India can do the hard work of both helping to bring
the perpetrators to justice and trying to prevent the next attack,
then I think we can get through this crisis,” she said at a function
here.

Asked if she believed the civilian government in Pakistan has control
over the military and the ISI, she said civilians were very much in
charge and there have been some “positive” steps “though they’re not
nearly enough to this point”.

CII wants govt to help industry in land acquisition
NEW DELHI: Industry body CII on Sunday said it wants the government to
reconsider the Land Acquisition (Amendment) Bill 2007 which if passed
would
leave the private sector 'fend for itself' in land acquisition for
industrial projects.

According to the Bill, which was introduced in the Lok Sabha last
year, the state will step in to help acquire land after the industry
has bought 70 per cent of the allotted site.

This means, the "government will no longer play a role in acquiring
land for industrial development," chamber Vice- President Venu
Srinivasan said.

Piecing together fragmented land from numerous owners cannot be done
by the corporate sector effectively. "Rather the state should fulfill
its responsibility for economic development and employment generation
by developing industrial parks and make them available for in the
industry," the chamber said.

It has suggested setting up state land bank corporations whose job
would be to acquire non-cultivable land, develop them and pass them to
the private sector.

The government had introduced the Bill in Parliament after violent
protests broke out in different parts of the country, including
Nandigram and Singur in West Bengal, against land acquisition. The
Tatas were forced to shift to Gujarat from Singur for their
prestigious Nano car project.

He said the state governments should be empowered to acquire land not
only for infrastructure or defence purposes, but also for economic
activity.

Another provision of the Bill that requires buyer of the land to share
the capital gains with the original owners or their heirs is an
"impossibly onerous task" for the private sector, he said.

He said besides developing the basic infrastructure, the government
should also provide for rehabilitation of the displaced persons, CII
said.

History, dissent cloud Pakistan's Mumbai attack reaction
ISLAMABAD: The black-and-white flag of Jamaat-ud-Dawa still flutters
over a relief camp for survivors of an earthquake that hit a remote
corner of In pics: How Kasab was caught

Pakistan in October.

But bearded medics who work with the group had vanished from the
huddle of tents and mud huts when a half-dozen police showed up to
close the operation following allegations the charity was linked to
militants blamed for the deadly Mumbai attacks in India.

How Pakistan deals with the Islamic group — popular among many for its
aid to the needy — is a key test of its pledge to help investigate the
Mumbai tragedy and, more broadly, to prevent militants from using its
soil to attack both India and Afghanistan.

The US and the UN say Jamaat-ud-Dawa is a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba,
the group India says trained and sent the gunmen who attacked India's
commercial capital last month, killing 164 people and straining what
had been improved relations between the countries.

Lashkar-e-Taiba has been an unofficial ally of the Pakistan army in
Kashmir, a disputed territory claimed by both India and Pakistan.

Some believe the moment has come for Pakistan, which also backed the
Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, to make clear it has abandoned a
shadowy policy of using militant proxies as a foreign policy tool.

The country stands before a ``moment of change in people's attitudes
and thinking'' toward militants, Sen. John Kerry said on Tuesday in
Islamabad.

Pakistan must see that Lashkar-e-Taiba has ``morphed into a more al-
Qaida-esque and radicalized entity'' that is damaging the country's
interests, said Kerry, incoming chairman of the powerful Senate
Foreign Relations Committee.

Growing Islamic extremism is tearing at the country's social fabric as
well as deterring investment. The secular, pro-Western party that took
control of the government in March lost its leader, former premier
Benazir Bhutto, in a gun-and-bomb attack blamed on Pakistani
militants.

In the wake of the Mumbai attacks, Pakistan has moved against both
Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jamaat-ud-Dawa, albeit under intense international
pressure.
Interviews this week with officials from both groups and the
government examined the extent of the crackdown. On paper, it looks
considerable, but questions remain about the long-term impact.

The Interior Ministry says 53 people are in custody, including Lashkar-
e-Taiba's purported leader, Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, and two men accused
by India of being key plotters of the Mumbai carnage.

Pressure mounts on govt for another fuel price cut
NEW DELHI: The brief adjournment of Lok Sabha on Friday afternoon,
forced by Samajwadi Party MPs, was not in itself unexceptional but
their demand
that government cut fuel prices in keeping with a global low in crude
rates -- struck a chord with the entire House across the aisles.

The SP MPs wanted foreign minister and leader of the House Pranab
Mukherjee, who pointedly busied himself with some papers, to respond.
While Mukherjee wore a bemused look, the SP MPs, with the obvious
support of other sections of the House, clamoured that the government
make a statement.


The House met again soon after, but it is clear that political
pressure is beginning to mount on the government to go in for another
fuel price cut with the international price of crude down. Congress
MPs said the demand for lower fuel prices was reasonable and would
provide direct relief to a large section of consumers from urbanites
to farmers.

Asked whether the demand for a fuel cut could gather steam as polls
approached, Congress MPs said they did not feel the government should
wait much longer. "We would like a reduction right away. A drop in
price of diesel will help bring down transport costs and the price of
vegetables. It will help farmers who run pump sets," said an MP.

The government had this month reduced prices of petrol and diesel by
Rs 5 and Rs 2 respectively. Earlier, it had hiked petrol and diesel
prices by Rs 5 and Rs 3. With crude prices likely to remain low
despite OPEC deciding to cut production, the clamour for more price
cuts is expected to increase sharply. The oil companies are glad that
they are being able to recover their losses, but the political
imperatives are likely to prevail.

Oil minister Murli Deora is already being told by MPs that it was time
to be a little more "generous" and that he should reduce the price of
LPG by Rs 100 as well. This is being seen as a surefire winner with
voters as Congress gears for elections. Deora has usually kept quiet
when faced with such banter, which is likely to get more serious with
the overall economic situation remaining stressed.

Going by the government's own exhortation to departments and state
governments to spend more to quicken the economy, a reduction of fuel
rates will be seen as another step in the same direction. On the
fiscal front, former finance minister P Chidambaram, who has been
fielding questions on behalf of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, has
repeatedly told Parliament that in 2008-09, fiscal deficit will not be
treated as sacrosanct.

The Taj reopens, Tata dedicates it to terror victims

The Taj Mahal hotel, ravaged during the 26/11 terror strikes, reopened
this evening with its owner Ratan Tata dedicating the restored hotel
to those who had lost their lives in the carnage.

"We dedicate the restored hotel to those who have lost their lives,"
Tata, who is the Chairman of Indian Hotels, the company that owns the
Taj, said just before the reopening of Tower Wing of the hotel.

"We cannot be knocked down--this is a memorable day and a tribute to
those who saved many lives," an emotional Tata said, adding "it gives
me a great sense of pride--this is the start of a new era."

The audacious terror attack of November 26 killed 163 people in the
metropolis, of which 31 died in the Taj, apart from causing extensive
damage to two of the city's renowned hotels-- the Taj and Oberoi-
Trident.

"To us, it was a challenge to have the hotel reopen within one month
from attack," he said.

The heritage wing of the hotel, badly damaged in the attack, will be
opened in phases starting from February, he said, adding that the
entire hotel will be opened by the end of next year.

When asked about security arrangements, Tata said that "we have our
plans of security which we cannot share with you."

Among the celebrities who attended the reopening ceremony were writer
Shobhaa De, actor Rahul Bose, industrialist Adi Godrej, Uday Kotak,
Kishore Biyani, and theatre personality Alyque Padamsee.

ATS ready to file chargesheet against Malegaon blast accused

Mumbai (PTI): The Malegaon blasts case is likely to be concluded soon
with police saying they have gathered all the evidence to prove the
role of the accused in the court.

"The investigation is at a conclusion stage. We are in a position to
file the chargesheet within the stipulated time," Anti-Terrorist Squad
head K P Raghuvanshi told PTI. "We have gathered sufficient evidence
to prove the role of the culprits. The evidence includes physical,
technical and other details," he said.

Though the Malegaon blasts case investigation took a back seat after
the death of the then ATS chief Hemant Karkare, officials later
stepped up the probe to bring the culprits to justice.

The ATS have arrested sadhvi Pragya Singh Thakur, Lt Col Srikant
Purohit, priest Dayanand Pandey and seven others so far in the
connection with the September blast. The motorcycle, which was seized,
is in the name of Pragya Singh, the conversation between her and her
accomplices in connection with the blasts and a number of eyewitnesses
were what the they have with them as evidence, ATS officials claimed.

"It was true that investigation hampered after the death of Karkare.
The efforts he had put to catch the culprits with a strong evidence
have prompted us to be more active and work on the case consistently.
Now we are back on track," said an ATS officials.

Shiv Sena and BJP leaders had criticised Karkare for allegedly
targeting the sadhvi and other accused, who were associated with right-
wing organisations.

US bankruptcies surge 30 pc; touch 10.4 lakh cases
New York (PTI): The world's largest economy, the US, has seen a spurt
in bankruptcy cases, with such filings jumping as much as 30 per cent
for 12 months ended September 30 compared to the year-ago period.

According to the Administrative Office of the US Courts, as much as
10.4 lakh bankruptcy cases were filed in federal courts across the
country for the year ending September 30.

The figure represents a 30 per cent surge in comparison with just
eight lakh filings in the same period a year ago.

For the nation's Federal Judiciary, the fiscal year ends on September
30. The latest bankruptcy data are for October 1, 2007 to September
30, 2008.

Interestingly, September was the month in which "the highest of any 12-
month period" bankruptcy cases were filed after the implementation of
the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act in 2006.

It was September, when the Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11
bankruptcy protection, the largest bankruptcy filing in the US history
with the Wall Street company holding over 600 billion dollars in
assets.

Washington Mutual having more than 300 billion dollars holdings had
also filed for bankruptcy under chapter 11 in the same month after it
failed to save itself from the ongoing financial downturn.

As per the statistics as much as 757 bankruptcy cases were filed in
the month of September under Chapter 11 in business category filing
before the US federal courts located across the country.

Antulay remarks to dominate Parliament tomorrow
New Delhi (IANS): Minority Affairs Minister A.R. Antulay's
controversial remarks on the death of a top police official in the
Mumbai terror attack is set to dominate Parliament proceedings pn
Monday, with the opposition clamouring for his resignation while the
Government planning a statement on the matter.

"Antulay is repeatedly speaking a lie on the killing of (Maharashtra
Anti-Terrorism Squad chief) Hemant Karkare. His irresponsible
statement as a Cabinet minister has weakened India's position on the
Mumbai terrorist attack internationally," Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
spokesman Syed Shah Nawaz Hussain told IANS on Sunday.

Participating in a Lok Sabha debate on the Mumbai terror attacks,
Antulay hinted that Karkare's death while combating the terrorists
could be linked to the September 29 Malegaon bombing he was
investigating and in which members of Hindu radical groups are the
main suspects.

Urging Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to immediately sack Antulay from
the Cabinet, Hussain said the issue would dominate Parliament sitting
on Monday if the Government's statement on the issue, expected on
Monday, was not acceptable to the "people of the country."

On the other hand, a highly-placed Government source said the ruling
coalition had not taken a decision on who should and when to give a
reply in Parliament on this issue.

"The Government is yet to decide whether the Prime Minister (Manmohan
Singh) or the Leader of the Lok Sabha (Pranab Mukherjee) should give a
reply on Antulay. And a decision on when a reply should be given has
also not been taken. The decisions will be taken (on Monday) morning,"
the source told IANS on Sunday.

He said the Government was ready to face the BJP and its ally Shiv
Sena in Parliament on the issue.

"We have communicated to all our MPs to be present in Parliament in
the coming two days," said the source, not wishing to be identified.

The current session of Parliament concludes on Tuesday.

Hussain said former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's statement
— confirming that Mohammad Ajmal Amir alias Kasab, the only terrorist
caught alive during the attacks, is a Pakistani — had nailed
Pakistan's lie.

"While Pakistani leader Sharif helps us (India), Antulay is helping
Pakistan. Antulay's statement divided the nation, which was united for
war against terror," the BJP leader said.

Leader of the Lok Sabha Pranab Mukherjee assured the house last week
that the Government would make a suitable reply before the current
session ends.

The Congress core committee, which met in New Delhi on Saturday, also
discussed the issue.

Highly-placed government sources have said Antulay had sent his
resignation to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh after the uproar over his
remarks in the Lok Sabha — and outside — on Karkare's killing but the
minister has refused to either confirm or deny whether he had put in
his papers.

Investment in security technologies vital: Manmohan


P. Sunderarajan





— Photo: V.V. Krishnan

Achievers: Some of the Shanti Swaroop Bhatnagar awardees with Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh, Minister for Science and Technology Kapil
Sibal, and CSIR Director-General S.K. Brahmachari, in New Delhi on
Saturday.

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday regretted that
the role of technology in supporting counter-terrorism and internal
security efforts was not being adequately appreciated in the country,
though it could not only act as a force multiplier but also provide
solutions to problems relating to command, coordination and
communication.

“We should use scientific interventions to neutralise weapons of
terror and mass destruction. I believe that investment in security
technologies is vital if our security systems are to keep pace with
the increasing sophistication of international terrorism and crime.”

Pointing out that other nations had been using modern science and
technology in their security structures with “great effect,” he said
some of the areas where greater work was required were surveillance
systems, cryptography, near real-time search and identification from
distributed large databases and computer simulation exercise to
enhance crisis tactics and response.

Dr. Singh referred to the challenges of “growing” economic recession
and the “potentially devastating” climate changes faced by the world.
Part of the public investments that were being made to stimulate the
economies could be used to develop new technologies to meet these
problems.

“We can use the ingenuity and inventiveness of science to find ways to
‘leapfrog’ to future technologies, which were affordable and also
sustainable. We can use some part of the public investment, which will
spend to stimulate our economies, in these new technologies that will
help build sustainable pathways to development.”

Noting that China and Japan had scored over India in creating
efficient systems to reach the benefits of scientific and
technological benefits to their people, Dr. Singh urged scientific
institutions, the industry and government agencies to work in unison
to create such mechanisms. “We cannot be satisfied becoming [merely] a
back office for providing research and development solutions for
multinational companies.”

Presenting the prestigious Shanti Swaroop Bhatnagar awards of the
Council of Scientific and Industrial Research for young scientists, he
asked the CSIR to take the lead to define new strategies for
translating cutting edge science and technology into globally
competitive enterprises.

“To begin with, let CSIR work to commercially exploit its vast
knowledge base, currently embodied in more than 3,000 or so patents
held nationally and globally.”

He expressed the hope that the various scientific departments would
make judicious use of the steps taken by the government in recent
years to enhance the allocation for science and technology, based on a
new vision, a new work culture and a renewed focus on scientific
solutions that impacted on the lives of the common man. Public-private
partnerships should be used to commercialise the technologies emerging
from research and development programmes funded by them.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/21/stories/2008122160730900.htm

Radar cover for entire coastline


Sandeep Dikshit


Extra punch for Coast Guard



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nine more Coast Guard stations coming

Capability to include offensive operations


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


A.K.Antony

NEW DELHI: The government on Saturday cleared emergency purchases to
add punch to the Coast Guard’s capability for surveillance and
interception. A high-level meeting here, chaired by Defence Minister
A.K. Antony, also approved nine more Coast Guard stations and radar
coverage for the entire coastline. It identified vulnerable areas
where additional ships and aircraft will be deployed.

Attended by Defence Secretary Vijay Singh, Coast Guard Director-
General Vice Admiral Anil Chopra and Director-General (Acquisitions)
Sashi Kant Sharma, the meeting took decisions that are the first in a
series of steps to strengthen and overhaul homeland security.

This was the second meeting on reorienting the Coast Guard’s
capabilities from surveillance and search and rescue to include
offensive operations.

The Coast Guard will send a team abroad to evaluate purchase
possibilities.




It was asked to lease or hire ships from the global market in the
quickest possible time. Approval was accorded for acquisition of
cutting-edge equipment and interceptor boats on a fast-track basis.

The proposal to set up additional Coast Guard Stations will be sent
for Cabinet approval at the earliest.

The government is already evolving an integrated national emergency
response system and looking at other measures including unmanned
aerial vehicles for urban applications, a new generation of tactical
weapons for the special forces such as handguns, communication systems
and individual GPS systems.

Panel to be set up


PTI reports:

With the country’s 7,500-km coastline vulnerable to terrorist attacks,
the Home Ministry has decided to set up a committee to go into the
difficulties on account of fishing harbours within the port limits.

The panel will examine what could be done, taking into account
fishermen’s livelihood issues, a Ministry official said.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/21/stories/2008122158000100.htm

BSF on high alert at borders
The BSF is on high alert along the border with Pakistan in the wake of
the heightened security scenario following the Mumbai terror attacks,
chief of the force, M L Kumawat, said today.
'Mumbai attacks deliberate assault on India'
Mrs Gandhi said response to such attacks has to be firm & effective.
No firm proof that Mumbai attackers from Pak: Zardari
Asif Ali Zardari has said there is still no "real evidence" that the
terrorists were from Pakistan nor had it been established Kasab hailed
from the country's Punjab province.
Congress may take action against A R Antulay
Sources have said the Congress will seek explanation from minority
affairs minister Antulay for his remarks questioning the killing of
ATS chief Hemant Karkare.
2 LeT operatives brought to Mumbai for attack probe
Two suspected Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives, Faheem Ansari and Sabauddin,
were brought from UP in connection with the November 26 terror
attacks.
Masood Azhar not in our custody, says Pak
Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Maulana Masood Azhar is not in the custody of
the Pakistan government, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
House of 'Kasab's lawyer' vandalised
Two days after lawyer K B N Lam moved an application in a session's
court expressing his willingness to defend Kasab in a court, two
unidentified men vandalized his Breach Candy home.
7 terrorists stayed back on ship: Kasab
Kasab said there were 17 terrorists on ship that set sail from
Karachi.
Jammat starts PR campaign for a do-gooder image
As Pak struggles to ban Jamaat-ud-Dawa on UN Security Council
resolution, Islamic group mounted its own defence against ban.
India, US trying to cripple ISI, says Pak media
Pak media reported that ISI had been cleared of any involvement in
Mumbai terror attacks by FBI.
Kasab will not go undefended: Chief Justice
Mohammed Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone terrorist captured during the
Mumbai attack, will not go undefended, says Chief Justice of India K G
Balakrishnan.
Antulay raises doubts over Karkare's killing
Minister A R Antulay questioned why all three (Hemant Karakre, Vijay
Salaskar and Ashok Kamte) went together to tackle terrorists.
Parliament debates anti-terror bills
Parliament on Wednesday opened debate on tougher anti-terrorism laws
and a plan to set up an FBI-style agency designed to plug gaping
security holes exposed by last month's Mumbai attacks.


Successful launch for ISRO-EADS Astrium built satellite

BANGALORE: The-state-of-the-art communication satellite, W2M, built
by the ISRO on a commercial basis in partnership with EADS-Astrium of
Europe,
was successfully launched early Sunday by the European Ariane-5 launch
vehicle.

The satellite was launched at 4.05 am IST from the Guiana Space Centre
at Kourou in French Guiana, the ISRO said here on Sunday.

Thirty-two minutes after its lift-off, W2M separated from Ariane-5,
after reaching its intended Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO).

Radio signals transmitted by W2M were successfully received by the
ISRO's Master Control Facility (MCF) at Hassan in Karnataka and the
satellite's health is normal.

W2M project was undertaken in the context of an accord signed during
the visit of President of France on February 20, 2006, at New Delhi
between Antrix corporation Ltd., the commercial arm of the India's
Department of Space and EADS Astrium to jointly build and deliver a
communication satellite (W2M) to Eutelsat Communications, which is a
global satellite communications provider based in Paris.

Astrium had the responsibility for overall programme management and
delivery of the communications payload and Antrix/ISRO provided the
satellite bus and also performed W2M's integration and testing at
ISRO's facilities here.

W2M satellite, weighing 3,463 kg at lift-off, is the heaviest
satellite built by the ISRO and is capable of operating for over 15
years.

The satellite's solar panels generate a maximum of about 7000 Watts of
power.

Subsequent to its placement in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit by Ariane
5, W2M is to be positioned finally at the orbital slot of 16 degree
East in the Geostationary Orbit.

It carries 32 high power Ku band transponders for telecommunications
and broadcasting services over Europe, Middle East and North Africa,
an ISRO release said.

Antrix/ISRO is also responsible for the Launch and Early Orbit Phase
(LEOP) operations of W2M, which is being conducted from Master Control
Facility.

The operations include 3-axis stabilisation of the satellite, repeated
firing of its Liquid Apogee Motor to reach the satellite to its final
orbital slot and deployment of its appendages.

LeT financier confesses to role in Mumbai terror attacks


21 Dec 2008, 1250 hrs IST, Times Now

NEW DELHI: Alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) financier in India -
Sabauddin - who along with the November 26 Mumbai terror attacks
planner Fahim Ansari
has revealed how terror was sponsored from across the border.

Sabauddin's confessions, available with Times Now, give further
evidence of Pakistan's role in the Mumbai terror attack.

Arrested by the Uttar Pradesh Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) more than ten
months ago in connection with the CRPF attack in Rampur, Sabauddin is
believed to have helped the LeT carry out the Mumbai terror attacks,
helping Fahim Ansari to reece the terror targets.

Along with Ansari, Sabauddin was trained at the same camp as Ajmal
Amir Kasab - the only terrorist caught alive post the 26/11 attacks.
He also confessed to have met the Mumbai attacks mastermind - Zaki ur
Rehman Lakhvi during an LeT training camp.

A 12th standard dropout from the Aligarh University, Sabauddin
revealed that it was the Gujarat riots that triggered the terror
attacks. After training under two LeT commanders in Kashmir, Sabauddin
said he went to Pakistan in March 2003, where he was introduced to the
chief of LeT India operations - Yusuf Muzammil.

In 2004, Sabauddin came to India via Nepal using a fake passport and
then settled in Bangalore, where he enrolled himself in a BBA course
in the city's Presidency college and eventually carried out a reecee
of the IISc campus in Bangalore along with another LeT man Abu Hamza
for his first assignment - the attack on the Indian Institute of
Science.

Sabauddin is believed to have told that it was Abu Hamza, who went to
IISc on December 28, 2005 and opened fire at the conference hall and
threw hand grenades. After the attack the two fled the country, only
to meet again three days later in Pakistan.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/LATEST_NEWS/LeT_financier_confesses_to_role_in_Mumbai_terror_attacks/articleshow/3869382.cms

Dawood Ibrahim prepares for secret birthday party

21 Dec 2008, 0825 hrs IST, TNN
MUMBAI: Even as the Indian government continues to put pressure on
Islamabad to hand over Dawood Ibrahim to it, the don gets ready to
celebrate his
53rd birthday on December 26 at an undisclosed location, probably
outside Pakistan.

According to a source in the underworld, the star guest to this year's
extravaganza will be a high-profile international arms dealer who
reportedly handles financial transactions of Dawood.

When an Indian politician had to receive a kickback worth crores in an
international business deal, he sought the help of Dawood, who took
the services of this arms dealer to facilitate the funds transfer, a
source told TOI on Saturday.

A secret meeting was held at Geneva last year, which was attended by
Dawood-who has several passports issued by the Pakistani government-
the politician and the arms-dealer where the money transaction was
worked out. "The Centre has report of this meeting, but it is not
acting on it,'' an official said.


Also Read


Usually, an array of Indian businessmen, including some builders, are
invited to Dawood's birthday bashes at Karachi, which are lavish
affairs attended by senior ISI officers. In previous years, the Indian
businessmen land in Dubai from where "arrangements'' are made to ferry
them to Karachi.

However, this time, with all eyes on the underworld don, thanks to his
probable role in the November 26 terror attack on Mumbai, Dawood has
shifted his party venue to a secret place, a source said. There is
increasing evidence that funds for the terror strike were sent by the
D gang-which is under the thumb of the ISI- from two accounts in
London, a source said.

Indian security agencies are reportedly keeping tabs on the movements
of known business partners of Dawood in Mumbai, including a gutkha
baron and a top builder, to find out if they are going to Dubai en
route to the secret birthday bash.

"However, all these efforts add up to nothing as the government is not
at all inclined to crack down on Dawood's financial empire in India
despite us gathering all kinds of information about it,'' a security
official said.

Dawood, who has a major benami stake in an airline operating out of
Pakistan to several international destinations, is now trying to get
permission to operate to India through his front men, the source
added.

Top executives of bailed-out banks get $1.6 bn
NEW YORK: Banks that are getting taxpayer bailouts awarded their top
executives nearly $1.6 billion in salaries, bonuses, and other
benefits last Countries in recession
2008: Year of financial crisis
Ghosts of 1929
year, an Associated Press analysis reveals.

The rewards came even at banks where poor results last year foretold
the economic crisis that sent them to Washington for a government
rescue. Some trimmed their executive compensation due to lagging bank
performance, but still forked over multimillion-dollar executive pay
packages.

Benefits included cash bonuses, stock options, personal use of company
jets and chauffeurs, home security, country club memberships and
professional money management, the AP review of federal securities
documents found.

The total amount given to nearly 600 executives would cover bailout
costs for many of the 116 banks that have so far accepted tax dollars
to boost their bottom lines.

Rep. Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services committee
and a long-standing critic of executive largesse, said the bonuses
tallied by the AP review amount to a bribe "to get them to do the jobs
for which they are well paid in the first place.

"Most of us sign on to do jobs and we do them best we can," said
Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat. "We're told that some of the most
highly paid people in executive positions are different. They need
extra money to be motivated!"



The AP compiled total compensation based on annual reports that the
banks file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The 116 banks
have so far received $188 billion in taxpayer help. Among the
findings:

The average paid to each of the banks' top executives was $2.6 million
in salary, bonuses and benefits.

Lloyd Blankfein, president and chief executive officer of Goldman
Sachs, took home nearly $54 million in compensation last year. The
company's top five executives received a total of $242 million.

This year, Goldman will forgo cash and stock bonuses for its seven top-
paid executives. They will work for their base salaries of $600,000,
the company said. Facing increasing concern by its own shareholders on
executive payments, the company described its pay plan last spring as
essential to retain and motivate executives "whose efforts and
judgments are vital to our continued success, by setting their
compensation at appropriate and competitive levels." Goldman spokesman
Ed Canaday declined to comment beyond that written report.

The New York-based company on Dec. 16 reported its first quarterly
loss since it went public in 1999. It received $10 billion in taxpayer
money on Oct. 28.

Even where banks cut back on pay, some executives were left with
seven- or eight-figure compensation that most people can only dream
about. Richard D. Fairbank, the chairman of Capital One Financial
Corp., took a $1 million hit in compensation after his company had a
disappointing year, but still got $17 million in stock options. The
McLean, Va.-based company received $3.56 billion in bailout money on
Nov. 14.

John A. Thain, chief executive officer of Merrill Lynch, topped all
corporate bank bosses with $83 million in earnings last year. Thain, a
former chief operating officer for Goldman Sachs, took the reins of
the company in December 2007, avoiding the blame for a year in which
Merrill lost $7.8 billion. Since he began work late in the year, he
earned $57,692 in salary, a $15 million signing bonus and an
additional $68 million in stock options.

Like Goldman, Merrill got $10 billion from taxpayers on Oct. 28.

Indian real estate sector

India Pakistan Strategic Balance

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Country's 10 most valued firms added a whopping Rs 1,00,000 crore to
their market capitalisation in a week, which witnessed an uptrend in
the stock market, as state-run MMTC staged a comeback to the elite
club.

MMTC, after nearly a month, regained its lost turf and grabbed the
fifth spot in the top 10 valued club's list after adding Rs 47,639
crore to its market capitalisation.

PSU mining giant MMTC saw its valuation surging to Rs 95,838 crore,
from Rs 48,198 crore in the week-ago period.

Shares of MMTC skyrocketed 98 per cent in the week to settle at Rs
19,167.50 on Friday last. Since November 28, when the firm had first
slipped out of the elite club, it has gained about 92 per cent in its
share price.

The total market capitalisation of the top 10 firms -- comprising six
public sector and four private sector entities -- rose for second
straight week gaining Rs 1,03,780 crore.

At the end of Friday's trade last week, the combined valuation of the
elite club stood at Rs 11,02,154 crore, against Rs 9,98,375 crore a
week ago.

Country's most valued firm Reliance Industries added Rs 6,777 crore to
its valuation in a week. RIL, which regained its Rs two trillion mark
in market capitalisation last week, was the numero uno in the list at
the end of the Friday's trade.

Mukesh Ambani-led RIL saw its valuation rising to Rs 2,12,345 crore at
the end of Friday's trade, from Rs 2,05,568.45 crore a week ago.

However, cellular giant Bharti Airtel dropped to the fourth place,
after losing Rs 142.37 crore in a week. The Sunil Mittal-led company
saw its market capitalisation dropping to Rs 1,36,965 crore at the end
of Friday's trade.

Industry chamber Assocham has called for a legislation to make
provisions for funding of elections through budgetary allocation and
make
corporate donations transparent regulated by SEBI.

Assocham has suggested that election funding by corporate should be
made "legal" and transparent and the whole process be regulated by
Securities and Exchange Board of India.

In the paper 'Funding of the Political Parties for election Purposes,'
which was submitted to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the industry
body has emphasised the need for a legislation to ensure cleaner,
freer and transparent elections.




"Market regulator SEBI should impose a certain ceiling on corporate's
net profits for extension of such donations to political parties of
their choices to prevent them exceed the prescribed limit for any
motive," the chamber said in a statement.

Pointing out that listed corporations should inform the SEBI about the
donations they intend to make, Assocham has said that all such funding
should be approved by their respective corporate boards. In the case
of unlisted companies and partnerships, the funding moves should be
approved by the IT Department.

"Political parties must be compelled by law to publish week-by-week
the donations they receive from corporates and the public. They should
also give a consolidated list of donors within three months of the end
of election process," the statement noted.

Sify 'US not worried about India's nuclear plants post Mumbai attacks'
- 18 Dec 2008
"I think one can expect that in helping India build nuclear power
plants that ... only passing in talks with the Chinese that primarily
focused on Pakistan, ...Times of India - 544 related articles »
India's options on Pakistan still open - Asia Times Online - 135
related articles »

FREE SPEECH -- The First Amendment Center reports that more than a
century after it was written, an essay by Mark Twain on the "freedom"
of candid speech is published for the first time in the December 22
issue of the New Yorker. A sample from "The Privilege of the Grave":
As an active privilege, [free speech] ranks with the privilege of
committing murder: We may exercise it if we are willing to take the
consequences. Murder is forbidden both in form and in fact. Free
speech is granted in form but forbidden in fact. By the common
estimate, both are crimes and are held in deep odium by all civilized
peoples. Murder is sometimes punished; free speech, always — when
committed, which is seldom.
Sometimes my feelings are so hot that I have to take to the pen
and pour them out on paper to keep them from setting me afire inside.
Then all that ink and labor are wasted, because I can't print the
results. I've just finished an article of this kind and it satisfies
me entirely. It does my weather-beaten soul good to read it and admire
the trouble it would make for me and the family. I will leave it
behind and utter it from the grave.

Food items costlier despite cooling inflation


20 Dec 2008, 0052 hrs IST, Prabha Jagannathan, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: Although the headline inflation is now at a near-
comfortable level, prices for some key food items continue to remain
high as the sharp
drop in global commodity prices has not yet had an impact on local
prices. The retail prices of key food items such as pulses (dal), rice
and sugar have been on the upswing in recent months.

The annual rate of inflation in case of food articles has fallen to
10.19% for the week ended December 6. Being a year-on-year measure,
this does not give a clear picture of the immediate trend in retail
prices, which have moved up. The retail price for pulses, for
instance, has risen by an average Rs 8 per kg in the span of three
months. Retail prices of rice have also gone up by an average of Rs
2-3 per kg, while that of sugar reigns much higher than global prices
at Rs 20 per kg.

The price of arhar, which stood at Rs 43.50 per kg in August this
year, shot up to Rs 50 per kg in October-November. Moong prices, too,
went up to Rs 47 per kg by November from Rs 38 per kg in August.
Internationally, the prices of pulses and other commodities have been
going down in the same period. The price of arhar (tur), for instance,
came down in the first week of December to $480-540 per tonne compared
to $600-650 per tonne six months ago.

High input costs and correspondingly high government procurement
price, or minimum support price (MSP), for key staples such as wheat,
rice and pulses as well as coarse cereals and oilseeds are the main
reasons for high retail prices. State intervention and import
restrictions have also caused domestic prices to remain high. As many
as 11 states have imposed stock limits on arhar, forcing mills to
procure from new arrivals, thus pushing up prices.

A similar trend has been noticed in the case of wheat, the
international prices of which fell from $321.6 per tonne a year ago in
the first week of December to $275.8 per tonne six months ago and then
$187 per tonne a fortnight ago. In contrast, domestic wheat prices,
both in wholesale and retail, have remained virtually static or even
gone up slightly by Rs 1 per kg or so in the past few weeks, on the
back of the government’s continued reluctance to remove restrictions,
including futures trading. The MSP for wheat has gone up from Rs 640
per quintal in 2005-06 to Rs 1,000 per quintal in 2008-09. Wheat MSP
is expected to go up by at least another 6% in the current season.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/Economy/Indicators/Food_items_costlier_despite_cooling_inflation/articleshow/3864713.cms


Terror finger points at Pak army
SUJAN DUTTA
New Delhi, Dec. 20: The Centre is now viewing the Mumbai attacks as
the direct handiwork of Pakistan’s military that trained and armed the
militants and planned the strike in detail, top government sources are
saying.

This is a shift from India’s initial response when foreign minister
Pranab Mukherjee led the government in drawing a distinction at two
levels — first, between the government in Islamabad and rabid
“elements in Pakistan” and, second, between the civilian
administration led by Asif Zardari and the military led by Gen. Ashfaq
Parvez Kayani.

India’s security establishment has also begun a series of high-level
meetings to review the state of defence preparedness. There are
concerns that the military’s inventory is wanting. In one of the
meetings today, defence minister A.K. Antony authorised a fast-track
procurement of equipment for the coast guard.

The nuanced change in Delhi’s views follows the interrogation of
gunman Mohammed Ajmal, an analysis of the attack by ballistics
specialists in the military and the conclusion that the attackers were
trained professionally.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1081221/jsp/frontpage/story_10282329.jsp

Fuel prices hiked in Assam
A STAFF REPORTER
Guwahati, Dec. 20: Petrol and diesel prices will go up by a rupee per
litre from tomorrow with the Assam government today withdrawing a
relaxation given after the nationwide fuel price hike in June.

While petrol prices will go up from the existing Rs 46.63 to Rs 47.63
per litre, the price of diesel would go up to Rs 33.48 from Rs 32.48
per litre. The new prices come into effect from midnight.

A notification issued today by H.S. Das, the principal secretary of
finance (taxation), said the state government had withdrawn “the
partial exemption granted under sub-section (1) of Section 54 of the
Assam Value Added Tax Act, 2003.”

D. Bharali, chief retail sales manager of Indian Oil Corporation, told
The Telegraph that the company received the notification this
evening.

The Assam government had on June 6 issued a notification to slash the
price of petrol and diesel by a rupee each amid widespread protests
against the hike.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1081221/jsp/frontpage/story_10282002.jsp

Pak-US relations
By Ikramullah September 20, 2008

Ever since Pakistan's independence in 1947, Pak-US relations have been
revolving in a familiar cycle very similar to a majority of love
affairs, starting with infatuation, engagement, estrangement,
reconciliation followed by marriage which is often broken and finally
resulting in a divorce unless both sides are ready and willing to make
some sacrifice to save the relationship. Mutual benefits are the
cementing force for successful survival of such relationship between
the couple and their respective families. In state relationship, the
modern used is strategic partnership between two countries. The track
record of the Pak-US relations spread over the past 60 years has been
a cycle repeated many times over. After 9/11, a fresh start was made
when Pakistan, once again, became an ally of the US in its War On
Terror. More than five thousand members of Pakistan armed forces
including para-military forces and a much larger number of civilians
having lost their lives in the War. However, the US doesn't seem to be
satisfied with the performance of its only non-NATO ally. The rest is
history.
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/21-Sep-2008/PakUS-relations

'Secret' Document Reveals
Deep Pak-US Relations
Press Trust of India
9-3-2

New Delhi (PTI) -- A web newspaper run by a senior Pakistani
journalist has published a "secret" document purportedly containing
minutes of meetings between US and Pakistani officials and issues
which, it claims, are to be raised during President Pervez Musharraf's
forthcoming visit to United States.

The 'South Asia Tribune' claimed the document, a five-page 'non-
paper', was "leaked to the media" apparently to embarass Musharraf as
he prepared for his visit. It also printed the full document, claiming
that the issues would be discussed at the Pak-US Joint Working Group
(JWG) during the talks.

The document showed such a wide range of relations between the two
countries that the US presence would become inevitable at every
security point, the paper, edited by former editor of 'The News'
Shaheen Sehbai, said.

"Releasing such sensitive papers to the media, specially involving US-
Pak relations, also indicated the extent to which some officials were
feeling betrayed by Musharraf's policies", it said.

The paper defined the 'non-paper', in diplomatic parlance, as "the
text of language agreed between two sides in formal meetings". It also
contains informal minutes which are exchanged to firm up positions and
keep track of the specific issues to be discussed in specialised group
sessions.

According to the document, 16 items are listed as 'Action Items for
the USG' (US Government) and another 14 as 'Action Items for
GOP' (Govt of Pakistan).

Interestingly, the main subjects include US seeking Pakistani
assistance in the probe into the hijack of Indian Airlines flight
IC-814 to Kandahar.

The subjects also include counter-terrorism methods, training and
provision of sophisticated equipment to police, extradition of persons
wanted by either governments, the issue of Pakistani nationals in
American custody, exchange of information to probe and prosecute
organisations of smugglers and a draft Pakistani legislation on money
laundering.

The paper said the document showed that the range of US-Pak
cooperation was "so wide that almost at every security point, US
presence would become inevitable, either in the form of physical
troops or machines, cameras or spying equipment relaying images and
data to US officials sitting close by somewhere".


Another subject was improvement of law enforcement machinery in
Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where the main
anti-Al Qaeda operations are currently focussed. This issue would also
be part of the JWG discussion, according to the document published.

A key area of cooperation was the exchange of wanted persons by the
two governments, besides Pakistani Government agreeing to take steps
to speed up trial of four fugitives wanted by US for Panam plane crash
in 1973, the paper added.
PTI

Pakistan–United States relations
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Pakistan-United States relations)

Pakistan–United States relations are the transatlantic relations
between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the United States of
America. Pakistan has long been seen as an ally of the United States.
However the relationship is an unusual one. Historically, no ally of
the United States has faced as many sanctions from the US as Pakistan,
primarily because the relation has always been based on strategic
interests rather than genuine partnership. The United States
established diplomatic relations with Pakistan in 1949; reluctantly,
at first. Since the Eisenhower administration, however, Pakistan and
the US began developing more cosy relations. Both the countries had
their strategic interest in mind, US was able to secure its political
interests through Pakistan, while Pakistan got monetary aid.

The American agreement to provide economic and military assistance to
Pakistan and the latter's partnership in the Baghdad Pact, CENTO and
SEATO strengthened relations between the two nations. At the time, its
relationship with the U.S. was so close and friendly that it was
called the United States' "most-allied ally" in Asia. Pakistan however
felt deceived and ill-compensated for the risks incurred in supporting
the U.S. - after the U-2 Crisis of 1960, Soviet leader Nikita
Khrushchev had threatened the nuclear annihilation of Pakistani
cities. The U.S. suspension of military assistance during the 1965
Pakistan-India war generated a widespread feeling in Pakistan that the
United States was not a reliable ally. Even though the United States
suspended military assistance to both countries involved in the
conflict, the suspension of aid affected Pakistan much more severely.
Gradually, relations improved and arms sales were renewed in 1975.
Then, in April 1979, the United States cut off economic assistance to
Pakistan, except food assistance, as required under the Symington
Amendment to the U.S. Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, due to concerns
about Pakistan's nuclear program.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan-United_States_relations


TIME LINE: Chronology Of Pak-Us Relations

August 1947: The US welcomes the independence of India from British
rule, and becomes one of the first countries to recognise Pakistan.

1950: Pakistan’s first PM Liaquat Ali Khan turns down an invitation by
the former USSR for a visit to Moscow, opting to pay a state visit to
the US after being invited by Washington.

1954: Amid concerns about Soviet expansion, the US and Pakistan sign a
mutual defence agreement. Military aid to Pakistan between 1953 and
1961 totals $508 million.

1955: Pakistan joins two US-sponsored regional defence pacts — South
East Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) and the Central Treaty
Organisation (CTO). As a result, Islamabad receives nearly $2 billion
in US assistance from 1953 to 1961, including $508 million in military
aid.

1962: The Indo-China War sees the US reaching out to India and
offering it both military and economic aid. President Kennedy had
assured Pakistani President Mohammed Ayub Khan that if the United
States decided to give India military aid, he would talk with Khan
first. His failure to do so in November 1962 deeply offended the
Pakistani leader. To reassure Pakistan, Washington reaffirms its
previous assurances that it will come to Pakistan’s assistance in the
event of aggression from India

1965: Second war with India over Kashmir. The US cuts off aid to both
nations. The Pakistanis are embittered at what they consider a
friend’s betrayal

1971: The US again suspends military aid to Pakistan because of the
India-Pakistan conflict.

1975: The US resumes limited financial aid to Pakistan

1979: The US suspends military aid after Pakistan constructs a uranium
enrichment facility.

1980: he US pledges military assistance to Pakistan following Soviet
intervention in Afghanistan. It also turns northern Pakistan into a
base and conduit for US and Saudi-armed Afghan resistance fighters

1981: The US offers Pakistan a $3.2 billion, five-year economic and
military aid package. Pakistan becomes a key ally of the US in the
Afghan war.

1985: A section of the Foreign Assistance Act known as the Pressler
Amendment requires the president to certify to Congress that Pakistan
does not possess nuclear weapons.

1990: US military aid is again suspended under the provisions of the
Pressler Amendment.

1992: The US relaxes sanctions on Pakistan to allow food and economic
assistance to non-governmental organisations.

1998: Pakistan conducts its own nuclear tests after India explodes
several devices. The US sends Pakistan $140 in economic and
agricultural aid but imposes full restrictions on all non-humanitarian
aid because of continuing nuclear tests.

1999: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif overthrown in military coup led by
General Pervez Musharraf. The US sanctions limited aid to countries
under coup governments come into effect.

September 2001: President Musharraf assures President Bush of
‘unstinted cooperation in the fight against terrorism’, as Powell asks
Pakistan leaders if they were for or against the terrorists and their
supporters in Afghanistan. In exchange, the US lifts some sanctions
placed on Pakistan after the nuclear tests of 1998 and the coup of
1999. Large amounts of aid begin to flow to Pakistan. Congress grants
the president special waivers to coup-related sanctions on Pakistan
through 2003.

October 2001: US Under Secretary of State, Alan Larson, offers
preferential treatment to some of the Pakistani export items, discuss
generous treatment of Pakistani $3 billion debt at the Paris Club.
Promises that the US will not leave Pakistan in a lurch after
achieving its objectives in Afghanistan.

2002: The US cobbles together a $350 million package for Pakistan,
earmarking $512 million for military financing.

2003: President Bush announces a five-year, $3 billion package for
Pakistan. Legislation to both extend and to end the waiver of coup-
related sanctions is presented to Congress.

2004: The US declares Pakistan ‘major non-NATO ally’




2005: Following the tragic October earthquake, the US announces a $510
million commitment for earthquake relief and reconstruction.

2006: Diplomatic ties strengthen as President Bush visits Pakistan in
March.

2007: Washington tries to broker a power-sharing arrangement between
President Musharraf and opposition leader in exile Benazir Bhutto.

2008: President Musharraf resigns as Washington appears to be
distancing itself from him. His resignation signals the end of an
important era in US-Pakistan relations.

Credits: Council on Foreign Relations (www.cfr.org) and PBS
Foundation (www.pbs.org)
http://www.dawn.com/weekly/dmag/archive/080824/dmag2.htm


Geo News in trouble
LAHORE, Dec. 20: Private channel Geo TV News has been taken to court
for its investigative report that exposed the Pakistani origin of
Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone terrorist captured in the Mumbai attacks,
and a petition seeking registration of a case has been admitted. The
petition was filed by a ruling PPP leader for registering a case
against employees and owners of the channel for beaming the report
which had “damaged Pakistan’s image” across the world.
Pakistani human rights activist, Asma Jehangir, meanwhile said in New
Delhi that Pakistan’s flip-flops over the origins of the Mumbai
attackers was due to lack of leadership. PTI

Pakistan Nuclear Weapons
A Brief History of Pakistan's Nuclear Program
Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar
Ali Bhutto, who founded the program while he was Minister for Fuel,
Power and Natural Resources, and later became President and Prime
Minister. Shortly after the loss of East Pakistan in the 1971 war with
India, Bhutto initiated the program with a meeting of physicists and
engineers at Multan in January 1972.

India's 1974 testing of a nuclear "device" gave Pakistan's nuclear
program new momentum. Through the late 1970s, Pakistan's program
acquired sensitive uranium enrichment technology and expertise. The
1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan considerably advanced these
efforts. Dr. Khan is a German-trained metallurgist who brought with
him knowledge of gas centrifuge technologies that he had acquired
through his position at the classified URENCO uranium enrichment plant
in the Netherlands. Dr. Khan also reportedly brought with him stolen
uranium enrichment technologies from Europe. He was put in charge of
building, equipping and operating Pakistan's Kahuta facility, which
was established in 1976. Under Khan's direction, Pakistan employed an
extensive clandestine network in order to obtain the necessary
materials and technology for its developing uranium enrichment
capabilities.

In 1985, Pakistan crossed the threshold of weapons-grade uranium
production, and by 1986 it is thought to have produced enough fissile
material for a nuclear weapon. Pakistan continued advancing its
uranium enrichment program, and according to Pakistani sources, the
nation acquired the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987.

Pakistan Nuclear Weapons - A Chronology
Nuclear Tests
On May 28, 1998 Pakistan announced that it had successfully conducted
five nuclear tests. The Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission reported
that the five nuclear tests conducted on May 28 generated a seismic
signal of 5.0 on the Richter scale, with a total yield of up to 40 KT
(equivalent TNT). Dr. A.Q. Khan claimed that one device was a boosted
fission device and that the other four were sub-kiloton nuclear
devices.

On May 30, 1998 Pakistan tested one more nuclear warhead with a
reported yield of 12 kilotons. The tests were conducted at
Balochistan, bringing the total number of claimed tests to six. It has
also been claimed by Pakistani sources that at least one additional
device, initially planned for detonation on 30 May 1998, remained
emplaced underground ready for detonation.

Pakistani claims concerning the number and yields of their underground
tests cannot be independently confirmed by seismic means, and several
sources, such as the Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory have
reported lower yields than those claimed by Pakistan. Indian sources
have also suggested that as few as two weapons were actually
detonated, each with yields considerably lower than claimed by
Pakistan. However, seismic data showed at least two and possibly a
third, much smaller, test in the initial round of tests at the Ras Koh
range. The single test on 30 May provided a clear seismic signal.

DEVICE DATE YIELD
[announced] YIELD
[estimated]
[boosted device?] 28 May 1998 25-36 kiloton total 9-12 kiloton
Fission device 28 May 1998 12 kiloton
Low-yield device 28 May 1998 sub-kiloton --
Low-yield device 28 May 1998 sub-kiloton --
Low-yield device 28 May 1998 sub-kiloton --
Fission device 30 May 1998 12 kiloton 4-6 kiloton
Fission device not detonated 12 kiloton --
This table lists the nuclear tests that Pakistan claims to have
carried out in May 1998 as well as the announced yields. Other sources
have reported lower yields than those claimed by Pakistan. The
Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory reports that the total seismic
yield for the May 28th tests was 9-12 kilotons and that the yield for
the May 30th tests was 4-6 kilotons.


According to a preliminary analysis conducted at Los Alamos National
Laboratory, material released into the atmosphere during an
underground nuclear test by Pakistan in May 1998 contained low levels
of weapons-grade plutonium. The significance of the Los Alamos finding
was that Pakistan had either imported or produced plutonium undetected
by the US intelligence community. But Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory and other agencies later contested the accuracy of this
finding.

These tests came slightly more than two weeks after India carried out
five nuclear tests of its own on May 11 and 13 and after many warnings
by Pakistani officials that they would respond to India.

Pakistan's nuclear tests were followed by the February 1999 Lahore
Agreements between Prime Ministers Vajpayee and Sharif. The agreements
included confidence building measures such as advance notice of
ballistic missile testing and a continuation of their unilateral
moratoria on nuclear testing. But diplomatic advances made that year
were undermined by Pakistan's incursion into Kargil. Under US
diplomatic pressure, Prime Minister Sharif withdrew his troops, but
lost power in October 1999 due to a military coup in which Gen. Pervez
Musharraf took over.

Satellite Imagery of Pakistan's May 28 and May 30 nuclear testing
sites

Nuclear Infrastructure
Pakistan's nuclear program is based primarily on highly enriched
uranium (HEU), which is produced at the A. Q. Khan research laboratory
at Kahuta, a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility. The Kahuta
facility has been in operation since the early 1980s. By the early
1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation, and
Pakistan continued its pursuit of expanded uranium enrichment
capabilities.

In the 1990s Pakistan began to pursue plutonium production
capabilities. With Chinese assistance, Pakistan built the 40 MWt
(megawatt thermal) Khusab research reactor at Joharabad, and in April
1998, Pakistan announced that the reactor was operational. According
to public statements made by US officials, this unsafeguarded heavy
water reactor generates an estimated 8-10 kilotons of weapons grade
plutonium per year, which is enough for one to two nuclear weapons.
The reactor could also produce tritium if it were loaded with
lithium-6. According to J. Cirincione of Carnegie, Khusab's plutonium
production capacity could allow Pakistan to develop lighter nuclear
warheads that would be easier to deliver with a ballistic missile.

Plutonium separation reportedly takes place at the New Labs
reprocessing plant next to Pakistan's Institute of Nuclear Science and
Technology (Pinstech) in Rawalpindi and at the larger Chasma nuclear
power plant, neither of which are subject to IAEA inspection.

Nuclear Arsenal
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that Pakistan
has built 24-48 HEU-based nuclear warheads, and Carnegie reports that
they have produced 585-800 kg of HEU, enough for 30-55 weapons.
Pakistan's nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses
a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated
15-20 kg of material per warhead. According to Carnegie, Pakistan has
also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium,
which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons.

Pakistani authorities claim that their nuclear weapons are not
assembled. They maintain that the fissile cores are stored separately
from the non-nuclear explosives packages, and that the warheads are
stored separately from the delivery systems. In a 2001 report, the
Defense Department contends that "Islamabad's nuclear weapons are
probably stored in component form" and that "Pakistan probably could
assemble the weapons fairly quickly." However, no one has been able to
ascertain the validity of Pakistan's assurances about their nuclear
weapons security.

Pakistan's reliance primarily on HEU makes its fissile materials
particularly vulnerable to diversion. HEU can be used in a relatively
simple gun-barrel-type design, which could be within the means of non-
state actors that intend to assemble a crude nuclear weapon.

The terrorist attacks on September 11th raised concerns about the
security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. According to press reports,
within two days of the attacks, Pakistan's military began relocating
nuclear weapons components to six new secret locations. Shortly
thereafter, Gen. Pervez Musharraf fired his intelligence chief and
other officers and detained several suspected retired nuclear weapons
scientists, in an attempt to root out extremist elements that posed a
potential threat to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

Concerns have also been raised about Pakistan as a proliferant of
nuclear materials and expertise. In November, 2002, shortly after
North Korea admitted to pursuing a nuclear weapons program, the press
reported allegations that Pakistan had provided assistance in the
development of its uranium enrichment program in exchange for North
Korean missile technologies.

Foreign Assistance




In the past, China played a major role in the development of
Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure, especially when increasingly
stringent export controls in western countries made it difficult for
Pakistan to acquire materials and technology elsewhere. According to a
2001 Department of Defense report, China has supplied Pakistan with
nuclear materials and expertise and has provided critical assistance
in the construction of Pakistan's nuclear facilities.

In the 1990s, China designed and supplied the heavy water Khusab
reactor, which plays a key role in Pakistan's production of plutonium.
A subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation also
contributed to Pakistan's efforts to expand its uranium enrichment
capabilities by providing 5,000 custom made ring magnets, which are a
key component of the bearings that facilitate the high-speed rotation
of centrifuges.

According to Anthony Cordesman of CSIS, China is also reported to have
provided Pakistan with the design of one of its warheads, which is
relatively sophisticated in design and lighter than U.S. and Soviet
designed first generation warheads.

China also provided technical and material support in the completion
of the Chasma nuclear power reactor and plutonium reprocessing
facility, which was built in the mid 1990s. The project had been
initiated as a cooperative program with France, but Pakistan's failure
to sign the NPT and unwillingness to accept IAEA safeguards on its
entire nuclear program caused France to terminate assistance.

According to the Defense Department report cited above, Pakistan has
also acquired nuclear related and dual-use and equipment and materials
from the Former Soviet Union and Western Europe.

Intermittent US Sanctions
On several occasions, under the authority of amendments to the Foreign
Assistance Act, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Pakistan, cutting
off economic and military aid as a result of its pursuit of nuclear
weapons. However, the U.S. suspended sanctions each time developments
in Afghanistan made Pakistan a strategically important "frontline
state," such as the 1981 Soviet occupation and in the war on
terrorism.

Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine
Several sources, such as Jane's Intelligence Review and Defense
Department reports maintain that Pakistan's motive for pursuing a
nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat posed by its
principal rival, India, which has superior conventional forces and
nuclear weapons.

Pakistan has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). According to the Defense
Department report cited above, "Pakistan remains steadfast in its
refusal to sign the NPT, stating that it would do so only after India
joined the Treaty. Consequently, not all of Pakistan's nuclear
facilities are under IAEA safeguards. Pakistani officials have stated
that signature of the CTBT is in Pakistan's best interest, but that
Pakistan will do so only after developing a domestic consensus on the
issue, and have disavowed any connection with India's decision."

Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine, as evidenced by
President Pervez Musharraf's statements in May, 2002. Musharraf said
that Pakistan did not want a conflict with India but that if it came
to war between the nuclear-armed rivals, he would "respond with full
might." These statements were interpreted to mean that if pressed by
an overwhelming conventional attack from India, which has superior
conventional forces, Pakistan might use its nuclear weapons.

Sources and Resources
UN Nuclear Chief Warns of Global Black Market Mohammed ElBaradei
commenting on questions raised by the Khan confession, February 6,
2004.
Abdul Qadeer Khan "Apologizes" for Transferring Nuclear Secrets
Abroad, broadcast on Pakistani television, February 4, 2004.

Documents Indicate A.Q. Khan Offered Nuclear Weapon Designs to Iraq in
1990: Did He Approach Other Countries? By David Albright and Corey
Hinderstein, February 4, 2004

Deadly Arsenals, chapter on Paksitan - by Joseph Cirincione, John
B.Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar (Carnegie, June 2002). The chapter
discusses Pakistan's WMD, missile and aircraft capabilities. It also
presents the strategic context of the nuclear arms race between India
and Pakistan and the history of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program,
touching on foreign assistance from China and on-and-off US economic
assistance.

Proliferation: Threat and Response, Jan. 2001 - A Defense Department
report on the status of nuclear proliferation in South Asia. It
includes a brief historical background on the conflict between India
and Pakistan as well as an assessment of their nuclear capabilities,
chem/bio programs, ballistic missile programs and other means of
delivery.

ENHANCING NUCLEAR SECURITY IN THE COUNTER-TERRORISM STRUGGLE: India
and Pakistan as a New Region for Cooperation - by Rose Gottemoeller,
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 2002. This working
paper explores possible cooperative programs that could enhance the
security of Pakistan and India's nuclear arsenals, in order to prevent
the diversion of dangerous materials into the hands of terrorists or
rogue state leaders.

"Pakistan's Nuclear Forces, 2001" from NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin
of Atomic Scientists Jan/Feb 2002. A Two-page update on the state of
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. It makes rough estimates of the number of
nuclear weapons and the amount of fissile material in Pakistan's
possession and touches on fissile material production capabilities.
Also included is a brief discussion of delivery mechanisms such as
aircraft and missiles.

Monterey Institute Resource Page on India and Pakistan - last updated
July 7, 2000. This page has many useful links to relevant maps, news
articles and analytical pieces on India and Pakistan's nuclear
programs.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Pakistan resources

Pakistan Nuclear Weapons - A Chronology - a timeline of the Pakistan's
Nuclear Development program since 1965.

"The Threat of Pakistani Nuclear Weapons" - a CSIS report by Anthony
H. Cordesman (Last updated Nov. 2001). - This report tells the history
of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program and discusses China role in its
development. It also lists recent US intelligence reports on
Pakistan's activities.

From Testing to Deploying Nuclear Forces: The Hard Choices Facing
India and Pakistan - Gregory S. Jones. (Rand, 2000). "This issue paper
describes the requirements for a nuclear deterrent force in general
terms, discusses how the Indian-Pakistani nuclear relationship is
affected by China, and then considers the specific decisions that
still must be made in India and Pakistan."

Pakistan Nuclear Update, 2001 - Wisconsin Project. This three-page
document provides a brief summary of Pakistan's main nuclear sites and
an update on developments in Pakistan's nuclear program.

Securing Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal: Principles for Assistance - by
David Albright, Kevin O'Neill and Corey Hinderstein, Oct. 4, 2001. An
ISIS issue brief on the potential threats to the security of
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

The May 1998 India and Pakistan Nuclear Tests - by Terry C. Wallace,
Southern Arizona Seismic Observatory (SASO), 1998. This technical
paper provides a seismic analysis of India and Pakistan's 1998 nuclear
tests. It concludes that Pakistan's May 28 tests had a seismic yield
of 9-12 kt, and the May 30 test had a yield of 4-6 kt. An updated web
page on this report can be found here

Satellite Imagery of Pakistan's May 28 and May 30 nuclear testing
sites, hosted on the Center for Monitoring Research Commercial
Satellite Imagery Page

"Pakistan's Nuclear Dilemma" - September 23 2001, Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace. Transcripts from a Carnegie panel on
developments in Pakistan in the aftermath of the Septempber 11th
attacks. The panel included three speakers -- Shirin Tahir-Kheli,
George Perkovich and Rose Gottemoeller-- and was moderated by Joseph
Cirincione.

Chapter on Pakistan, from Tracking Nuclear Proliferation: A Guide in
Maps and Charts, 1998 by Rodney W. Jones, Mark G. McDonough, with Toby
F. Dalton and Gregory D. Koblentz (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment,
July 1998). This chapter documents the history of Pakistan's nuclear
program and tracks the development of its nuclear infrastructure. It
also covers in detail the sanctions the US imposed on Pakistan in
light of these developments, as well Pakistan's missile program.

"U.S. Appears to be Losing Track of Pakistan's Nuclear Program" and
"U.S. Now Believes Pakistan to use Khushab Plutonium in Bomb Program"
By Mark Hibbs July, 1998. Two brief articles written in the aftermath
of Paksistan's 1998 nuclear tests -- they discuss Pakistan's weapons
grade uranium and plutonium production capacities and the implications
for its nuclear arsenal.

"U.S. Labs at Odds on Whether Pakistani Blast Used Plutonium," by Dana
Priest Washington Post Sunday, January 17, 1999; Page A02. This
article discusses the controversy over the preliminary analysis
carried out by Los Alamos National Laboratory, which found that
plutonium traces had been released into the atomosphere during
Pakistan's May 30th underground nuclear test. Scientists at Lawrence
Livermore National Labs contested the accuracy of this finding and
alleged that Los Alamos had contaminated and then lost the air sample.
At the time, Los Alamos' findings were highly controversial because
they implied that Pakistan had obtained plutonium either though
imports or indigenous production, and there was uncertainty about
Pakistan's plutonium production capabilities. It is now public
knowledge that Pakistan can produce and isolate plutonium at its
Khusbab reactor and at the New Labs and Chasma separation facilities.

NUCLEARISATION OF SOUTH ASIA AND ITS REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
Munir Ahmed Khan REGIONAL STUDIES Autumn 1998
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/nuke/index.html

Are The US And Pakistan At War?
Most Of The 'Foreign Fighters' Liquidated
In Afghanistan Are Actually Pakistani

The Times of India
IndiaTimes.com
11-28-1


WASHINGTON - In all but name, the United States is at war with
Pakistan.

Despite all the protestations about military ruler Gen. Pervez
Musharraf's "bold and courageous stand" and Islamabad's status as a
frontline ally, there is a growing sense in Washington that Pakistan
has worked against US interests in Afghanistan. There is also anger in
sections of the administration over what is seen as Pakistani perfidy
over issues ranging from deployment of its troops, agents and private
militia in Afghanistan to its dangerous game of nuclear weapons
proliferation.

As a result, the Bush administration has begun to quietly punish
Pakistan even while publicly upholding a facade of goodwill, just as
Islamabad is also maintaining a pretense of cooperation in the fight
against terrorism while pursuing its own agenda. Several incidents
bear this out, including the latest episode involving two prominent
Pakistani nuclear scientists, who have now been detained again at
Washington's insistence over suspicion that they were involved in
planning an "Anthrax Bomb."

The US has also allowed the Northern Alliance to decimate those
euphemistically known as "foreign fighters" - who it now turns out are
mostly Pakistani irregulars and jehadists with some serving army
personnel and agents directing them. Western journalists in the region
have now exposed the smokescreen that referred to these fighters as
"Arab, Chechen and Pakistani," by reporting that they are almost
exclusively Pakistani. In some cases, Washington itself has joined in
by using air power to bomb the Pakistani fighters. US air power has
also been directed against jehadis operating in the tribal areas
within the Pakistani borders.

While publicly continuing to endorse and applaud the military regime
of Gen. Musharraf - to the extent of ignoring his announcement that he
will continue to be Pakistan's president even after the proposed
October 2002 elections - Washington has begun to ignore a growing list
of Pakistani gripes. Starting with Musharraf's plea to shorten the
bombing campaign to not to bomb the Taliban frontlines and not to
allow the Northern Alliance to take over Kabul, it now extends to the
request to allow evacuation of Pakistani fighters trapped in
Afghanistan.

In each case, the US has gone ahead and done pretty much what suits
its war aims, forcing Musharraf to fall in line and handle the
domestic fall-out. On the issue of safe passage to Pakistani fighters
though, there appears to have been a split in the administration.
Reports that the US winked at Pakistani aircraft evacuating from
Kunduz its armed forces personnel, agents, and jehadis with domestic
connections, persist. Officially, state department mandarins insist
they have no knowledge of any such evacuation but western reporters in
the region have confirmed the evacuation based on first-hand accounts
from locals.

However in the case of other fleeing Pakistani fighters, US officials,
especially those manning the war machine and therefore less connected
to diplomatic concerns that the state department is sensitive to, have
made it clear they would rather see them surrender or die than head
back home to Pakistan. Comments to this effect, especially one from
Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, has raised hackles in Pakistan
where some officials termed it "callous."

In one instance at least, accounts by Northern Alliance fighters that
they executed scores of Pakistani fighters "before the eyes of US
military personnel," after they refused to surrender, has enraged
Islamabad. Several prominent Pakistani commentators have called for an
investigation into the episode. But US officials in Islamabad say the
deaths occurred in a pitched battle and not in a massacre. "To try to
make it appear as a massacre does not accord with the facts,"
spokesman Kenton Keith told reporters.

The strange dissonance between the official positions of the two sides
and the private differences is the subject of much discussion in
Washington diplomatic parlours and among its power brokers. "It's like
a bad marriage. Or like two colleagues who mistrust each other but are
forced to work together," a Congressional aide who works on regional
issues said.

Pakistanis are working overtime to salvage the situation. It's
energetic ambassador Maleeha Lodhi is turning on the charm and
deploying its familiar supporters and lobbyists, many of them relics
from the Cold War era who are tapping into their old contacts in the
Republican establishment.

But they are weighing against the overwhelming reports coming in
everyday from the war front showing Pakistanis fighting the US, with
or without official connivance. "It's not a happy situation," one US
official conceded in private. "We have to work our way through a lot
of problems."

> http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=2008798215

The Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear Use Between India and Pakistan
Strategic Insights, Volume II, Issue 2 (February 2003)
by Peter R. Lavoy and MAJ Stephen A. Smith


Strategic Insights is a monthly electronic journal produced by the
Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School in
Monterey, California. The views expressed here are those of the author
(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of NPS, the Department
of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

Click here for a PDF version of this article.


Although the Indian and Pakistani governments strongly desire to avoid
a fourth war, the coercive diplomacy pursued by each side has brought
them to the brink of major conflict on more than one occasion in
recent years. Today tensions remain high, and war is a distinct
possibility. Should hostilities break out, what are the chances that
the fighting could be confined to the use of conventional military
force? Although both Indian and Pakistani leaders would do everything
in their power to avoid using nuclear weapons, there are three
situations in which a large-scale conventional conflict between India
and Pakistan could inadvertently escalate to nuclear warfare because
of the nations' asymmetries in doctrine and military capabilities.[1]

Conventional Force Comparison
The conventional military balance is tilted far in India's favor.
India has achieved numerical and qualitative superiority in many
military categories, particularly in mechanized ground forces and in
attack aircraft. It has a two-to-one advantage in tanks and a three-to-
one advantage in modern tanks. India also has true infantry fighting
vehicles, giving its mechanized infantry much more firepower and
mobility than the Pakistani infantry. The two-to-one overall advantage
in aircraft grows to almost a six-to-one advantage when one compares
just the most modern and capable aircraft - a category in which
Pakistan lost its earlier edge after over a decade of U.S.-led
international sanctions.[2] This disadvantage is very significant
because Pakistan has little strategic depth; that is, many of its
strategic assets are close to its border with India.

Both India and Pakistan have offensively oriented conventional
military doctrines. India has developed an offensive-defensive
military doctrine that calls for aggressive offensive action to pre-
empt or counter-attack the enemy. Currently, India is exploring the
concept of limited conventional war based on the notion of strategic
space between low-intensity conflicts and full-scale conventional war.
This concept is fueled by political and public pressure within India
to launch conventional military strikes against Pakistan in
retaliation for Pakistan's alleged support of terrorism.[3] The
Pakistani army also relies on an offensive-defensive strategy, which
is characterized by retaining adequate reserves at successive force
levels, surprise, and aggressive leadership. This strategy calls for
the Pakistan army to detect the initial enemy thrust, take effective
counter measures to limit penetration, and simultaneously attack the
adversary to capture or threaten a strategic objective.[4]

Strategic Nuclear Balance
Each country possesses a stockpile of nuclear weapons components and
could assemble and deploy several nuclear weapons within a few days to
a week.[5] The size, composition, and operational status of each
nuclear arsenal are closely guarded secrets, but sufficient public
information exists to make general assumptions about the strategic
balance in South Asia.[6]

Assuming that the Cirus and Dhruva research reactors produce 25-40 kg
of bomb-grade plutonium annually, by the end of 2002 India could have
stockpiled between 280-600 kg of weapon-grade plutonium.[7] Although
India also has a program to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU), it
is not known if the program has managed to produce weapon-grade HEU.
Experts assess that India could require as little as 5 kg and as much
as 7 kg of plutonium per weapon. Considering the worst- and best-case
assumptions about Indian weapon design, it could possess enough
fissile material for between 40 and 120 weapons, with 70 as the median
estimate.

Unlike India, which relies on plutonium for its weapons, Pakistan's
nuclear program is based on HEU. If Pakistan's Kahuta enrichment plant
is able to produce 80-140 kg of weapon-grade uranium per year,
Pakistan today could have 815-1230 kg available for weapons
production. The amount required for a bomb is believed to be 12-25 kg,
depending on the weapon design Pakistan employs. In addition, an
unsafeguarded heavy-water research reactor recently constructed at
Khushab produces plutonium that could be reprocessed to make a few
nuclear weapons annually. Adding together its possible plutonium and
HEU inventories, Pakistan could have enough fissile material to
produce between 35 and 95 weapons, with 60 as the median estimate.


Each state has various aircraft and ballistic missiles that could be
used to deliver nuclear weapons. In 2001, DOD assessed that India
would most likely employ fighter-bomber aircraft for delivery because
its ballistic missiles probably were not yet ready. The air force has
several aircraft that could be employed for this mission, but the best
suited would be the Jaguar, Mirage-2000, MiG-27, or Su-30. India has
deployed short-range Prithvi 1 missiles that are capable of carrying a
1000 kg warhead (the presumed maximum size of a nuclear device), but
because of Prithvi's restricted range, India will probably turn to its
new solid-propellant Agni 1 missile, which has a 700-900 km range and
was rushed into development after the 1999 Kargil conflict. The Agni 1
and the 2000-3000 km-range Agni 2 missile are likely to become India's
preferred missile platforms when they become operational.

Pakistan has placed a high priority on acquiring ballistic missiles to
offset India's conventional military advantages and to ensure reliable
delivery of nuclear weapons. Although the Pakistan Air Force F-16 and
Mirage 5 aircraft probably are capable of nuclear delivery, the liquid-
fuel Ghauri 1 and 2 missiles developed with North Korean assistance,
and the solid-fuel Shaheen 1 and 2 missiles developed with Chinese
help, are more likely choices.[8]


India's draft nuclear doctrine, published in August 1999, is based on
a retaliatory, no-first-use policy.[9] The doctrine casts Indian
nuclear forces principally as a deterrent against a nuclear attack on
India. Pakistan has not publicly announced an official nuclear
doctrine, but it is concerned with deterring India from taking
advantage of its conventional superiority. Pakistan appears to have
adopted a nuclear first-use policy to deter India from using its
conventional military superiority.[10]

Survivability at Risk
Large-scale conventional warfare between India and Pakistan has the
potential to threaten the survival of Pakistan's strategic nuclear
forces. However, limited Indian attacks, such as a retaliatory strike
on the ground or through the air, would not serve as a real threat to
Pakistan's strategic weapon systems.

The asymmetries of strategic depth and offensive military capability
give India an operational advantage, and may create a situation in
which India's conventional ground or air forces come into contact with
Pakistan's strategic nuclear forces. Pakistan's shorter-range Hatf 3/
M-11 ballistic missiles must be stationed fairly far forward to reach
strategic targets in India, perhaps leaving them vulnerable to both
air and ground attack. The same is true of Pakistan's forward
airbases, which are within easy striking distance of the border. This
is a very troubling scenario because Pakistan places great emphasis on
its strategic nuclear forces to deter a large-scale conventional
attack by India. The survival of Pakistan's strategic forces is
critical to Pakistan, and a threat to them could place pressure on
Pakistan to launch a nuclear attack while the strategic forces are
still intact and capable of making a credible impression upon India.

India's greater strategic depth allows it to disperse its strategic
nuclear forces to areas beyond the normal range of enemy ground and
air operations. Longer-range platforms, such as the SU-30 aircraft and
the Agni 2 missiles, further decrease Indian vulnerability. When
combined with India's presumed retaliatory-only nuclear doctrine, this
would seem to minimize the possibility of Pakistan degrading India's
strategic deterrent capability so severely that India is pushed into a
"use them or lose them" situation.

Command and Control Threatened
Large-scale conventional warfare between India and Pakistan also could
threaten vital strategic command and control functions. This is
particularly true for Pakistan since India has made a major investment
in intelligence gathering and precision-strike capability.[11] There
also may be a significant overlap between Pakistan's normal
conventional operational command and control structures that would be
subject to attack in a large-scale war and its strategic command and
control structure. If Pakistan lost command and control of its
strategic forces, would national command authorities consider ordering
the use of remaining strategic nuclear forces while they could still
affect some degree of deterrence?

Pakistan's presumed inability to identify and attack India's C4I
probably precludes any appreciable loss of command and control over
India's strategic force during a conventional war. This is reinforced
by a several factors, including India's reliance on negative control
features, and its greater strategic depth. A conventional attack on
India's command and control structures probably would cause only a
delay in retaliatory nuclear strikes, and not lead to the inadvertent
use of nuclear weapons.

There are no indications that India has pre-delegated nuclear release
authority. However, New Delhi might find that its strategic command
and control functions are unable to cope with the effects of a full-
scale conventional war. Under such circumstances India's senior
leadership may have to cobble together a system while under pressure.
There are no indications that Pakistan has pre-delegated nuclear
release authority. However, it too may find that its strategic command
and control functions are unable to cope with the effects of a full-
scale war. Pakistan would be under tremendous pressure to create a
workable system if its strategic command and control system is at
risk. Pakistan's reliance on nuclear deterrence could force it to
adopt pre-delegation of nuclear release authority if there were no
other method to ensure delivery.

Fear of Pre-emption
Large-scale conventional warfare between India and Pakistan almost
certainly would include air and ballistic missile attacks. Attacks by
these inherently dual-use systems have the potential to be interpreted
as pre-emptive attacks to destroy or neutralize the adversary's
nuclear capability. This is especially true for Pakistan since India
has invested heavily in improving its intelligence gathering and
precision-strike capability. India also has made a major investment in
defensive measures, including a limited ballistic missile defense.[12]
Pakistan may believe that India is trying to gain the ability to
launch a pre-emptive attack and deny Pakistan the ability to counter
with an effective second-strike with a reduced force. Could this
concern lead Pakistan to adopt a launch-on-warning or launch-under-
attack posture where any Indian air- or ballistic missile attack could
be interpreted as a pre-emptive strike and cause Pakistan to launch
its nuclear weapons?

Pakistan's limited ability to identify and attack India's strategic
nuclear assets probably precludes any appreciable loss of India's
retaliatory capability even if Pakistan launched a pre-emptive attack.
This condition is reinforced by India's greater strategic depth, and
its superior air and ballistic missile defenses. An air- or ballistic
missile attack on India probably would elicit a strong response, but
probably not a nuclear response.

Conclusion


India and Pakistan do not want war; and they certainly do not want to
fight a nuclear war. As strong as this desire is, however, New Delhi
and Islamabad are caught in a spiral of tension and mistrust that
could cause the next regional crisis to flair into armed conflict. If
India and Pakistan do find themselves engaged in a large-scale
conventional war, escalation to a nuclear exchange probably would be
averted because of the strategic balance that now obtains. However,
their asymmetrical conventional force capabilities and doctrines could
create pressures for one side to launch nuclear weapons, even if they
would prefer not to. The three scenarios of inadvertent war outlined
above show how India's superior conventional military power might so
seriously degrade the Pakistan national command authority's confidence
in its nuclear deterrent that a nuclear war begins that nobody wants.
Even if the risk of inadvertent nuclear war is judged to be low, steps
should be taken to ensure that India and Pakistan do not become
embroiled in even a limited war. The United States can play a
constructive role in the region by taking steps to help keep the peace
and reorienting its arms transfer policy to help stabilize the
military balance.

http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/feb03/southAsia2.asp

I think south east asia is most dangrous region in world.Both
countries alreay fought three wars and present insurgency in mubai
could be starting point of fourth war .

Unfortunately both countries have majority population living under
line of poverty.

http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=160477
City not beyond terror radar’

Statesman News Service
KOLKATA, Dec. 20: The police commissioner, Mr Goutam Mohan
Chakrabarti, today acknowledged that the city is not “beyond the
terror radar”.
Though police have not received a specific threat regarding a terror
attack in the city, there is no reason to believe that Kolkata is
beyond the terror radar, he said, while interacting with members of
the business community at the Merchant Chamber of Commerce (MCC) this
morning.
To strengthen counter-terrorism measures, the city police has sent a
proposal to the state government to set up a combat battalion, he
added. He informed business people that the National Security Guard
(NSG) has agreed to set up a unit in the city soon. The city police is
fully prepared to deal with any terror act, Mr Chakrabarti said,
adding that several counter-terrorism measures have been taken and
certain proposals have been moved to the state government for its
approval. Police officers are being trained with the help of Indian
Army jawans and BSF. Efforts have been made to set up a full-fledged
training institute in the city, he said.
Another proposal to deploy 685 additional police officers in Metro
Railway stations has been cleared by the state government and the same
has been moved to the railway ministry for clearance, Mr Chakrabarti
said. Expenditures including salaries of the additional police
officers in Metro Railways would be shared by the Centre and the state
government equally. He said the city police has decided to procure
bulletproof jackets and other equipment. Orders of purchase have
already been placed. Major hotels and clubs have been brought under
strong police surveillance.
Since it is not possible for the state government to arm each
constable with sophisticated arms to take on terrorists, the city
police authorities have also decided to form quick response teams to
ensure that police reach any spot in the city within the shortest span
of time. Apart from this, the system of sharing intelligence input
among sister agencies is being upgraded, Mr Chakrabarti said.

Farmers threaten to start cultivation on acquired land

BOLPUR, Dec. 20: Farmers from Bolpur's five villages, led by Sibpur
Krishi Jomi Bachao Committee (SKJBC), today broke the boundary fence
of a 25-acre plot acquired by the state government.
The West Bengal Industrial Infrastructure Development Corporation
(WBIIDC) had acquired around 300 acres of land in 2001 for setting up
various housing and hospitality projects. However, till date no
project has come up on that land. The farmers decided that if the
government fails to set up any industry on the acquired land within a
month, they would start cultivation there as before. The SKJBC further
alleged that 75 of the 245 farmers whose land have been acquired have
not received any compensation so far. The committee today also marked
out land belonging to farmers who have not received compensation so
far.
“We have appealed to the district administration several times to set
up industry on the acquired land or hand over the land that has not
been used for the past seven years to the farmers. But our appeals
have fallen to deaf ears. Hence we broke the fence and will soon start
cultivation there,” said Mr Mozammel Hoque, leader, SKJBC. SNS
http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=6&theme=&usrsess=1&id=237010

Farmers forgotten in state-Centre blame game

Statesman News Service
KOLKATA, Dec. 20: The Marxist government seems to have a penchant for
blaming the Central government while doing nothing to solve problems
at its end.
In one such incidence, the state government has blamed the Centre for
not providing freight charges of chemical fertilisers at the secondary
phase, while sitting tight on the proposal of giving immediate relief
to the farmers.
With regular complaints of smuggling and black market for fertilisers
coming from the districts for the past few months, the state
agriculture department had sent a proposal to the state finance
department that a special fund be created to “incur the expenditure”
of transport charges as an interim measure which can be later
reimbursed from the Centre. The proposal called for Rs 75 crore, to
give relief to the farmers till the Centre acknowledged its demand of
paying secondary transport charges, that is from railway rakes to
farmers’ doorstep by means of road transport. The proposal was also
included in a policy paper on fertiliser, published recently by the
agriculture department.
The proposal was sent to the finance department at the end of October
but the agriculture department is yet to hear anything about it.
Instead, in a recent meeting with representatives of different
political parties on the issue, the state government allowed the
dealers to charge that “extra” from the farmers above the maximum
retail price (MRP).
The finance minister, Mr Asim Dasgupta, has been demanding that with
the reduction in fertiliser prices in the international market, the
Centre should pay the secondary freight charges. Apart from waiting
for the Centre to pay the secondary freight charges, the state
government is only talking of strengthening the monitoring. Hence the
poor farmers’ woes are likely to continue.

History
In the 1990s India woke up to a spate of farmers suicides. The first
state where suicides were reported was Maharashtra. Soon newspapers
began to report similar occurrences from Andhra Pradesh. In the
beginning it was believed that most of the suicides were happening
among the cotton growers, especially those from Vidarbha. A look at
the figures given out by the State Crime Records Bureau, however, was
sufficient to indicate that it was not just the cotton farmer but
farmers as a professional category were suffering, irrespective of
their holding size.[1] Moreover, it was not just the farmers from
Vidarbha but all over Maharashtra who showed a significantly high
suicide rate. The government appointed a number of inquiries to look
into the causes of farmers suicide and farm related distress in
general. Subsequently Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Vidarbha
and promised a package of Rs. 11,000 crores to be spent by the
government in Vidarbha. The families of farmers who had committed
suicide were also offered an ex gratia grant to the tune of Rs. 1 lakh
by the government. This figure kept on varying, depending on how much
flak the government was facing from the media and the opposition
parties for being uncaring towards the farmers' plight. Such a high
figure was ironic considering that the net average income of a family
of farmers in this region was approximately Rs. 2700 per acre per
annum. The economic plight of the farmer might be illustrated with the
fact that a farmer having as much as 15 acres (61,000 m2) of land, and
hence considered a well-off farmer, had an income of just a little
more than what he would have earned were he to merely get the legal
minimum wage for all of the 365 days of the year. Little wonder that
despite government efforts at pumping in more money into the suicide
belt the suicide epidemic among farmers remained unabated through
2006-07. The problems of the farmers were quite comprehensive. There
was little credit available. What was available was very costly. There
was no advise on how best to conduct agriculture operations. Income
through farming was not enough to meet even the minimum needs of a
farming family. Support systems like free health facilities from the
government were virtually non-existent. Traditionally support systems
in the villages of India had been provided by the government. However,
due to a variety of reasons the government had either withdrawn itself
from its supportive role or plain simple misgovernance had allowed
facilities in the villages to wither away.[2]

Agriculture is the mainstay of the state of Maharashtra. It is the
main occupation of the people. Both food crops and cash crops are
grown in the state. The main food crops of Maharashtra are mangoes,
grapes, bananas, oranges, wheat, rice, jowar, bajra, and pulses. Cash
crops include groundnut, cotton, sugarcane, turmeric, and tobacco.

The total irrigated area which has been used for crop cultivation is
33, 500 square kilometers. Large areas of the state have been brought
under fruit cultivation. The fruits which have added to the treasury
of the state are the Nagpur oranges, oranges of Bathplug, the Alphonso
Mangoes and the grapes of Nashik.

The agricultural growth rate has increased to 1.97%. To make things
more accessible for the farmers the interest rate for the loans has
been decreased to 6%. A very important problem is the dependence on
rainfall. To lessen the dependence irrigation facilities have been
extended to an additional area of 1.4 lakh hectares. To provide relief
to stressed farmers who have been affected by the drought conditions,
Rs.5200 crore has been sanctioned by the central government. This has
been done to six districts of the Vidharba region. To compensate the
crop losses Rs367 crore has been granted to the poor farmers. Apart
from that stringent actions have been taken on 2821 illegal money
lenders.

Research on agriculture and agricultural products needs to be
conducted to tackle the diverse agro – climatic differences. Apart
from that the transport and communication services, infrastructure
development in the rural area has helped in developing the
agricultural production of the state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farmers'_suicides_in_India

1.5 lakh farmers committed suicide between 1997 and 2005

November 22, 2007

A recent study conducted by Professor K Nagaraj, a senior economist
specialising in rural development and agrarian issues at the Madras
Institute of Development Studies on farmers' suicides, has come out
with startling revelations.
His study says that 1.5 lakh farmers committed suicide between 1997
and 2005, and two thirds of them are from four states -- Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh (including the present
Chhattisgarh). In this interview with contributing editor Shobha
Warrier, he talks in detail about the study and its findings.

Why did you do a study on farmers' suicides in India?

One of the reasons was that I have been working on rural development
and agrarian issues for a very long time. In fact, that is my major
area of specialisation. It was quite clear from the secondary data as
well as the surveys I took that there was a deep crisis in the
agricultural sector. I also felt that this crisis is related to the
epidemic of farmers' suicides in the country.

It so happened that the Andhra Pradesh government set up a committee
to study the farm conditions and suggest some remedial measures. They
put me on the committee. When we went around the drier parts of Andhra
Pradesh, we saw the depth of the crisis.

At that time, I was not contemplating working on the secondary data.
Then Dr Lakshmi Vijayakumar of Sneha, an organisation that works with
suicide victims, contacted me and asked me whether I could put
together a study on farmers' suicide. That was because they were
organising a seminar on pesticide-suicides, and pesticide suicides and
framers' suicides are closely linked.

I then decided to see what the official government data said. That is
how I started working on this study in March-April 2007.

What is the official data source that you based your study on?

Every year the National Crime Records Bureau comes out with a report
on accidental deaths and suicides in India. This is a home ministry
publication. They give reasonably detailed data on suicides for the
entire country. Earlier they used to give suicide data in general but
now, we get separate data from each state.

Why did you decide to make your study from 1997-2005?




It is only from 1995 that they have created a special category for
farmers, what they call cultivators. Till then the category was not
there. When I looked into the data of 1996 and 1997, I found that some
of the states had not started reporting on the farmers' studies.
http://specials.rediff.com/news/2007/nov/22sld1.htm

Economy of Pakistan
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
, agriculture and other industries. It is the 25th largest economy in
the world.

The economy has suffered in the past from decades of internal
political disputes, a fast growing population, mixed levels of foreign
investment, and a costly, ongoing confrontation with neighboring
India. However, IMF-approved government policies, bolstered by foreign
investment and renewed access to global markets, have generated solid
macroeconomic recovery the last decade. Substantial macroeconomic
reforms since 2000, most notably at privatizing the banking sector
have helped the economy. Pakistan has seen a growing middle class
population since then and poverty levels have decreased by 10% since
2001.

GDP growth, spurred by gains in the industrial and service sectors,
remained in the 6-8% range in 2004-06. In 2005, the World Bank named
Pakistan the top reformer in its region and in the top 10 reformers
globally. [4]

Islamabad has steadily raised development spending in recent years,
including a 52% real increase in the budget allocation for development
in FY07, a necessary step toward reversing the broad underdevelopment
of its social sector. The fiscal deficit - the result of chronically
low tax collection and increased spending, including reconstruction
costs from the devastating Kashmir earthquake in 2005 was manageable.
Development in urban areas of Pakistan has remained high but is low in
rural areas.

Inflation remains the biggest threat to the economy, jumping to more
than 9% in 2005 before easing to 7.9% in 2006. In 2008, following the
surge in global petrol prices inflation in Pakistan has reached as
high as 25.0%. The central bank is pursuing tighter monetary policy
while trying to preserve growth. Foreign exchange reserves are
bolstered by steady worker remittances, but a growing current account
deficit - driven by a widening trade gap as import growth outstrips
export expansion - could draw down reserves and dampen GDP growth in
the medium term.[5]

Since the beginning of 2008, Pakistan's economic outlook has taken a
dramatic downturn. Security concerns stemming from the nation's role
in the War on Terror have created great instability and led to a
decline in FDI from a height of approximately $8 bn to $3.5bn for the
current fiscal year. Concurrently, the insurgency has forced massive
capital flight from Pakistan to the Gulf. Combined with high global
commodity prices, the dual impact has shocked Pakistan's economy, with
gaping trade deficits, high inflation and a crash in the value of the
Rupee, which has fallen from 60-1 USD to over 80-1 USD in a few
months. For the first time in years, it may have to seek external
funding as Balance of Payments support. Consequently, S&P lowered
Pakistan’s foreign currency debt rating to CCC-plus from B, just
several notches above a level that would indicate default. Pakistan’s
local currency debt rating was lowered to B-minus from BB-minus.
Credit agency Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook on Pakistan’s
debt to negative from stable due to political uncertainty, though it
maintained the country’s rating at B2.The cost of protection against a
default in Pakistan’s sovereign debt trades at 1,800 basis points,
according to its five year credit default swap, a level that indicates
investors believe the country is already in or will soon be in
default.

The middle term however may be less turbulent, depending on the
political environment. The EIU estimates that inflation should drop
back to single digits in 2010, and that growth should pick up to over
5% per annum by 2011. Although less then the previous 5 year average
of 7%, it would represent a overcoming of the present crisis wherein
growth is a mere 3.5-4%. [6]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Pakistan

comment: Reviving Pakistan’s economy —Masood Ahmed

More financing is urgently needed to strengthen Pakistan’s resilience
to potential shocks, help finance the expanded social safety net, and
allow for higher spending on development programmes

Pakistan’s economy is at a critical juncture. Inflation has doubled
and is now running at 25 percent, the value of the rupee has fallen by
a third since March, and foreign exchange reserves are down to
worrying levels. All this is occurring against the backdrop of the
worst international economic crisis in sixty years.

These are precisely the type of circumstances in which member
countries look for support from the IMF. And so did Pakistan —
resulting in the approval on November 24 by the IMF’s Board of
Directors of a $7.6 billion loan in support of the authorities’
economic stabilisation programme.

The content and conditionality of the IMF’s financing is fully set out
in the public eye. All the loan documentation is available on the
IMF’s website. Here, let us examine how the IMF sees the economic and
financial challenges facing Pakistan, and the contribution it can make
to help address them.

The first point to stress is that given the difficult international
economic situation and the weaknesses inherent in Pakistan’s own
economy, overcoming the current economic crisis will require hard
choices and sustained action over the coming year. And no doubt this
will entail some economic hardship — albeit much less severe than the
disruption and job losses that would have come from a full-blown
economic crisis. Fortunately, the strategy set out by the Government,
on which the IMF’s support is based, provides a sound basis for
addressing the challenges.

The objectives are clear: first, restore overall economic stability
and confidence by acting on key macroeconomic imbalances, and second,
do so in a manner that ensures social stability and adequate support
for the poor during the adjustment process.

Translating these objectives into concrete policy decisions will
entail difficult tradeoffs within the Government’s programme. For
example, it is clear that the fiscal deficit, which has risen to the
unsustainable level of 7.4 percent of GDP in 2007-08, will have to be
brought down to a more manageable 4.2 percent in 2008/09 — in line
with what it was two years ago.

Fiscal consolidation is essential to put public finances on a
sustainable path and eliminate State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) financing
of the government. But achieving this will require implementation of
policies to phase out energy subsidies, prioritise government
spending, and strengthen revenue mobilisation through tax policy and
administration measures.

Even with these changes on the fiscal side, there will be a continued
need for financing the government deficit. Over the past two years,
much of this financing has come from money creation by the SBP, in
turn fuelling inflation and the dramatic loss of foreign exchange
reserves. The Government’s programme commits to switch deficit
financing from the SBP to commercial banks, but this will require an
increase in interest rates, which has its own cost to the private
sector. Again, there is a hard choice between controlling inflation,
which hurts the poor, and raising interest rates, which affects
borrowers.

A second point is that while the necessary macroeconomic tightening
will clearly involve some pain, it is important that the burden of
adjustment should fall least on the most vulnerable members of
Pakistani society. And that is why for the IMF it was crucial that the
Government’s programme includes key social protection measures.
Expenditure on the social safety net will be increased to protect the
poor through both cash transfers and targeted electricity subsidies.
And to draw upon the best international experience in using safety
nets to reach the needy, Pakistan is working with the World Bank to
prepare a more comprehensive and better-targeted social safety net
programme.

Third, it is important to point out that the programme — and its
conditionality — is based on the targets and measures that the
authorities have themselves set for the next two years. And all the
conditions associated with the IMF’s loan are transparently set out in
the public domain. The IMF is convinced that the best-implemented
programmes are the ones that are home grown and fully owned by the
country.

Fourth, the success of the programme hinges on sustained and forceful
implementation. IMF financial support will help relieve Pakistan’s
immediate balance-of-payments needs, but strong and determined
implementation of the reforms included in the programme will allow the
country to get its economy back on a sustainable path. Strengthening
public sector institutions and governance will need to be a key
dimension of this effort. In this respect, building domestic consensus
around the measures included in the authorities’ package constitutes a
key factor in the period ahead.

Finally, while the key to success lies in the hands of the Government
and people of Pakistan, the international community also needs to
support these efforts. To this end, the financing from the IMF will
help to ease the path of adjustment and will provide a strong signal
of support to the international community. Of the $7.6 billion loan,
$3.1 billion has already been made available by the IMF to strengthen
the reserve position. And the regular monitoring of the economy by the
IMF will show how the macroeconomic objectives set by the Government
are being met and whether they need to be adjusted in the light of
changing circumstances.

Alongside the IMF’s financial support, other international agencies
and bilateral donors are also providing support, but more financing is
urgently needed to strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to potential
shocks, help finance the expanded social safety net, and allow for
higher spending on development programmes. The IMF stands ready to
participate in any donor meeting to provide the economic and financial
analysis that could underpin this expanded support. Working together,
we can help Pakistan revitalise its economy and protect the poor
during these difficult times.

The writer is Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department of the
International Monetary Fund. This article was written exclusively for
Daily Times
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C12%5C18%5Cstory_18-12-2008_pg3_5




Don't sweep 26/11 attacks under the carpet: US to Pak

Islamabad: In a tough message to Pakistan, the US has said it is not
satisfied with what Islamabad has done so far for eradicating
terrorism from its soil after the Mumbai attack, which was not an
ordinary event which can be ‘swept under the carpet’. The message was
conveyed by top American officials to Pakistani National Security
Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani, who was summoned to Washington as the US
government was "getting increasingly frustrated with what it views as
Islamabad's shifty and shifting position on the Mumbai attacks and
their aftermath", the Daily Times newspaper reported. Durrani on
Saturday concluded his unannounced three-day US visit during which he
met Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, his American counterpart
Stephen Hadley and Pentagon officials.

A senior diplomatic source familiar with the talks said: "The curt
message that Mr Durrani and the Pakistani team received from the
Americans was: this is not 2002 and you cannot do what President
(Pervez) Musharraf did after 9/11...In the past, you swept everything
under the carpet while the problems were allowed to fester. No more."

In a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, Rice said on
Wednesday that what Pakistan had done so far to catch those
responsible for the Mumbai attacks was not enough. She said her
message to the Pakistani leadership was "...you need to deal with the
terrorism problem. And it's not enough to say these are non-state
actors. If they're operating from Pakistani territory, then they have
to be dealt with."

A "much stronger message" was conveyed by Rice during a meeting with
Durrani, US and diplomatic sources were quoted as saying by 'Dawn'
newspaper.

The Pakistani team, which included Ambassador Hussain Haqqani, learnt
from Rice and Hadley that the US is not satisfied with what Pakistan
"had done so far for eradicating terrorism from its soil".



Enough evidence given, Islamabad must act: Pranab


Taking a tough stance, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee on
Sunday said that Pakistan had been given enough evidence regarding the
Mumbai terror attacks and ‘Islamabad must act’.

"Pakistan has been contradicting its statements. Enough evidence has
been given to Pakistan. Pakistan must cooperate and not contradict us.
Mere talk is not enough. Pakistan has to act," Mukherjee told a
conference at the Bengal Chamber of Commerce in Kolkata.

"Instead of contradiction and denial, they will have to take action,"
Mukherjee added.

"We can deal only with the government of the day. Therefore, all
arguments which are coming from the other side (Pakistan) are not
really convincing", Mukherjee said.

The first reaction from Islamabad was that non-state actors were
involved in the attacks, he recalled. "Non-state actors do not come
from heaven, nor do they operate from another planet", he said.

"But from wherever they are operating, it is the responsibility of the
incumbent government to deal with them", he said, adding that "we
cannot chase the so-called non-state actors in another country. They
will have to take the action".

"I have never used the word Pakistan government but I have
deliberately used the word that some elements in Pakistan. Evidence
clearly indicate (their involvement)," he the Minister said.

"We have the evidence, including intercepts of the conversation via
satellite. Yesterday I described the conversation as a chilling
account. The captured living terrorist (Amir Ajmal Kasab) gave the
chilling account of what transpired between him and the controller
from that side. They were monitoring Indian television. We have this
type of information", he said.

Pakistan must pursue these evidence and take action, he said, noting
that "words must be followed up by action".

Call off composite dialogue with Pakistan, says BJP
New Delhi Accusing the ruling UPA of losing grip of the situation in
the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks, the main Opposition BJP has
suggested that the government should call off composite dialogue with
Pakistan as that country has not responded adequately to India's
demands.
BJP leader Yashwant Sinha said the government seemed to lack
'cohesion' of thinking as senior ministers were speaking in different
voices on the issue of dealing with Pakistan.

The former External Affairs Minister said New Delhi should build
pressure on Islamabad by sending high-level political emissaries to
various countries, besides the US and UK, with "incontrovertible"
proof of involvement of Pakistani elements in the Mumbai attacks.

"Not judging between strength and weakness, somewhere the grip seems
to have loosened over the last few days. Our government seems to
speaking in different voices," Sinha told Karan Thapar in the
interview on 'Devil's Advocate' programme.

"We heard the External Affairs Minister (Pranab Mukherjee) say one
thing, Defence minister (A K Antony) say another thing on the same day
(on dealing with Pakistan). I think it will be better if there was
unity and cohesion within the spokespersons of the government," he
added.

He said the ministers should discuss more among themselves and "come
to a clear conclusion. There is lack of cohesion in thinking."

On how to deal with Pakistan, he said if his party were in power, it
would have opted to "call off the composite dialogue" rather than
putting a "pause" as has been done by the UPA government.

Making it clear that his party was not satisfied with the measures
taken by Islamabad to meet New Delhi's demands for curbing terrorism,
Sinha said "well, Pakistan has taken some steps. But, clearly Pakistan
is not doing enough. I think what Pakistan has done is most inadequate
if not eye-wash".

When asked if it wasn't enough for the government to rope in the US
and UK to build pressure on Pakistan, the BJP leader suggested that
the government should have approached other countries too.

"It is alright to rope in US and UK but I would prefer the government
to send out emissaries to all important capitals of the world. Why
should we ignore Paris, Berlin and many other capitals," Sinha said.

He said India should send high level political emissaries to important
capitals of the world with "incontrovertible evidence of the
involvement of Pakistan and even taken them on board on our side."

When asked if he or his party leader L K Advani would have accepted to
be such an emissary, he said, "I think we would have certainly taken
up this national duty."

The saffron party feels that the UPA was wrong to restrict itself in
fixing responsibility merely on the 'elements of Pakistan'.

He said if BJP were in power it would have held ISI as also the
government of Pakistan responsible. Commenting on US President-elect
Barack Obama's reported intention to mediate on Kashmir issue, Sinha
said any such initiative would not be acceptable to India.

"We should discourage and strongly discourage any attempt by anyone
including President-elect (Barack) Obama to dabble into the issue of
Jammu and Kashmir," Sinha said.

When asked if BJP's views would remain the same if it comes to power
after the general elections, he said, "I am making it crystal clear
today that no mediation by any envoy is acceptable to India."

Advani laid foundation of terrorism, says Congress

Varanasi Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh charged on Saturday
that BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate L K Advani had ‘laid the
foundation stone of terrorism’ in the country by taking out Rath
Yatras.
Returning from 'Sadbhavna rally' at Azamgarh, Singh said that
‘terrorism spread in the country because of the politics of hate by
BJP and specially its Prime Ministerial candidate LK Advani's
Rathyatras.’

"Politics on terrorism is not good for the country and the BJP must
understand this", he added.

He accused Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati of playing with the
sentiments of Dalits ‘as their exploitation crossed all the limits
during the one and half year period of her government.’

"The exploitation of Dalits during the one and half year period of
Mayawati's regime has crossed all limits", Singh, in charge of party
affairs in UP, alleged.

Earlier, addressing the rally in Azamgarh district, Singh alleged BJP
had worked to divide the country in the name of religion and was
promoting hatred in the society.

He accused BSP and Samajwadi Party of doing politics in the name of
caste and dividing the society along caste lines.

Singh charged the UP government with misusing the fund released by the
Centre for the welfare of poor and downtrodden and said there was ‘no
panchayati raj system in the state.’

Obama to name retired admiral as intelligence director

Washington US President-elect Barack Obama has chosen a retired Navy
admiral Dennis C Blair to head the country' national intelligence,
according to media in Washington.
Citing unnamed government officials familiar with the selection
process, the Los Angeles Times reported that Blair has been selected
as Director of National Intelligence (DNI).

But the daily added that Obama had yet to conclude his search for a
new Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief.

If confirmed, Blair, who has a 34-year Navy career, would be the top
intelligence adviser to the president and the National Security
Council and would be tasked with managing intelligence activities and
coordination among 16 agencies that comprise the US intelligence
community.

The name of Blair has surfaced for the top intelligence job in a
transition period when the country is facing ticking international
time bombs inherited from the present Bush administration, including
two wars, secret CIA prisons overseas and domestic wiretapping.

Obama's team has faced hurdles in finalising his intelligence picks,
and the choice of Blair -- a career military man -- might fuel
tensions between civilian and military intelligence officials, The
Wall Street Journal reported.

Blair, who is not known to be personally close to Obama, is supposed
to have ties with the Clintons and was a Rhodes scholar at Oxford
University at the same times as former president Bill Clinton.

A former commander of US forces in the Pacific, Blair will be only the
third director of the National Intelligence, created by Congress in
2004 after investigations revealed intelligence failure and lack of
coordination and information sharing among country's different
intelligence wings prior to the 9/11 attacks.

Bill donors dash for cover
- Indians explain contributions to foundation


OUR BUREAU

Dec. 20: The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) — the country’s
premier industry forum — swung into damage-control mode after the
William J. Clinton Foundation listed it as one of several fund
contributors, sparking concern that it may have created a “conflict of
interest” for US secretary of state-designate Hillary Clinton.

The chamber of commerce said it had contributed $75,000 to sponsor a
Clinton Foundation event in September 2007 that was designed to
promote India Inc.

“We paid the money for the Clinton Global Initiative’s annual event
held in New York which was attended by a galaxy of international
celebrities, including heads of state and governments,” said
Chandrajeet Bannerjee, director-general of the CII.

“The funds were disbursed in October-November 2007,” Bannerjee added.

The chamber tried hard to shake off the embarrassment that stemmed
from the Clinton Foundation’s disclosures about its contributors.
Incoming US President Barrack Obama is believed to have insisted on
the full list before confirming Hillary’s appointment.

The CII was at pains to emphasise that this wasn’t a political
contribution that was in any way connected with Hillary’s own campaign
to win a Democratic nomination to run for the presidency.

“We tried to gain branding for our own event, India@60, which we were
holding in the same city. We got our money’s worth in terms of
branding because of our association with the Clinton event,” Bannerjee
said.

The decision to sponsor the Clinton event – which was a part of the Rs
23-crore India@60 celebration in New York – was taken by a committee
that oversaw the fund. This panel included Infosys co-chairman Nandan
Nilekani, Jamshed Godrej and telecom tycoon Sunil Bharti Mittal.

However, it was evident that the proposal to sponsor the Clinton
Foundation event had not been cleared by the CII’s executive
committee.

Veteran leaders of the CII – Rahul Bajaj and Adi Godrej – said they
did not wish to comment on the issue as they did not have all the
facts. “I don’t know the facts of the case,” said Rahul Bajaj.

“I don’t know anything about it,” said Adi Godrej.

The disclosures are also potentially embarrassing for the government
since it partly sponsored the India@60 event – and could be accused by
extension of funnelling cash to the Clinton Foundation.

The India@60 celebrations in New York, which were meant to showcase
India’s development and help Indian businessmen network in the global
market, was funded largely by CII members. However, the Government of
India contributed Rs 5 crore that was routed through the commerce
ministry.

However, commerce secretary G.K. Pillai clarified “the money we gave
was never paid directly to CII... it went through the India Brand
Equity Fund and was paid for specific events, hotel bookings and
dinners.”

Other officials added that there was no way that government money
could have been passed on to the Clinton Foundation since there were
several layers of scrutiny, including by Parliament.

“If doubts are raised, we can check the vouchers again,” Pillai said.

The long list of contributors includes several Indian industrialists,
companies and top executives. At the top of the list are Lakshmi
Mittal, the owner of the world’s largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal,
Tulsi Tanti’s Suzlon Energy and Amar Singh. Each of them has
contributed between $1 million and $5 million to the Foundation which
works on a wide range of issues, from HIV/AIDS to climate change and
from elimination of child obesity to sustainable development in Latin
America and Africa.

Samajwadi Party leader Amar Singh yesterday said he didn’t have that
kind of money to donate, prompting the BJP today to ask him to come
clean.

Ajit Gulabchand, chairman and managing director of construction giant
HCC, donated $200,000 to the Clinton Global Initiative. In a media
release, the company said the money was meant for HIV/AIDS educational
programmes and medical support in and around the HCC work site,
especially in Jammu and Kashmir.

When it was pointed out that the list showed his wife Parameshwar
Godrej as a contributor in the $10,001 to $25,000 category, Godrej
bristled and said: “She is not a contributor. She attended the Clinton
Foundation event where the entrance fee was paid from India.”

Besides the CII, several industrialists were also scrambling to head
off suggestions of impropriety in their contributions to the Clinton
Foundation.

“To my knowledge, there has been no such payment,” said Pramod Mittal
over the phone from London. The Clinton Foundation’s list shows Global
Steel Holdings had paid between $50,001 and $100,000. Pramod is the
younger brother of Lakshmi Mittal.

Several Indian companies provide funds to political parties in India
but rarely reveal these details. Under the provisions of the Companies
Act, private entities that have been in existence for over three years
can fund political parties directly or indirectly. They can also
provide funds to a person for “any political purpose”.

Political contributions must be capped at 5 per cent of the net
profits and the board of directors must pass a resolution before the
contributions can be made.

Some companies scrupulously follow the rules. One such company is
Ranbaxy Ltd. In its balance-sheet for the year ended December 31,
2007, the pharmaceutical giant said it had contributed Rs 40 lakh each
to the Shiromani Akali Dal and the Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee.
It had made no contributions in 2006.

In 2004 (when the previous general election was held), Ranbaxy
contributed funds to four political parties: the BJP (Rs 25 lakh), All
India Congress Committee (Rs 25 lakh), Telugu Desam Party (Rs 5 lakh)
and the Shiromani Akali Dal (Rs 5 lakh).

Ranbaxy Pharmaceuticals Inc – a group company registered in the US –
has shovelled between $100,001 and $250,000 to the Clinton
Foundation.

Top executives who contributed to the Clinton Foundation include
Vinita Bali, MD of Britannia Industries; Raymond Bickson, MD of the
Tata-owned Indian Hotels Company; and Vivek Paul, former vice chairman
of Wipro and now with the Texas Pacific Group. All of them paid
between $10,000 and $25,000.

BJP spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad today asked, “Did Amar Singh give
money from an account which he cannot own up?”

He said the Clinton Foundation was unlikely to lie about the
donations. He also wanted to know if the Reserve Bank had cleared the
donation and if the Foreign Exchange Management Act had been applied.
Prasad said an RBI clearance was needed for donations in foreign
exchange if the sum was above $2 million.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1081221/jsp/frontpage/story_10282338.jsp


Terror finger points at Pak army
SUJAN DUTTA

Front office staff prepare to welcome journalists to a news conference
at the Trident hotel, which will reopen on Sunday with a prayer
service. A few guests who were at the hotel when terrorists attacked
it in November will attend the service. (AFP)
New Delhi, Dec. 20: The Centre is now viewing the Mumbai attacks as
the direct handiwork of Pakistan’s military that trained and armed the
militants and planned the strike in detail, top government sources are
saying.

This is a shift from India’s initial response when foreign minister
Pranab Mukherjee led the government in drawing a distinction at two
levels — first, between the government in Islamabad and rabid
“elements in Pakistan” and, second, between the civilian
administration led by Asif Zardari and the military led by Gen. Ashfaq
Parvez Kayani.

India’s security establishment has also begun a series of high-level
meetings to review the state of defence preparedness. There are
concerns that the military’s inventory is wanting. In one of the
meetings today, defence minister A.K. Antony authorised a fast-track
procurement of equipment for the coast guard.

The nuanced change in Delhi’s views follows the interrogation of
gunman Mohammed Ajmal, an analysis of the attack by ballistics
specialists in the military and the conclusion that the attackers were
trained professionally.

Mukherjee today said the attack was planned meticulously and that
Ajmal had given a “chilling account” of who his handlers and trainers
were. “This was cold and calculated murder. One of the terrorists, who
has been captured alive, has given us a chilling account of his
handlers. A few months earlier, the Indian embassy in Kabul was the
target of a terrorist attack. The impunity with which these attacks
are carried out is possible only because the safety of the handlers
has been assured,” he said.

Mukherjee began signalling the change in stand from Friday. “The
Mumbai terrorist attack is the latest instance of how sub-regionalism,
regionalism and multilateralism are threatened by non-state actors
with the aid of para-state apparatus. In the face of the gravest of
provocation, perhaps the time has come now to fine-tune India’s
priorities,” he had said.

“Para-state apparatus” is a phrase usually adopted by military and
espionage agencies to argue that non-state actors operate with the
support and shelter of a state but ensure that the links are deniable.

In Delhi, the suspicion that Pakistan’s military and Kayani knew of
the attack even if he did not authorise it, is being strengthened.
Officials cite a New York Times report that quoted CIA analysts as
saying Kayani had prior knowledge of the Kabul attack.

In India, the military has almost always argued that militants based
out of Pakistan are actively supported by the Pakistan army. Most
recently, it cited the ceasefire violations across the LoC this year
when gunmen in civilian clothes near Pakistani army pickets fired at
Indian positions.

Naval commandos and the army-staffed Special Action Group of the
National Security Guard, who led the counter-terrorist operation in
Mumbai, have pointed to the dexterity with which the attackers handled
their weapons and used their ammunition.

The Indian Army believes such terror outfits cannot be curbed unless
the Pakistani military’s war-waging potential is severely damaged.
Delhi is now closer to this view than it was immediately after the
attacks. But the Centre wants to convert the global sympathy for India
into support.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mukherjee are likely to meet heads
of Indian missions early next week in Delhi. Already, the government
has shared information on the investigations with the heads of 13
missions of countries whose nationals were killed in the attacks.

US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice today said the steps taken by
Pakistan were “not nearly enough” and asked it to keep on working to
“really deal” with terrorism to help ease the “crisis” with India, PTI
reported from Washington.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1081221/jsp/frontpage/story_10282329.jsp





India won't levy admin tax on 3G spectrum
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Reuters
Posted: Dec 20, 2008 at 1550 hrs IST
New Delhi: India's telecom commission, the top decision-making
government body for the sector, has rejected the regulator's proposal
to levy an administrative charge on firms winning 3G spectrum in an
auction due in January, a spokesman for the Union Telecom Ministry
said on Saturday.
The commission has, however, stood by the higher annual spectrum fee
proposed earlier by the government and also recommended by the
Telecoms regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).

"The telecom commission has not found it possible to accept the TRAI's
recommendations for an additional 2 percent administrative charge,"
Akshay Rout, said, without elaborating.

On Dec. 10, the regulator approved a government proposal to increase
the annual spectrum fee for "standalone" 3G operators to 3 per cent of
their revenue, from 1 per cent proposed initially.

Existing Indian operators, who already offer second-generation
telecoms services and win 3G spectrum, will be charged between 3 and 8
per cent of their revenue depending on the total spectrum held both
for 2G and 3G services, it said.

On the top of the annual fee, the regulator had also recommended to
levy an administrative charge of 2 per cent of the highest bid for the
3G spectrum from the second year of spectrum allocation.

India has set a reserve price of Rs 20.20 billion for spectrum
covering all of India for the auction, but bids are expected at much
higher levels as the potential for telecoms services in the world's
fastest-growing telecoms market remains huge.

Any additional fee levied on firms would deter interest in
participating in the auction amid a global financial meltdown and
tight liquidity, analysts say.

Firms willing to participate in the 3G spectrum auction have to send
applications between Dec 26 and Jan 5, while the actual auction starts
on Jan 16.

Sikh radical leaders held as ‘preventive measure’
Amrita Chaudhry
Posted: Dec 20, 2008 at 0001 hrs IST

Ludhiana/Mansa/Bathinda: Former terrorist and present chairman of
Akali Dal (A) presidium, Daljit Singh Bittu, was arrested near the
Jalandhar bypass on Friday morning while attempting to dodge the
police and sneak into Dialpura.

Bittu, along with youth wing incharge Mandhir Singh, driver Palwinder
Singh Shatrana and gunman Ranbir Singh Goh, was taken into custody as
a part of preventive arrests that the Punjab Police undertook today in
various parts of the state to crackdown on hardliners.


Apart from these four arrests, the Punjab Police has also taken into
custody around 100 party workers and various district heads of the
party, mainly from Mansa and Bathinda districts.


These arrests were made following the call of the party presidium for
a gathering of all Sikh hardliners at Gurdwara Zafarnama in Dialpura
in Bathinda to chalk out a plan for closure of Dera Sacha Sauda
premises at Salabatpura, which is about four kilometres from this
gurdwara.


Bittu, along with his men, was trying to reach Dialpura today morning,
where an akhand path commenced. In order to dodge the police, Bittu
and his men were travelling towards the Jalandhar bypass where they
were arrested. Ludhiana Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) R.K.
Jaiswal said, “These arrests have been made following the call.”


Adding to this, Ashish Chaudhry, SSP, Bathinda, said, “We are fully
prepared to handle any kind of situation. The security of the common
man will be taken care of.”


A local court has sent Bittu and others to judicial custody till
December 26.


Jaspal Singh Manjhpur, spokesperson of the party, said: “These arrests
took place at 9 am today morning. However, we have been directed by
the party high command to go ahead with the programme as scheduled.”


It is also learnt that a high police alert has been sounded at
Dialpura Bhaika and no outsider is being allowed inside the village.
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Sikh-radical-leaders-held-as-preventive-measure/400636/

America Needs a Shadow Government
By Timothy V. Gatto
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20793.htm
<http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20793.htm>

17/09/08 "ICH" -- - I think I can speak for many Americans when I say
that our government has been less than responsive as far as ending
militarism and holding our civil liberties sacrosanct. In fact, less
than responsive is being generous, as we have seen this nation totally
scrap the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, station troops in bases
world-wide in over 130 different nations, and wage aggressive war on
three nations, become complicit with another nation to wage war
(Georgia) and institute trade sanctions (another Act of War by
International law) on Iran.

During the past two terms of this Presidency we have learned in-depth
about signing statements, the "Unitary Presidency", numerous
Executive Orders that remain secret from the Congress, extraordinary
"rendition", and torture to include inflicting injuries on
another human being "to the point of, but not exceeding organ
failure". We know of places such as Abu Graib, and Guantanamo and
watched as our Army dropped white Phosphorus on innocent civilians in
a
city called Fallujah where photographs of women and children showed
burned blackened corpses while the clothes and blankets they were
wrapped in weren't even singed. We learned about depleted uranium
and exposed our soldiers and Iraqi citizens to ionizing radiation that
causes cancers, leukemia, and birth defect among other things.
Radiation
that we brought to Iraq and Afghanistan has a half-life of eight
billion
years.

We watched as Congress enabled the President to commit vast sums of
money on an aggressive war in the Middle-East, taking money away from
the taxpayer that could have been used to build schools, hospitals and
to fix crumbling infrastructure in this country. We could have offered
every American student tuition free higher education instead of
dumping
it into Iraq in the quest for global resources like oil. We could have
taken the trillion dollars that we spent on these wars and used it to
promote alternate energy resources. Instead of looking out for the
taxpayers, the Congress, controlled by BOTH major corporate political
parties, squandered our nation's wealth on war and weapons of war
for a global empire nobody voted on and nobody wants save those that
are
now in government.

Congress voted for The Patriot Act, The Military Commissions Act, The
John Warner Defense Bill (The re-vamped Insurrection Act), the
enhanced
FISA Bill that gave the telecom companies retroactive immunity for
illegally wiretapping American citizens for the Executive Branch which
was against the law. Congress ignored Articles of Impeachment against
the President and Vice-President time and time again. Congressional
subpoenas have been ignored by members of the Executive Branch and
Congress does not impose inherent contempt charges on these individual
and send Capitol Police to arrest them for willfully disobeying
Congress. The checks and balances that were built into our
Constitution
are broken from neglect and disuse. Congress has allowed the Executive
Branch to supersede those powers that were expressly given to Congress
by our Constitution.

We are now facing an election in which the nominees were presented to
us
by a compliant corporate led media. Before a single vote had been
cast,
two of the Democratic nominees had been barred from taking part in the
Primary Debates. We saw, according to The Center for Responsive
Politics
(opensecrets.org), corporate money in bundles campaign donations go to
two Democrats almost exclusively before a vote was cast in the
primaries. The two major party nominees both support more war and more
military spending, while ignoring the fact that we have lost a
majority
of our civil liberties that were stated in the Bill of Rights.

Meanwhile the media is controlled by the same interests that now
control
our elected officials from the two major parties, and tout only two
candidates, the Democrat and the Republican. To illustrate that there
is
hardly a difference between them, they must rely on "straw man"
arguments such as gay rights, abortion, taxes and education. These are
the same issues that are brought up time after time, election after
election, yet most of these issues should be settled by the States,
not
the Federal Government. They fail to bring up the loss of our
constitutional rights like freedom of speech and the press,
unrestricted
search and seizures without a warrant. Non-lethal force such as
tasers,
rubber bullets and riot gas being used on demonstrators in violation
of
their free speech rights, as they are rounded up from "free
speech" zones. The candidates neglect to bring up the fact that the
Unites States of America spends 48% of the entire world's spending
on the military. The candidates threaten Russia as we encircle them
with
nuclear –tipped missiles and American military bases. We demonize
Venezuela and Hugo Chavez while we interfere in the internal affairs
of
Bolivia against the democratically elected government of Evo Morales
by
giving five provinces rich in natural gas, hundreds of thousands of
dollars to succeed from Bolivia.

Our Federal government has allowed unchecked predatory capitalism to
thrive in this country, offering mortgages to people with suspect
credit, knowing full well that these people would never be able to pay
the ballooning mortgages in the future in order to make a quick buck.
Our economy is going belly-up by these "lassie faire" practices
that have raped the taxpayers while the government bails out the banks
and brokers with "corporate welfare". The top 10% of the
wealthiest people in this nation own 71% of its wealth! This gives the
remaining 90% of us 21% to share together.

I have written about all of this before. There are examples that for
sake of brevity I have not mentioned instances which are just as
egregious as those mentioned above like the Federal assistance after
Katrina and the saber-rattling towards Iran. I needed to restate all
of
these things to illustrate that our federal government is totally out
of
control, and is not concerned about the well-being of the American
taxpayer. The simple fact is that after this election, with the two
candidates they are running and the third parties shut out of
participating in an honest election because of impediments set up by
the
two-party duopoly, we will have no change in the foreseeable future.
Others besides me have predicted that we will have more of the status
quo if McCain or Obama are elected. Unless this nation comes to an
epiphany and all at once gets behind Nader or McKinney which is very
doubtful, our votes will not win this election. This election will be
decided by the mass media's coverage of the two corporate candidates
that are both more of the same, and the general public that has been
dumbed-down by the same media and the lack of honest news.

So what can we do? I propose a "Shadow Government" that be made
up of all the third parties and the disaffected Republicans and
Democrats that are tired of the American Empire and the squandering of
our nation's wealth on wars while our civil liberties are being
taken from us. It can be formed at a conference much like the one last
week-end at Andover, Mass. We are looking at a police state that
operates outside the rule of law that we have operated on for over two
hundred years. This shadow government will be divided up much like the
Federal Government. Instead of individuals holding office however,
there
will be committees that will monitor every action by every part of
every
branch of this government to insure that they are following the laws,
and not operating outside the rule of law which is US code and the
Constitution.

These committees will have not power but to seek indictments against
those in the federal government that break US law. They can seek
relief
in local, State and Federal Courts. Every move that this corporate
government makes will be followed closely by this shadow government to
insure that the excesses that happened in the last decade are not
allowed to continue. The shadow government can also lobby for campaign
finance reform to get corporate money out of political elections. All
other partisan issues will be left to political interests lest they
take
the focus off of what the shadow government was designed to do.

Drastic times call for drastic measures. This country is rapidly
coming
apart at the seams and our government continues as if this is what is
expected of them. It's time to tell them what is expected of them by
banding together, left, right, liberal, conservative the old
paradigms' no longer matter. So for now it is not between left and
right, only between right and wrong, and it's about time.

timg...@hotmail.com <mailto:timg...@hotmail.com> -
http://liberalpro.blogspot.com <http://liberalpro.blogspot.com/>



Crude oil hits four-year lows

21 Dec 2008, 0205 hrs IST, Nidhi Sharma, ET Bureau

MUMBAI: Crude oil prices fell to their lowest level in past four years
due to concerns about falling demand with economic slowdown and
rising
inventories. Analysts, however, said that correction in oil prices may
not have finished as yet — and prices could further fall in coming
week. The irony is that despite the Opec announcing a significant cut
in production, the pessimism among market participants continues to
drive the prices down.

January contract on Nymex tumbled by over 26% against the previous
week and closed at $ 33.87 per barrel. On MCX the same month, contract
closed down 15% at Rs 2051 per barrel. Prices have fallen 77% from
record $147 a barrel reached on July 11. In the domestic market, a
similar fall in prices, as the global markets, was arrested due to
currency movement. The rupee has risen 2.8% this week against the
dollar to 47.25 level. A rise in Indian currency against dollar
restricts the rise or fall in commodity prices.

An Angel Commodities report says that a supply cut by Opec is not
likely to support oil prices in the short term, as current
macroeconomic data is showing bleak economic outlook. “We believe that
crude oil futures in the short term are likely to fall up to $30 per
barrel levels. Oil prices can trade in the range of $32 and $48 a
barrel for this week,” the report adds.

Subodh Gupta from Anand Rathi Commodities is expecting a lacklustre
movement as most of the market will be in holiday mood. “Overall $30
should act as a good support for crude oil in coming days,” he said.

Earlier in the week, Opec announced to cut down the production by 2.2
million barrels per day with effect from January but this was offset
by the piling inventories and low demand. Having failed to arrest the
fall in prices, Opec members may meet again later in January to
discuss further reductions.

Even the US Federal Reserve brought the interest rates down to 0% to
turn back a deepening recession. Central banks across the globe are
slashing rates and eyeing policy measures as the global financial
crisis sends many rich countries into recession and slows growth in
China and India.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Economy/Crude_oil_hits_four-year_lows/articleshow/3868142.cms

Core projects to be under watch
19 Dec 2008, 0101 hrs IST, Amiti Sen, ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: The government is working on a mechanism to monitor
implementation of infrastructure projects and ensure that the recent
measures taken
to boost infrastructure spending deliver results.

With as many as 26 road projects, sanctioned in February, still
awaiting financial closure, the committee of secretaries (CoS) headed
by the Cabinet secretary is looking at ways which could lead to
stricter monitoring of projects.

The CoS wants various ministries, including finance, road and
commerce, to come together to monitor infrastructure projects, said a
government official.

“If a project does not get financial closure after say, a month or two
after being approved, there should be somebody to question the
failure. Accountability has to be built in,” the official said.
Measures which could be part of the monitoring mechanism have to be
worked out, the official added.

Increasing investment in infrastructure is one of the areas the
government is focusing on to help the country deal with the global
demand slowdown. The move is expected to lead to a ripple effect on
the economy by creating demand in other sectors like cement, steel and
capital goods. It would also lead to creation of employment.

The delay in road projects has severely hit deadlines of the national
highway development project—the ambitious project to build, upgrade
and widen major highways in the country—being implemented over the
past decade.

While many builders blame the sharp increase in interest rates in the
beginning of the fiscal for the delay in financial closures, officials
say all these things should have been factored in while bidding for a
project.

Real estate cos hope govt help will revive demand


16 Dec 2008, 0417 hrs IST, Supriya Verma Mishra & Rajesh Unnikrishnan,
ET Bureau

MUMBAI: The Union government's recently announced stimulus package,
coupled with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) move allowing banks to
provide Slump: India Inc on crossroads |
US crisis & Indian realty |
Home gadgets
special treatment to the real estate sector are likely to change the
fortunes of Indian real estate sector, which has been struggling to
survive for the past six months. Monday's interest rate cut on housing
loans up to Rs 20 lakh could further improve the sentiment, industry
officials said.

"It's a good beginning. At last, government has recognised housing as
a priority sector. They have also realised that the construction and
housing sectors are the largest employment generators in the country.
A lot more to be done. But, whatever measures have been announced now,
is a great relief to the industry," Niranjan Hiranandani, chairman,
Hiranandani Developers said.

Priority sector status to low-value loans, restructuring of loans
taken for commercial property and a reduction in the excise duty on
inputs like steel and cement are expected to reduce the cost burden on
developers significantly.

Many developers ET spoke to said the changes are very visible now.
"Number of enquires are increasing. Strong sales are being registered
in some of our new project launched last month," Sandeep Runwal,
director, Runwal group, said.

Till some time ago, companies were in the race to amass huge land
banks. They were intent on outdoing each other by bidding for costly
land parcels. The financing was done through internal accruals and
large-scale bank borrowings. This had sent property prices to new
highs.

Things started to change when the stock market crashed and investors
were deprived of their surplus cash, which could have been used to buy
property. It also caused a decline in demand so such an extent that
developers were not registering any bookings. Faced with the same
fate, property prices also started falling.

"The government's policy initiatives come at a time when the industry
was reeling under a major liquidity crunch. This would certainly prove
to be beneficial for companies that are facing working capital
shortage." Ram Yadav, director finance, Orbit Corporation, said. The
credit crunch has put the developers in a fix. New launches were
coming down drastically. Completion of projects under construction
became difficult.

"There have been no new launches in the recent times but the ongoing
projects are running on schedule. Being the largest player in Mumbai,
HDIL cannot be insulated from the impact of the slowdown. Since our
business model does not require us to amass a huge land bank, we have
been able to continue," said Hari Prakash Pandey, deputy general
manager, finance, HDIL. Many companies have retrenched staff from
projects due to a delay in launch. Reports hint that some of the north
India-based developers like Omaxe, Parsvnath and DLF have cut their
workforce.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Real_Estate/News_/Real_estate_cos_hope_govt_help_will_revive_demand/articleshow/3843568.cms
Declining political capability


20 Dec 2008, 0011 hrs IST, C P Bhambari, ET Bureau

The logic of a globally interdependent age demands that effective
collective global interventions be made for finding solutions to the
international
financial crisis. But leaders and managers of each and every national
political system in the world must find solutions that are specific to
their respective countries. For, the government of a democratic
country cannot afford to blame the financial crisis, which is being
experienced by its citizens, on ‘global factors’.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had stated as early as October 24 that
“we cannot remain totally unaffected...our stock markets and the
exchange rate of the rupee are under pressure due to capital outflow
of foreign institutional investors”. He had further admitted the rate
of growth in India would slow down because of the international
ambience. Commerce minister Kamal Nath is on record that India’s
exports have declined because of the economic crisis faced by the
developed capitalist countries. However, the Indian political system,
including both political parties and institutions of governance, is
simply proving incapable of providing any coherent road map or
blueprint for dealing with the grave challenges that our economy and
society are facing.

A few facts may be mentioned to substantiate the argument that
politics has proved itself not worth much in dealing with the crisis
at this juncture. First, the authority of the central government to
provide a coherent all-India policy perspective has been completely
eroded and the Congress-led UPA government has shown that every single
group within the coalition is pursuing its own agenda. Every single
group is concerned with maximising its electoral gains by championing
one or the other ‘local’ issue with an eye on its local constituency.

The agenda for dealing with critical national problems has become
subservient to the politics and agenda of localism. It is not only the
UPA constituents which are working at cross purposes, the erstwhile
supporters of the coalition, the Communist parties, have never lost
any opportunity to oppose and criticise economic and foreign policies
pursued by a government, which they had supported from outside.
Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party, too, has a similar story.

The SP is not only supporting the UPA from outside but is also engaged
in keeping the Manmohan Singh government on tenterhooks by its
criticisms on the Batala House encounter incident or Amar Singh’s
tirades against telecom minister A Raja, whom he has accused of
pursuing the telecom policy in a manner that enables him to favour a
‘chosen’ few among corporates. How can the Manmohan Singh government,
in such circumstances, provide any effective political leadership
during this grave crisis?

Second, a crisis situation demands an across-the-board ‘political
consensus’. The UPA cannot make the BJP and the Communists, two major
opposition formations in the Lok Sabha, to agree even on a minimum
economic programme for dealing with the serious crisis that India
faces. Opposition parties have taken their role to oppose the
government too seriously and any hope of even a ‘round table’
conference between the government and the opposition groups for
arriving at some minimal consensus on policy interventions is
currently not at all possible.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Declining_political_capability/articleshow/3864567.cms

Tax sword looms large on cross-border acquisitions
18 Dec 2008, 0233 hrs IST, Sudhir Kapadia,

Since August last year, the world has been watching. It all began with
a show cause notice issued to Vodafone BV (based in the Netherlands),
holding
it to be an “assessee in default” for not withholding tax at source
when it made payments to a Hutchison Group company (based in Cayman
Islands) for acquiring shares of another Cayman Island company.

Such change in shareholding resulted in a change in the controlling
interest of an operating Indian cellular services company. True, the
tax demands raised ran into several millions, $2 billion
approximately. But this is not the reason for the attention that this
case has attracted.

The main reason is that the very foundation of international tax norms
appeared shaken. It has been a well accepted view that while gains
arising to a non-resident from transfer of shares in an Indian company
are liable to tax in India (subject to tax treaty provisions as in
some tax treaties, the gain is not taxable in the source country), the
gain arising to a non-resident from transfer outside India of shares
of a foreign company to another non-resident would normally not be
chargeable to tax in India. This is the case, even if the underlying
value is derived from assets belonging to an Indian subsidiary of the
company, whose shares are transferred.

Vodafone BV (Vodafone NL), a Dutch subsidiary of Vodafone UK, entered
into an agreement with Hutchison Telecommunications Cayman Island
(HTIL) for acquiring share capital of CGP Investments (CGP), which is
a company incorporated in Cayman Islands.

Through CGP, HTIL — the seller — owned 67% controlling interest in
Hutch Essar (HEL, now ‘Vodafone Essar’ — a JV between the Hutch and
Essar group), engaged in cellular services business in India.

When it got the show cause notice, Vodafone NL filed a writ petition
before the Bombay High Court, which now stands dismissed. The HC made
several observations while dismissing it. It did not accept the
argument of Vodafone that the transaction was between two foreign
companies, involving transfer of shares of another foreign company,
and had no nexus or tax implications in India.

In the view of the high court, prima facie, the transaction attracted
capital gains tax liability in India as the sole consideration and the
predominant object of the transaction was transfer of business or
economic interest or controlling interest in the telecom company in
India.

According to the high court, post transfer, the Vodafone group
acquired interest in the telecom licence, brand and goodwill, right to
appoint board of directors, apart from acquiring entry into the
telecom business segment in India.

The transaction was regarded as achieving effective substitution of
Vodafone Group in the place of Hutch Group in the joint venture/
partnership, which the Hutch Group had with Essar Group in India. The
transfer of shares of a foreign company was held to be mode of
achieving the transfer of valuable assets in India, attracting tax
implications

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Comments__Analysis/Tax_sword_looms_large_on_cross-border_acquisitions/articleshow/3854384.cms



India, China can't compensate for lost US spending


21 Dec 2008, 0745 hrs IST, AGENCIES


MUMBAI: They were supposed to keep the good times going: Prakash
Shetty, caught recently thumbing through ``Singh is King'' DVDs at a
mall in Global stimulus package

India, and Zhu Xiaolin, who enjoys cute Adidas sportswear and Body
Shop cosmetics in China.

But how far can Shetty and Zhu, both 26, and other Asian consumers go
to save the groaning global economy? Just how many Buicks, Barbie
dolls, Wrangler jeans, waffle fries, kiwi lip balms and plastic
thingamajigs are they willing or able to buy?

Not enough, it turns out. Much has been made of the power and promise
of Indian and Chinese consumers. Each country has a rapidly growing
economy, rising incomes and more than a billion people, many of whom
have yet to burn through a single credit card or experience the joys a
washing machine can bring.

China will be the world's third-largest consumer market by 2025 and
India will be No 5, ahead of Germany, McKinsey & Co has predicted. As
US sales swooned this year, emerging markets were the sole bright spot
on many balance sheets.

But such heraldry obscures a painful bit of math: US consumers still
buy more than five times as much as Indian and Chinese shoppers
combined. And despite rambunctious growth, revenues from India and
China have barely softened the blow of declining sales in the
developed world, even for companies that have chased after rupees and
yuan most aggressively.

From Adidas to General Motors, companies that have plunged into India
and China are finding that these markets are, by and large, still too
small to make up for the slowdown in the US and other rich countries.
Moreover, India and China are not immune to the global crunch.
Declining exports, particularly in China, and tight credit have cooled
spending growth, despite the favorable long-term trends.

Chinese consumer spending is projected to reach $1.3 trillion this
year, according to Euromonitor International, a market research firm.
That would approach France's $1.4 trillion but pales in comparison to
America's $9.9 trillion. Indian consumers will spend $660 billion, or
about half of China's.

In October, Americans spent $102.8 billion less than they did in
September. That one month drop is nearly two and a half times more
than Indian consumer spending is expected to grow this entire year.
"In dollar terms they can't offset," said Arvind K Singhal, chairman
of Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd, a retail consulting firm based in New
Delhi.

It's not that Indian and Chinese shoppers aren't eager. Take Shetty.
Trim and gregarious, he just got promoted to assistant manager at the
Leela Kempinski, a luxury hotel in Mumbai where rooms were going
recently for $280 a night. After he got the news, he handed his mom a
fistful of cash, bought a television set, two cell phones (one for his
dad), a stack of DVDs, a $700 gold necklace for his fiance and a
couple of new outfits for himself.

"You feel great when you buy new clothes," he said, fending off a
small crowd at the DVD rack of Big Bazaar, a popular discount shop.

Crisis does not mark the end of free-market capitalism: economist


Shyam Ranganathan

Over-exploitation of financial instrument led to the market collapse:
Raghuram Rajan

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Need to invest heavily in infrastructure projects

Capitalism offers best possible growth model for developing economies

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHENNAI: The current global financial crisis shows the problems not of
capitalism itself but those of capitalists who stretch the framework
without worrying about consequences. While the current crisis is part
of the cycle in capitalist economies predicted by theorists from Karl
Marx downwards, it does not mark the death of free enterprise, said
Raghuram Rajan, economist and former Chief Economist at the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Speaking at a plenary session at Pan IIT 2008 at IIT-Madras, Dr.
Rajan, who has been appointed Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister,
said that for all the defects in the system, capitalism offered the
best possible growth model for developing economies. “South Korea has
faced four economic crises in the last 50 years, and North Korea has
not faced even one. But the quality of life in South Korea is clearly
much higher than that in North Korea.”

The current crisis was caused by over-exploitation of a financial
instrument. Mortgage-backed securities were a means to leverage funds
from investors with excess capital spread all over the world to
provide particular services.

Higher interest rates


The fact that some of them were high-risk instruments was reflected in
the higher interest rates they commanded. However, instead of making
provision for the risk entailed by the issuing of these instruments,
bankers had actually decapitalised their holdings by removing the
surplus funds in the form of bonuses and fat pay cheques, Dr. Rajan
said.

Even this would only have resulted in losses to investors like any
typical crash, except that banks had themselves invested in these high-
risk investments without too many safeguards.

India was affected by the recent problems in three ways: decline of
U.S. imports of Indian products reducing export income, losses in the
Indian financial sector due to linkages, and the effects of the
monetary tightening that the government undertook in the immediate
wake of the inflation that raged in the Indian economy due to various
reasons.

Lack of access


While the Indian economy could rebound faster than the U.S and the
European Union economies, and while India could still boast a
reasonably positive growth rate when other economies were struggling
with near-zero rates, this situation should encourage the government
to undertake financial sector reforms and infrastructure improvement
to avoid more severe crises in the future.

The Indian economy, not being as consumption-driven as that of the
U.S., had a more serious problem with the lack of access to
disadvantaged groups. Lack of affordable education, healthcare and
opportunities to use the market to their own advantage denied whole
sections of India the opportunity to enjoy the fruits of enterprise
and innovation.

Politicians who provided a means for the poor to navigate the current
flawed system and provided the poor with their basic necessities began
to wield more clout in this situation, Dr. Rajan said.

To provide the benefits of growth to all sections of society, and to
make the poor also stakeholders in the country’s growth, India should
invest heavily in various infrastructure development projects.

There were strong incentives for people to ask for bailouts and sops
in this situation, but taxes were already low enough in the country,
and private enterprises should try and tide over the crisis by other
measures, while the government used this opportunity to help the poor
and the disadvantaged by building roads, schools and hospitals. If
adequate measures were taken to ensure that nobody was left behind,
India could become one of the top few economic superpowers in 20
years. But this would need heavy spending on public necessities, and
the rolling back of frivolous subsidies on goods like fuel for cars,
Dr. Rajan said.

http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/21/stories/2008122154181000.htm

They Are All Implicated
In the Grip of a Permanent War Economy
by SEYMOUR MELMAN

Now, at the start of the twenty-first century, every major aspect of
American life is being shaped by our Permanent War Economy.

Civilian manufacturing industries are being swept away as a war-
focused White House and a compliant Congress sponsor
deindustrialization of the U.S. (1) They favor production--in Mexico
and China, where government powers bar independent unions. As
production of both consumer goods and capital goods is moved out of
America, unions and whole communities are decimated. Ghost towns are
created across the country. That process is far along in industries
that once invented machine tools, radios, and even TV's. Now the decay
proceeds in "new economy" industries like computers and "Palm" type
devices. The U.S. firms that sell such equipment typically assemble
components that are manufactured elsewhere.

Capital goods have special importance in all this, for those are the
tools and machines used to produce everything else. Jon Rynn has
calculated that by 2004, 50% of all the production equipment required
in the United States will have to be imported, mainly from Germany and
Japan. (2)

Meanwhile, government financing is lavished without stint to promote
every kind of war industry, and foreign investing by U.S. firms. The
war priorities have depleted medical and education staffs. U.S.
medical planning now includes programs to recruit large numbers of
nurses from India. (3) Shortages of housing have caused a swelling of
the homeless population in every major city. State and city
governments across the country have become trained to bend to the
needs of the military--giving automatic approvals to its spending
without limit. The same officials cannot find money for affordable
housing.

The Permanent War Economy of the United States has endured since the
end of World War II in 1945. Since then the U.S. has been at war--
somewhere--every year, in Korea, Nicaragua, Vietnam, the Balkans,
Afghanistan--all this to the accompaniment of shorter military forays
in Africa, Chile, Grenada, Panama.

So it should come as no surprise that there is no public "space" for
dialogue on how to improve the quality of our lives. Such topics are
subordinate to "how to make war". Congress under both Republican and
Democratic control has voted the same war priorities into the federal
budget.

Bob Herbert, the New York Times columnist, reports on 5.5 million
young Americans age 16 to 24--without work in 2003--undereducated,
disconnected from society's mainstream, restless and unhappy,
frustrated, angry, and sad. (4) This population, 5.5 million and
growing, is the product of America's national politics that has
stripped away as too costly the very things that might rescue this
abandoned generation and train it for productive work. But that sort
of thing is now treated as too costly. So this abandoned generation is
now left to perform as fodder for well-budgeted police SWAT teams.

The mayor of New York City presides over a New York Transit Authority
that is now in the midst of spending $3 to 4 billion on subway cars.
If this manufacturing work were done in the U.S.--rather than by
Kawasaki in Japan and Bombardier in Canada--it would generate,
directly and indirectly, about 32,000 jobs. (5)

But nothing was heard from the city government when, after announcing
a request for bids for the $3 billion plus contracts, not one U.S.-
based firm offered a bid.

The production facilities and labor force that could deliver 6 new
subway cars each week could produce 300 cars per year, and thereby
provide new replacement cars for the New York Subway system in a
twenty year cycle--for the 6,000 railcar fleet of the New York subway
system. Such a production plan would also replace traditional
rebuilding of railcars that has occupied maintenance shops of the New
York Transit Authority.

Well-trained engineers are required to design the key subway
transportation equipment. Therefore we must note that it is almost 25
years since the last book was published in the United States on these
topics: Urban Public Transportation by Vukan Vuchic (Prentice Hall,
1981). What is true for the rail equipment industries is also true for
every one of the industries targeted for deindustrialization during
the second half of the twentieth century and early twenty-first
century.

Do you suspect I am exaggerating this portrait of gloom and doom? See
for yourself. Go to the stores that now sell great arrays of "high
tech" merchandise. Pay attention to the boxes for these goods, which
typically state where the contents are made. Try the largest libraries
and see if you can find texts that contain instruction for production
of the products that have been disappeared from U.S. manufacturing.

At this writing there is a lack of schools, teachers, and books
dealing with rail transportation. Suitable textbooks will have to be
translated from French, German or Japanese. In the United States, the
traditional depositories of knowledge for these subjects have been
wiped out. There are no workplaces that prospective workers can visit
to become acquainted with the shape of a productive career devoted to
making things, all of which are now imported.

We can learn something from the experience of the General Electric
Company, in particular from the autobiography of Jack Welch.6 He
hailed the profits brought to GE by locating their largest R&D labs in
India. From a careful biography of Jack Welch's stewardship of General
Electric we learn that "GE has either closed or sold 98 plants in the
United States during the Welch era, 43% of the 228 it operated in
1980." (7) More recently we learn from Business Week8 that General
Electric will have 20,000 workers in India alone by the year's end,
and is moving towards a "big China R&D center." The type of work which
is being moved by GE to the India and China facilities includes
finance, information technology support, R&D for medical, lighting,
and aircraft. Business Week reports, "for companies adept at managing
a global workforce, the benefits can be huge.... Now, American
Express, Dell Computer, Eastman Kodak, and other companies can offer
round the clock customer care while keeping costs in check." For an
array of major U.S. firms reviewed by Business Week, the trend of U.S.
jobs being moved offshore is "a trend that's likely to grow." Here is
the Business Week forecast for 2005. (9)

Life Sciences: 3,700
Legal: 14,000
Art, Design: 6,000
Management: 37,000
Business Operations: 61,000
Computer: 109,000
Architecture: 32,000
Sales: 29,000
Office Support: 295,000
Total: 588,000

By 2015, the number of white-collar jobs of U.S. firms slated for
"moving offshore" is expected to be 3,300,000.

While the cost of labor has been regarded as a central issue in labor-
intensive manufacturing operations, the picture is rather different
with respect to the production and utilization of capital goods. On
January 1, 2003, the New York Times reported, "China has awarded a
potentially lucrative contract to lengthen the world's first
commercial magnetic-levitation rail system to cities surrounding
Shanghai." All this after the prime ministers of Germany and China
took a test ride on the new high-speed train, which is propelled by
magnets. The Times reported that "the train reached its designated
maximum speed of 266 miles per hour over the nineteen miles between
Shanghai financial district and its main international airport." The
German firms that designed and produced the new Maglev train were
Siemens and ThyssenKrupp. New Maglev trains covering 180 miles and
costing more than $5 billion are being negotiated. The critical point
here is that China, a country with one of the lowest wage rates in the
world for industrial production work, is buying new railroad equipment
from German firms which pay the highest production worker wage in the
world. The full meaning of this situation has not registered in the
United States. But the fact remains that high quality capital goods,
backed by strong R&D, justify their higher prices.

There is no doubt about the main effects of a Permanent War Economy on
the present and prospective production of consumer and capital goods
in the United States. Myths, like a hoped-for inherent superiority for
American-made goods, are simply melting away--daily. For the colossal
$379 billion military budget now being organized in the United States
will include funding new military bases around the world and the
manufacture of a host of weapons of astonishing complexity and
costliness. All these take up the available "economic space." Thus the
newest major aircraft program--the Joint Strike Fighter--is expected
to cost as much as $750 billion,10, a historically unmatched price.
The new nuclear attack submarines, each longer than a football field,
are now priced at $2.4 billion each.11 Look at the maps published in
our newspapers of new foreign military bases built for American
forces--each of them magnificently equipped for an unstated but long
duration.

Anticipated costs of a U.S. war in Iraq reach a level of $682 billion.
(12)This exceeds the combined cost for replacing severely damaged
housing ($369 billion) and for electrifying the U.S. main line
railroads ($250 billion).13 The next Pentagon budget for 2004 promises
to checkmate the most fundamental unmet needs in the United States for
medical care, housing, and the education of our children.

In President Bush's 2004 budget, the $379 billion military cost
exceeds the sum of all other "discretionary" (non-mandatory) items in
the Federal budget.

The publicly funded colleges and universities have been raising their
fees every year toward the target level set by the Ivy League schools.
None of this happens overnight, but the direction of development
cannot be mistaken.

The United States is now a species of State Capitalism. The top
federal government executives are a partnership of top political and
corporate managers who operate a war economy to enlarge their power as
their main continuing goal. The idea that the U.S. can afford guns and
butter without limit is proven false every day. Unemployment levels
that are the hallmark of deep depression are now visible as additional
millions "leave" the labor force and are not counted as unemployed by
the Federal government even though they are actually jobless. Hence,
an 8% "unemployment" rate as counted by the Federal government
actually refers to 16% jobless. Meanwhile, the infrastructure of
American society shows decay that can no longer be concealed despite
the practiced showmanship of leading public officials.

All this cannot be blamed on any particular former president or
congress, for they are all implicated. Since World War II, they have
all participated in furthering the Permanent War Economy.

Meanwhile, America's corporate managers have been proceeding with
their very own profit-making business as usual. While millions of
Americans suffered losses of savings and pension funds from the 2001-2
meltdown of corporate securities, the same events in the securities
markets helped to create a new class of economic royalty. Corporate
and government insiders used their positions to know when to buy and
when to sell in the securities markets and thereby amass enormous
personal profit. A new royalty was created, with royal outfitting:
palaces (not just big houses); staffs of servants with butlers trained
to oversee the underlings; lavish cars and other accoutrements as
displayed in the New York Times advertising for luxury goods; and so
on.

What can we expect from the new American royals? Mr. Gary Winnick,
once chairman of Global Crossing, has shown the way. He gained a
profit of $860 million by selling his company stock before the shares
became worthless.14 He told a congressional committee that he "would
write a check for $25 million to cover part of the retirement money
several thousand employees lost when the stock collapsed." Said
Winnick, "I call on other chairmen and CEOs of other companies to step
up and write a check." (15)

Meanwhile, as demonstrated in the American Society of Civil Engineers'
Report Card for America's Infrastructure, the services from roads,
bridges, transit, energy supply, drinking water, etc., etc. are all in
deteriorating condition, deserving a combined Report Card rating of D
+. (16) All this is an important indicator of the opportunity cost, of
what has been forgone, as a consequence of the Permanent War Economy.

Further evasion is out of order. We must come to grips with America's
State Capitalism and its Permanent War Economy. Failing that, there is
no hope for any constructive exit. We must marshal the money and human
resources that are needed to restore jobs and production competence--
industry by industry. That is why I called particular attention to the
methods for reindustrialization as in the subway car manufacturing
industry. Since all this is controlled by public money, an alert
public, with energetic participation by alert unions, is strategically
situated to trigger a reindustrialization process.

I am pleased to report that with initiatives from the Steelworkers and
other unions, a Landmark Growth Capital Partners (LP) Fund has been
formed to assemble retirement funds from trade unions and individuals
to facilitate investments in worker-friendly industrial and other
companies needing capital to modernize or expand. At this writing, $78
million is in hand, with near future prospects for additional funds of
some $2 billion from unions and worker-friendly private capital funds.
Tom Croft, who has been a director of the Heartland Labor-Capital
Network informs us that the main prospective participating union
pension funds include the Steelworkers, UNITE, International Union of
Electrical Workers, United Mine Workers, United Food and Commercial
Workers, Local 1199 of Service Employees International Union, United
Brotherhood of Carpenters, International Association of Machinists and
Aerospace Workers, and The City of New Haven Pension Fund. (17)

Seymour Melman is emeritus proessor of Industrial Engineeering at
Columbia University. His latest book is After Capitalism: From
Managerialism to Workplace Democracy. Visit his website: After
Capitalism.

Notes.

1. Seymour Melman, After Capitalism: From Managerialism to Workplace
Democracy (Albert A. Knopf, 2001), Chapter 3. Also: Seymour Melman,
What Else Is There To Do? (National Commission for Economic Conversion
and Disarmament, 1996).

2. Jon Rynn, "Why Manufacturing Matters" on www.aftercapitalism.com
website. Return to text after Footnote 2.

3. "Indian Nurses Sought To Staff U.S. Hospitals," New York Times,
February 10, 2003.

4. Bob Herbert, "Young, Jobless, Hopeless," New York Times, February
6, 2003.

5. Special Calculation by Dr. Greg Bischak, Senior Economist,
Appalachian Regional Commission.

6. Jack Welch and John A. Byrne, Jack: Straight From The Gut (Warner
Business Books, 2001), pages 313-314.

7. Thomas F. O'Boyle, At Any Cost: Jack Welch, General Electric, and
the Pursuit of Profit (Alfred A. Knopf, 1998), page 33.

8. "Is Your Job Next?" Business Week, February 3, 2003, pages 50-60.

9. "Is Your Job Next?" page 57.

10. After Capitalism, pages 100, 137, 140, 142, 143n.

11. Department of Defense, Program Acquisition Costs By Weapon Type, p
41, at website .

12"The Price We Pay," New York Times, February 15, 2003.

13. After Capitalism, Chapter 5.

14. "Adding to Claims Against Global Crossing," New York Times,
January 30, 2003.

15. "Global Crossing Head Offers Workers $25 Million," New York Times,
October 2, 2002.

16. ASCE Report Card available at http://www.asce.org/reportcard/
website.

17Website: www.heartlandnetwork.org; Email: heartl...@att.net




he Savagely Soft Underbelly of the Anti-War Movement: Misquided Faith
in the UN

Rich Procter
Rove Memo: How to Launch a War

Ritt Goldstein
Oil War: the Smoking Guns

Remember, the CounterPunch website is supported exclusively by
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http://www.counterpunch.org/melman03152003.html
How the War Machine is Driving the US Economy
Military Keynsianism Might get Bush Re-elected, But it is Starting to
Worry Economists

by Andrew Gumbel

What do the war in Iraq and the economic recovery in the United States
have in common? More than one might expect, to judge from the last
couple of rounds of US growth figures.

The war has been a large part of the justification for the Bush
administration to run ever-widening budget deficits, and those
deficits, predicated largely on military spending, have in turn pumped
money into the economy and provided the stimulus that low interest
rates and tax cuts, on their own, could never achieve.

The result, according to economists, is a variant on Keynesianism that
has particular appeal for Republicans. Instead of growing the
government in general - pumping resources into public works, health
care and education, say, which would have an immediate knock-on effect
on sorely needed job creation - the policy focuses on those areas that
represent obvious conservative and business-friendly constituencies.
Which is to say, the military and, even more specifically, the
military contractors that tend to be big contributors to Republican
Party funds.

"It may be very inefficient and obviously not fair, but it is
nevertheless causing almost 5 per cent more money to be pumped into
the economy than is being taken out in tax revenues," observed Robert
Pollin, professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts at
Amherst. "At the same time, it fits into the broader ideological goals
of the administration because they can paint it as part of a national
emergency, the fight against terrorism, the fight against Saddam
Hussein, and so on."

During the second quarter of 2003, when the war in Iraq was in full
swing, some 60 per cent of the 3.3 per cent GDP growth rate was
attributable to military spending. Expenditure on manpower and
weaponry was relatively flat, according to Professor Pollin's
analysis, while the lion's share of the stimulus came from the multi-
billion dollar contracts handed out to Halliburton, Bechtel and other
private contractors.

A smaller proportion of the roaring 8.2 per cent growth recorded for
the third quarter was directly attributable to the military, but
Professor Pollin and others argue that it is still the military that
is driving the deficit, and the deficit - budgeted at about $500
billion (£270bn) for next year - that is driving the recovery.

Just last month, the Pentagon awarded a $4 billion contract to
California company Northrop Grumman to work on the Star Wars missile
defense program. It is the sort of figure that can regenerate the
economy of an entire region. California - the state where US economic
booms have a tendency to begin and end - is also a beneficiary of the
boom in security-related spending, since much modern security
paraphernalia depends on Silicon Valley computer technology.

The Bush administration itself prefers to attribute the recovery to
its tax cuts, targeted disproportionately towards the richest
Americans. Many non-administration economists, however, say this is
nonsense, and that the tax cuts are far more political than they are
stimulative. A more significant role has been played by buoyant
household spending, helped by low mortgage interest rates which have
inspired many homeowners to borrow against the rising value of their
properties. But there are signs that interest rates are now on their
way back up and that the refinancing fad has ended.

"The administration is conducting a highly irresponsible fiscal
policy, and there is no legitimate economist on the face of the earth
who doesn't say the tax cuts are just loony," said Kent Sims, a San
Francisco economic consultant and public policy expert. "The chosen
weapon for dragging the economy off the floor - now that an election
is coming - is the deficit. Military expenditure is usually the least
effective of short-run ways of spending money, because it doesn't
build infrastructure that give you returns over time. But it does
create a short-term lift."

Military-fueled growth, or military Keynesianism as it is now known in
academic circles, was first theorized by the Polish economist Michal
Kalecki in 1943. Kalecki argued that capitalists and their political
champions tended to bridle against classic Keynesianism; achieving
full employment through public spending made them nervous because it
risked over-empowering the working class and the unions.

The military was a much more desirable investment from their point of
view, although justifying such a diversion of public funds required a
certain degree of political repression, best achieved through appeals
to patriotism and fear-mongering about an enemy threat - and,
inexorably, an actual war.

At the time, Kalecki's best example of military Keynesianism was Nazi
Germany. But the concept does not just operate under fascist
dictatorships. Indeed, it has been taken up with enthusiasm by the neo-
liberal right wing in the United States.

Ronald Reagan famously resorted to deficit spending, using talk of the
Evil Empire and communist threats from Central America as his excuse
to ratchet up the military budget. In 1984, the deficit rose to a
whopping 6.2 per cent of GDP. Consequently, the economy grew by more
than 7 per cent that year, and he was re-elected by a landslide.

The corollary of the Reagan military boom was a sharp cutback in
social spending, something that was not reversed under Bill Clinton
and is now back on the agenda with George Bush. State and local
budgets are all in crisis because of the recession of the past two
years. The fact that the White House is not using federal dollars to
help them finance schools, hospitals and police forces hurts all the
more because these things have now been underfunded for a generation.

The Bush deficit has not yet reached Reaganesque proportions (it
stands at roughly 4.5 per cent of GDP). But Professor Pollin, for one,
predicts that the resulting debt burden could rapidly rise to the
levels seen in the 1980s, with interest repayments eating up as much
as 18-19 per cent of the overall federal budget.

Professor Pollin does not share the Clinton administration view that
deficits are always bad. In classic Keynesian fashion, he believes
they are necessary and desirable to pull countries out of recession.
But he, like the generation of economists who criticized Reagan's
policies, thinks the priorities are wrong - as well as overtly
bellicose - and will have repercussions for years or even decades to
come.

"The long-term effects of military Keynesianism are obviously negative
on public infrastructure, health, education and so on, and there are
limits on how long you can keep it up," he said. "What we borrow we
will eventually have to pay back, with interest."
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0106-12.htm

http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/19801


Noam Chomsky On The Economy, Democracy and the American Presidential
Elections
Noam Chomsky Interviewed by Assaf Kfoury
December, 01 2008


By Noam Chomsky
and Assaf Kfoury


Noam Chomsky's ZSpace Page
Join ZSpace
AK: The
economic crisis is felt acutely in the US, but has now spread to the
entire world, even to countries (in South America, for example) that
initially thought they would be spared. And the American presidential
campaign and elections cannot but concern people everywhere, given
the
dominant role of the US globally. The simultaneous unfolding of the
two
-- the crisis and the presidential campaign -- has naturally elicited
considerable discussion outside the US. In the Middle East, in
particular, there has been a kind of speculation, perhaps wishful
thinking, be it from the left or from the right. Some Arab
commentators
have speculated that an Obama administration will follow less
aggressive policies. Some other Arab commentators want to see the
economic crisis as the sign of an imminent American global decline,
and
warn pro-American governments and parties to stop doing the bidding
of
a doomed North American hegemon. What is your response to this kind
of
thinking? More generally, in relation to the Middle East, what
direction is US policy likely to take with the coming Obama
administration in the wake of the economic crisis?


NC: I
think that US hegemony will continue to decline as the world becomes
more diverse. That process has been underway for a long time. US
power
peaked at the end of World War II, when it had literally half the
world's wealth and incomparable military power and security. By 1970,
its share of global wealth had declined by about half, and it has
remained fairly stable since then. In some important respects, US
domination has weakened. One important illustration is Latin America,
Washington's traditional "backyard." For the first time since
European
colonization 500 years ago, South America is making significant
progress towards integration and independence, and is also
establishing
South-South relations independent of the US, specifically with China,
but elsewhere as well. That is a serious matter for US planners. As
it
was discussing the transcendent importance of destroying Chilean
democracy in 1971, Nixon's National Security Council warned that if
the
US cannot control Latin America, it cannotexpect "to achieve a
successful order elsewhere in the world" -- that
is, to control the rest of the world. Controlling Latin America has
become far more difficult in recent years.


It is important to recognize that these goals were explicitly and
clearly articulated during World War II. Studies of the State
Department and Council on Foreign Relations developed plans, later
implemented, to establish a "Grand Area," in which the US would "hold
unquestioned power," displacing Britain and France and ensuring the
"limitation of any exercise of sovereignty" by states that might
interfere with its global designs. Planners called for "an integrated
policy to achieve military and economic supremacy for the United
States" in the Grand Area, which was to include at least the Western
hemisphere, the former British Empire, and the Far East. As the war
progressed, and it became clear that Soviet military power was
crushing
the Nazi war machine, Grand Area planning was extended to include as
much of Eurasia as possible. Since that time fundamental policies
have
changed more in tactics than in substance. And there is little reason
to expect any change of goals with a new US administration, though
the
possibilities of realizing them are declining in a more complex and
diverse global system.


With regard to the Middle East, policy has been quite stable since
World War II, when Washington recognized that Middle East oil
supplies
are "a stupendous source of strategic power" and "one of the greatest
material prizes in world history." That remains true. It is
interesting
that as the pretexts for invading Iraq become more difficult to
sustain, mainstream commentary is beginning to concede the obvious
reasons for the invasion, and the need for the US to maintain control
of Iraq, to the extent that it can. Thus when Obama called for
shifting
the focus of US military operations from Iraq to Afghanistan, the
Washington Post editors instructed him that he was making a serious
mistake, since Afghanistan's "strategic importance pales beside that
of
Iraq, which lies at the geopolitical center of the Middle East and
contains some of the world's largest oil reserves." Propaganda about
WMD and democracy is fine to keep the domestic public quiet, but
realities must be recognized when serious planning is at stake.


Both Democrats and Republicans accept the principle that the US is an
outlaw state, entitled to violate the UN Charter at will, whether by
threatening force against Iran (an explicit violation of the Charter)
or by carrying out aggression (the "supreme international crime," in
the words of the Nuremberg Tribunal). They also accept the principle
that the US not only has the right to invade other countries if it
chooses, but also to attack any country that it alleges is supporting
resistance to its aggression. Here the guise is "the war on terror."
Murderous attacks by US drones in Pakistan are one illustration. The
recent US cross-border raid from Iraq, on October 26, on the town of
Bukamal in Syria is another. The editors of the Lebanese Daily Star
are
quite right in warning that the attack on Syria is another
contribution
to the "loathsome legacy" of the Bush II administration. But it is
not
just Bush II, and there is, currently, no substantial basis for
expecting any significant change under a new administration with
regard
to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine, or any other crucial
issue involving the Middle East.


AK: Some on the left in the US have warned that,
as American economic power wanes and with it the political influence
that follows, the US will rely more on military force to assert
itself.
So, unless there is a concomitant drop in Washington's drive to
remain
the dominant global power, there will be more military provocations
and
a far more dangerous world. However, the US military is already
over-stretched -- in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and elsewhere -- and many
former military officers have recently gone public in expressing
their
concerns about a broken army. So, is this kind of speculation unduly
alarmist?



NC: I am frankly somewhat skeptical. For one
thing, though ground forces are indeed overstretched, the US military
is awesome in scale and power. US military spending is roughly
comparable to the rest of the world combined, and the military is far
more advanced technologically. It is rather striking that a small
client state, Israel, claims to have air and armored forces that are
larger and technologically more advanced than any NATO power, apart
from the US. And the US is alone in the world in having a global
basing
system and naval and air forces that allow it to carry out violent
action virtually everywhere. It is also alone in developing
capacities
for space warfare, over the strong objections of the rest of the
world.


In the economic sphere, for about thirty years the world has been
tripolar, with powerful centers in North America, Europe, and East
Asia. The diversification of the global economy has proceeded since,
and may be somewhat accelerated by the current financial crisis,
though
that is not obvious. The US has enormous advantages in the economic
domain, though also substantial weaknesses, like severe indebtedness.
Europe could become an independent force in world affairs, but has
chosen to subordinate itself to Washington. It has readily accepted
extreme provocations, among them, Clinton's expansion of NATO to the
East in violation of firm promises by the Bush I administration to
Gorbachev, when he made the astonishing concession of allowing a
united
Germany to join a hostile military alliance. Some recent consequences
in the Caucasus of this policy of expansion to the East have been on
the front pages. The Asian countries have accumulated huge financial
reserves, so much so that Japan, despite its stalling economy, is
purchasing major US assets. In principle, China and Japan could
diversify their currencies away from dollars. The effects could be
dramatic, but it is not likely, for one reason because of their
reliance on the US market, for another, because of US power, which
they
do not want to confront.


It is true that Bush II has severely harmed the interests of those
who
own and run the society, one reason why he has come under such
intense
criticism within the mainstream. But it has hardly been a lethal
blow.
There is much talk about India and China becoming the major powers of
the next century. No doubt they will continue to gain economic power,
but they have enormous internal problems, unknown in the West. One
indication is given by the UN Human Development Index, in which China
ranks 81st and India 128th (unchanged through the period of its
partial
liberalization and rapid growth). And there is much more.


AK: There is a relation you have mentioned in some
of your recent writings, between neo-liberal economics and the
diminishing space for democratic participation. This is something
that
is rarely discussed, even by commentators on the left, as if
proponents
of financial liberalization coincidentally happen to be
anti-democratic. The connection is at best observed, but not
articulated. In fact, the neo-liberal economists have always
advocated
their policies in the name of democracy and swear by their commitment
to it. Would you explain the mechanism of this connection and how it
worked in past decades?


NC: It is true that the relation is ignored,
apart from some of the professional literature. But it is
straightforward, and highly significant.


After World War II, the victors established a global economic order,
the Bretton Woods system: Britain was represented by John Maynard
Keynes, the US by Harry Dexter White. A core principle was
constraints
on capital. Governments were permitted to control capital flight, a
principle that still is in the IMF rules, though ignored. And
currencies were regulated within a narrow band. The motives were
twofold. The first was economic: Keynes and White believed that these
measures would stimulate economic growth and trade. The second was
sociopolitical: both understood that unless governments are able to
regulate capital, they will not be able to carry out social
democratic
(welfare state) measures. These had enormous support among
populations
that had been radicalized by the Great Depression and the anti-
fascist
war (World War II).


The basis for the sociopolitical motive is straightforward. Free
capital movement establishes what international economists have
called
a "virtual parliament" of investors and lenders, who carry out a
"moment-by-moment referendum" on government policies. The "virtual
parliaments" can "vote" against these policies if it considers them
irrational: enacted for the benefit of people, rather than profit for
concentrated private power. They can "vote" by capital flight,
attacks
on currencies, and other devices offered by financial liberalization.
Keynes considered the most important achievement of Bretton Woods to
be
establishment of the right of governments to restrict capital
movement.


Keynes regarded speculation as destructive. His basic insight is well
described by Indian economist Prabhat Patnaik, at the UN conference
of
October 30 on the global financial crisis. Patnaik explains that
Keynes
"had located the fundamental defect of the free market system in its
incapacity to distinguish between `speculation' and `enterprise.'
Hence, it had a tendency to be dominated by speculators, interested
not
in the long-term yield on assets but only in the short-term
appreciation in asset values. Their whims and caprices, causing sharp
swings in asset prices, determined the magnitude of productive
investment and, therefore, the level of aggregate demand, employment
and output in the economy. The real lives of millions of people were
determined by the whims of 'a bunch of speculators' under the free
market system." The replacement of governmental "demand management"
by
"bubble booms" created by speculators is a prime cause of the current
financial crisis, Patnaik argues plausibly, supporting Keynes's
analysis.


Both motives of the Bretton Woods planners -- the economic and the
sociopolitical -- proved well justified. The
following years, until the system was dismantled in the 1970s, are
described by economic historians as the "golden age" of capitalism
(more accurately, state capitalism). Since financial liberalization
and
the related neo-liberal programs were introduced in the 1970s, there
has been considerable deterioration where the programs have been
adopted, though there has been rapid growth where they have been
mostly
ignored, notably in East Asia. The same has been true of the
sociopolitical motive. The Bretton Woods years were the era of
substantial progress in establishing basic social and democratic
rights, which have been under attack during the neo-liberal/financial
liberalization period. To take just the United States for
illustration,
during the Bretton Wood years, economic growth was not only unusually
rapid but also egalitarian: the poorest quintile did as well as the
richest. And social indicators, general measures of the health of the
society, closely tracked growth. Since the late 1970s, for the
majority
of the population real incomes have stagnated, work hours have
increased, benefits have declined, and social indicators not only did
not track growth, but in fact steadily declined.


It is instructive to see how the basic issues are described in the
serious literature of economic history. In his standard scholarly
history of the international monetary system, Barry Eichengreen
points
out that in the 19th century, the public had
not been much of a problem. Governments had not yet been "politicized
by universal male suffrage and the rise of trade unionism and
parliamentary labor parties." Therefore the severe costs imposed by
the
"virtual parliament" could be transferred to the general population,
who could do nothing but suffer in silence. But with the success of
popular struggle in achieving some level of democracy, and the
radicalization of the general public during the Great Depression and
the anti-fascist war, that luxury was no longer available to private
power and wealth. Hence in the Bretton Woods system, "limits on
capital
mobility substituted for limits on democracy as a source of
insulation
from market pressures."


It is only necessary to add the obvious corollary: with the
dismantling
of the system from the 1970s, functioning democracy is restricted. It
has therefore become necessary to control and marginalize the public
in
some fashion. These processes are particularly evident in the more
business-run societies like the United States. One illustration is
the
management of electoral campaigns by the Public Relations industry,
to
ensure that the public is effectively marginalized. As many studies
demonstrate, the two political parties -- essentially, two factions
of
the ruling business party -- are well to the right of the public on
many major issues, so there is a good reason for party managers to
keep
issues sidelined and to concentrate on personalities, "values,"
character, and so on. The nature of the electoral extravaganzas in
American presidential campaigns is well symbolized by the fact that
Sarah Palin's hairdresser is paid twice as much as John McCain's
foreign policy adviser -- and her role is twice as important, for the
party managers and the handlers of the candidates.


The population is not unaware of their marginalization, and naturally
do not like it. 80% of the American public feel that the government
is
run "by a few big interests looking out for themselves," not for the
benefit of the public. And a remarkable 95% object that the
government
does not respond to public opinion -- as is demonstrably the case.


AK: Looking
ahead, if a retreat from financial liberalization will open up some
space for democratic participation, in what sectors of American
society
is this likely to happen? The labor movement in the US has gradually
weakened since World War II, and will probably take some time to
rebuild its base and reassert itself. This is a little speculative,
but
where do you think genuine democratic participation is likely to
start
from in the US?


NC: US
labor history has been very violent, by comparative standards. By the
1920s, the very lively and popular labor movement had virtually been
destroyed, by means that shocked even right-wing observers in England
and Australia. During the Depression and World War II, the labor
movement revived and became a significant force. Immediately after
the
war, a corporate-led offensive was launched, with government support,
to destroy the unions. The scale was quite remarkable. There are good
scholarly studies, but the history is scarcely known. The reason why
unions are targeted is straightforward: they not only enable working
people to gain basic rights, but they are also an instrument of
democratization, providing a means for people with limited resources
to
come together to formulate plans and to enter the political arena to
implement them. Naturally, democracy and worker's rights are regarded
as a serious threat by concentrated power. In the 1980s, the Reagan
administration informed the business world that the government would
not enforce the laws, dating from the New Deal (initiated by
President
Roosevelt in the 1930's to counter the effects of the Great
Depression), which protected workers attempting to organize. Illegal
firing of union organizers tripled. In the Clinton years, NAFTA
(North
American Free Trade Agreement) served the same function. When workers
sought to organize, management could threaten to move to Mexico. The
threat is illegal, but when the government refuses to enforce the
laws,
it can be quite effective. Other devices have been developed to crush
unions. The media (press, cinema, etc.) have also been mobilized to
the
cause.


It should be recognized that the leaders of the business world are
dedicated Marxists in that they are constantly fighting a bitter
class
war to control their popular enemy. And since they largely control
government and media, the war is quite effective. By now, private
sector unionization is very low, though a majority of workers favor
unionization. A telling comparison is that in the public sector,
where
means to destroy unions are less available, unionization remains far
higher.


Revitalization of the labor movement is not out of the question. It
has
happened before, back to the 19th century, after the business classes
and their intellectual chorus had spoken confidently of the end of
history in a utopia of the masters. But there are also other forces.
The country has become much more civilized as a result of the
activism
of the '60s and its aftermath -- one reason why the '60s period is so
bitterly condemned and vilified. The 2008 election is an
illustration.
The top Democratic candidates were a woman and a black. The
Republican
vice-presidential candidate is a woman. Independently of what one
might
think about them, it is important to recall that anything like this
would have been unthinkable before the activism of the 60s had its
impact. That impact extends quite broadly: to rights of minorities
and
woman and human rights generally, to concern for future generations
(the environmental movement), to recognition of some of the crimes of
history that had been suppressed or even glorified, like virtual
extermination of the native population; and to many other areas,
including opposition to aggression. Though it is not widely
understood,
opposition to the Iraq invasion has been far higher than to the
invasion of Indochina, at a comparable stage. And the opposition has
limited the ability of the state to resort to violence.


Some of the most active and important popular movements are more
recent. The third-world solidarity movement, which has roots in
mainstream America, is a product of the 80s, and has expanded since;
it
is worth remembering that it is a new development in the history of
Western imperialism. The global justice movement -- ludicrously
called
"anti-globalization" -- developed in the North in the past decade,
though its origins in the South are much deeper and more rich. These
are potential sources for democratic participation, if they can
overcome the success of the business world in atomizing the
population,
and driving people to individual concerns rather than social
engagement
-- a very large and important topic that I cannot go into here.


[This interview, except for the last question and answer, first
appeared in Arabic in the Beirut daily, as-Safir, of 27 November
2007.]

The Mumbai aftermath: Need for Indian restraint and a South Asian
solution by Rajan Philips

Not without justification the Lashkar-e-Taiba attacks in Mumbai on 26
November have been compared to al-Qaeda’s aerial devastation of
Manhattan in 2001. From the standpoint of Indian political actors and
public opinion, it is difficult to resist extending the parallel and
taking the fight to Pakistan just as America did after 9/11. The
Indian sentiment is tired over the world media’s constant reference to
Kashmir as the ultimate cause of the attacks on Mumbai and others
before; instead, India wants the world to recognize that there is a
whole network of terrorism in Pakistan targeting India and that India
is justified in asking for its destruction to India’s satisfaction.

This is strikingly similar to the Weapons of Mass Destruction argument
that the Bush Administration used to invade Iraq, with one big
difference: there was no WMD in Iraq, whereas Pakistan is replete with
terrorist groups some of whom have declared jihad against India. Hafiz
Muhammad Saeed, the Head of the LeT, and Osama Bin Laden have publicly
tagged Hindu India on to the axis of the infidels along with the
Crusaders, Zionists and Western Christians. They not only challenge
India’s position over Kashmir but also envisage restoring Islamic rule
over India.

Yet, it would be a bigger mistake for India to undertake a military
response targeting terrorist groups in Pakistan than the now
acknowledged American blunder of invading Iraq. While India and
Pakistan have had border skirmishes over Kashmir sometimes bordering
on wars as in 1947 and 1965 (the 1971 war was primarily over the
liberation of Bangladesh, then East Pakistan, from Pakistan), there
was no jihad dimension to these clashes. The jihad dimension in
Pakistan is the result of the Afghan contagion, and in India it is
creating the potential for a Hindu counter-jihad. A new war between
the two countries will not be limited to the two armies at the border
but will ignite violence throughout the two societies. There is the
even graver risk of triggering the use of the nuclear warheads that
the two countries possess.

The Congress government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, unlike the
Bush Administration in less provocative circumstances, has shown
tremendous restraint in the face of opposition criticism and public
outcry for retaliatory action. Their restraint has been vindicated,
for now, by the election results from four Indian States, New Delhi,
Rajasthan, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh that were held after the Mumbai
attacks. Even while the attacks were on, the opposition Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP), the political flagship of Hindu nationalism, took
out front page newspaper advertisements ridiculing the secular
Congress’s ineptitude against Islamic terror and asking the people to
‘vote BJP’ to rebuke the Congress. The voters did not agree.

The Congress Alliance won in three of the four States, registering its
third successive victory in the capital State of New Delhi to the huge
disappointment of the BJP. BJP’s only victory, in Madhya Pradesh, was
a victory for the incumbent BJP Chief Minister who showed competence
in governance after disastrous performances by his Hindu nationalist
predecessors, one of whom was a female Hindu fanatic. The results
augur well for an even broader endorsement of the policy of restraint
in the national elections due in May 2009. The BJP will have to
reconsider its strategy of using Hindu nationalism as its main
campaign plank, and the Congress has time to regroup itself nationally
and demonstrate to the Indian people that India could deal with
Islamic terrorism without succumbing to Hindu nationalism.

The new Home Minister, P. Chidambaram, has declared that the Congress
government will respond with "resolve and determination" to the Mumbai
attacks. But in dealing with Pakistan, India cannot afford to risk
alienating the Pakistani people who are helplessly fed up with the
virtual takeover of their country by mostly non-national jihad forces.
Simultaneously, India should spearhead a regional solution to what has
become the South Asian contagion of terrorism and violence.

Jihad and non-Jihad violence in South Asia

Jihad in Arabic literally means struggle and Islam recognizes four
different forms of jihad – struggle against the self, of the tongue,
of the hand and of the sword. According to many Muslims and Islamic
scholars, jihad of the sword has been misappropriated by Islamic
fundamentalists to include acts of terrorism. Jihad violence in South
Asia emerged only after the regional destabilization following the
Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and its withdrawal. After the Soviet
departure in 1989, the vacuum was filled by the Taliban regime and
thousands of young men from forty countries, all trained mujahideen
(jihad soldiers) ready to spread the cause of radical Islam. The
Lashker-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure), the group reportedly responsible
for the Mumbai attacks, was founded in 1990 with Saudi money, under
the tutelage of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

According to Hussain Haqqani, Pakistan’s US Ambassador, the group was
created during General Zia-ul Haq’s military dictatorship as the
instrument of Pakistan’s "state sponsorship of jihad against India" in
Kashmir. It was given a sprawling 200 acre premises near Lahore and a
network of Madrassa seminaries, hospitals, mobile clinics and markets
throughout Pakistan. Its forays into Kashmir began in 1993, and as
many as 750 estimated members, mostly foreign mercenaries, have been
operating in Kashmir. LeT and other jihad groups have established
links with Indian Islamists and have Islamic networks in Bangladesh
and Maldives.

The emergence of Hindutva in India is less a response to Pakistan’s
state-sponsored jihad against India and more a reaction to India’s
state-sponsored secularism within India. Although an assertive Hindu
ideology has existed for most of the 20th century, its political
traction began only in the 1980s as a reaction to perceived favoured
treatment of Muslim and Christian minorities by the Indian State,
legislature and the judiciary. At one level, Hindutva ideologues rail
against the smug secular superciliousness of the Congress Party and
the Indian Left, and identify the Indian subcontinent as the homeland
of the Hindus. They want India to be a Hindu Nation rather than a
secular state, and support a more aggressive Hindu response to the
Islamic jihad in Kashmir.

At another level, Hindutva storm troopers foment violence against
Muslims and Christians. Unlike mob riots of the past, the violence
against Indian Muslims is now more organized. A shocking new
development is the attack against Christians, about 600 of whom have
been killed in the last eight years, in retaliation against Christian
conversion of lower caste Hindus. More ominous is the recent exposure
of ties between Hindutva groups and sections of the Indian military in
organizing attacks against Muslims. The exposure came with the arrest
of Lt. Col. Srikant Purohit and retired Maj. Ramesh Upadhya for
alleged involvement with Hindutva groups to carry out attacks against
Muslims.

The Hindutva phenomenon, notwithstanding the international network of
its organizations, is mostly confined to India in its agenda and
activities. The BJP is the main political front of the movement
striving for power both at the Centre and State levels based on a
broad Hindu unity cutting across webs of caste and regional
differences. The BJP was in power nationally from 1998 to 2004, and
while pursuing a fundamentalist agenda within India, it worked to
improve relations with Pakistan.

South Asia is also the site several non-religious forms of violence
and terrorism. Sri Lanka is in the throes of renewed fighting between
government forces and separatist Tamil Tigers. The island has seen
much violence in the last thirty years. Nepal’s long experience with
Maoist insurgency recently ended with the abolition of the monarchy
and the assimilation of the Maoists into democratic politics. India
has the largest number of incidents of political violence and
terrorism. According to one estimate, 231 of India’s 608
administrative districts have active insurgent, terrorist and
fundamentalist groups. The number of deaths due to political violence
is second only to Iraq. In 2006, as many as 2,765 died due to
political violence in India compared to 1,470 in Pakistan. Although
more than 1,000 of the 2,765 deaths were in Jammu-Kashmir involving
Hindu-Muslim conflicts, there are many non-religious sources of
political violence in India – remnant and isolated Maoist and Agrarian
insurgent groups operating in several parts of India, ethnic
separatists active in the northeastern state of Assam and surrounding
areas and occasionally spilling over into Bhutan and Bangladesh.

None of these groups, however, have regional implications and even
their impact on India’s national stability is minimal given the
isolated and spread-out nature of their activities, not to mention
India’s behemothian size. However, the human dimension of the rural
and agrarian problems and the impacts at the State and local levels
are not insignificant. More than 16,000 Indian farmers have been
committing suicide annually since 1997, and the State of Maharashtra
has been registering 4,000 farmer suicides every year for the last
three years. Farmer suicides have also been reported with disturbing
frequency in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Despite these heartrending
numbers, farmer suicides are not sensational to attract world media
attention, nor do they preoccupy South Asian religious fundamentalists
and nationalists.

A South Asian solution

The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and its subsequent implosion
and the end of the Cold War have had two separate and contradictory
consequences for South Asia. During the Cold War India and Pakistan
were respectively aligned with the Soviet Union and the US with a
quiet containment of South Asian differences. The main exception was
the 1971 dismemberment of Pakistan (into Bangladesh and present
Pakistan); with that India emerged as the dominant regional power. The
onset of globalization and India’s gravitation to a market economy
have brought India closer to the US in foreign policy, economic
priorities and, more recently, in nuclear policy.

The inter-governmental relations between India and Pakistan have been
improving after the Cold War, and were supplemented by growing
cordiality at the popular and civil society levels. Cross-border
televisions contributed to this cordiality and so did tourism and the
increasing number of cricket encounters between the two countries.
India also began to make conscious efforts to accommodate the
interests of its smaller neighbours within the framework of the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The Gujral
Doctrine formulated by Inder Kumar Gujral, India’s Foreign Minister
and Prime Minster during the late 1990s, codified the new nuances that
India was trying to follow in its neighbourly relations. Countering
these positive developments, as I have been discussing in this
article, are the emergence of Islamic fundamentalism and the forces of
jihad unleashed after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan.


A third development in South Asia during the Cold War with continuing
hangovers is what the late E.M.S. Namboodiripad, onetime Kerala Chief
Minister and longtime General Secretary of the Communist Party of
India (Marxist), used to call the "internal component" of the Indian
national question, but which is equally applicable to Pakistan and Sri
Lanka. India has had quite a few manifestations of this internal
component after independence. It successfully addressed the early
eruptions in the South, in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. The
more violent secessionist demand of the Sikhs of Punjab is also
reasonably settled. As I noted earlier ethno-territorial violence
haunts the northeast parts of India, but Kashmir is the real thorn on
the sides of both and India and Pakistan. The Kashmir question has
been a continuing crystallization of the vicious fallouts from
colonialism and partition, the Cold War, and now the Afghan
imbroglio.


Pakistan’s national question has its own internal components involving
the ethno-territorial conflicts among the Punjabis, the Sindhis and
Pashtuns. But their conflicts are mostly submerged by Pakistan’s
overwhelming problem of Islamic fundamentalism and the related
sectarian infighting between the Sunnis and Shiites. The Sri Lankan
crisis has proved itself to be internally intractable although it has
minimal regional or extra-regional security implications. This is
notwithstanding India’s implication in the crisis on account of its
past involvements and the new outcry in the southern State of Tamil
Nadu that has linguistic and cultural affinities with Sri Lankan
Tamils, over the plight of Tamil civilians caught in the crossfire.

Nonetheless, the three South Asian developments – post-Cold War, post-
Afghanistan, and post-colonial hangovers, are interconnected although
not uniformly or consistently. As I have been arguing, the post-Cold
War development of somewhat improved relationship among South Asian
countries is being undermined by the jihad fallout from Afghanistan,
with Kashmir providing the fault line between the two. The aftermath
of Mumbai is that by more jihad attacks from Pakistan targeting India
will only provoke belligerent Hindu fundamentalist calls for
retaliation. It should be commonplace that jihad attacks from Pakistan
and military retaliations by India will feed each other in an endless
vicious circle. The question is how to prevent the two countries and
the rest of South Asia getting trapped in this vicious circle. The
answer, it would appear, lies in a coordinated approach comprised of
bilateral, multilateral as well as South Asian regional elements.

There are reasonably encouraging signals from Pakistan even though
India may want Pakistan to do more and a lot sooner. Despite the
official insistence on Indian proof that the Lashkar group
masterminded the Mumbai attacks, Pakistan’s President in a rare op-ed
article in the New York Times has acknowledged Pakistan’s predicament
in dealing with the terrorist fallouts from the Afghan imbroglio. He
has asked India to show patience and understanding, and for India and
others to help Pakistan overpower the forces of fanaticism, install
democratic infrastructure and rebuild its economy.

India would do well to take President Asif Ali Zardari at his word and
hold him to it. Ordinary Pakistanis, civil society activists,
professionals and many of the political actors would really like
Pakistan to get rid of the jihad groups and the terrorist network. The
Pakistani army itself is not monolithically hawkish, or fully
identified with jihad forces. India should make its appreciation of
these differences clear to the people of Pakistan and the only
democratic institution they have – the Zardari government. India
should leave the difficult task of pressurizing Pakistan to
systematically take on the jihad groups to the US and the NATO
countries. In any event, the terrorist network in Pakistan cannot be
dealt with in isolation from the goings on in Afghanistan. The coming
Obama administration has its work cut out in embarking on a
triangulation exercise of an international kind, involving
Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

On the vexed question of Kashmir, Pakistan would be well advised to
avoid the ‘K’ word to provoke India in international parleys, such as
it did at the UN recently. Just as Pakistan is asking for patience and
help to put its house in order, so must India be given the time and
space to rethink its position and explore new possibilities for
Kashmir. As Tariq Ali recently remarked, a feasible solution to the
Kashmiri problem as well as the Tamil question in Sri Lanka could well
be a South Asian arrangement that recognizes, where necessary, ethno-
territorial autonomies within the existing state boundaries.

The first of the five principles of the Gujral Doctrine is for India
not to ask for reciprocity in its relations with Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, but to give and accommodate what it can
in good faith and trust. By and large, India has been acting in this
manner with these countries both before and after the Gujral Doctrine.
Strange as it may seem, India should apply the same principle to
Pakistan without seeming to be condescending. Even if the government
of Pakistan is not "an innocent bystander", as Fareed Zakaria, a
Mumbai born American Muslim, has called it, the people of Pakistan are
innocent bystanders as jihad terrorists launch attacks on India. And
the Pakistani people need every help they can get to rid of the menace
in their nation’s bosom.
http://www.island.lk/2008/12/21/features1.html

US and nuclear armaments of India and Pakistan



Kashmir Watch, December 21

By Hem Raj Jain

It does not require a political genius to perceive that under
consistent tremendous public and media pressure in the wake of most
audacious November 26, 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack, the loud noises
emanating from Indian media about Government of India being busy in
serious discussions about selective strikes on Pakistan is merely not
for public consumption.

This is fraught with serious implications especially given the fact
that it will require not even a Mumbai type November, 26 terrorist
attack against India by elements from Pakistan but merely an earlier
bomb blasts of Delhi, Mumbai, Bangaluru, Ahmedabad, Jaipur etc variety
(though God forbid but may happen any time given the situation in
India and Pakistan) will be sufficient to constrain India to go all
out for such strikes on Pakistan and which is bound to escalate in
full fledged war between India and Pakistan.



Only a naivete or an imbecile will believe that a full fledged war
between India and Pakistan will not lead to 'no bar hold nuclear war'
between India and Pakistan (traditionally the most hated and feared
countries, against each other).

War is a sovereign right of any country and martial element is an
essential part of any State and which are supposed to kill and in the
process even get killed in a war against 'enemy' country. But what
makes a war between post 1998 India and Pakistan a grave matter for
the entire mankind especially in this age of globalization is that
both are nuclear power countries. In such eventual nuclear war not
only the martial forces of India and Pakistan but also the millions of
civilians including children women and old people will also get
killed, burnt, injured and incapacitated in nuclear war between India
and Pakistan therefore it is not only 'no bravery' but also an
inhumane affair and which the entire mankind should urgently take the
cognizance of.

One should also not delude oneself that this war (traditional as well
as nuclear) will confine to merely India and Pakistan given the fact
that (i)-India believes that most of the terrorists (HUJI etc.) of
said bomb blast are conducting their activities from Bangladesh
coupled with terrorism and other political problems being created in
India by millions of Bangladeshi infiltrators in India and (ii)-
Militants from Shri Lanka can hardly be expected to resist the
temptation of fishing in such troubled waters.

The people who are thinking that Pakistan being constrained on
economical front will not be able to sustain nuclear war are living in
their make believe world given the fact that so many Islamic countries
(including oil rich countries) are pining for nuclear weapons (also
due to Israel - Palestine conflict) and will be ready to dump wealth
in Pakistan in order to acquire nuclear arms (if not nuclear
technology) from Pakistan and which will be quite easy during such
communally divisive war between Islamic Pakistan and for all practical
purposes Hindu India.

Therefore contemporary powerful USA and its allies should take this
urgent SOS (save our soul) from distressed South Asia seriously and
urgently because it may not wait for a month for this crises to
erupt.
For this Obama (President elect) should help Bush (President, out
going with in a month) to mobilize world leaders in order to
immediately bring nuclear armaments of India and Pakistan under the
control of world body (UN or otherwise) and gradually of other nuclear
powers also so that India and Pakistan may agree to bring their
nuclear military power under the control of such world body.

The author is Delhi based political analyst.
Email: jainhem...@gmail.com
http://www.kashmirwatch.com/showexclusives.php?subaction=showfull&id=1229874847&archive=&start_from=&ucat=15&var1news=value1news

Conflict zone ticking
S Rehman

Though we may disagree with what the Indians and the world community
is saying against Pakistan, they have succeeded in pitting the world
against us through a mandatory resolution of the UNSC, adopted under
Chapter 7 that makes its compliance mandatory, failure of which would
provide the world community a pretext to launch preemptive strikes
either through economic or military means.

It represents a very serious development and failure of Islamabad’s
foreign and security policy. Both civilian and military bureaucracy
and the government have a lot of explaining to do because their half-
hearted approach in dealing with the issue of terrorism or the
terrorist groups has endangered country’s integrity and security of
its citizens. One is amazed that what the Foreign Office was doing all
these days when the Indian’s with their strategic ally, were
manipulating a diplomatic coup d’etat against Pakistan by winning over
China’s support for the resolution. Some naive people believe that the
government of Pakistan itself manipulated this mandatory resolution to
sell it to its people as a fait accompli and the only way to escape
the wrath of the world community. How brilliant. Only fools thinks
that way.

While there can be no two opinions regarding the bloody mayhem in
Mumbai that sent a wave of panic and terror across South Asia,
initiating yet another round of dangerous blame game in a nuclearised
environment, Indian media’s attempt to whip up war hysteria at the
behest of some its Hindutva and hardliners in the Congress Party,
which deliberately projected the tragedy as India’s 9/11, that
culminated in the New Delhi’s decision to discontinue the process of
composite dialogue with Pakistan further deteriorated the security
situation in the region. Many things have happened since then and the
Indian’s moving according to their game plan that was aimed at
arraying different nationalities against Pakistan, as nationals of
many western countries were killed in Mumbai attack. Indians
immediately pronounced judgment against Pakistan’s ISI, Lashkare
Tayeba without any investigation and thanks to intelligence proofs
provided by the Americans or the British and Israeli intelligence. New
Delhi’s tirade was unleashed by its very ambitious External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherji, who once aspired for Congress leadership and
becoming prime minister of India, and had even developed some
difference with Sonia Gandhi in this regard, which many believe was
part of the Indo-US strategic plan of bringing Pakistan under pressure
to submit to their policies, and in the process allow them to deprive
Pakistan of its strategic assets.

Pakistan seems to be in a straight jacket with apparently no
alternatives but to follow the dictates, to save its nuclear assets.
It has come under immense pressure after media investigation reports
in Pakistan “confirmed” that the lone surviving terrorist involved in
Mumbai attacks belonged to Faridkot in Dipalpur district of Pakistan.
New Delhi wants to push through this so-called evidence of Pakistani
soil being used in the tragedy and that it was allegedly involved in
the episode. Perhaps that is the reason New Delhi is scuttling
proposal for joint investigation. Perhaps South Asia will remain in
the war mongering mode until the upcoming Indian elections early next
year. Whatever may be the truth in the so-called evidence about Ajmal
Kasab, apparently it fitted into the line which the Indian media fed
by its intelligence agencies and political leadership, taken right
from the beginning of the Mumbai terrorist attacks.

But the situation took a dramatic turn when a Lahore-based lawyer
claimed Ajmal was allegedly picked up the Indian agencies with the
connivance of Nepalese police, along with many other Pakistanis, in
2006 and that as petition challenging the Indian agencies and Nepalese
authorities was pending in Neplai court. If proved, this could be a
serious blow to the Indian claims and the so-called credible
intelligence provided by the US, NATO and the British intelligence
sources, accusing LeT, Al Qaeda, Jamatud Dawa, and ISI etc, based on
an old perception. Although some of the world leaders, including that
of the US and the UK acted swiftly to stop the situation from getting
out of control due to jingoistic mindset of the people in the region;
it seems that the effort was tilting in favour of India. Sending US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and others to New Delhi and
Islamabad was the right move for salvaging the situation by Washington
and the British Prime Minister Cordon Brown’s whirl wind visit to the
South Asian region. But it has not resulted in the resumption of
bilateral dialogue. Rather it has enhanced pressure on Pakistan as all
the world leaders are maintaining that Pakistan’s solid was used in
the aMumbai attack. Remarks of the US President-elect Barack Obama
that India would be within its rights if it took retaliatory action
against militants hiding inside Pakistan, were counter-productive and
not conducive for peace in the region. Pakistan’s top leadership seems
to be more committed to safeguarding Washington’s interests, no matter
how it impinges on Pakistan’s own national interests. We witnessed the
massive Indian mobilization along Pakistan’s borders and in the
occupied Kashmir and on the high seas. The violation of Pakistan’s air
space was a deliberate prodding mission to judge Pakistan Air Forces
preparedness and its reaction time to challenge the invading aircraft.
Although we have settled with the explanation that it was technical
violation, presumably following British and US indulgence, the fact is
that it was deliberate posturing to send us message. Following
Brasstacks buildup it was decided by Indian and Pakistan that their
aircraft will not fly within 15 miles of their international borders.

If they did so ,they were required to inform the other country.
Indians did not adhere to its and deliberately engaged us in a
dangerous posturing in and environment when there is significant
disparity in conventional weapons between the two countries. Whether
or not it was aimed at launching a surgical attack inside Pakistan, it
was certainly a calculated risk, probably in the knowledge of the so
called “friends”. If the Indian’s might have committed that mistake,
Gordon Brown’s mission as peace maker would have failed as the sub
continent would have plunged into another bloodbath. The western
countries would be more interested in gaining control of Pakistan’s
strategic assets, and not stopping India.

The Indian arrogance of a regional influential was evident from Pranab
Mukharji’s contention that under the circumstances it was not possible
to continue composite dialogue with Pakistan and his repeated
insistence on the right of his country to act in self-defence. Dr
Manmohan Singh’s questionable assertion that Pakistan was epicenter of
terrorism further aggravated the situation. But now after the
resolution and Brown’s visit his stand has softened owing to blow-hot
blow-cold diplomacy. This was despite the fact that the terrorist
tragedy happened on the day the Home Secretaries of the two countries
concluded their talks in Islamabad and announced several concrete
steps to move forward in the peace process, such as the opening of
several land routes for trade – Kargil, Wagah-Attari, Khokhropar etc,
relaxation in the visa regime, a soft and liberal policy on the issue
of release of prisoners and joint efforts to fight terrorism? Was it
also a coincidence that on this fateful day the Foreign Minister of
Pakistan was in the Indian capital holding productive talks with his
Indian counterpart?

Indian government’s decision to discontinue the bilateral process was
tantamount to playing on the terrorists’ turf and providing them
space. Perhaps they have achieved their real objective. After the
Security Council resolution banning Jamat ud Dawa , now that Pakistan
is in compliance mode, if the US and the world really wanted to root
out terrorism, they must insist on joint investigation and the need
for resuming the bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan no
matter how critical the situation may be. One can only find the truth
through dialogue, absence of which might push the region towards a
disastrous scenario. Beating the war drum under the umbrella of united
and firm national response to the terrorist threat will not lead to
any solution. It does not lead to the much needed cooling off period
for diplomacy to make headway. Both India and Pakistan have bilateral
mechanism besides the SAARC framework, to deal with terrorism, and
that must be invoked to deal with the situation. In this particular
case Pakistan has also proposed joint commission to unearth the truth.
If India is sure of its contention it should not oppose it.

But they apparently want to have one way traffic. That is not going
help in this situation. One should not rule out the possibility that
elements who were involved in Samjhota Express and Malegaon massacre
had something to do with inflaming the situation and portraying it as
India’s 9/11.
http://pakobserver.net/200812/18/Articles03.asp

The Aimless War
By Joe Klein Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2008

"Things have gotten a bit hairy," admitted British Lieut. Colonel
Graeme Armour as we sat in a dusty, bunkered NATO fortress just
outside the city of Lashkar Gah in Helmand province, a deadly piece of
turf along Afghanistan's southern border with Pakistan. A day earlier,
two Danish soldiers had been killed and two Brits seriously wounded by
roadside bombs. The casualties were coming almost daily now.


More Related
The Key to Afghanistan: India-Pakistan Peace
Are the Taliban Making a Comeback?
Pakistan: Negligent on Terror?
And then there were the daily frustrations of Armour's job: training
Afghan police officers. Almost all the recruits were illiterate.
"They've had no experience at learning," Armour said. "You sit them in
a room and try to teach them about police procedures — they start
gabbing and knocking about. You talk to them about the rights of
women, and they just laugh." A week earlier, five Afghan police
officers trained by Armour were murdered in their beds while defending
a nearby checkpoint — possibly by other police officers. Their weapons
and ammunition were stolen. "We're not sure of the motivation," Armour
said. "They may have gone to join the Taliban or sold the guns in the
market." (See pictures of Afghanistan's police force in training.)



The war in Afghanistan — the war that President-elect Barack Obama
pledged to fight and win — has become an aimless absurdity. It began
with a specific target. Afghanistan was where Osama bin Laden and al-
Qaeda lived, harbored by the Islamic extremist Taliban government. But
the enemy escaped into Pakistan, and for the past seven years,
Afghanistan has been a slow bleed against an array of mostly
indigenous narco-jihadi-tribal guerrilla forces that we continue to
call the "Taliban." These ragtag bands are funded by opium profits and
led by assorted religious extremists and druglords, many of whom have
safe havens in Pakistan.

In some ways, Helmand province — which I visited with the German
general Egon Ramms, commander of NATO's Allied Joint Force Command —
is a perfect metaphor for the broader war. The soldiers from NATO's
International Security Assistance Force are doing what they can
against difficult odds. The language and tactics of counterinsurgency
warfare are universal here: secure the population, help them build
their communities. There are occasional victories: the Taliban leader
of Musa Qala, in northern Helmand, switched sides and has become an
effective local governor. But the incremental successes are reversible
— schools are burned by the Taliban, police officers are murdered —
because of a monstrous structural problem that defines the current
struggle in Afghanistan.

The British troops in Helmand are fighting with both hands tied behind
their backs. They cannot go after the leadership of the Taliban —
still led by the reclusive Mullah Omar — which operates openly in the
Pakistani city of Quetta, just across the border. They also can't go
after the drug trade that funds the insurgency, in part because some
of the proceeds are also skimmed by the friends, officials and perhaps
family members of the stupendously corrupt government of Afghan
President Hamid Karzai. Helmand province is mostly desert, but it
produces half the world's opium supply along a narrow strip of
irrigated land that straddles the Helmand River. The drug trade —
Afghanistan provides more than 90% of the world's opium — permeates
everything. A former governor, Sher Mohammed Akhundzada, was caught
with nine tons of opium, enough to force him out of office, but not
enough to put him in jail, since he enjoys — according to U.S.
military sources — a close relationship with the Karzai government.
Indeed, Akhundzada and Karzai's brother Ahmed Wali — who operates in
Kandahar, the next province over — are considered the shadow rulers of
the region (along with Mullah Omar). "You should understand," a
British commander said, "the fight here isn't really about religion.
It's about money."

Another thing you should understand: thousands of U.S. troops are
expected to be deployed to Helmand and Kandahar provinces next spring.
They will be fighting under the same limitations as the British,
Canadian, Danish and Dutch forces currently holding the fort, which
means they will be spinning their wheels. And that raises a long-term
question crucial to the success of the Obama Administration: What are
we doing in Afghanistan? What is the mission?

We know what the mission used to be — to kill or capture Osama bin
Laden and destroy his al-Qaeda command. But once bin Laden slipped
away, the mission morphed into a vast, messy nation-building effort to
support the allegedly democratic Karzai government. There was a
certain logic to that. The Taliban and al-Qaeda can't base themselves
in Afghanistan if something resembling a stable, secure nation-state
exists there. But the mission was also historically implausible:
Afghanistan has never had a strong central government. It has been
governed for thousands of years by local and regional tribal
coalitions. The tribes have often been at one another's throats — a
good part of the current "Taliban" uprising is nothing more than
standard tribal rivalries juiced by Western arms and opium profits —
except when foreigners have invaded the area, in which case the
Afghans have united and slowly humiliated conquerors from Alexander
the Great to the Soviets.

The current Western presence is the most benign intrusion in Afghan
history, and the rationale of building stability remains a logical one
— but this war has become something of a sideshow in South Asia. The
far more serious problem is Pakistan, a flimsy state with illogical
borders, nuclear weapons and a mortal religious enmity toward India,
its neighbor to the south. Pakistan is where bin Laden now lives, if
he lives. The Bush Administration chose to coddle Pakistan's military
leadership, which promised to help in the fight against al-Qaeda — but
it hasn't helped much, although there are signs that the fragile new
government of President Asif Ali Zardari may be more cooperative.
Still, the Pakistani intelligence service helped create the Taliban
and other Islamic extremist groups — including the terrorists who
attacked Mumbai — as a way of keeping India at bay, and Pakistan
continues to protect the Afghan Taliban in Quetta. In his initial
statements, Obama has seemed more sophisticated about Afghanistan than
Bush. In an interview with me in late October, Obama said Afghanistan
should be seen as part of a regional problem, and he suggested that he
might dispatch a special envoy, perhaps Bill Clinton, to work on the
Indo-Afghan-Pakistani dilemma. Clinton seems a less likely prospect
since his wife was named Secretary of State. The current speculation
is that Richard Holbrooke may be selected for the job, which would be
a very good idea.

Holbrooke is a great negotiator, but he's also a great intimidator,
and the first step toward resolving the war in Afghanistan is to lay
down the law in both Islamabad and Kabul. The message should be the
same in both cases: The unsupervised splurge of American aid is over.
The Pakistanis will have to stop giving tacit support and protection
to terrorists, especially the Afghan Taliban. The Karzai government
will have to end its corruption and close down the drug trade. There
are plenty of other reforms necessary — the international humanitarian
effort is a shabby, self-righteous mess; some of our NATO allies
aren't carrying their share of the military burden — but the war will
remain a bloody stalemate at best as long as jihadis come across the
border from Pakistan and the drug trade flourishes.

I flew by helicopter from Helmand to the enormous NATO base outside
Kandahar to learn that three Canadian soldiers had been killed that
morning in an ambush. I stood in a small, bare concrete plaza as the
Canadian flag was raised, then lowered to half-staff. Next the Danish
flag and finally the NATO flag were raised and left to rest at half-
staff. A small group of soldiers from assorted countries stood at
attention and saluted as the flags rose and fell. There were no
American flags this day, but there soon will be.

Before he sends another U.S. soldier off to die or be maimed in
Afghanistan, President-elect Obama needs to deliver the blunt message
to the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan that we will no longer
tolerate their complicity in the deaths of Americans and our allies, a
slaughter that began on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, and continues
to this day. Obama will soon own this aimless war if he does not
somehow change that dynamic.

See the members of Obama's White House.

See pictures of the front lines in the battle against the Taliban.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1865747,00.html





Terrorists provoking Indo-Pak war
Mahmood Elahi, Ottawa, Canada



Photo: AFP
Former Pakistan Foreign Secretary Najmuddin A Shaikh has written a
clear and candid analysis of the Mumbai attacks in Lahore's Daily
Times. He is absolutely right when he says: "Let us be clear however
that we do have a problem of uncontrolled and uncontrollable forces in
Pakistan that are intent on sabotaging any efforts at Indo-Pak
reconciliation. Whether or not the Indians provide us with evidence,
we should initiate inquiries ourselves. Regardless of the nationality
of the attackers, the Indo-Pak process has been set back. Hardliners
in India will be encouraged, ignoring India's own long-term interests
to exploit Pakistan's many vulnerabilities. Both countries have lost."

It is clear that by choosing Mumbai as their target, the extremists
are trying to achieve three things: 1) To provoke a backlash by Hindu
majority against India's Muslim minority. Mumbai is the capital of the
state of Maharastra, the base of Hindu-extremist BJP; 2) To threaten
India's economic prospects as Mumbai is India's financial capital; 3)
To provoke a war between India and Pakistan.

The first two are obvious and India alone can take care of them. But
the third issue is far more challenging as it calls for cooperation
between the two countries who are known for their mutual hostilities.
Although the extremists elements like Laskar-e-Tayeba (LeT), al-Qaeda
and the Taliban are non-state actors, their very presence in Pakistan
makes the country vulnerable. By attacking India, these terrorists are
hoping that India will respond in kind and strike against Pakistan,
triggering an all-out war between the two countries. The extremists
see their salvation in the total destruction of both countries. They
think the destruction of Pakistan and India will pave their way to
establish a pure Islamic state of their imagination. Moreover, a war
between India and Pakistan will take all attention away from
Pakistan's borders with Afghanistan, allowing the Taliban to overthrow
the American-backed Karzai government in Afghanistan.

Assorted Islamist groups think that they will emerge dominant after a
cataclysmic war between India and Pakistan. As such, India should be
careful not to put too much pressure on the Pakistan government.
Wisely, the Indian government has not accused the Zardari government
of any collusion with the terrorists. In their own interests, both
India and Pakistan should cooperate to track down the extremists. All
bets are off if terrorists could mount another attack on India. A
joint anti-terrorist body should investigate the Mumbai attacks and
suggest remedies for both countries.

http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=66952