U.S. SAYS OPENNESS ON Y2K NECESSARY TO PREVENT OVERREACTION
USIA
29 September 1998
U.S. SAYS OPENNESS ON Y2K NECESSARY TO PREVENT OVERREACTION
(Koskinen says government ready and industry will be) (800)
WASHINGTON -- The year 2000 computer problem would be serious if
ignored, but ongoing government and industry efforts to correct the
problem have been successful, says John Koskinen, chair of the White
House Year 2000 Committee.
"The U.S. government expects to have all its systems updated well in
advance of the year 2000," Koskinen said in a U.S. Information Agency
satellite broadcast to Brasilia and Sao Paulo Sept. 25.
Fixing the existing mainframe computer systems that are not designed
to store and process dates beyond the year 1999 is essential by the
last day of that year. Even if a small percentage of the systems fail,
the resulting disruptions are likely to have international
implications.
"There is unfortunately no easy way to deal with this," Koskinen said.
"It is a major challenge even for those who started early and are
still working on it.
"It is never too late to start. It may be too late to finish on time,
but whatever we can get done between now and the end of next year is
obviously important." Organizations in the United States and elsewhere
that start late "must make very hard decisions about what are the most
critical systems ... and focus resources on those," he said.
Further, "it is very important to test the systems that have been
fixed." This is true because for every 100 lines of computer code that
is corrected, five to eight errors are made. Testing takes at least
half the time in correcting the problem and may involve half the
expenses, said Koskinen.
In addition, backup plans need to be devised in case systems are not
fixed in time. Backup plans are of two types: for when a corrected
system does not work and for when other systems to which they are
linked do not work. In critical industries such as power,
transportation, and financial services there must be such plans,
Koskinen declared.
It must be understood at the top of organizations that Y2K is a
critical problem, he said.
But he indicated that efforts are being made to prevent the more
serious repercussions resulting from the few systems that will fail
January 1, 2000. Washington has set up working groups of industry
leaders and officials of federal agencies that deal with those
industries to share information and determine the best way to address
Y2K problems. The electric and oil and gas industries have already
done their work on this and recently issued reports on the status of
their efforts to prepare for the year 2000.
Koskinen dismissed speculation that Y2K disruptions will plunge the
United States into economic recession. He predicted "relatively minor"
economic consequences, even though "no one has very good information
internationally" about the real impact on January 1, 2000. Computer
failures in shipping and international financial services and
telecommunications "will have an impact," he predicted.
"Our most negative result likely will be overreaction by the public.
And they don't have to panic to create a problem." If, for example,
100 million Americans decide to withdraw a modest portion of their
savings from the banking system to purchase a little more automobile
fuel, canned food, and medicines for the expected commercial crisis
fomented by computer systems failures, "we could have serious
disruption regardless" of whether the computer problem itself becomes
serious.
"The answer is not to make general statements to the public that they
should not be concerned, because most of the public will understand
that there is a problem because we say they shouldn't be concerned. So
transparency is critical." Government and industry have a
responsibility to give candid and accurate information to the public,
he said.
People need to be fully informed but also to have a sense of
confidence that all is being done to prepare for the problem, which
will provide a sense of proportion. "It may be appropriate to buy a
few days supply of water, but not six months supply," he said.
Media coverage of the Y2K problem will grow more alarmist as December
31, 1999 draws ever closer, heightening the need for government and
industry to provide full and accurate information about the realities
of the situation. "The public generally responds appropriately if they
get the right information," he said.
Koskinen expressed more concern about other countries risking Y2K
damage. "Easily half the countries of the world have done little to
deal with the problem because they do not think it applies to them.
And we are very concerned that they will discover the impact of this
problem only after we move into the year 2000, and that has great
risks for all of us."