INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ESSENTIAL TO SOLVING THE Y2K PROBLEM
USIA
11 December 1998
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ESSENTIAL TO SOLVING THE Y2K PROBLEM
(Global conference helps experts to share information) (1260)
By Judy Aita
USIA United Nations Correspondent
United Nations -- "We are all competing in a race against time," Ahmad
Kamal said December 11 as he opened the Global Conference on the Year
2000 "Y2K" computer problem at the United Nations.
Ambassador Kamal of Pakistan chaired the day-long session that brought
together coordinators from more than 130 countries to discuss how to
deal with the problem of the so-called "millennium bug," or Y2K
effect, which will occur when computer dating systems face the
transition from years starting with 19 to those starting with 20.
The problem is that older computers, operating systems and software
might interpret the "00" of the year 2000 as "1900." This could
trigger the equivalent of an electronic nervous breakdown in these
systems, causing them to lock up or otherwise cease to function.
The conference was coordinated by the UN working group on infomatics
and the US President's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion with the
hope of ensuring that global computer systems achieve the maximum
possible level of accommodation to the Y2K threat by that date and
that governments plan for all the crisis situations that might arise
because of it.
"This meeting is unprecedented in many ways," Kamal said at a press
conference during the session. "It is the first time national
coordinators have met -- 130 of them. It is heartening to note that
110 come from developing countries or countries in transition."
Kamal said that "despite all the efforts and the committed work of
individuals and institutions, we are far from the objective of
ensuring Y2K compliance by the inflexible deadline of 31 December
1999."
Delegates were given special reports on telecommunications,
electricity and nuclear power, oil and gas industries, banking and
finance, aviation, and shipping and ports. They discussed contingency
planning and crisis management, and what further meetings might be
beneficial.
All of the conference documents are available to the public on the
UN's Internet website at UN.org/members/y2k.
International cooperation is essential, all the participants agreed.
One of the most important documents released at the session is the
roster of those attending, which will allow Y2K coordinators to stay
in touch with one another over the course of the next year, according
to John Koskinen, assistant to President Clinton and chairman of the
President's Council on the Year 2000 Conversion.
He said a primary conference goal was to identify the senior executive
in each country responsible for Y2K compliance "so we know each other
and be able to communicate directly. We don't have time to go through
normal diplomatic channels."
Koskinen called the conference "the most important Year 2000 meeting
that has been held anywhere thus far." And one of its most important
results, he said, "is a general agreement among the delegates about
the importance of continued information sharing about problems as well
as solutions in each of the sectors."
Koskinen said "we are encouraging the delegates and they are
encouraging each other to set up more formal working relationships in
some regions of the world... Our hope and expectation is that in many
cases the delegates will go home not only with knowledge of the faces
and the numbers but with agreements to work together on a regional
basis.
"There is a consensus that time is short," he said, "but to the extent
that we can increase the level of cross border cooperation we will be
able to much more effectively deal with the challenges that every
country faces."
Experts said Y2K disruptions are unavoidable and many international
activities will be affected, ranging from transportation and energy to
defense and telecommunications.
"There is little point of our commiserating over how we got into this
situation," Kemal said, "and why remedial action has been so deeply
delayed around the world ... nor is there any point in deliberating on
the overall size of the Y2K problem or to attempt to put a figure on
the cost of remedial action."
"Irrespective of the size, this is a problem that just has to be
solved," he said. "We all have a common stake in its solution and that
is all that needs to be said about it."
UN Undersecretary General of Management Joseph Connor said that "the
essence of the Year 2000 dilemma is that it is impossible to
accurately predict the effect on our world. The simple transition from
one date to the next could either paralyze our civilization, or just
confound simple systems, or anything in between.
"What we do know is that the Y2K event represents the largest
computing project that the information technology industry has faced
in the 50-year history of its existence," Connor said. He added that
the cost to remedy the problem around the world could be as high as
$600,000 million and litigation could reach $1.4 trillion.
"We also know that no matter how much we prepare, there will be
aspects that will be overlooked and will only manifest themselves in
the new millennium," he said.
Connor said that there are two fundamental issues that make the Y2K
problem different from other situations: first, while the consequences
of most reoccurring disasters can be foreseen to some extent, with the
Y2K bug there is no way to draw from past experiences in order to
predict the failures and their consequences. Second, not all failures
will occur at midnight on 31 December 1999.
Y2K is not "just another technical problem" for the experts to solve,
Connor said, "it is foremost a management problem which has to be
addressed at a high level." And he reminded the participants that "the
deadline is fixed and non-negotiable."
Connor said one possible Y2K threat would be a "domino" effect, in
which the failure of one system would topple another, or failure of a
non-compliant Y2K system could cause a system that has been corrected
to fail. It is also possible, he said, that in fixing one problem
others will be ignored or overlooked, or that some work will not be
completed or done properly.
For example, Connor pointed out that while many major airlines believe
their planes and operations will be Y2K compliant, they are concerned
that hundreds of air traffic control and airport systems may not be.
Connor said financial systems, banking, insurance and airlines have a
high degree of compliance, while telecommunications, manufacturers,
energy and shipping have a medium degree of compliance.
He said government services fall between medium and low compliance
while health care, retail services, small and medium businesses,
agriculture, and construction have a low degree of compliance..
In addition, the Undersecretary General said, the degree of compliance
varies tremendously between countries, and even the best prepared
countries are going to encounter significant problems.
Connor advised assuring that computers managing systems and facilities
most affecting an organization's ability to function be addressed
first. "We have to get used to the fact that some systems and
facilities will not be addressed."
Secretary General Kofi Annan commended the conference as an example of
how "international cooperation is more indispensable than ever in
managing the global issues or our time.
"Information technology can now be found almost everywhere: one
billion telephones, 400 million personal computers, 100 million
computers connected to the Internet, to name but a few examples," the
Secretary General said.
"There is no precedent in history for such a fast deployment of new
technology. This takes the Y2K problem to every corner of the world,"
Annan said.