CONTINGENCY PLANNING: PREPARING FOR Y2K
USIA
24 November 1998
CONTINGENCY PLANNING: PREPARING FOR Y2K
(Internet commentary on year 2000 problem) (1230)
By Paul Malamud
USIA Staff Writer
Washington -- "Contingency planning" has become a common buzzword
people use when discussing the Y2K (year 2000) computer problem. But
what does it mean?
Y2K experts define contingency planning this way:
1. If you're in an executive or leadership position, you need to make
sure your organization can continue to function if its computerized
systems fail as a result of the Y2K problem.
2. You also need to make sure you and your family will not suffer if
some community services are temporarily interrupted as a result of
Y2K.
The Y2K (year 2000) computer problem refers to a glitch in some
computer programs that may make it difficult for computers to
recognize and deal with dates after January 1, 2000.
The problem was caused, more or less unintentionally, by generations
of computer software writers, who over the decades, signified year
dates in their programs with two digits rather than four -- i.e., 67
to signify 1967. Come 2000 (signified as 00), some computers may think
it is actually 1900 (also signified as 00). If this happens, the large
mainframe computers many organizations depend on could crash, freeze
up, or malfunction.
In addition, computer chips "embedded" in factory equipment, office
building electronics, chemical plant controls, and so on, will be
vulnerable if they are date-dependent. Come 2000, this could cause
building air conditioning, lighting, and security systems to fail,
electric utilities to malfunction -- even warehouses might shut down
due to lack of inventory controls.
These problems could affect small businesses, large corporations,
financial services firms, governments, hospitals, schools, and
individuals. Nowadays, most of us are computer-dependent to some
extent.
Authorities agree that while some governments and large organizations
have made progress toward fixing the problem, many have not. Thus,
contingency planning for inevitable computer system failures is now
becoming a central concept in Y2K remediation. While it is always best
to consult an expert personally, the Internet contains a treasure
trove of literature introducing this concept and explaining what is at
stake.
At one site, "Year 2000 Journal," Warren S. Reid, president of WSR
Consulting Group, writes that "a midsized company in the U.S. has an
average of 10 million lines of computer code," much of which "will
include dates and date logic." He adds, "Manual backup and control of
paper flow are skills that many companies have lost.... Manual backup
most likely will require hiring additional people....
"Another area for contingency planning will be in the use and
readiness of embedded systems...that control elevators, medical
devices, security systems, telephone message systems, parking light
systems, air conditioning, vaults, the avionics systems in private
corporate jets," Reid writes. Contingency plans could involve "hiring
additional security people, additional telephone operators or
arranging alternative ground transportation" for employees.
William S. Franklin, a director of the U.S. Government Accounting
Office's Accounting and Information Management Division, adds,
"Contingency planning is the process of identifying the
mission-critical functions an organization must restore expeditiously
during an operational disruption, disaster or malfunction."
Franklin recommends a "comprehensive system inventory," to check
applications systems and databases, computer interfaces with other
offices and organizations, hardware and software, and such
"environmental dependencies" as electric power, heat, and ventilation,
"communications dependencies" (telephone service), and "financial
dependencies," including banking, insurance services, and so on.
Backup computers to perform the most essential mainframe functions,
even backup electric power generators for an office building, might be
part of a contingency plan, Franklin writes.
At the same site, William M. Ulrich, president of Tactical Strategy
Group, Inc., asserts "cost-benefit analysis" has already led some
businesses to sell off divisions where computers are not
year-2000-compliant to other organizations that can integrate them
more efficiently. Ulrich suggests "changing the business
(organizational) model" if possible. Noting the U.S. Internal Revenue
Service (IRS) is dependent on a complex and aging computer system, he
writes, "A contingency option for the IRS might involve converting
current tax codes to a flat tax," that is, having all taxpayers pay
the same percentage of their income as tax. This could make it easier
for the IRS to "implement a fairly simple (new) computer system to
process a single tax rate for all taxpayers in a relatively short
time...." Ulrich also suggests "eliminating redundant (computer)
systems whenever possible," to get rid of old software with many
defective lines of code -- and consolidating their functions in the
system that seems best-positioned to withstand year 2000.
Contingency planning could mean replacing complex, proprietary
software with newer "off-the-shelf" commercial forms. In
"Computerworld" online, journalist Gary H. Anthes writes that the
state of Washington's Department of Social and Health Services "has
begun to put in comprehensive backups for the year 2000. For example,
the Social Service Payment System -- a huge, 12-year-old
mission-critical system with poor documentation -- is now far along in
remediation. But just in case, the state is now field-testing a
commercial, off-the-shelf accounts payable (software) package that can
be turned on quickly if needed" to "churn out the department's $50
million in monthly checks."
Even if one's own organization is year-2000-compliant, other
organizations it depends on could fail due to Y2K. At the "Westergaard
Year 2000" site, Howard Belasco, a "networking professional"
consultant, warns that "customers' failures may impact revenue enough
to damage business. You will also need contingency plans in case a
critical supplier or service provider is unable to achieve (Y2K)
compliance on time."
The potential impact on the individual of Y2K in societies where
things like traffic lights, public transportation, and electric and
water utilities are all computer-dependent is a matter of some
Internet speculation. In a note posted on the Co-Intelligence
Institute site, Sabrina Gartner of Giga Information Group says:
"Prepare as you would for a natural phenomenon, such as a blizzard,
ice storm, tornado, hurricane, flood or power outage. Have extra
non-perishable food on hand, some potable water.... Refill
prescription medicine early.... Those in cold climates should plan on
using a safe alternate heat source.... Keep detailed financial records
on paper for reconciliation after the New Year.... Take a little extra
cash (out of the bank), and (be prepared to) pay by check if credit
cards aren't accepted."
In an article at "Michael S. Hyatt's Y2K Prep" site, Bill Dunn and
Hyatt explain how "just-in-time" inventory practices have led retail
outlets such as grocery stores to install computers that automatically
order new supplies of goods from manufacturers and warehouses. The
human skills that replenish inventories, they write, are almost lost
in industrial societies, a development that could lead to "widespread
shortages and disruptions in the retail and wholesale distribution
industry at the turn of the century."
So will life really come to a halt at the end of the millennium? Even
alarmist Internet pundits acknowledge that only a small percentage of
computers and computer chips will fail. In addition, different
societies and different organizations have different levels of
dependency on computers -- varying from total to nonexistent.
Nonetheless, the consensus about Y2K is that the challenge is real and
may have an impact on our daily lives. Now is the time to make
contingency plans if you think computer gremlins may come your way on
January 1, 2000.