ELECTION '98 CAMPAIGN SPOTLIGHT, NO. 9
USIA
28 October 1998
ELECTION '98 CAMPAIGN SPOTLIGHT, NO. 9
(A Newsletter on American Politics) (3700)
Issue No. 9 October 28, 1998
This newsletter is being provided by the U.S. Information Agency's
Information Bureau in an effort to explain the "how" and "why" in
addition to the "who," "what" and "when" of the 1998 election campaign
in the United States.
The issue includes:
-- Election Preview from Brookings Institution
-- Democratic Operative says Midterm Elections Still too Early to Call
-- 1998 Gubernatorial Races
-- Predictions
-- Election Briefs
Readers are encouraged to express their views on this product, and let
us know if they believe there is anything we should add. Additional
electoral background information is available at the USIA Election 98
site on the World Wide Web at "http://www.usia.gov/usa/election98/" or
from the local USIS library or reference center.
ELECTION PREVIEW FROM BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
By Stuart Gorin
Campaign Spotlight Editor
"Air war vs. ground war" -- not in some troubled far-off land, but in
America, on the election battleground.
That, says veteran political observer Thomas Mann of the Brookings
Institution, will be a factor in the final week of the midterm
elections, as candidates decide how much of their remaining funds to
spend on television and radio advertising rather than on efforts on
the ground to convince voters to actually go to the polls and vote on
November 3.
Previewing the upcoming congressional elections, Mann said on October
27 he did not see any indication of a landslide for either the
Republicans or the Democrats, making it different from past midterm
elections when the party in power has typically lost a large number of
seats.
Mann said a five-seat Republican pickup in the Senate -- where the
Republicans currently have a 55-45 seat margin -- would be "extremely
significant," since that would give them a 60-40 majority, enough to
enable them to cut off debate on issues regardless of the Democratic
Party stance.
Given the number of seats at stake this time -- 34 -- such a result is
possible, Mann said, but he added his reading now is that the range
for the Republicans could be from as low as one seat to as high as six
or seven.
He pointed out that the Democrats hope to take over three
Republican-held seats -- in Indiana, where Senator Dan Coats is
retiring, and North Carolina and New York, where Senators Lauch
Faircloth and Alfonse D'Amato, respectively, are in very tight races.
Two seats that the Democrats seem destined to lose, Mann added, are in
Ohio, where Senator John Glenn is retiring, and in Illinois, where
Senator Carol Moseley-Braun is in trouble.
Discussing the 435-seat House of Representatives, Mann noted that 94
are uncontested this year, 239 are considered safe for the incumbent,
44 are likely to go one way or the other, "and that leaves 58 where
the action is."
Within this group, Mann said the Republicans could gain about a half
dozen seats to add to their current 11-seat margin, but that would not
be viewed as a great victory for a midterm election.
Republican advantages, he said, include an intensity factor with party
loyalists mobilized over anger about President Clinton's involvement
with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, plus the fact that media
coverage of the scandal usurped Democratic campaign issues for months.
Mann added that the Republican Party's traditional ability to raise
more funds than the Democrats also is a factor.
He said that on the other hand, Republican constraints include high
job approval ratings for the president, which could help Democratic
candidates, and a healthy economy, for which voters tend to credit the
White House rather than the Republican-led Congress.
Among the current incumbents who could be defeated in November, Mann
said, he did not believe the range would exceed 4 to 6 seats in each
party.
He said the makeup of the next Congress would be different from the
previous one because many of the Republican candidates now running are
more moderate than the conservatives who swept into power in 1994. On
the Democratic side, where the leadership is considered more liberal,
candidates running in the South, in particular, are more conservative.
Asked about the impact of the White House scandal and the Republican
call for an impeachment inquiry, Mann said all indications are they
would have little effect on the election, but that the election itself
-- depending on the outcome and ideological makeup of the new members
-- will have a major impact on a possible impeachment process.
DEMOCRATIC OPERATIVE SAYS MIDTERM ELECTIONS STILL TOO EARLY TO CALL
By David Pitts
USIA Staff Writer
The midterm elections are still too close to call in terms of how many
seats each major political party will pick up and lose, Craig Smith,
White House director of political affairs, said in a recent appearance
at the Foreign Press Center in New York.
The critical period "will be the final week" before the election,
Smith remarked, and what issues are paramount at that time. Asked
whether the impeachment issue will dominate the races around the
country, he said, "in the end, people will vote on the issues they
have always voted on," the so-called bread and butter issues.
Smith stressed that in midterm elections turnout is never as high as
in presidential election years -- generally only around 38 percent.
"Turnout will be critical," he noted, and there are many variables
affecting that. Generally, however, Smith said that the young, women,
and minorities tend to vote in lesser numbers in midterm elections
than in presidential election years. "This makes for a slightly more
Republican electorate," because the former groups tend to vote
Democratic disproportionately, he added.
In addition, Smith pointed out the importance of "the six-year itch,"
the tendency of the party of the incumbent president to lose
significant numbers of seats two years before the end of his second
term. "Since the Civil War, only once has the party of the incumbent
president gained seats in the House of Representatives; that was
1934," he added.
However, this is a very untypical year, Smith noted, because of the
impeachment issue. "Recent polls show Democrats gaining. Current
polling data indicates a move towards Democrats because of Republican
over-reaching on impeachment. It has put Republicans at risk."
In answer to a question, Smith conceded the importance of money in
elections, particularly soft money which is largely unregulated. The
Republicans have significantly larger campaign funds at their disposal
than the Democrats. This will have an effect in some elections, he
predicted.
A key contest in this regard is the Senate race in Wisconsin, Smith
stressed. Incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, co-author of the
McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform law, has declined the support
of various issue groups who wanted to run campaigns ads sympathetic to
his positions on the issues, because of his belief that unregulated
soft money is poisoning the political process.
Perhaps as a result, Feingold's lead over his Republican opponent, who
has accepted the support of such groups and soft money, has narrowed.
Smith said the eventual outcome of this race will be widely commented
on. If Feingold loses, it could be read as a sign of a lack of public
interest in campaign finance reform.
Commenting on the outcome of other important races, Smith predicted
the Republicans will pick up retiring Senator John Glenn's seat in
Ohio and Democrats will pick up retiring Senator Dan Coats' seat in
Indiana. He said the outcomes of races in California, New York, North
Carolina and South
Carolina are more difficult to call.
1998 GUBERNATORIAL RACES
There are 36 state governorships at stake on November 3: 24 currently
held by Republicans, 11 by Democrats and one by an independent. Eleven
seats -- six Republican and five Democratic -- are open, as the
incumbents are retiring.
Alabama:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Fob James Jr.
Democrat -- Lieutenant Governor Don Siegelman
The latest poll shows Siegelman with a 25-point lead over James, who
is seeking a third term.
Alaska:
Democrat -- incumbent Tony Knowles
Republican -- businessman John Lindauer
Even though Lindauer won the Republican primary, party officials say
he lied to them about his finances and they have endorsed a write-in
candidate, State Senator Robin Taylor. There also are three
third-party candidates on the ballot. Knowles, who is seeking a second
term, has a four-to-one lead in the latest poll.
Arizona:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Jane Dee Hull
Democrat -- former Phoenix Mayor Paul Johnson
Hull, who is seeking her first full term of office, has a 22-point
lead. There also are two third-party candidates on the ballot.
Arkansas:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Mike Huckabee
Democrat -- attorney Bill Bristow
The latest poll shows a two-to-one lead for Huckabee, who is seeking
his first full term of office.
California:
Democrat -- Lieutenant Governor Gray Davis
Republican -- State Attorney General Dan Lungren
Davis holds an 11-point lead over Lungren in his effort to return
California's state house to the Democrats. Five other third-party
candidates are on the ballot. Republican Governor Pete Wilson is
retiring.
Colorado:
Democrat -- Lieutenant Governor Gail Schoettler
Republican -- State Treasurer Bill Owens
The latest poll shows Owens with a six-point lead in his quest to
capture for the Republicans the seat being vacated by retiring
Democratic Governor Roy Romer.
Connecticut:
Republican -- incumbent Governor John Rowland
Democrat -- Congresswoman Barbara Kennelly
Rowland has a three-to-one lead in his bid for a second term.
Florida:
Democrat -- Lieutenant Governor Kenneth "Buddy" H. MacKay
Republican -- real estate developer Jeb Bush
Bush, a son of former President George Bush, has a ten-point lead over
MacKay in his quest to win the seat for the Republicans. Democratic
Governor Lawton Chiles is retiring.
Georgia:
Democrat -- State Representative Roy Barnes
Republican -- businessman Guy Millner
Millner holds a three-point lead in a close race to succeed retiring
Democratic Governor Zell Miller.
Hawaii:
Democrat -- incumbent Governor Ben Cayetano
Republican -- Maui Mayor Linda Lingle
Lingle holds a 15-point lead in her bid to oust Cayetano, who is
seeking a second term. Three other third-party candidates also are on
the ballot.
Idaho:
Republican -- Senator Dirk Kempthorne
Democrat -- former State Supreme Court Judge Robert Huntley
Kempthorne has a four-to-one lead in his bid to replace retiring
Republican Governor Phil Batt.
Illinois:
Democrat -- Congressman Glenn Poshard
Republican -- State Secretary of State George Ryan
The latest poll has Ryan leading Poshard by 17 points. Republican
Governor Jim Edgar is retiring. The ballot also lists three
third-party candidates.
Iowa:
Republican -- former Congressman Jim Ross Lightfoot
Democrat -- State Senator Tom Vilsack
Lightfoot holds an 18-point lead in the race to replace retiring
Republican Governor Terry Branstadt.
Kansas:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Bill Graves
Democrat -- State House Minority Leader Tom Sawyer
Graves, who is seeking a second term, has a four-to-one lead in the
latest poll.
Maine:
Independent -- incumbent Governor Angus King
Republican -- former Congressman James Longley
Democrat -- attorney Thomas Connolly
King, who is seeking a second term, has a large lead over both
mainstream political party candidates.
Maryland:
Democrat -- incumbent Governor Parris Glendening
Republican -- former State Legislator Ellen Sauerbrey
Glendening, who is seeking a second term, holds a five-point lead in a
close race against the opponent he defeated four years ago by less
than 6,000 votes out of more than 1.4 million cast.
Massachusetts:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Argeo Paul Cellucci
Democrat -- State Attorney General Scott Harshbarger
Cellucci, who is seeking his first full term, holds a five-point lead
in the latest poll.
Michigan:
Republican -- incumbent Governor John Engler
Democrat -- attorney Geoffrey Fieger
Engler leads by a two-to-one margin in his quest for a third term.
Fieger is known as the attorney who represents Dr. Jack Kevorkian, the
so-called Doctor Death.
Minnesota:
Democrat -- State Attorney General Hubert "Skip" H. Humphrey III
Republican -- St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman
For the seat being vacated by Republican Governor Arne Carlson,
Humphrey, the son of former Vice President Hubert Humphrey, holds a
one-point lead in the latest poll. Six other third-party candidates
are on the ballot.
Nebraska:
Democrat -- attorney Bill Hoppner
Republican -- Lincoln Mayor Mike Johanns
Johanns holds a 20-point lead in the quest to capture for the
Republicans the seat of retiring Democratic Governor Ben Nelson.
Nevada:
Democrat -- Las Vegas Mayor Jan Laverty Jones
Republican -- businessman Kenny Guinn
For the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Governor Bob Miller,
Jones holds a three-point lead.
New Hampshire:
Democrat -- incumbent Governor Jeanne Shaheen
Republican -- businessman Jay Lucas
Shaheen leads by a margin of three-to-one in her bid for a second
two-year term.
New Mexico:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Gary Johnson
Democrat -- Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez
Johnson holds a four-point lead in his bid for a second term.
New York:
Republican -- incumbent Governor George Pataki
Democrat -- New York City Council Speaker Peter Vallone
Pataki, who is seeking a second term, leads Vallone by better than a
two-to-one margin. Eight third-party candidates also are on the
ballot, including television actor Al "Grandpa" Lewis, representing
the Green Party, and Betsy McCaughey Ross, the Libertarian Party. Ross
earlier was Pataki's lieutenant governor. She switched parties after
being fired from that position.
Ohio:
Democrat -- former State Attorney General Lee Fisher
Republican -- State Secretary of State Robert Taft
Taft has a 15-point lead in his bid to replace retiring Republican
Governor George Voinovich.
Oklahoma:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Frank Keating
Democrat -- State Representative Laura Boyd
The latest poll shows Keating with a margin of better than
three-to-one in his bid for a second term.
Oregon:
Democrat -- incumbent Governor John Kitzhaber
Republican -- businessman Bill Sizemore
Kitzhaber, seeking a second term, has a better than four-to-one lead
in a seven-candidate field.
Pennsylvania:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Tom Ridge
Democrat -- State House Minority Whip Ivan Itkin
In his quest for a second term, Ridge has a better than two-to-one
lead.
Rhode Island:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Lincoln Almond
Democrat -- former State Senator Myrth York
Almond has a six-point lead in the latest poll in his bid for a second
term.
South Carolina:
Republican -- incumbent Governor David Beasley
Democrat -- former State House Minority Leader James Hodges
Beasley has a nine-point lead in his bid for a second term.
South Dakota:
Republican -- incumbent Governor William Janklow
Democrat -- State Senator Bernie Hunhoff
Janklow seeks a fourth non-consecutive term. He won last time with 55
percent of the votes cast.
Tennessee:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Don Sundquist
Democrat -- attorney John Jay Hooker
There also are five independent candidates on the ballot. Sundquist,
who is seeking a second term, won last time with 54 percent of the
votes cast.
Texas:
Republican -- incumbent Governor George W. Bush
Democrat -- State Land Commissioner Garry Mauro
Bush, the son of former President George Bush and an
unannounced-but-talked-about possible presidential candidate himself
in 2000, has a three-to-one lead in his bid for a second term.
Vermont:
Democrat -- incumbent Governor Howard Dean
Republican -- State Representative Ruth Dwyer
Dean has a 40-point lead in his bid for a fourth two-year term.
Wisconsin:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Tommy Thompson
Democrat -- former football union official Ed Garvey
Thompson has nearly a two-to-one lead in his quest for a fourth term.
Wyoming:
Republican -- incumbent Governor Jim Geringer
Democrat -- State Senator John Vinich
Geringer, who is seeking a second term, won last time with 59 percent
of the votes cast.
PREDICTIONS
In the final days before the election, many political observers have
commented on the expected outcome of the congressional races,
generally agreeing that the Republican Party will add to its current
total of 228 seats in the House of Representatives and 55 in the
Senate. Among those making predictions:
-- The McLauglin Group (John McLaughlin, Pat Buchanan, Eleanor Clift,
Michael Barone and Tony Blankley): a consensus 5-seat pick up in the
Senate.
-- The Beltway Boys (Mort Kondracke and Fred Barnes): 10 seats in the
House and 2 in the Senate.
-- Charlie Cook of National Journal: 5 seats in the House and 2 in the
Senate.
-- Democratic pollster Celinda Lake: 7 seats in the House and 1 in the
Senate.
-- Republican pollster Ed Goeas: 17 seats in the House and 5 in the
Senate.
-- Republican pollster Kellyanne Fitzpatrick: 16 seats in the House
and 4 in the Senate.
-- Bill Schneider of CNN: fewer than 10 seats in the House and fewer
than 5 in the Senate.
ELECTION BRIEFS
-- A new poll by the Pew Research Center says Republican congressional
candidates are holding on to their edge over Democrats -- 48 percent
to 43 percent -- despite a souring opinion of the
Republican-controlled Congress and a backlash against moves toward
impeachment of President Clinton. Pew polling director Andy Kohut said
there is little indication in the results of the national telephone
survey that the 1998 election is about the president. "It's like most
congressional races," he said, "it's about local issues and
candidates' character and experience." The results of the poll are
virtually unchanged from three earlier surveys.
-- The national chairmen of the two political parties both see victory
ahead in the November 3 election. Republican Party Chairman Jim
Nicholson says Democrats will suffer because of what he calls a "trust
deficit" caused by the president, and he predicts a three-to-five seat
pick up for his party in the Senate and between 8 and 20 in the House
of Representatives. Democratic Party Co-Chairman Steve Grossman says
voters will remember that the Republican-led Congress killed tobacco
legislation, patient health care reform and educational initiatives.
Declining to speculate on seat numbers, he said the Democrats would do
"a lot better" than others predict.
-- Political analyst James Glassman of the American Enterprise
Institute says he would not be shocked to wake up the morning of
November 4 to find that Democrats had recaptured the House of
Representatives because, in his opinion, the Republicans have a fear
of pushing an agenda that inspires people to get out and vote. A loss
would be a "bracing tonic," Glassman says, "for a party that has grown
complacent and replaced principles with tactics." It would spark a
serious reassessment of strategies and values for the critical
election in the year 2000, he adds.
-- A large number of candidates running for national or state office
in the United States are willing to provide detailed information about
their stands on the issues and about their qualifications for office,
according to Project Vote Smart, an initiative conducted by the Center
for National Independence in Politics. At a news conference October
27, the organization released statistics indicating that 4,821
candidates (of 12,000 contacted) for U.S. House, Senate and state
legislative offices, were willing to release complete information. "We
honor these honor roll candidates for the single fact that they have
made a difficult decision to provide citizens with a clear picture of
themselves and their intentions, in spite of the fact that it exposes
them to opposition research, which may be used in self-serving,
mud-slinging attacks," said Richard Kimball, president of Project Vote
Smart. Not all of the candidates who declined to respond to Project
Vote Smart oppose transparency; some have released information through
other means.
-- Participants in a recent forum in Washington sponsored by The
Hotline and Womenconnect Politics Daily discussed the impact that
women voters will have on the 1998 election, in which the two major
political parties have nominated 139 women candidates in Senate, House
and gubernatorial races. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said it will
be working class women -- dubbed the "waitress moms" -- who will
decide the election this year. These women like the Democratic Party's
views on education, health care and Social Security, Lake said, but
polls indicate that a majority of them are unlikely to vote.
Republican pollster Linda DiVall said men candidates are now adding
such so-called "women's issues" as education and health care to their
own agendas.
-- The Campaign for America's Future, a nonpartisan research and
education organization, has created an on-line publication, Straight
Talk: Common Sense for the New Majority, which has presented the case
that most voters want the 1998 election to be about the issues and
choices that will affect the future of working families, not the
scandals that dominate the headlines. Robert Borosage, co-director of
the campaign, says Straight Talk is written in the belief that America
is headed into a new era of progressive reform. He said progressives
have a remarkable opportunity because in low-turnout elections --
which is being predicted for 1998 -- activists have a larger
influence. Straight Talk is available at www.ourfuture.org.
-- American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential
Studies has unveiled a new campaign ethics curriculum designed for use
in schools to help raise awareness of political campaign conduct and
promote higher standards for campaigns. Carol Whitney, program
director of the Center's Campaign Management Institute, says one of
the most important factors in effecting any positive changes in
campaign conduct is increasing public awareness. There will be a much
longer-term impact, she says, if such awareness is created at an
earlier point in people's lives.
-- A number of referenda will appear on state ballots this year. Among
them will be: an affirmative action initiative in Washington State; an
assisted suicide proposal in Michigan; a ban on partial-birth
abortions in Colorado and Washington State; legalizing medical use of
marijuana in Alaska, Arizona, Washington DC, Washington State and
Colorado; and tax reform in Nebraska and Montana.
-- There is political turmoil in Tennessee after popular Democratic
State Senator Tommy Burks was killed and his opponent, Byron Looper,
was charged with the murder. Burks' name will be stripped from the
November 3 ballot and Looper's will be left on, despite the Republican
Party's disavowing him. Burks' widow will run as a write-in candidate.
Officials said if Looper wins the election anyway, the State Senate
likely would refuse to seat him and a special election would have to
be held.
Newsletter Editor: Stuart Gorin, I/TDHR
Fax: (202) 619-6520 E-Mail: Go...@USIA.Gov