The Folly of the US-Israeli Myth of a Quick Iranian Collapse

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The Folly of the US-Israeli Myth of a Quick Iranian Collapse

 

By Jenny Williams – Middle East Monitor – May 7, 2026

 

In the intellectual circles of Washington and its allies, a growing certainty is evident: a combination of military and economic pressure can bring Iran to its knees or drive it towards collapse. Analysts present detailed three-step plans to “crush Tehran” and postulate that the West holds strategic superiority. However, a deeper look at the array of global and regional developments illustrates this certainty to be a dangerous “strategic illusion”. These roadmaps, by ignoring systemic consequences, geopolitical blind spots and their own internal vulnerabilities, chart a path towards an uncontrollable and attritional quagmire rather than a route to victory.

 

The fundamental weakness of these analyses is the oversimplification of the conflict’s nature. For example, the strategy of simultaneously intensifying economic and military pressure ignores the fact that modern warfare is a two-way street. While one side focuses on targeting the opponent’s economy, the other side takes the war to a new and dangerous level by targeting energy infrastructure

 

This situation increases the risk of disruption to electricity networks, desalination plants and supply chains, and exposes the structural vulnerability of countries like Israel which rely heavily on these infrastructures. Therefore, the idea of one-sided pressure that only leads to the weakening of the opponent practically turns into an infrastructure war of attrition with no definitive loser.

 

Furthermore, proponents of maximum pressure routinely miscalculate the resilience of global energy markets. They assume that the US and its regional allies can seamlessly replace disrupted oil supplies to prevent price spikes. Yet, an escalated conflict involving the targeting of Iranian facilities guarantees a symmetric response against allied oil producers in the Gulf. Such an outcome would immediately trigger a severe shock to the global economy. That shock would not be an abstraction. It would show up in the price of bread, in fuel queues before dawn, in hospitals delaying shipments, and in families switching off air conditioning in unbearable heat. The first to pay would not be generals or strategists, but shopkeepers, nurses, drivers and migrant workers with no say in the confrontation.

 

Full at:

 

https://www.juancole.com/2026/05/israeli-iranian-collapse.html