Black unemployment

[jsant...@aol.com]

Why rising Black unemployment is a warning sign for America’s economy     

             August, which is heralded as Black Business Month, should have been a time to celebrate the Black labor force. But last month’s jobs report showed unemployment rates increased for Black workers — and it could point to an economic slump.

The unemployment rate for Black workers reached 7.5% in August — its highest level since October 2021 (7.6%) — and followed consecutive increases in June (6.8%) and July (7.2%). A rise in Black unemployment is often considered the “canary in the coal mine,” foretelling a slowdown for the broader job market.

“The most vulnerable people tend to get laid off first, and unfortunately, that tends to be Black Americans, and that’s something that is very disturbing in and of itself,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting firm KPMG US.

Black Americans make up about 13% of the US workforce. A drop in Black Americans in the workforce can have a crippling effect on Black communities and on the US economy, which some economists say is already in a slowdown.

Black Americans are expected to have buying power of $2 trillion by 2026, up from $1.7 trillion in 2024, according to a report from Nielsen.

“When unemployment rises in our communities, it has a rippling effect across entire industries. Not just retail. Housing, health care — the impacts are across the board,” said Joyaa Cole, founder of Joe and Monroe, a Black-owned candle business in Houston.

Cole said that higher rates of Black unemployment would be “devastating,” and it is twice as impactful on small, Black-owned businesses like her own, because Black customers may dial back on discretionary spending.

Black Americans are slower to recover from job losses, which means it can be a long road to recovery. During the pandemic, President Donald Trump touted a jobs recovery in May 2020. But while White unemployment had fallen from 14.2% to 12.4%, Black unemployment held steady at 16.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The rise in unemployment for Black Americans contrasts Trump’s claims that Black workers would fare better under his leadership than under Democrats. In 2016, he famously asked Black voters, “What the hell do you have to lose?”

‘If White America gets a cold, Black America really gets the flu’

The jobs slowdown is due in part to Trump’s economic policies, which include cuts to the federal workforce — of which Black workers make up about 18.7% — sweeping tariffs and diversity, equity and inclusion crackdowns.

Unemployment for Black Americans has led some Black-owned small-business owners to worry about an end-of-year sales slump.

In Atlanta, Charmaine Gibbs-West, the owner of beauty brand Essence Tree, said she will have to let go of one contracted worker and won’t know whether she can bring back the contractor until the fourth quarter, which is usually the busiest time for her company.

“A lot of my customers like to support Black businesses when they can, so to me the unemployment rate indicates that I may have to buckle up a little bit for my business sales,” she said.

Tonya Poindexter, board chair of the Northern Virginia Black Chamber of Commerce, told CNN that when the Black community can’t spend, it weakens small businesses — especially Black-owned brands, which 58% of Black Americans say are important to support to further equality, according to a Pew Research Center report in 2022.

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Nailah Queen, founder of wellness brand Regally Insane in Baltimore, said many Black Americans cut back on discretionary spending after job losses. Queen, who also operates Royalty Escapes Travel Agency, added that some clients are more hesitant to spend thousands of dollars on vacations because of concerns about their job stability.

She plans to do more community outreach and product giveaways, in addition to pop-ups and educational events for Regally Insane in an effort to keep weary consumers engaged with her brand.

Emmanuel Waters, co-founder of North Carolina-based Old Hillside Bourbon Company, told CNN: “I always say that if White America gets a cold, then Black America really gets the flu,” he said.

Waters added that entrepreneurship can be a reliable opportunity for Black Americans because “the systems aren’t for us.”

For Keta Burke-Williams, founder of fragrance brand Ourside in New York City, having a diverse customer base doesn’t mean she can avoid a drop in business when unemployment is high for Black Americans. She says maintaining good relationships with her customers when the economy falters is important because “not everyone gets to bounce back the same way.”

“Overall, I’m concerned about everything for everybody Black,” said Burke-Williams.     

[Tim]

This is a warning, yes. 

+ Put this together with the jobs information from Indeed and ADP (not from the government, which we can now assume will lie to us), and interviews with recruiters and HR professionals. They say the engine is running backwards (manufacturing, distribution, warehousing, construction, all negative). 

+ Add in the reports of farm bankruptcies and the local news reports in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska concerning deportations, lost crops, unharvestable crops (for lack of labor), and unsellable crops (due to the tariffs). 

+ Can recent college graduates get a job in their field?  

+ ARE THERE ANY POSITIVE INDICATORS  AT  ALL ????

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We are back at 2008, right before the housing bubble burst.  Builders are still building, just as they did then.  But the music is about to stop. (in re Margin Call (2011)).

 

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[srobin21]

May well be the time just before the music stops.

Not all Trump's fault of course. The distortions of the stock market predate  the current administration, think the "Magnificent Seven." The Housing affordability crisis goes back many years, if not decades. The impoverishment  of labor goes back decades to the attack on labor unions under Reagan and NAFTA under Clinton.

Other things are happening that have little to do with politics. For instance, Millennials and Zoomers don't drink the way their elders did so wineries and breweries are shutting down and bleeding jobs. A big deal on the West Coast. (Although if you are a wine drinker, you can get some bargains right now on cabernet or pinots).

No really big layoffs yet, but those may come.

SR

Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S25+, an AT&T 5G smartphone

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[brian benjamin]

The orange convicted rapist is a harbinger of disease, dysfunction, destruction and doom.

An avoidable catastrophe in action.

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[brian benjamin]

Thanks for posting this.

On Tuesday, September 9, 2025 at 11:36:52 AM EDT, 'srobin21' via new_continuum <new_co...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

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[Tim]

There are no positive indicators.

As for layoffs?  The big media outlets are not reporting but they always make local news. 

I always liked the Detroit Free Press for auto layoff / hiring news.  

GM plans shift shutdowns at plants that produce electric vehicles

September 4, 2025

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2025/09/04/gm-shift-shutdowns-ev-plants-spring-hill-tennessee/85964568007/

> About 700 employees will be laid off at Spring Hill, GM confirmed.

How big is a "big layoff"?  Is 700 "big"?

I wonder what the hundreds laid off at Hamtramck think of Trump now?  Do they understand what Trump has done, and wants to do, to electric vehicle production?

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[STEVEN ROBINSON]

Fair point Tim.

 

Back in the 1980s when aerospace was king in Southern California layoffs of many thousands would be announced in a single press release. In the 1990s, before the second coming of Steve Jobs Apple would also announce layoffs in the thousands.

 

So far we are seeing layoffs in the hundreds, perhaps one might call it "death by a thousand" cuts. Except for the Feds, thanks to Musk. A huge number are going to get their last paychecks soon. Not good news for folks in Virginia and other places. However, the really big layoffs will occur, if they do, when the big warehouses built outside the larger cities, like Los Angeles, Chicago and elsewhere shutdown due to  lack of consumer demand.  In those cases we will be talking in the thousands.

 

Note also the downward revision of job creation by 911,000 for the first quarter of 2025 just out now. See https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/09/business/us-bls-jobs-preliminary-benchmark-revisions

 

Trump may be responsible for some of that, but by no means all. The U.S. economy was having problems for sometime. The change in administration made it worse, of course.

 

SR

 

On 09/09/2025 9:11 AM PDT Tim <pony...@gmail.com> wrote:

 

 

There are no positive indicators.

 

As for layoffs?  The big media outlets are not reporting but they always make local news. 

 

I always liked the Detroit Free Press for auto layoff / hiring news.  

 

GM plans shift shutdowns at plants that produce electric vehicles

September 4, 2025

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/general-motors/2025/09/04/gm-shift-shutdowns-ev-plants-spring-hill-tennessee/85964568007/

 

> About 700 employees will be laid off at Spring Hill, GM confirmed.

How big is a "big layoff"?  Is 700 "big"?

I wonder what the hundreds laid off at Hamtramck think of Trump now?  Do they understand what Trump has done, and wants to do, to electric vehicle production?

 

 

 

BmgfgW%3DG1YUeqWb7vtT33AZp1Ohw%40mail.gmail.com.

[Tim]

I remember the huge layoffs in the 70s.  

I used to think those companies were cruel and horribly mismanaged.  Later I realized they were managing almost everything on paper. The largest mainframes were rented - Time Sharing, it was called - and if a company could afford it, they could get some time on what amounted to a computer roughly as powerful as the average laptop of 2025.  Predictive modeling was crude and nearly useless.  Management must have come down to struggling to decide who had the better hunch.

And that's what it was in 1985 when Sculley took over from Jobs.  Two weeks after Sculley got the power, he laid off 1,200 people, which was about 20% of the company.  The Mac was supposed to be a failed product. The Lisa really was a failed product (poor hardware design, poor software design, and poor dealer relations!).  Apple then rode the Mac to huge profits and company value - Sculley's marketing tricks did wonders. 

An aside - Sculley's agent listed their Palm Beach property for $54.9 million in January.  It just sold for $37 million.  That's ok. He can afford to take the hit.  And he's 86.

The WARN act took effect in early 1989.  I think that made a difference in corporate planning.  Better tools did, too.  MBA education became a growth industry and every graduate had computer skills. 

I did some computerized accounting work for a $20 million (annual sales) copper plumbing parts manufacturer in 1985.  They installed a few IBM PC clones and wired up a network. The CEO made most of the company's profits by doing predictive modeling on copper futures and executing trades.  They had a million dollars worth of copper in the warehouse, at peak.  He sold some of it, when profitable.  His tools?  A desk calculator.  A ticker of current stock prices, reporting in his office.  The Wall Street Journal. A couple of trade magazines.  And, in a chart he made himself, which papered the walls of his office, a history of the traded price of copper, going back to the origin of the market. He worked about two hours a day. Layoffs?  The CEO laid men off when he didn't need them and called them back when he did.  The locals loved and hated the business.  It paid well - when you could work there. 

The last small business I worked for (manufacturer with <50 employees) was run by a couple who used predictive modeling to do business planning.  Nothing fancy. But those tools saved jobs, helped them redirect resources, and keep them afloat in hard times. 

The way I read the details of what GM has been doing this year, I think they are making changes based on modern models that show them where they need to increase production and where they need to reduce production.  The tariffs are not the whole story. Changes in the EV markets are not the whole story. It's complicated - but if you work in the auto industry in Hamtramck or Spring Hill, you care mostly about your own job security, yes?  And all you see out your window is trouble.

Black unemployment is how this conversation started.  I think we should ask questions and break it down. How much of that is Federal employees since January 20?  How much of that is in manufacturing, and of that, what sort of manufacturing is shrinking in 2025?

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[John M. Burt]

This is a @#$%ing disaster, coming as it does just two years after the lowest African American unemployment in the nation's history: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/icymi-black-unemployment-rate-hits-record-low

ICYMI: Black Unemployment Rate Hits Record Low Today, we learned that under President Biden, the unemployment rate for Black workers fell to a record low and the gap between Black and overall unemployment shrank to the smallest it's been on record. www.presidency.ucsb.edu

John M. Burt

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From: 'jsant...@aol.com' via new_continuum <new_co...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, September 8, 2025 23:31
To: JOHN SANTAELLA <jsant...@aol.com>
Subject: [new_continuum] Black unemployment

 

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[brian benjamin]

Thank you.

On Tuesday, September 9, 2025 at 10:40:54 PM EDT, Freak By Nature <close...@gmail.com> wrote:

Brian.

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Brotherman (Freak By Nature)

"Mistakes might be forgiven, But you suppose to pay for being stupid!!"