Quantum Universe
Mark Brader
> "Page estimates that the chances of 'The Creator sticking
> in a pin' and pulling out just this combination of qualities
> that makes such a unique universe are way beyond
> astronomical, 1 in (10,000,000,000)^124."
>
> Such a statement tends to increase the entropy in my head.
Oh come on, events much rarer than that happen all the time in
duplicate bridge. Look, the number of possible deals is 52!/(13!)^4, right?
That's 53644737765488792839237440000, if I didn't make a typo in bc.
If just two 28-board sessions are played, you're seeing an event with a
probability that is that number to the 56th power, or roughly 2.67 x 10^1568.
That beats your 10^1240 by 328 orders of magnitude.
The point is, rare events are only interesting if they don't fall into
families of equally rare events -- if they can be distinguished qualitatively,
say. For instance, staying with bridge, a "perfect deal" would be a notable
rare event; a typical deal is an equally rare event, but not notable.
If conclusions are to be drawn from that number 10^1240, the first requirement
is to demonstrate that this universe is in fact qualitatively different
from the other 10^1240 or so. If it isn't, the number is a red herring.
(I haven't read the thing Fred was quoting, and if the original author
did in fact put forth persuasive arguments, I retract my implication that
they were being silly.)
Mark Brader