History. Angst. The Economy
Shelton Garner
<dani...@wharton.upenn.edu> wrote:
>I just finished the second chapter of "The Great Depression: America,
>1929-1941" by Robert S. McElvaine (Times Books, 1984; LC call # E 806
>M43 1984). The chapter dealt with origins of the Great Depression in
>the 1920s. I found the similarities between conditions then and
>conditions now to be amazing, such as massive credit spending, uneven
>income distribution, the dependence of the US economy on the automobile
>(nowadays obviously the computer), and the feeling that the economic
>boom would last forever. I can understand why some books were published
>in the 1980s predicting another depression in the early 1990s.
> Anyway, add Y2K into today's economic equation and there are going to
>be serious problems. I wonder when the business and political leaders
>and media are going to admit that we're at the peak of growth and headed
>toward another recession. (Maybe then they'll also admit that Y2K is a
>major problem that cannot be fixed on a large scale.)
While I tend to agree that we're headed for a slow down in the near
term--for collective-pychological reasons if nothing else, anytime
someone says "the 'x0s are just like the '20s, we're ALL GONNA DIE" I
wince. Although the Y2K Bug _may_ cause a Second Great Depression, it
is by no means certain. Remember, the Fed (the governmental
organization that ultimately will decide if we do have a Second Great
Depression) has _learned_ from the late 20s. There are many, many
differences from the 20s, so many that I suspect any Y2K Bug economic
problems we have will be short but harsh.
I'm more worried right now about North Korea invading the south and
China attacking Tawain (sp?)...or some Death Cult using Ebola/small
nuke on a Major American City than I am "the '90s are just like the
'20s!" I mean, yes, we shouldn't forget the past, but we shouldn't
automaticly assume it's going to repeat itself.
And yes, Yo-yo is right that cutting taxes is a good way to stimulate
the economy. (Priming the pump is a good way too, as I said before.)
I'm just a little worried that if the economy goes to hell in a hand
basket, we'll endup with a Kook Republican who wants to see an end to
free trade (one of the reasons why the Great Depression was Great)
instead of a sane Republican like George W. Bush.
lee
L. Shelton Bumgarner -- Keeper of the Great Renaming FAQ
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YoYo
>(Priming the pump is a good way too, as I said before.)
Except that it's not. It's a short-term solution that leaves you with
long-term problems, such as massive public debts that play hell with
intrest rates, and tends to reinforce the very problems it's intended to
solve. It's not regarded as badly as it should be, though, because people
generally like it when the government gives them money.
--
----YoYo------...@tezcat.com------------and stuff------
"Consider this rule of thumb: To the extent that philosophical
positions both confuse and close doors to further inquiry, they
are likely to be wrong." -Edward O. Wilson
Jim Kingdon
> generally like it when the government gives them money.
Yup, and politicians like to give away money. It is kind of an
awkward organizational feature - people don't go into politics priding
themselves on how many problems they are going to completely and
utterly stay out of, as much as they go into politics because they
would like to solve problems.
I sort of feel like there are some signs of impending sanity, due to a
Republican Congress mostly I guess, but maybe I'm just mistaking a
long business cycle for genuine structure strengths.
Kate Wrightson
Jim Kingdon <kin...@panix7.panix.com> wrote:
>I sort of feel like there are some signs of impending sanity, due to a
>Republican Congress mostly I guess, but maybe I'm just mistaking a
>long business cycle for genuine structure strengths.
Yeah. Unfortunately, I think that this particular cycle has stayed up
long enough that *lots* of folks, including Congresscritters, have
mistaken it for something due to structural integrity.
--
___________________________________________________________________________
ka...@eyrie.org Kate Wrightson www.eyrie.org/~kate
YoYo
>>I sort of feel like there are some signs of impending sanity, due to a
>>Republican Congress mostly I guess, but maybe I'm just mistaking a
>>long business cycle for genuine structure strengths.
>
>Yeah. Unfortunately, I think that this particular cycle has stayed up
>long enough that *lots* of folks, including Congresscritters, have
>mistaken it for something due to structural integrity.
I think there *are* structural reasons why the economy has been good. Real
Cheap oil being a big one (I've been buying gas for under $0.80/gal
lately). Also, the aforementioned baby boomer
retirement-saving-stock-buying orgy, and a Fed chairman who actually seems
to understand monetary policy.
This is not to say that one or all of these things coulnd't go south
pretty quickly.
Kate Wrightson
YoYo <yo...@huitzilo.tezcat.com> wrote:
>This is not to say that one or all of these things coulnd't go south
>pretty quickly.
And this is why I pray for the health of the Chairman every night.
karmic acid
Shelton Garner <lee_s_b...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>On Wed, 29 Jul 1998 23:57:41 -0400, Daniel Callahan
><dani...@wharton.upenn.edu> wrote:
>>I just finished the second chapter of "The Great Depression: America,
>>1929-1941" by Robert S. McElvaine (Times Books, 1984; LC call # E 806
That name. It's just too close for comfort.
rone
--
NASA uses Windows? Oh great. If Apollo 13 went off course today the manual
would just tell them to open the airlock, flush the astronauts out, and
re-install new ones.
- Kibo
Jim Kingdon
> >>M43 1984). ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>
> That name. It's just too close for comfort.
I had the exact same reaction :-).
I think my uncle still has a McElwaine T shirt. Maybe I should ask
him some time when I see him.