Nepal’s Peace Process: The Endgame Nears
Paul Johnson
Nepal’s peace process has moved into a phase of definitive progress.
More than five years after the ceasefire, the parties have reached a
deal on the Maoist fighters, who will leave the cantonments and enter
the army or civilian life. An unofficial deal sets out power-sharing
arrangements until the next election. The parties are focusing on the
critical task of writing a new constitution, which promises a deep
restructuring of the state to become more representative and
decentralised. Challenges remain, including from continuously evolving
coalition dynamics and divisions within parties. There will also have
to be further discussions on the combatants. As the parties discuss
federalism, which of all peace process issues goes most to the heart
of ordinary Nepalis’ expectations and anxieties, groups within and
outside the Constituent Assembly will see their options narrow, which
could strain the process. Yet, this is still the best chance the
parties have had to reach formal closure on the war and to institute
some of the fundamental changes they promised, provided they have the
courage to make far-sighted compromises.
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The peace process has informally come to mean only the question of the
Maoist fighters, rather than the whole of the CPA. Politicians do
regard the constitution as a matter of urgency, but they are also
exhausted and want to see the process quickly concluded, so Nepal can
go back to business as usual. The commitment to democratise the Nepal
Army has already been dropped. The commission on land reform is a dead-
end. The issue of justice for war-era abuses continues to be defined
by the lack of incentive for all actors to deal with it. These issues
and the complexities of federalism will not lose relevance simply
because the mainstream parties decide to ignore them. Whether or not
they prove to be drivers of mass mobilisation or violence in the
coming months, they will be critical ahead of the next general
election. Nepal’s political class needs to make some difficult
decisions rather quickly, so as to ensure its own relevance.