Risk assessment update

[Megan Sebasky]

How to start with my first post on risk assessment.........

There's a LOT going on, within and outside of our region. It's very hard to keep up with. I am attempting to support efforts in our region because LANDFIRE is a key input to many of the risk assessment methodologies used across the country. At the recent Northeast Cohesive Strategy Committee Face-to-Face meeting and the Northeast Forest Fire Supervisors meeting, I attempted to share what I have learned about wildfire risk assessment over the past several months - what has been done, what is currently being done, how these relate, etc. See my attached slides for that attempt.

After tons of literature review and discussions with experts, it has become apparent that we need to clearly define our goals and expectations for these assessments, as well as definitions of risk-related terms (risk vs. hazard, etc) before going too far down any road. In order to get at this, I brought a coloring exercise to the meetings. I asked folks to focus only on HAZARD (burn probability and severity) first, as we will focus on mapping this aspect first, and bring in values at risk later. Trying to color "hazard" expectations on a map resulted in a lot of very fruitful discussions on how to define terms, how we might map hazard and risk, etc, as well as a stack of beautiful colored in maps. I've attached a couple examples, as well as a blank version so you can color your own! Please feel free to send colored maps to megan....@wisconsin.gov. On the opposite side of the map, I also ask some leading questions about hazard mapping and related datasets that are available. Enjoy! More to come.

[nelan...@gmail.com]

USFS Region 9 has officially awarded a contract to Pyrologix to conduct a risk assessment for the region using the methods described in publication RMRS-GTR-315: “A Wildfire Risk Assessment Framework for Land and Resource Management.” This will involve 1) wall-to-wall HAZARD (burn probability, burn severity) mapping for all 20 states and 2) full RISK mapping (addition of resources and assets at risk) for ONLY the area of the national forests plus a 10 mile buffer around FS lands. There are TWO ways you can support and benefit from this effort:

1. The hazard mapping will involve calibration of the LANDFIRE fuel model data (with YOUR help!!). Please let us know your knowledge of FBFMs and how we can help you learn more to make these workshops more successful. All you have to do is take 3-5 minutes to complete THIS SURVEY. More information to come on local calibration workshops.
   
2. Help fund a wall-to-wall risk map in part 2 of the effort. See the attached briefing paper for more information.