11th Annual NEWxSFC - Snow Storm #6 - Call for Forecasts

[TQ]

Northern stream short-wave forecast to intensify as it swings onto the
east coast from the Upper Plains. Surface LOW expected to follow a
familiar path through BWI and along coastal SNE where NWP models
suggest it may linger in the Gulf of Maine...blocked by strong HIGH
pressure over Greenland.

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Deadline: 10:30 PM EST SUN...14-FEB-10

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST MON...15-FEB-10
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST WED...17-FEB-10

Enter your forecast at the Contest web site (http://www.newx-
forecasts.com/)
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for
personal information to enter. Just a fun exercise to see who can make
the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this year...or you entered the
'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account
(user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your
forecast sent to your Inbox).

NEWxSFC home page:
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Web log:
http://newxsfc.blogspot.com/

[TQ]

Entry No. 967
Forecaster = herb@maws
Time = 2/14/2010 5:27:31 PM
CAR = 2
BGR = 2
PWM = 8
CON = 6
BTV = 2
BOS = 2
HYA = 1
ORH = 5
PVD = 2
BDR = 3.5
BDL = 4
ALB = 1
BGM = 8
ISP = 3
JFK = 4
ABE = 4
MDT = 4
PHL = 1
ACY = 1.5
EWR = 4
BWI = 2.5
IAD = 4
DCA = 1
SBY = 0.5
RIC = 0
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 968
Forecaster = Roger Smith
Time = 2/14/2010 7:15:30 PM
CAR = 10.0
BGR = 8.2
PWM = 6.5
CON = 5.5
BTV = 2.0
BOS = 4.2
HYA = 0.3
ORH = 7.8
PVD = 3.6
BDR = 6.5
BDL = 6.0
ALB = 7.5
BGM = 3.3
ISP = 0.8
JFK = 1.5
ABE = 6.0
MDT = 5.2
PHL = 4.8
ACY = 1.2
EWR = 4.5
BWI = 3.3
IAD = 2.2
DCA = 1.5
SBY = 0.5
RIC = 0.3
ORF = 0.2
RDU = 0.1
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 969
Forecaster = weatherT
Time = 2/14/2010 7:42:16 PM
CAR = 6.5
BGR = 9.0
PWM = 6.0
CON = 7.5
BTV = 4.0
BOS = 5.0
HYA = 4.0
ORH = 8.2
PVD = 4.3
BDR = 3.6
BDL = 6.0
ALB = 9.0
BGM = 5.5
ISP = 2.5
JFK = 4.5
ABE = 8.0
MDT = 5.8
PHL = 3.5
ACY = 0.5
EWR = 5.0
BWI = 0.8
IAD = 1.4
DCA = 1.0
SBY = 0.5
RIC = 0.05
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 970
Forecaster = ilibov
Time = 2/14/2010 9:01:57 PM
CAR = 2.2
BGR = 3.7
PWM = 4.2
CON = 7.2
BTV = 6.5
BOS = 3.2
HYA = 0.75
ORH = 4.2
PVD = 2.6
BDR = 2.3
BDL = 3.1
ALB = 8.5
BGM = 7.6
ISP = 2.1
JFK = 2.4
ABE = 3.2
MDT = 3.5
PHL = 1.75
ACY = .50
EWR = 2.25
BWI = 1.75
IAD = 1.5
DCA = 1.75
SBY = 0.05
RIC = .25
ORF = 0
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 971
Forecaster = TQ
Time = 2/14/2010 10:28:12 PM
CAR = 8
BGR = 7
PWM = 5
CON = 6
BTV = 5
BOS = 2
HYA = .05
ORH = 6
PVD = .05
BDR = 2
BDL = 7
ALB = 7
BGM = 5
ISP = 1
JFK = 2
ABE = 6
MDT = 5
PHL = 2
ACY = .05
EWR = 5
BWI = 1
IAD = 1
DCA = 1
SBY = .05
RIC = .05
ORF = .05
RDU = 0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 972
Forecaster = millersville_bauers
Time = 2/14/2010 10:29:02 PM
CAR = 7.5
BGR = 6.0
PWM = 4.5
CON = 4.8
BTV = 5.5
BOS = 4.0
HYA = 3.2
ORH = 4.2
PVD = 4.5
BDR = 4.0
BDL = 3.4
ALB = 5.6
BGM = 6.0
ISP = 2.5
JFK = 7.2
ABE = 7.5
MDT = 2.5
PHL = 4.5
ACY = 2.2
EWR = 5.5
BWI = 3.3
IAD = 1.3
DCA = 1.5
SBY = 0.6
RIC = 0.05
ORF = 0
RDU = 0.05
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 973
Forecaster = donsutherland1
Time = 2/14/2010 10:29:25 PM
CAR = 4.1
BGR = 6.4
PWM = 7.2
CON = 7.0
BTV = 3.4
BOS = 4.3
HYA = 1.2
ORH = 5.2
PVD = 2.5
BDR = 1.5
BDL = 5.0
ALB = 5.4
BGM = 6.4
ISP = 1.2
JFK = 1.2
ABE = 4.3
MDT = 4.3
PHL = 1.5
ACY = 0.8
EWR = 2.5
BWI = 0.8
IAD = 1.5
DCA = 0.8
SBY = 0.05
RIC = 0.0
ORF = 0.0
RDU = 0.0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 974
Forecaster = Donald Rosenfeld
Time = 2/14/2010 10:29:35 PM
CAR = 1.25
BGR = 6.0
PWM = 10.0
CON = 8.5
BTV = 1.25
BOS = 8.5
HYA = 4.75
ORH = 5.5
PVD = 4.25
BDR = 2.0
BDL = 3.5
ALB = 2.5
BGM = 2.25
ISP = 1.3
JFK = 1.6
ABE = 2.2
MDT = 1.5
PHL = 1.5
ACY = 1.15
EWR = 2.0
BWI = 1.25
IAD = 0.50
DCA = 0.45
SBY = 0.30
RIC = 0.75
ORF = 0.25
RDU = 1.00
Comments =
----End of Entry----

Entry No. 975
Forecaster = Raven
Time = 2/14/2010 10:29:53 PM
CAR = 6.3
BGR = 13.2
PWM = 19.5
CON = 14.5
BTV = 3.2
BOS = 13.3
HYA = 8.5
ORH = 8.5
PVD = 7.7
BDR = 3.2
BDL = 4.2
ALB = 3.3
BGM = 5.5
ISP = 3.0
JFK = 3.0
ABE = 3.8
MDT = 2.2
PHL = 2.0
ACY = 1.0
EWR = 3.5
BWI = 2.3
IAD = 1.2
DCA = 1.0
SBY = 0.2
RIC = 0.3
ORF = 0.0
RDU = 0.0
Comments =
----End of Entry----

[TQ]

Nine entries...including two Rookies... one Intern...and six Senior
forecasters...issued 229 station forecasts for the winter/s 6th
contest snow storm.

Everyone's station forecasts have been posted on the Contest's web
site.

Verification period ends 11:59 PM EST...WED 17-FEB-10.

Preliminary storm-total snowfall amounts will be posted the evening of
THU 18-FEB-10.

[TQ]

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday through Wednesday from
CDUS41 and METARs have been posted to the web log

No new daily records.

Please report errors and a link to the correct data.

Final results and storm summary Friday evening.

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[TQ]

NEWxSFC Senior forecaster ilibov has won this season/s 6th snowfall
forecast contest.

SUMSQ error: 126.6"
Z-score: -0.746

Improvement over the average error: 53% (268")

Perfect forecast @ISP and SBY

Lowest station errors @CAR...PWM...ISP...ACY...and SBY

Congratulations ilibov!

2nd Place: herb @ maws (151.9"; -0.612)
3rd Place: donsutherland1 (153.5"; -0.604)
Honorable Mention: Donald Rosenfeld (189.5"; -0.413)

Full forecast verification...storm summary...and final results at the
Contest web site.