ophelia stalls, strengthens, new forecast

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Alphonso

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Sep 11, 2005, 5:56:07 AM9/11/05
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Hurricane Ophelia has strengthened - and stalled again off the
Carolinas. The latest outlook keeps her over water passing near
Hatteras and reaching a point about 150 miles south of Westerly, RI on
Day 5, moving NE as a tropical storm
Hurricane Ophelia Forecast/Advisory Number 20 Statement as of 09:00Z on
September 11, 2005
at 5 am EDT...0900z...a portion of the Hurricane Watch area from
Savannah River South Carolina northeastward to Edisto Beach South
Carolina has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the
United States from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina northeastward
to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be
shifted northward later today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coastal region
should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
Hurricane center located near 31.7n 75.9w at 11/0900z position accurate
within 20 nm
present movement is stationary
estimated minimum central pressure 978 mb eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. 64 kt....... 25ne 25se
25sw 25nw.
50 kt....... 50ne 50se 35sw 50nw.
34 kt.......130ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
12 ft seas..175ne 175se 210sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles
are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 31.7n 75.9w at 11/0900z at 11/0600z center
was located near 31.7n 75.9w
forecast valid 11/1800z 31.6n 76.0w
(about 250 mi. S of Hatteras)
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 12/0600z 31.6n 76.2w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 12/1800z 32.0n 76.5w
(about 220 mi. S of Hatteras)
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 13/0600z 32.6n 76.7w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 14/0600z 34.0n 76.5w
(about 50 mi. SW of Hatteras)
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 35sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 90sw 130nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm on
day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 15/0600z 36.5n 75.0w
(about 50 mi. ESE of Norfolk, VA)
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
Outlook valid 16/0600z 39.5n 71.0w
(about 150 mi. S of Westerly, RI)
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 31.7n 75.9w
next advisory at 11/1500z
forecaster Knabb
(land point references added)


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