Don't Write Him Off

[Alphonso]

Sometimes, although not very often, a tropical cyclone gets trapped
underneath a ridge, usually when the cyclone reduces its forward speed
and misses the trough pulling out, and then a high pressure ridge
builds to its north instead. The cyclone hangs, loops, and then embarks
on a comeback as a hurricane. There is a small but growing camp with an
erie eye on Tropical Storm Franklin. That race out to sea on the five
day is important. If instead he decides to slow down to half-speed,
he'll miss the trough when he's half way out there, hang in there for a
day or two, loop and turn back under the ridge - and toward the
mainland of the United States - as Hurricane Franklin.

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[Perry]

Interesting, Alphonso. What do you think the odds are of that happening?

"Alphonso" <lo...@webtv.net> wrote in message

[Alphonso]

Perry wrote:> Interesting, Alphonso. What do you think the odds are of

"wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)I'm
sorry Perry; I forgot to check for replies here over the last couple of
days. After I posted this, I checked the progs to see how real this
possibility they were talking about actually was. I found
southwesterlies north of the Bermuda high on the 24, 36, and 48 hour
progs from this past Monday, and a dying ridge over Florida and I
didn't bother to track Franklin that much after that figuring it wasn't
going anywhere soon. I'm not an expert, but next time I'll check the
progs before I post. Franklin's going to turn northeast this morning,
but there are two more African waves on the way, the first to reach the
Bahamas by the weekend. They say the high SSTs could eventually bring
some tropical action up the coast. I think it's going to take more than
that, and I haven't had much time to check the projections for August
to see if there's anything to what is being said about east coast
threats, but as you can see by Franklin, we're definitely not set up
for a threat in the northeast at this time. Sorry about not double
checking before I posted, and take care, Lou

[Perry]

"Alphonso" <lo...@webtv.net> wrote in message

> sorry Perry; I forgot to check for replies here over the last couple of
> days. After I posted this, I checked the progs to see how real this

No problem, Lou, appreciate your observations.

> threats, but as you can see by Franklin, we're definitely not set up

It's interesting to me the path that Franklin is wandering on!

-Perry-