A wavy look at Ashland year to date temp departures...
Jot Ross
looked at temp departures in Ashland, MA from January 1 through July 2, a
data set of 180+ numbers. Despite the fact the a graph of these data points
looked like a mumbo-jumbo, MacCurveFit fit a sine wave through the points
with great ease. The equation of this wave is Departure = 5.37 x sin(.842 x
M + .676) + 2.75 where M = month (January 1 = 0, February 1 = 1 etc). The
actual average departure so far this year is 3 (my database computes to
nearest whole). This compares well to the ł2.75˛ term in this equation
which is the horizontal axis about which the wave oscillates. The ł.842˛
allows me to compute the period of this wave: 2 x pi/.842 = 6.28/.842 = 7
1/2 months. Put another way, history should repeat itself every 7.5 months.
The term ł5.37˛ is the amplitude of the wave. In other words, so far this
year, łon the average˛ the departure has ranged a hefty 10.8 or about 11
degrees.
Below is an attempt to show you the wave nature of the curve fit. The
numbers on the left are months, and the bracketed numbers is average
departure (to nearest whole number). At or about February 1, I was running
outside in a tee shirt. In latter May, I saw snowflakes.
The graph at 6.5 months and beyond is a prediction for departures over the
balance of 2002. Should this pattern continue, we should see high temp
departures in September and we should be going negative at the end of the
year (good news for typical WX lovers, bad news for me!)
0 ++++++++++ [6]
0.5 ++++++++++++ [8]
1 ++++++++++++ [8]
1.5 ++++++++++++ [8]
2 +++++++++++ [7]
2.5 +++++++++ [5]
3 ++++++ [2]
3.5 ++++ [0]
4 +++ [-1]
4.5 ++ [-2]
5 + [-3]
5.5 ++ [-2]
6 ++++ [0]
Projection
6.5 ++++++ [2]
7 ++++++++ [4]
7.5 ++++++++++ [6]
8 ++++++++++++ [8]
8.5 ++++++++++++ [8]
9 ++++++++++++ [8]
9.5 ++++++++++ [6]
10 ++++++++ [4]
10.5 ++++++ [2]
11 ++++ [0]
Jot Ross - Ashland, MA
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Stephen Stein
Ross" <jot...@ma.ultranet.com> wrote:
[some cool analysis of the last 6 month temp deviations from normal
including:]
> The equation of this wave is
> Departure = 5.37 x sin(.842 x M + .676) + 2.75
> The ³.842²
> allows me to compute the period of this wave: 2 x pi/.842 = 6.28/.842 = 7
> 1/2 months. Put another way, history should repeat itself every 7.5 months.
I really like this sort of analysis, and I'd like to see more, but I have a
couple of observations:
1) You've described a phenomenon with a period of 7.5 months using 6 months
of data. I don't think you have enough data. :-)
2) If this cycle verifies in the long-term, this can be the groundwork for
astrological weather theories. !! This is NOT meant as an insult - I am
serious !! Anyone who has dabbled in astrology looks for periodic patterns
in other spheres. And there are enough periodic patterns in astrology to
find a particular astrological phenomenon that correlates to a particular
periodic observation. (No, I don't know what correlates to 7.5 months
off-hand.)
I think it is more plausible that astrology is relevant to weather than to
personal relationships. There is at least one weather-related phenomenon
that is consistently verified with astrological means. (Bonus question -
name this phenomenon!)
- Steve Stein
Steve Okonski
> I think it is more plausible that astrology is relevant to weather than to
> personal relationships. There is at least one weather-related phenomenon
> that is consistently verified with astrological means. (Bonus question -
> name this phenomenon!)
Hmm, the sun's apparent progress through the constellations?
Jot Ross
wrote on 7/3/02 9:56 AM:
Hi Steve - The sine wave is over a six month span and is not quite one
wavelength long (6/7.5 = ~80% of a wavelength.) We went from warmest to
coolest in about 3 3/4 month.
Also, I am not a big fan of Astrology but have heard about the cyclical
pattern thing. Does the phenomenom you hint at have anything to do with the
moon, tides etc?
Jot
Stephen Z. Stein
inte...@insystem.com wrote on 7/3/02 11:01 AM:
> Stephen Stein wrote:
>
>> I think it is more plausible that astrology is relevant to weather than to
>> personal relationships. There is at least one weather-related phenomenon
>> that is consistently verified with astrological means. (Bonus question -
>> name this phenomenon!)
>
> Hmm, the sun's apparent progress through the constellations?
>
Well, yes that correlates strongly with mean temperature. :-) But no, it's
not the one I'm thinking of.
The one I'm thinking of is due to a real, physics-based effect (at least as
far as I'm aware of). And no, it's not tides either.
- Steve Stein
Stephen Z. Stein
jot...@ma.ultranet.com wrote on 7/3/02 11:46 AM:
> in article B9487B62.10E9%s...@ultranet.com, Stephen Stein at s...@ultranet.com
> wrote on 7/3/02 9:56 AM:
>
>> There is at least one weather-related phenomenon
>> that is consistently verified with astrological means. (Bonus question -
>> name this phenomenon!)
>>
>> - Steve Stein
>>
>>
>>
> Does the phenomenom you hint at have anything to do with the
> moon, tides etc?
>
That's not the one I'm thinking of. (Do tides have an effect on the
weather?)
- Steve Stein
Linda Nash
> >> that is consistently verified with astrological means. (Bonus question -
> >> name this phenomenon!)
> >>
The Blizzard of 96 ?
Linda Nash in Princeton, where its so hot even the garter snakes
have been hiding for 3 days
Sacryd Dreamz
>From: Jot Ross jot...@ma.ultranet.com
>Date: 7/3/02 9:19 AM Eastern Daylight Time
>Message-id: <B9487226.10794%jot...@ma.ultranet.com>
Wasn't the temp departure between August 2001 and January 2002 (Sept.-Jan.)
greater than 6? If true, then you don't really have a trend or a pattern,
because the "pattern" hasn't even repeated itself yet. I do like what I see,
though more data would be better.
-Randy-
Jot Ross
sacryd...@aol.com wrote on 7/4/02 01:53:
I agree that I am pushing the envelope here a bit, but its fun to discover
the many times sine wave patterns show up here and there!
--
Jot Ross