DeMarre Carroll

[Evan Zamir]

One of the top rated players according to RAPM. It seems he came into the league with no 3-pt shot and now is a legit 3&D player. Is he for real? I don't watch a lot of Hawks games admittedly.

Does the eye test match the numbers? Or is this a RAPM outlier?

[Harrison Brown]

I watch some Hawks games living in Atlanta, but I'm a very casual Hawks fan so take this with a few grains of salt. Offensively, Carroll's pretty good but from what I've seen he rarely looks like the best player on the floor. I think he gets a lot of open looks from playing alongside Millsap and especially Korver. Not to mention Teague, who I think suffers from being a merely very good point guard in an era with lots of great ones.

I never really watched Marre that closely on defense, but expert opinion, box score stats, and traditional "advanced" metrics (i.e., DWS and DRtg) all agree that he's a solid plus on that end of the court.

There might also be some modelling issues since he was backed up by Cartier Martin and/or Lou Williams for most of the season. I've heard that Nick Collison has tended to be overrated by adjusted +/- since he backs up Kendrick Perkins and something similar might be going on here. But I'm not sure how xRAPM deals with those sorts of problems, so who really knows. Other than Jeremias Engelmann, I guess.

On Mon, Jun 23, 2014 at 8:11 PM, Evan Zamir <zamir...@gmail.com> wrote:

One of the top rated players according to RAPM. It seems he came into the league with no 3-pt shot and now is a legit 3&D player. Is he for real? I don't watch a lot of Hawks games admittedly.

Does the eye test match the numbers? Or is this a RAPM outlier?

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[coopersmither]

Great defender. He's an ideal perimeter defender because he still has footspeed, but he can handle bigger wings as well.

I remember a game against my Raps, he shut down DeMar DeRozan for a solid 3 and 1/2 quarters before a combo DD and Kyle stole the game.

Ideally, he could be a really good teams 4th best player. A very valuable piece that turned even more valuable this year once coaching helped get his shot on track.

[andy]

I wrote this on DMC last summer: http://saltcityhoops.com/demarre-carrolls-war-on-possessions/

Essentially, I think he doesn't help with efficiency, but with number of opportunities.

Andy

[Nathan S]

I wonder if KJ McDaniels could be the same kind of player. That would be a nice value in the late teens or early 20's.

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[Harrison Brown]

I happened to have the numbers handy (working on some statistical +/- stuff), and for what it's worth, DMC isn't nearly the offensive rebounder he was with the Jazz. Some of that is undoubtedly Atlanta's system de-emphasizing offensive boards (28th in the NBA in ORb%), and he did post a pretty great DRB% (and steal and turnover rate), but I'm not sure "DeMarre Carroll, extra-possession monster" quite works as an explanation for his sky-high '13-'14 xRAPM.

On Mon, Jun 23, 2014 at 9:41 PM, andy <java...@gmail.com> wrote:

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[Seth Partnow]

Didn't he play some small ball 4 for Utah but has been used exclusively as a 3 by Atlanta.

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[thomas.pestak]

He was so surprisingly high in RAPM in his last season with the Jazz I used an 8th round pick on him in my fantasy league (i was wildly mocked).  I never dropped him, as I was invested in my idea early on and after Horford went down with injury his production just rose higher and higher.

I don't have RAPM snapshots but I believe he was OK early in the season and really turned it on around January.

[thomas.pestak]

According to 82games.com he did not play any small ball 4 with the Jazz - was used exclusively at the 3 and a little bit at the 2.  http://www.82games.com/1213/12UTA8.HTM

On Monday, June 23, 2014 10:35:41 PM UTC-4, seth.partnow wrote:

[Evan Zamir]

Actually…hehe…if you go to nbawowy and do a search, you’ll see a couple lineups with Carroll and Evans (which one is the 3?):

http://nbawowy.com/query/8sawb68ld3elv7vi

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[andy]

There, Evans is definitely the 4. In fact, Evans has pretty much been only a PF for most of the last two seasons, now with Utah.