CP3 - Harden Backcourt

[Reed Darcey]

Very fascinating experiment that may at first glance and on paper seem like a bad idea, but the game isn't played on paper: I think they'll be successful. Any problem between Paul and Harden will likely be the same that we've seen at the dawn of other superteams such as Lebron's in Miami and Cleveland: distributing touches equally and effectively. That's not to say this won't work: both Harden and Paul have apparently been committed to joining forces, Harden actively recruiting CP3, and Paul turning down nearly $14 million to go to Houston over San Antonio. The right system is in place, and Houston may not be finished making moves.  

Thoughts? 

[Evan Zamir]

The question for me is that Houston was already 2nd in ORTG last season. Seems like there could be serious diminishing returns, and I just don't think HOU is good enough on the defensive end (this trade doesn't really move the needle there) to really be a serious contender. I think there's got to be another piece to the puzzle coming this summer. If they can land PG, that will be interesting (to me as a Warriors fan).

-evan

[ElGee]

In Thinking Basketball, I call this issue "portability" -- basically how well a player's game scales on better and better teams. Evan's point here is that because Hou is already really good at offense, it's hard to make them much better at offense, especially doing the same things that the guy who helps them the most already does. And I think that's what you meant, Reed, by it doesn't look good on paper. That's fair. But...

In thinking more deeply, here's where I see opportunity for growth: Houston has struggled in the PS on offense as their system around Harden is predictable. Harden himself struggles. So even though they posted a 115 offense this year, they are mixing in a number of small-ball lineups (sacrificing defense) to achieve that mark, and it's not resilient against better defenses in the playoffs. In this sense, if they held the offense around 114 with stronger defensive players on the floor, they would improve. And they improve PS odds a lot by creating a more resilient offense. Well how do they improve if Paul and Harden are redundant?

They might not be as redundant as we think. They can both play off the ball. It's not their strength, but both are good shooters which requires some defensive attention while the other is working. And they both have high BBIQ and good feel for the game. Hou will be able to have one of them on the court at all times, so they should be able to buoy bench units and such. To be clear, I don't see this move as a game-changer, but I'm more optimistic this could get Houston to the next level if they fill in some of the defensive gaps on the roster. 

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 4:45:30 PM UTC-7, Reed Darcey wrote:

[Reed Darcey]

Houston's stubbornness about never shooting from mid-range was a strength all season long until the playoffs when a disciplined, fundamentally sound Spurs team was able to formulate an effective game plan by clamping down the interior and perimeter, baiting Houston into taking shots in an unfamiliar territory: mid-range. Chris Paul has one of the most lethal mid-range games ever. Now San Antonio would be more reluctant to surrender that area of the floor. In addition to what you said about Paul's defensive upgrade on HOU and his ability to buoy bench units while Harden is off the floor, I think his mid-range game is immensely beneficial.  Mike D'Antoni and Daryl Morey just have to be willing to allow him to take those shots.