Basic TS% question

[rozenfeld.asaf]

Hi guys, I really enjoy this forum. I’m new here so sorry if this it too basic.

I understood TS% is an estimator that should give an indication for points scored per shot (considering 3pointers and FTs) by multiplying it by 2.

So if the league average TS% is now 53.62% (data is taken from Hollinger's site today) the average PPS estimated should be 1.072. However from checking this I feel like it’s way off on that. Since average TO ratio is 13.457, that means out of 100 possessions 86.543 end up with a FG or FT.

Average OffRtg is 102.683, which means that from 86.543 possessions that end up with a FG or FT 102.683 points are produced- making it 1.19 points per non-TO possession which should account for an average TS% of 59.5.
Yet the stated average TS% given the formula PTS/[2*(FGA + 0.44 * FTA)] is 53.62.

Is this estimator way off and should be changed or am I totally missing something here?

 

Thanks a lot,

Asaf

[Harrison Brown]

I don't think you're accounting for offensive rebounds, right?

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[rozenfeld.asaf]

Nop. That would just count as a new possession wouldn't it?

[Evan Zamir]

No, offensive rebounds don’t count as new possessions. That was his point.

-evan

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