Re: Buffet R13 Serial Number Chart
Sibyl Piccuillo
This is a hill I'm willing to die on, and it's also a place where I have a secret weapon: a well-executed computer simulation that solves this problem once and for all has an opportunity to unleash an 0.1% improvement in GDP. Consider all that time lost in lines! So I went to business. A few hours later (a bit too many hours!) I built a simulation framework for buffet lines.
One maybe not obvious observation from the previous system is that the possibility of going backwards (to the left) causes these blockages. If we made it impossible to go backwards, then people would never go further right than their next food item. This would mean people getting the food are never blocked from going to their next item. This simple rule change turns out to increase the capacity of the buffet substantially, to somewhere around 1.0 arrivals per second (see full video here):
I varied the arrival rates by increments of 0.05, from 0.05 to 2.0. If we vary the arrival rate and look at the number of people in the system over time for a particular method, it looks something like this:
In the chart above, I grouped the arrival rates into slightly larger buckets so it's easier to follow. From both the charts above, we can see that the critical rate for this method seems to be around 0.8-1.0 arrivals per second. Below that, and everyone gets their food eventually. Above that, and the system turns into gridlock. From the cohort chart (the second one), you can see that less than 100% of the people that enter the system ever exit. Poor them!
In the days following his death, his followers have been streaming and buying his music in droves, and all that attention has helped the musician score his first No. 1 hits on the Billboard charts. Sadly, he never got to see the accomplishment, but the wins count toward his legacy nonetheless.
Impressively, Buffett doesn't just score one No. 1 hit this week. His name appears in the top spot on three Billboard charts. Before this frame, he had reached the summit on albums-focused tallies, but none of his singles had reached the peak position on any lists published by the music magazine that look only at tunes.
In addition to the Digital Song Sales chart, Billboard also publishes several weekly rankings that focus on the bestselling tracks in different genres. Since "Margaritaville" rules as the top-selling tune of any style, it stands to reason that it's also the bestseller in its genre-specific rosters.
I am a music journalist based in New York City. My byline has appeared in The Huffington Post, Billboard, Mashable, Noisey, The Hollywood Reporter, MTV, Fuse, and dozens of other magazines and blogs around the world. I love following charts and the biggest and most successful names in the industry, and I'm always interested in highlighting incredible feats and discovering what's next.
GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is for a quarter that ended several months ago. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes GDPNow, an estimate of the current quarter's GDP growth rate, which can be used to calculate an estimate for the current month's (annualized) GDP value of $27.65 trillion dollars. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.
GDP is widely reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and not controversial, however there are a few snags that can change a model result. First is that GDP changes over time; the BEA adjusts GDP numbers (including previously reported "actuals") as additional detail comes in, often several quarters after the fact. This is routine and the adjustments are often immaterial to a model as blunt as the Buffett Indicator, but these alterations could be missed.
Second, and more likely, is the consideration that GDP is announced well in arrears. Initial results of prior quarter GDP are not available until several months into the following quarter. If using only this GDP data from the BEA to find the Buffett Indicator, we would be comparing today's market value to a GDP number 3-6 months ago! This might be fine in normal environments where GDP growth is fairly consistent, but it is nonsensical during times of GDP volatility. As such, our model uses estimates of current GDP, to be compared to current market value.
In this chart, the "Historical Trend Line" is an exponential regression line illustrating the historic growth rate of the Buffett Indicator ratio. Given the high volatility of the stock market value, the ratio tends to deviate from the trend line quite materially, sometimes for decades at a time.
The above chart shows monthly datapoints from 1950 to 2017, mapping the relative value of the Buffett Indicator model (x-axis) against the subsequent 5 year S&P500 returns (y-axis). The colored, dashed vertical lines indicate the same under/overvaluation bands as shown in previous models (i.e., values to the right of the dark red line indicate datapoints that were > 2 standard deviations above the trend line, indicating the market was 'Strongly Overvalued').
Overall, the chart above shows that there is a slight correlation between Buffett Indicator valuation ranking and subsequent S&P500 returns. The highest stock market returns tend to come after periods of undervaluation (left side of the chart). Periods of relative overvaluation (right side of the chart), particularly at the extreme, tend to be followed by lower S&P500 returns five years later.
I have been coming to the chart house since I was a little girl. I absolutely love the atmosphere of the restaurant. The bar area is a really nice place for lunch. The food is always fantastic! I will continue coming back there and highly recommend it...
Guests should know where the buffet table starts and ends keep all plates on one end of the table. This will prevent a traffic jam. If you have a big group, pull the table away from the wall so that people can go along either side of the table.
The golden ratio for buffets is roughly 80% cold food and 20% hot. Cold food is easier to refill and control temperature-wise, which makes this approach both more practical and safer from a safe food handling standpoint.
Hungry people tend to pile on foods like salads, bread, and appetizers when they first get in line at a buffet. As they move down the line, their plates fill up, leaving less room for the steaks and salmon dishes at the end. Another great psychological tactic for event portion control, this tip will save you from having to stock up on your pricier dishes.
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