Press Release: Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners in Bihar Assembly Elections, 2020

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Dec 8, 2020, 1:00:39 AM12/8/20

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Press Release 8th December,2020

Dear Friends,

Association for Democratic Reforms and Bihar Election Watch (BEW) have analysed the vote share for the all 243 constituencies in the Bihar Assembly Elections, 2020. The voter’s turnout for the Bihar Assembly election 2020 was 58.7% whereas voter’s turnout in Bihar assembly elections 2015 was 56.9%.

For the complete report in Hindi and English, please click : https://adrindia.org/content/bihar-assembly-elections-2020-analysis-vote-share-margin-victory-and-representativeness

Summary and Highlights

Voter Turnout

Figure: Voter's Turnout in Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 and 2020

Vote Share of Winners

The winners of the Bihar State Assembly elections, 2020 won by an average of 43 % of total votes polled. In the 2015 elections winners won by an average of 44% of total votes polled.

Figure: Vote Share Percentage of MLAs- Bihar: 2015 and 2020

38(16%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency
205(84%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.

Figure: No. of Winners- Vote Share

31(19%) out of 165 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.
32(16%) out of 196 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

Representativeness of Winners

All the winners of the Bihar State Assembly Elections, 2020 won with an average of 25.23% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 25.23% of the total electorate. In the Bihar State Assembly Elections, 2015 won by an average of 25.09% of the total registered votes.

Among the major Parties, out of 75 winners of RJD, 41(55%) have won less than 25% of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency. 18(24%) out of 74 winners from BJP, 26(60%) out of 43 winners from JD(U), 12(63%) out of 19 winners from INC, 3(25%) out of 12 winners from CPI(ML)(L) have won less than 25 % of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency.

Margin of Victory

3 winners have won with margin of victory of less than 200 votes.
2 winners have won with more than 30% of margin of victory.

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory

58 out of 165 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.
Among these 58 winners, 8 winners have won with more than 20% margin of victory.
Among these, Kiran Devi (RJD) from Sandesh constituency won with 33% margin of victory.

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory

42 out of 196 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.
Among these 42 winners, 5 winners have won with more than 20 % margin of victory.
Among these, Ram Surat Kumar (BJP) from Aurai constituency won with 28% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners

Among the 243 winners, 26 are women.
All of them won with 27% and above of vote share in their constituencies.
Among the women winners, Kavita Devi (BJP) from Korha Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 53.31% in her constituency. She has won with 38.12% representativeness and 14.75% of margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners

Out of total 96 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 30 % of vote share in their respective constituency. 12(13%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
23(24%) re-elected winners have won with less than 5% of margin of victory whereas 5 have won with more than 25% of margin of victory.

NOTA

The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 4,21,37,619 votes polled in Bihar Assembly, 2020, 7,06,252 (1.68%) were polled for NOTA. Out of 3,81,20,124 votes polled in Bihar Assembly, 2015, 9,47,279 (2.48%) were polled for NOTA.