Press Release: Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners in Jharkhand Assembly Elections, 2024

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Dec 11, 2024, 3:10:16 AM12/11/24

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Press Release

Date: December 11, 2024

Dear Friends,

Association for Democratic Reforms and Jharkhand Election Watch have analysed the vote share for all 81 constituencies in the Jharkhand Assembly Elections, 2024. The voter’s turnout for the Jharkhand Assembly was 68% whereas voter’s turnout in 2019 assembly elections was 65%.

The Jharkhand Assembly election result was declared on 23^rd November 2024.

For the complete reports in English and Hindi, please go to:https://adrindia.org/content/Analysis-of-Vote-Share-and-Margin-of-Victory-of-Winners-Jharkhand-Assembly-2024

Summary and Highlights

Voter Turnout

Figure: Comparative Analysis – Voters’ Turnout

Vote Share of Winners:

The winners of the Jharkhand State Assembly elections 2024, won with an average of 47% of total votes polled. In the 2019 elections, winners won with an average of 43% of total votes polled.

Figure: Vote share percentage of winners – Jharkhand Assembly: 2019 and 2024

37(46%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency.

44(54%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.

19(43%) out of 44 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

18 (49%) out of 37 winners with clean backgrounds have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

31(43%) out of 72 crorepati winners analysed have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

6(67%) out of 9 non-crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

Representativeness of Winners:

All the winners of the Jharkhand State Assembly Elections, 2024 won with an average of 32% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 32% of the total electorate.

Margin of Victory:

5 winners have won with a margin of victory of less than 1000 votes.

3 winners have won with more than 30% margin of victory.

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:

22 out of 44 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.

Among these 22 winners, 3 winners have won with more than 20% margin of victory.

Among these, Stephen Marandi (JMM) from Maheshpur constituency won with 31.7% margin of victory.

Winners with clean background and their Margin of Victory:

20 out of 37 winners with clean backgrounds have won against a runner up with declared criminal cases.

Among these 20 winners, 4 winners have won with more than 25% margin of victory.

Among these, Niral Purty (JMM) from Majhgaon constituency won with 38.6% margin of victory.

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

21 out of 72 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.

Among these 21 winners, 3 winners have won with more than 25% margin of victory.

Among these, Deepak Birua (JMM) from Chaibasa constituency won with 39.2% margin of victory.

Non-crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

7 out of 9 non-crorepati winners have won against crorepati runners up.

Among these 7 winners, 1 winner Ram Surya Munda (JMM) from Khunti constituency won with 26.3% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners:

Among the 81 winners, 12 are women.

All of them won with 30% and above of vote share in their constituencies.

Among the women winners, Purnima Sahu (BJP) from Jamshedpur East constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 54.4% in her constituency. She has won with 31.9% representativeness and 21.8% margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners:

Out of total 41 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 30% of vote share in their respective constituency. 18(44%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.

18(44%) re-elected winners have won with less than 10% margin of victory whereas 3 have won with more than 30% margin of victory.

NOTA:

The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 1,78,46,283 votes polled in 2024 Jharkhand Assembly Elections, 2,26,431 (1.27%) were polled for NOTA.