Press Release: Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners in Assam Assembly Elections, 2021

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Jun 15, 2021, 2:50:03 AM6/15/21
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                                                                  Press Release                                                                                          
 15th June, 2021


Dear Friends,

Association for Democratic Reforms and Assam Election Watch (AEW) have analysed the vote share for the all 126 constituencies in the Assam Assembly Elections, 2021. The voter’s turnout for the Assam Assembly election 2021 was 82.24% whereas voter’s turnout in Assam assembly elections 2016 was 84.67%.

Summary and Highlights

Voter Turnout

image.png
Figure: Voter's Turnout in Assam Assembly Elections 2016 and 2021


Vote Share of Winner

  • The winners of the Assam State Assembly elections, 2021 won by an average of 54.08 % of total votes polled. In the 2016 elections winners won by an average of 47.32 % of total votes polled.
image.png
Figure: Vote Share Percentage of Winners - Assam: 2016 and 2021
  • 86(68%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency.
  • 40(32%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.
image.png
                        Figure: No. of Winners- Vote Share
  • 23(68%) out of 34 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.  
  • 58(68%) out of 85 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

Representativeness of Winners
  • All the winners of the Assam State Assembly Elections, 2021 won with an average of 44.47% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent, on average, 44.47% of the total electorate. In the Assam State Assembly Elections, 2016 won by an average of 40.07% of the total registered votes.
  • Among the major Parties, out of 60 winners of BJP, 19(32%) have won less than 40% of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency. 7(24%) out of 29 winners from INC; 2(13%) out of 16 winners from AIUDF and 4(44%) out of 9 winners from AGP have won less than 40% of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency.
image.png
Figure – Comparative Analysis- Representativeness of Winners

Margin of Victory
  • 2 winners have won with a margin of victory of less than 1000 votes.
  • 3 winners have won with more than 60% of margin of victory.

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:
  • 27 out of 34 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.
  • Among these 27 winners, 2 winners have won with more than 60% margin of victory.  
  • Wazed Ali Choudhury (INC) from Salmara South constituency won with 77.85% margin of victory.  

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:
  • 33 out of 85 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.
  •  Among these 33 winners, 4 winners have won with more than 50 % margin of victory.
  • Among these, Wazed Ali Choudhury (INC) from Salmara South constituency won with 77.85% margin of victory.  

Performance of Women Winners
  • Among the 126 winners, 6 are women.
  • All of them won with 40% and above of vote share in their constituencies.
  • Among the women winners, Sibamoni Bora (INC) from Batadroba Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 60.02% in her constituency. She has won with 50.78% representativeness and 23.37% margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners
  • Out of total 67 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 40% of vote share in their respective constituencies. 46(69%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
  • 19(28%) re-elected winners have won with less than 10% of margin of victory whereas 6 have won with more than 50% of margin of victory.

NOTA
  • The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 1,92,22,600 votes polled in Assam Assembly, 2021, 2,19,578 (1.14%) were polled for NOTA.


Contact Details

Assam Election Watch

 

Mr. Tasaduk Ariful Hussain

State Co-ordinator

+91 94350-54775                 

arif...@gmail.com 

 

 

National Election Watch/Association for Democratic Reforms

 

Media and Journalist Helpline

 

+91 80103 94248

Email: a...@adrindia.org

Maj.Gen. Anil Verma (Retd)

Head

National Election Watch,

Association for Democratic Reforms

011 4165 4200,

+91 88264 79910

a...@adrIndia.org,

anil...@adrindia.org

Prof Jagdeep Chhokar

IIM Ahmedabad (Retd.)

Founder Member,

National Election Watch, Association for Democratic

Reforms

+91 99996 20944

jchh...@gmail.com

Prof Trilochan Sastry

IIM Bangalore

Founder Member,

National Election Watch,

Association for Democratic Reforms

+91 94483 53285

tsa...@gmail.com



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