Press Release: Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners in Odisha Assembly Elections, 2024

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Press Release

Date: July 22, 2024

Dear Friends,

Association for Democratic Reforms and Odisha Election Watch have analysed the vote share for all 147 constituencies in the Odisha Assembly Elections, 2024. The voter’s turnout for the Odisha Assembly was 76% whereas voter’s turnout in 2019 assembly elections was 73%.

The Odisha Assembly election result was declared on 4th June 2024.

For the complete reports in English and Hindi, please go to: https://adrindia.org/content/analysis-vote-share-and-margin-victory-and-representativeness-winners-odisha-assembly

Summary and Highlights

Voter Turnout

Figure: Comparative Analysis – Voters’ Turnout

Vote Share of Winners

The winners of the Odisha State Assembly elections, 2024 won by an average of 46 % of total votes polled. In the 2019 elections winners also won by an average of 46% of total votes polled.

Figure: Vote Share Percentage of Winners – Odisha: 2019 and 2024

44(30%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency.

103(70%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.

Figure: No. of Winners- Vote Share

30(35%) out of 85 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.
14 (23%) out of 62 winners with clean backgrounds have won with a vote share of 50% and above.
29(27%) out of 107 crorepati winners analysed have won with a vote share of 50% and above
15(38%) out of 40 non-crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

Representativeness of Winners

All the winners of the Odisha State Assembly Elections, 2024 won with an average of 35% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 35% of the total electorate. In the Odisha State Assembly Elections, 2019 also, winners won by an average of 33% of the total registered votes.

Figure – Comparative Analysis- Representativeness of Winners

Margin of Victory

5 winners have won with a margin of victory of less than 1000 votes.
2 winners have won with more than 25% margin of victory.

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:

56 out of 85 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.
Among these 56 winners, 4 winners have won with more than 20% margin of victory.
Among these, Biswa Ranjan Mallick (BJD) from Bari constituency won with 32% margin of victory.

Winners with clean background and their Margin of Victory:

33 out of 62 winners with clean backgrounds have won against a runner up with declared criminal cases.
Among these 33 winners, 1 winner has won with more than 25% margin of victory.
He is, Pradip Kumar Sahu (BJD) from Begunia constituency won with 30.2% margin of victory.

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

18 out of 107 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.
Among these 18 winners, 5 winners have won with more than 10% margin of victory.
Among these, Purna Chandra Sethy (BJP) from Khalikote constituency won with 15.47% margin of victory.

Non-crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

33 out of 40 non-crorepati winners have won against crorepati runners up.
Among these 33 winners, 2 winners have won with more than 20% margin of victory.
Among these, Braja Kishore Pradhan (BJD) from Talcher constituency won with 25% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners

Among the 147 winners, 11 are women.
All of them won with 35% and above of vote share in their constituencies.
Among the women winners, Surama Padhy (BJP) from Ranpur Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 52.3% in her constituency. She has won with 39.5% representativeness and 10% margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners

Out of total 43 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 30% of vote share in their respective constituencies. 4(9%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
30(70%) re-elected winners have won with less than 10% margin of victory whereas 2 have won with more than 20% margin of victory.

NOTA

The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 2,51,15,924 votes polled in Odisha Assembly Elections, 2024, 2,57,355 (1.02%) were polled for NOTA.

Contact Details

Odisha Election Watch

Ranjan Kumar Mohanty

State Coordinator
+91-0674 2382175
+91-0674 2352278
+91-94370-13723
pe...@hotmail.com,

odishaele...@gmail.com

Association for Democratic Reforms/National Election Watch

Media and Journalist Helpline

+91 80103 94248

Email: a...@adrindia.org

Maj.Gen. Anil Verma (Retd)

Head

Association for Democratic Reforms,