Press Release: Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners in Gujarat Assembly Elections, 2022

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Dec 28, 2022, 3:30:14 AM12/28/22
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                  Press Release                                                                                          
 28th December, 2022


Dear Friends,

Association for Democratic Reforms and Gujarat Election Watch have analysed the vote share for the all 182 constituencies in the Gujarat Assembly Elections, 2022. The voter’s turnout for the Gujarat Assembly election 2022 was 65% whereas voter’s turnout in Gujarat assembly elections 2017 was 69%


Summary and Highlights

Voter Turnout

image.png

Figure: Voter's Turnout in Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017 and 2022

Vote Share of Winners

The winners of the Gujarat State Assembly elections, 2022 won by an average of 53.48 % of total votes polled. In the 2017 elections winners won by an average of 52.88 % of total votes polled.

image.png

Figure: Vote Share Percentage of Winners – Gujarat: 2017 and 2022


  • 108(59%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency.
  • 74(41%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.
image.png
Figure: No. of Winners- Vote Share
  • 23(57.5%) out of 40 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.  
  • 91(60%) out of 151 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.
Representativeness of Winners
  • All the winners of the Gujarat State Assembly Elections, 2022 won with an average of 35% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 35% of the total electorate. In the Gujarat State Assembly Elections, 2017 the winners won with an average of 36% of the total registered votes.
  • Among the major Parties, out of 156 winners of BJP, 33(21%) have won less than 30% of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency. 6(35%) out of 17 winners from INC; 3(60%) out of 5 winners from AAP; 1(100%) winner from SP; 1(33%) out of 3 Independent winners have won with less than 30 % of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency.
image.png
Figure – Comparative Analysis- Representativeness of Winners
Margin of Victory
  • 2 winners have won with a margin of victory of less than 1000 votes.
  • 8 winners have won with more than 60% margin of victory. 

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:
  • 28 out of 40 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.
  • Among these 28 winners, 4 winners have won with more than 35% margin of victory.  
  • Amit Shah (BJP) from Ellisbridge Constituency won with 71% margin of victory.   

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:
  • 38 out of 151 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.
  • Among these 38 winners, 4 winners have won with more than 50% margin of victory.
  • Among these, Purnesh Modi (BJP) from Surat West constituency won with 64% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners:
  • Among the 182 winners, 15 are women.
  • Among these 15 women winners, 3 women winners have won with more than 50% margin of victory.
  • Among the women winners, Manisha Vakil (BJP) from Vadodara City (SC) Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 71% in her constituency and 53% margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners:
  • Out of total 74 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 30% of vote share in their respective constituencies. 46(62%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
  • 15(20%) re-elected winners have won with less than 10% margin of victory whereas 7 have won with more than 50% margin of victory.

NOTA:
  • The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 3, 18, 27,563 votes polled In Gujarat Assembly, 2022, 5, 01,202 (1.57%) were polled for NOTA.

Contact Details

Gujarat Election Watch

 

Ms Pankti Jog

State Coordinator
+91-9909006791

magpg...@gmail.com

 

 

Association for Democratic Reforms/National Election Watch

 

Media and Journalist Helpline

 

+91 80103 94248

Email: a...@adrindia.org

Maj.Gen. Anil Verma (Retd)

Head

Association for Democratic Reforms,

National Election Watch

011 4165 4200,

+91 88264 79910

a...@adrindia.org,

anil...@adrindia.org

Prof Jagdeep Chhokar

IIM Ahmedabad (Retd.)

Founder Member,

Association for Democratic Reforms,

National Election Watch

jchh...@gmail.com

Prof Trilochan Sastry

IIM Bangalore

Founder Member,

Association for Democratic Reforms,

National Election Watch

+91 94483 53285

tsa...@gmail.com

 

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