Press Release: Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners in Lok Sabha Elections, 2024

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Jul 4, 2024, 2:37:05 AM7/4/24

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Press Release

Date: July 4, 2024

Dear Friends,

Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) and National Election Watch (NEW) have analysed the vote share for the 542 out of 543 constituencies in the Lok Sabha Elections, 2024, one constituency data has been not analysed as one candidate has been elected unopposed from Surat constituency of Gujarat. The voter’s turnout for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 was 66.12% whereas voter’s turnout in Lok Sabha elections 2019 was 67.35%.

For the complete reports in English and Hindi, please go to: https://adrindia.org/content/analysis-vote-share-margin-victory-and-representativeness-winners-lok-sabha-elections-2024

Summary and Highlights

Voter Turnout

Figure: Comparative Analysis – Voters’ Turnout

Vote Share of Winners

The winners of the Lok Sabha elections, 2024 won by an average of 50.58 % of total votes polled. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections winners won by an average of 52.65% of total votes polled.

Figure: Vote Share Percentage of Winners- Lok Sabha 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024

279(51%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency.

263(49%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.

Figure: No. of Winners- Vote Share

Out of 239 winners of BJP, 75(31%) won with less than 50 % of total votes polled in their constituencies. 57(58%) out of 99 winners from INC, 32(86%) out of 37 winners from SP, 21(72%) out of 29 winners from AITC and 14(64%) out of 22 winners from DMK have won with less than 50% of total votes polled in their constituency.

106(42%) out of 251 winners analysed with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

173(59%) out of 291 winners with clean backgrounds have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

262(52%) out of 503 crorepati winners analysed have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

17(44%) out of 39 non- crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.

Representativeness of Winners

All the winners of the Lok Sabha Elections, 2024 won with an average of 33.44% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 33.44% of the total electorate. In the Lok Sabha Elections, 2019 also, winners won by an average of 35.46% of the total registered votes.

Figure – Comparative Analysis- Representativeness of Winners

Margin of Victory

5 winners have won with a margin of victory of less than 2000 votes.

5 winners have won with more than 50% of margin of victory.

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:

112 out of 251 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.

Among these 112 winners, 7 winners have won with more than 30% margin of victory.

Among these, Shivraj Singh Chouhan (BJP) from Vidisha constituency in Madhya Pradesh won with 56.43 % margin of victory.

Winners with clean background and their Margin of Victory:

132 out of 291 winners with clean backgrounds have won against a runner up with declared criminal cases.

Among these 132 winners, 10 winners have won with more than 30% margin of victory.

Among these, Rakibul Hussain (INC) from Dhubri constituency won with a 41.26% margin of victory.

Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

54 out of 503 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.

Among these 54 winners, 5 winners have won with more than 30 % margin of victory.

Among these, Shankar Lalwani (BJP) from Indore constituency in Madhya Pradesh won with 64.54% margin of victory.

Non-crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

31 out of 39 non-crorepati winners have won against crorepati runners up.

Among these 31 winners, 2 winners have won with more than 30% margin of victory.

Among these, Bharatbhai Manubhai Sutariya (BJP) from Amreli constituency won with 36.63% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners:

Among the 542 winners, 74 are women.

Among the women winners, Kriti Devi Debbarman (BJP) from Tripura East Constituency in Tripura has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 68.54 % in her constituency and 42.92% margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners:

Out of total 214 re-elected winners 101(47%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
92 re-elected winners have won with less than 10% of margin of victory whereas 3 have won with more than 50% of margin of victory.

NOTA:

The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 64,53,63,445 votes polled in Lok Sabha, 2024, 63,72,220 (0.99%) were polled for NOTA. Out of 61,31,33,300 votes polled in Lok Sabha, 2019, 65,14,558 (1.06%) were polled for NOTA. Out of 50,54,35,758 votes polled in Lok Sabha, 2014, 56,62,388 (1.12%) were polled for NOTA.