Press Release: Analysis of Vote Share, Margin of Victory and Representativeness of Winners in Kerala Assembly Elections, 2021

25 views
Skip to first unread message

ADR India

unread,
May 20, 2021, 1:38:53 AM5/20/21
to national-el...@googlegroups.com, national...@googlegroups.com
                                                                                   Press Release                                                                                          
 20th May, 2021


Dear Friends,

Association for Democratic Reforms and Kerala Election Watch (KEW) have analysed the vote share for the all 140 constituencies in the Kerala Assembly Elections, 2021. The voter’s turnout for the Kerala Assembly election 2021 was 77.94% whereas voter’s turnout in Kerala Assembly Elections 2016 was 77.53%.


Summary and Highlights

Voter Turnout

image.png
Figure: Voter's Turnout in Kerala Assembly Elections 2016 and 2021

Vote Share of Winner

The winners of the Kerala State Assembly elections, 2021 won by an average of 47.98 % of total votes polled. In the 2016 elections winners won by an average of 46.76 % of total votes polled.

image.png
Figure: Vote Share Percentage of Winners - Kerala: 2016 and 2021
  • 39(28%) winners won with 50% and above of the total votes polled in their constituency.
  • 101(72%) winners won with less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.
image.png
                        Figure: No. of Winners- Vote Share
  • 32(32%) out of 99 winners with declared criminal cases have won with a vote share of 50% and above.  
  • 21(27%) out of 77 crorepati winners have won with a vote share of 50% and above.
Representativeness of Winners
  • All the winners of the Kerala State Assembly Elections, 2021 won with an average of 37.40% of the total registered voters. This implies that the winners represent on an average, 37.40% of the total electorate. In the Kerala State Assembly Elections, 2016 won by an average of 36.26% of the total registered votes.
  • Among the major Parties, Out of 62 winners of CPI(M), 13(21%) have won less than 35% of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency. 5(29%) out of 17 winners from CPI; 8(38%) out of 21 winners from INC; 2(13%) out of 15 winners from IUML; 5(100%) out of 5 winners from Kerala Congress (M) have won less than 35 % of votes of the total registered voters in the constituency.

image.png
  Figure - Comparative Analysis- Representativeness of Winners
Margin of Victory
  • 2 winners have won with the margin of victory of less than 500 votes.
  • 5 winners have won with more than 30% of margin of victory. 

Winners with Declared Criminal Cases and their Margin of Victory:
  • 34 out of 99 winners with declared criminal cases have won against a runner up with a clean background.
  • Among these 34 winners, 2 winners have won with more than 20% margin of victory.
  • Among these, P S Supal (CPI) from Punalur constituency won with 25.34% margin of victory. 

 Crorepati Winners and their Margin of Victory:

  • 27 out of 77 crorepati winners have won against a non-crorepati runners up.
  • Among these 27 winners, 3 winners have won with more than 20% margin of victory.
  • Among these, K K Shailaja Teacher [CPI(M)] from Mattannur constituency won with 39.3% margin of victory.

Performance of Women Winners

  • Among the 140 winners, 11 are women.
  • All of them won with 40% and above of vote share in their constituencies.
  • Among the women winners, K K Shailaja Teacher [CPI(M)] from Mattannur Constituency has won with the highest vote share, i.e. 61.97% in her constituency. She has won with 51.66% representativeness and 39.3% of margin of victory.

Performance of Re-elected Winners

  • Out of total 71 re-elected winners, none have won with less than 30% of vote share in their respective constituency. 20(28%) have won with more than 50% of vote share.
  • 33(46%) re-elected winners have won with less than 10% of margin of victory whereas 2 have won with more than 30% of margin of victory.

NOTA

  • The NOTA button instated by the ECI in 2013 gave the voters an option of rejecting all the candidates in their constituency. Out of 2, 08, 33,801 votes polled in Kerala Assembly, 2021, 97,695 (0.47%) were polled for NOTA.

Contact Details

  

Kerala Election Watch /National Election Watch/Association for Democratic Reforms

 

Media and Journalist Helpline

 

+91 80103 94248

Email: a...@adrindia.org

Maj.Gen. Anil Verma (Retd)

Head

National Election Watch,

Association for Democratic Reforms

011 4165 4200,

+91 88264 79910

a...@adrIndia.org,

anil...@adrindia.org

Prof Jagdeep Chhokar

IIM Ahmedabad (Retd.)

Founder Member,

National Election Watch, Association for Democratic

Reforms

+91 99996 20944

jchh...@gmail.com

Prof Trilochan Sastry

IIM Bangalore

Founder Member,

National Election Watch,

Association for Democratic Reforms

+91 94483 53285

tsa...@gmail.com


--
Association for Democratic Reforms

T-95, C.L. House, 2nd Floor,
(Near Gulmohar Commercial Complex)
Gautam Nagar
New Delhi-110 049

Mob No: +91 8010394248 
Fax No.: 011 4609 4248


Listen to Our Podcast on      
Support Us By Donating Here

Websites:   adrindia.org

    
Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages