For hard numbers, there's R.W. Bulliet, Conversion to Islam in the Medieval Period (1980?), which is based on the statistical analysis of Muslim biographical dictionaries. I think his conclusions must be off by a significant factor, however. His data is strictly urban, and yet more than 90% of the people would have lived in villages, and it seems likely that both arabization and islamization would have taken place at a much slower rate in the countryside. At any rate, I'd think it safe to cut his rates by a factor of ten.
If so, in Syro-Palestine Christians may have still been a majority into the Crusade period, perhaps even into the Mongol period. But who knows....
As for hard numbers, there have also been some studies based on Ottoman tax records. If I remember, most dealt with fairly limit geographical regions. I'll see if I can dig the references up.
There are also some anecdotal studies, mostly on the Coptic church.
Is there a particular region of interest?
Best,
John
_________________________________
John Lamoreaux
Department of Religious Studies
Southern Methodist University
www.johnlamoreaux.org
christianarabic.org
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The other methodological problem with Bulliet's analysis is that his data is drawn exclusively from Muslim biographical dictionaries, which therefore presumes a 100% conversion rate by the date of the dictionary he uses, and because the people in there are generally from the `ulama, it pushes the conversion rate even earlier. It was a very clever and provocative study, but it's hard to see how to get a better control on the numbers over the real population base.
I don't know if there is anything in J.-M. Fiey, "Chrétiens syriaques sous les Abbassides surtout à Bagdad, 749-1258" (1980), but that would be one place to check, which covers most of the period that interests you.
Best,
Thomas.
ZABOROWSKI, JASON R., The Coptic Martyrdom of John of Phanijōit : assimilation and conversion to Islam in thirteenth-century Egypt (Leiden ; Boston: Brill, 2005)
SHABAN, M, 'Conversion to Early Islam', Conversion to Islam. Ed. Nehemia Levtsion. New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, 1979. 24-29.
REININK, G.J., 'Following the Doctrine of the Demons. Early Christian Fear of Conversion to Islam', J.N.Bremmer, W.J.van Bekkum, A.L.Molendijk (eds), Cultures of Conversion (Groningen Studies in Cultural Change 18; Louvain, 2005), 127-38.
MENAGE, V.L, 'The Islamization of Anatolia', Conversion to Islam. Ed. Nehemia Levtsion. New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, 1979. 52-67.
LAPIDUS, I.M, 'The Conversion of Egypt to Islam', Israel Oriental Studies 2, (1972), 248-62.
FRANTZ-MURPHY, GLADYS, 'Conversion in early Islamic Egypt: the economic factor', Muslims and others in early Islamic society / edited by Robert Hoyland (The Formation of the Classical Islamic World, 18). Aldershot: Ashgate, 2004 pp. 323-329
BRETT, M., 'Population and Conversion to Islam in Egypt in the Mediaeval Period', Egypt and Syria in the Fatimid, Ayyubid and Mamluk Eras (Egypt and Syria in the Fatimid, Ayyubid and Mamluk Eras,, 2005), 1-32.
Hopefully, you'll find something useful.
Grigory Kessel
--- On Fri, 11/5/10, Sergey Minov <sergey...@mail.huji.ac.il> wrote: