World Energy Outlook 2013 Iea Pdf Download
Joseph Zyiuahndy
This Outlook assesses the evolving nature of energy security fifty years after the foundation of the IEA. It also examines what needs to happen at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai to keep the door open for the 1.5 C goal. And, as it does every year, the Outlook examines the implications of today's energy trends in key areas including investment, trade flows, electrification and energy access.
The latest World Energy Outlook offers the most comprehensive analysis of what this transformation of the energy sector might look like, thanks to its energy projections to 2040. It reviews the key opportunities and challenges ahead for renewable energy, the central pillar of the low- carbon energy transition, as well as the critical role for energy efficiency.
This year, WEO-2016 also devotes a special chapter to the critical interplay between water and energy, with an emphasis on the stress points that arise as the linkages between these two sectors intensify.
The World Energy Transitions Outlook outlines a pathway for the world to achieve the Paris Agreement goals and halt the pace of climate change by transforming the global energy landscape. This report presents options to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C and bring CO2 emissions to net zero by 2050, offering high-level insights on technology choices, investment needs, policy framework and the socio-economic impacts of achieving a sustainable, resilient and inclusive energy future.
Energy transition investment will have to increase by 30% over planned investment to a total of USD 131 trillion between now and 2050, yet will yield a cumulative payback of at least USD 61 trillion by 2050. Sharp adjustments in capital flows and a reorientation of investments are necessary to align energy with a positive economic and environmental trajectory.
A transformed energy sector will have 122 million jobs in 2050, renewable energy jobs alone will account for more than a third. A holistic global policy framework is needed to bring countries together to commit to a just transition that leaves no one behind and strengthens the international flow of finance, capacity and technologies.
Those circumstances are the unprecedented fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, which remains highly uncertain as to its depth and duration. The crisis is expected to cause a dramatic decline in global energy demand in 2020, with fossil fuels taking the biggest hit.
Taken together, the rapid rise of renewable energy and the structural decline for coal help keep a lid on global CO2 emissions, the outlook suggests. But steady demand for oil and rising gas use mean CO2 only flattens off, rather than declining rapidly as required to meet global climate goals.
These competing trends are shown in the chart, below, which tracks primary energy demand for each fuel under the IEA STEPS, with solid lines. Overall, renewables meet three-fifths of the increase in energy demand by 2040, while accounting for another two-fifths of the total. Smaller increases for oil and nuclear are enough to offset the decline in coal energy use.
By 2040, although oil and gas would remain the first and second-largest sources of primary energy, there would have been declines in the use of all fossil fuels. Coal would have dropped by two-thirds, oil by a third and gas by 12%, relative to 2019 levels.
The IEA already publishes lengthy annexes, with detailed information on the pathway for different energy sources and CO2 emissions from each sector, in a range of key economies around the world, under each of its main scenarios. (This year these are the STEPS and SDS.)
The power sector contributes the largest portion of the savings needed over the next decade (orange wedges in the chart, above). But there are also important contributions from energy end-use (yellow), such as transport and industry, as well as from individual behaviour change (blue), explored in more detail in the next section.
Due to wider changes in the energy mix in NZE2050, the emissions impact of widespread home working is small when compared to the current situation, shown in the left-hand column, or STEPS in 2030, shown in the middle column.
While the report focuses on CO2 emissions from the energy system, it also alludes to the high levels of methane and nitrous oxide resulting from global agriculture and livestock farming in particular.
With commentary on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the RFF Global Energy Outlook provides a review of global energy market projections by leading international energy organizations and corporations.
The energy transition in the power sector is well under way and global power sector emissions have most likely peaked in 2022. In order to stay on track for net zero, emissions in all sectors need to peak now and start declining fast.
Our modelling shows that, while a pathway that limits global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 looks increasingly out of reach, there are still plausible pathways to stay within 1.77C of warming in our Net Zero Scenario. Even then, a revolution will be needed in the energy sector to increase momentum and accelerate emissions reductions.
Final energy use in the Net Zero Scenario has very different profiles for each sector. This is due to several factors, but first among them is electrification of transport, industrial processes and heat.
Getting to net zero is a multi-trillion investment opportunity, but to stay on track will require a shift away from fossil-fuel investment. To stay on track in the Net Zero Scenario, this means that for every dollar invested in fossil energy supply, nearly five are invested into low-carbon supply through 2050.
BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our expert coverage assesses pathways for the power, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition. We help commodity trading, corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities.
Then we forecast energy demand across 15 sectors and match the demand for energy services with about 20 types of energy, considering how technology, government policies, and other factors may evolve. We forecast oil and natural gas production from key producing countries/regions, and to estimate energy-related CO2 emissions, we look at historical and projected energy demand and apply an emissions factor for each type.
The annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) is the International Energy Agency's (IEA) flagship publication on global energy projections and analysis.[1] It contains medium to long-term energy market projections, extensive statistics, analysis and advice for both governments and the energy business regarding energy security, environmental protection and economic development. The first WEO was published in 1977 and it has been an annual publication since 1998.[1]
Since 1993, the IEA has provided medium- to long-term energy projections using a continually-evolving set of modelling tools. In 2021, the IEA adopted the Global Energy and Climate Model to develop the world's first comprehensive study of how to transition to an energy system at net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This model is now the principle tool used to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region long-term scenarios for the World Energy Outlook and other IEA publications.[1][2]
Based on the New Policies Scenario, the central model used by the OECD's International Energy Agency, in Part A entitled Global energy demands, on the emerging global energy landscape, over the period to 2035, global energy demand would increase by more one-third with China, India and the Middle East accounting for 60 percent of that increase.[12]
By 2030, the IEA expects that half of all global car sales will be of electric vehicles. It is also projected that clean electricity generation could grow to 60% by the end of the decade. In the home heating market, sales of heat pumps are projected to overtake sales of fossil fuel boilers. Birol also highlighted the need to recognise the impacts of a shifting Chinese economy on global energy demand. All of these developments, he outlined, will have major implications for the usage of fossil fuels, which the IEA forecasts will peak by the end of the decade.
Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and fragile energy markets, the 2023 World Energy Outlook explores how structural changes in economies and in energy use are shifting the way that the world meets rising demand for energy.
This year's Outlook, which marks 50 years since the International Energy Agency was founded, assesses the evolving nature of energy security. It examines the implications of today's energy trends in key areas including investment, trade flows, electrification and energy access.
It also describes an energy system in 2030 in which clean technologies play a significantly greater role than today. However, even stronger measures would still be needed to keep alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.
Mr Gould joined the IEA in 2008 and is Chief Energy Economist since 2021. He provides strategic advice on energy economics across a wide range of IEA activities and analysis. Mr Gould is also Head of the Division for Energy Supply and Investment Outlooks, in which capacity he co-leads the World Energy Outlook, and oversees the Agency's work on investment and finance, including the World Energy Investment report.
Prior to joining the IEA, Mr Gould worked on European and Eurasian energy issues in Brussels and has ten years of experience in Eastern Europe, primarily in Ukraine. He graduated from Oxford University and has a post-graduate diploma from the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University.
Ms Corbeau is a Global Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. She has over 20 years of experience in the energy industry and is a recognized expert on natural gas. She is the author of many publications focusing on gas, LNG markets, Asia, China, India and Africa. She is also a member of the Gastech governing body.
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