Millions... no, thousands... no, hundreds... no... dozens of health freedom fighters??

[David Brown]

In a typical example of his humility and accuracy, Tim Bolen titles
his newsletter “Millions of health freedom fighters”. But, how many
people really visit bolenreport.com, especially in the seven months
since he started telling other bloggers that DDI would add them as
defendants in the suit v. Barrett merely , provoking the Evil Possum
into a campaign for the outright extinction of bolenreport.com. As it
happens, I have spent months following that very question,
particularly through siteanalytics.compete.com and
websiteworthchecker.com. Here is compete.com's data on visitors and
page views at bolenreport.com from late 2009 through the end of 2010:

9/09: 191
10/09: 2,633 3,494
11/09: 2,461 2,482
12/09: 3,048 3,673
01/10: 4,108 4,578
02/10: 236 236
3/10: 1,919 1,919
04/10: 184 184
05/10: 6,022 7,887
06/10: 5,321 7,450
07/10: 3,027 5,252
08/10: 3,707 6,612
09/10: 765 1,770
10/10: 1,667 1,667
11/10: 780 945
12/10: 482 482

The first thing this data reveals is that Bolen's ability to engage
the attention of his readers has ALWAYS been poor. In five out of
twelve months of 2010, the figures for visitors and views are the
same, meaning that EVERY recorded visitor made only ONE recorded
visitor. Only one out of fifteen months under consideration has a
count for views that is consistent with an AVERAGE of two views per
visitor. This is consistent with a LARGE majority of those who visit
bolenreport.com taking one look, concluding that Bolen is a clueless
nut, and never coming back.

Second, even Bolen's nominal readership is highly erratic and
generally poor. Out of a cumulative 28,218 unique visitors recorded
for 2010 (which is NOT allowing for one visitor being recorded in
several months), 18,077, or 64%, came in the four-month period from
May through August, and 6,022, more than a third, came in May alone.
Only one month, January, saw more than 2,000 visitors, and in five
months, visitors did not even exceed 1,000.

Third, Bolen's dwindling readership can be accounted for as a direct
result of his “reporting” on DDI v. Barrett, and resulting retaliation
by the Evil Possum. Comparison of Oct-Dec of 2009 and 2010 clearly
belie an annual “cycle” at work: The numbers from 2009 (setting aside
September) are consistent with a stable range of ca. 2,000-4,000
visitors per month, where numbers for the same period in 2010 show a
range of 500-2,000, or just 500-1,000 if October is excluded. That
would approximate a drop in readership of up to 75%. Even more
suggestive is the mid-year peak. In early 2010, recorded visitors
went into a striking slump, though January and March uphold a
prevailing trend of 2-4K. After the 15-month low in April, May saw
not just a recovery, but a peak of 6K, which was not greatly offset by
the figure of over 5300 in June. This two-month trend could plausibly
have been sustained as a readership of at least 4-6K, an increase of
50%. But THEN Bolen started “reporting” on DDI v. Barrett, threatening
other reporters in the process. In July, when he pulled perhaps his
single most asinine stunt by claiming that Barrett had already lost,
visitors dropped to 3K. Then in September, the bottom fell out from
under him, and Bolen's measured readership dropped to the point where
it is today.

So, what does the future hold for Bolen? It may be helpful to look at
my other major source of information. The first time I checked on
bolenreport.com at websiteworthchecker.com (unfortunately, I don't
recall the date), I got the following figures:
Daily Unique Visitors: 630
Daily Pageviews: 2,520
Daily Ad Earnings: $3.02
Estimated Worth: $3,704.2

Here are the numbers for Bolen's site over the last two months:
12/9:
Daily Unique Visitors: 250
Daily Pageviews: 600
Daily Ad Earnings: $0.6
Estimated Worth: $901

12/28:
Daily Unique Visitors: 200
Daily Pageviews: 480
Daily Ad Earnings: $0.48
Estimated Worth: $725.8

January 15:
Daily Unique Visitors: 150
Daily Pageviews: 360
Daily Ad Earnings: $0.43
Estimated Worth: $550.6

January 31:
Daily Unique Visitors: 150
Daily Pageviews: 450
Daily Ad Earnings: $0.54
Estimated Worth: $682

This bears out that Bolen has suffered catastrophic losses in
readership, traffic and the value of his site in JUST the time since
he started DDI v. Barrett: Something like 76% of his daily visitors,
83% of page views, and 82% of his site's revenue and estimated worth.
Is the January 31st data a sign that Bolen's fortunes are turning
around? Probably NOT. It is noteworthy that, from the 15th to the
31st, the count for unique visitors stayed the same. It was the count
for page views that went up. What this probably means is that, in
declining, the figures for unique visitors have shed large numbers of
casual passers-through, and finally reached a point where they reflect
a core of interested, readers. This could be on the order of 150, or
more, or, given the amount of attention Bolen attracts from those he
abuses, less. What is of most importance is that, with a count that
has remained stable even for two weeks, it will be reasonable to make
inferences and predictions from what happens next. If daily visitors
go up, particularly with a proportionate increase in views, it will be
consistent with growth in his “core” readership. If numbers resume
going down, it will be a sign that even Bolen's dedicated supporters
(and hecklers) are losing interest in what he has to say. Only time
will tell, and in any event, the suit in which Bolen has invested so
much of his energy and emotion should be settled well before another
month of numbers comes in.