Better website for fire info

[Joel Pomerantz]

Latest tools

I just learned (thanks Jon) of forestobservatory.com. It’s great. But it’s in beta, meaning not yet perfected. It’s useful to have wind and hotspot data on the same map as all the creeks, roads, structures, fire perimeters—and even multiple data layers about fuel loads. The color coding about surface fuels is backwards. Red is used for low fuel load on the surface. OOps. I sent a comment to them asking for it to be fixed.)

https://forestobservatory.com/

Latest news

The day’s temperatures are in the heat wave extremes. The fire is spreading very quickly. Dozens of people were injured and hospitalized at a remote lake 20 miles north (Mammoth Pool Reservoir), others safely evacuated by helicopter. The town of Shaver Lake is partly on fire, including what looks like the east part of “the Point” out into the lake where Brandy’s property was. I don’t know precisely where Johnnie’s (John Emerson) place is but I know Jem is there helping to evacuate him and his machinery with a large rented trailer. (If I understood right.)

Jemmy concurs that Musick Creek property is well prepared for this or any fire, and Randall and Jem point out that if the fire continues to spread into the portion of Jose Basin near the San Joaquin River, it is very likely to cross our nature preserve. Remember, fire is not necessarily unhealthy for a forest. It’s the human safety, lungs and homes that are the bigger issue. And pet, livestock safety; wild animals are often able to fend for themselves.

Jem asked if maybe I had a decimal point error when I said 35,000 to 40,000 acres. Nope. The fire is well over 40,000 acres now. In fact, it’s well over 100,000 acres now. Closer to 200,000. It is likely to become the largest fire all year, and is already about the size of the 2018 Camp Fire which destroyed so many homes. So far, this one, the Creek Fire, looks like more in the forest than in towns. I hope everyone out toward Huntington Lake and Mono Hot Springs got out in time. The road out is now encroached by fire (Hwy 168).

Joel

ALERT

There’s a large wild fire at Shaver Lake, very close to Musick Creek. 'Creek Fire' is the incident name. The winds are blowing it away from Musick Creek at the moment.

A lot of work has been done, both by our Musick Creek community and by the Shaver Lake community to improve the chances of a healthy fire rather than a devastating one as it inevitably passes through our land at some time in the not distant future. Just this past year, eastern areas within our property and western plus southeastern swaths outside our property line have been aggressively cleared (down to soil) for fire breaks. This was intended as a barrier to prevent fires from the west from encroaching on developed areas of Shaver, but also provides us some barrier areas if the wind changes and/or the fire spreads south.

On the attached images, red dots show heat points detected by satellite for less than 24 hours. Orange means less than 24 hours. The fire started just north across Hwy 168 from the lake. It has spread north and a bit west. As of mid evening Saturday, it was burning at the north end of Mt Stevenson. At the other end of Mt Stevenson, about four or five miles south of the fire area, is our Musick Creek nature preserve. I marked it in bright green. I drew selected roads (black) and creeks (blue) in the immediate area. See expanded image for regional context and full size of fire. (about 35k to 40k acres last I checked)

I’m keeping an eye on it and will update. Here are links I use:
https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/#/%3F/%3F/37.1697/-119.3868/11
https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/
(on that map, click on Creek Fire)

Joel

[Joel Pomerantz]

The wind reversed, as expected, and is now blowing the Creek Fire south. It reached and passed through Musick Creek Monday. Let’s assume that the flames did as we had planned when we put so much work into fuel clearing—hopped around from spot to spot leaving some untouched and others roasted. This is not a disaster for the forest. It will recover and change.

The people are in for a much harder time, Many people in our community are affected. Some may have lost homes or might lose them any day. As of this afternoon, at least 365 structures had burned. Some folks (including Dale and Randall) evacuated to Cordia, Masha & Jem's more than 14 miles west of where the fire perimeter had reached as of 2 a.m. Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, the fire area expanded by ana dditiuonal 21,000 acres—more than most large wildfires for the entire burn area, and this is the least expanding burn day for the Creek Fire. It’s still 0% contained but containment is anticipated to begin at the SW corner of the fire, near Auberry. 

I was up at 2 a.m. watching webcams from fire lookout apparatuses. My methods of calculating fire size last time I wrote were based on hotspots, as are the methods Google Maps uses, and also the forest observatory site below. That method is less reliable than the too-slowly-updated official perimeter lines. Hotspots seen by satellite include hot smoke. This fire has lots of hot smoke.

As a result of my assuming all hotspots are actual fire, I overestimated the fire size in previous emails, but it has now grown beyond the size I said, to more than 165,000 acres.

Yes, the fire has moved fast and far. It started a quarter mile from Sierra Camp in Big Creek. I was told this by organizers of the Sierra Co-op Camp which is held there annually for egalitarian and cooperative communities from all over. Then the fire swept north for more than a day and now south. At some point during the night, the official perimeter reached less than a mile from the ridge where Sweet’s Mill music & arts camp is. Sweet’s Mill stands half a chance because it’s over the ridge. If it hasn’t already burned.

The beloved Cressman’s on Hwy 168, in operation for more than 115 years, burned today. Here’s a photo. Until it was overcome by flames, firefighters were staging from there.

The rapid fire movement probably won’t endanger the evacuated folks down in the valley because there is too much of a gap between the forest and their place. Grass fires are easier to prevent from crossing roads. So the fire won’t get to the Davis-Bluestein comfy-but-smokey place, I believe.

Meanwhile, it seems to have already enveloped the homes above Musick at Dogwood Mountain, parts of Shaver Lake, parts of Ockenden, and most of Big Creek. Meadow Lakes and Alder Springs are right in the fire’s path but the (strong) winds are shifting repeatedly. Strong winds and smoke condition mean no aircraft are being used to fight the fire, yet.

The just-ended fiscal year began with a surge of fundraising and the purchase of the land. This new fiscal year is beginning with a challenging major shift. We can’t yet know the scope or the long term effects, some of which which be worth celebrating.

Here’s a photo on Sugar Hill, taken less than a month ago, of stacked cut lumber from our trees. It’ll be strange if any board is left unburned. We hadn’t yet built the lumber shed (or much else)!

Much love and wishes for good outcomes,

Joel

<Close of Musick Creek.jpg>

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