Varying Capex

[Avinasshini Seran]

Hi all,

As an additional detail to our intensive decarbonisation scenario, we wanted to subject the capital costs of dirty stoves to an additional tax (envisioned as a way the government would try to curb purchase of dirty stoves), compounding every five years. 

The way we have tried to implement this varying Capex in the Technodata file is by repeating rows of technologies under different years within the Time column and a different value of Capex each time. However, this is causing us to run into an error which doesn't occur without these repeated rows, keeping everything else the same.

Are we missing any other changes that need to be made?

Many thanks,

Mia and Avi

[Alexander Kell]

Hi Both,

What’s the error? 

It may be that you are only adding new rows for the technologies that you want to change. 

If you add a new row for a new year, you have to do this for every single technology, even if their capex doesn’t change over time.

Best wishes,

Alex 

On 26 Nov 2021, at 17:51, Avinasshini Seran <avina...@gmail.com> wrote:

Hi all,

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[Mia McLachlan]

The model runs until 2040 and we get this error message:

Traceback (most recent call last):

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\runpy.py", line 193, in _run_module_as_main

    "__main__", mod_spec)

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\runpy.py", line 85, in _run_code

    exec(code, run_globals)

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\__main__.py", line 54, in <module>

    muse_main()

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\site-packages\click\core.py", line 1137, in __call__

    return self.main(*args, **kwargs)

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\site-packages\click\core.py", line 1062, in main

    rv = self.invoke(ctx)

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\site-packages\click\core.py", line 1404, in invoke

    return ctx.invoke(self.callback, **ctx.params)

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\site-packages\click\core.py", line 763, in invoke

    return __callback(*args, **kwargs)

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\__main__.py", line 51, in muse_main

    MCA.factory(settings).run()

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\mca.py", line 319, in run

    _, new_market, self.sectors = self.find_equilibrium(new_market)

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\mca.py", line 200, in find_equilibrium

    equilibrium=self.equilibrium,

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\mca.py", line 494, in find_equilibrium

    market, equilibrium_sectors = single_year_iteration(market, sectors)

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\mca.py", line 412, in single_year_iteration

    market[["supply", "consumption", "prices"]]  # type:ignore

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\sectors\sector.py", line 233, in next

    technologies, market, time_period=time_period, current_year=current_year

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\sectors\subsector.py", line 73, in invest

    technologies, market, time_period, current_year=current_year

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\sectors\subsector.py", line 113, in aggregate_lp

    forecast=self.forecast,

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\demand_share.py", line 104, in demand_share

    return function(agents, market, technologies, **keyword_args)

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\registration.py", line 172, in decorated

    result = inner_decorated(*args, **kwargs)

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\demand_share.py", line 260, in new_and_retro

    retro_capacity, demands.retrofit.sel(region=region), decommissioning

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\demand_share.py", line 333, in _inner_split

    for key, capacity in assets.items()

  File "c:\users\mrmia\muse\src\muse\demand_share.py", line 333, in <dictcomp>

    for key, capacity in assets.items()

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\site-packages\xarray\core\common.py", line 697, in groupby

    self, group, squeeze=squeeze, restore_coord_dims=restore_coord_dims

  File "C:\Users\mrmia\anaconda3\envs\muse\lib\site-packages\xarray\core\groupby.py", line 317, in __init__

    raise ValueError(f"{group.name} must not be empty")

ValueError: technology must not be empty

Best,

Avi and Mia

[Alex Kell (Kell)]

I would try adding a small capacity (e.g. 0.01) in the ExistingCapacity.csv file for the entries which are 0. 

Let us know if this problem continues after this.

Best wishes,

Alex

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[Mia McLachlan]

The model ran successful but this is the resulting capacity output (attached). It only seems to be considerering technology installed in 2020 and therefore cannot meet demand. There is a warning message: 'Check growth constraints for cook' which we haven't seen before. We're not sure how change growth constrains for cook.

Best wishes,

Avi and Mia

[sara giarola]

The fact that it "seems to be considering technology installed in 2020" is quite generic to be commented. The capacity only retires after the end of the lifetime, but then it is added just to meet demand growth from previous period and the decommissioned capacity. Basically the capacity trend needs to be checked with the demand trend. If the model is not installing anymore than the problem is somewhere else, rather than the growth constraints. You can try and recollect what change you made before causing the error.

The "check growth" is the warning about not meeting demand of a service. The suggestions below about how to change the growth constraints work only if the problem is "stated correctly from the agents' perspectives, which I am not able to judge but I am inclined to assume if the model des not install capacity after 2020 (if true).

Re: growth constraints: if the model is so constrained that it cannot meet the demand. First thing I would try a sensitivity on the three growth parameters (MaxCapacityLimit, MaximumCapacityAddition, and MaximumCapacityGrowth) for the technologies service cook. In order to do so, you must check that the total capacity limit is higher than the max demand you are seving divided by the utilisation factor. The max capacity addition needs could be estimated as a fraction of the TotalCapacity addition: if you consider the period where the demand ncreases the most, the max addition * maxgrowth needs to be comparable with this demand. If you apply this number equally for all the technologies, this would quite relax your problem; you can decide to reduce it divinding it by the number of technologies available and here you may considerable reduce the cpacity you can install. For the MaximumGrowth you can start with 1 in a first instance meaning that the no further restricitions applies on top of the addition constraint, if smaller than you are restricting the addition further.

This process is a trial and error process, so make sure you try a wider range of alternatives until you see any sort of change, modifying each single parameter at a time.

[Mia McLachlan]

Hi Sara, what is the different between a growth contraint on a technology, say, 'wood' and a growth constraint on a service, say, 'cook'?

So far I have had no joy carrying out a sensitivity analysis which makes me think that like you said the problem is somewhere else rather than the growth constraints.

[sara giarola]

Growth constraints only apply to technologies. When MUSE raises a warning that the demand of a commodity is not met, it asks to check the growth on a certain commodity, but this means that the technologies producing the selected commodity have insufficient growth. In fact the insufficient capacity installed causes the demand to not be met.

When you add the "excluded_commodities", this serves to distinguish between commodities produced from those outside a sector. The convenience to exclude commodities from the market comes from the fact that they are not produced in the sector/s of study. For example, "wood" is not produced within the residential sector which you are modelling. "cook" is a service produced from the residential sector. For this reason, it is worth checking a growth constraint on the latter commodity only (which is produced in the sector of study), rahter than on the former (which is outside the studied system boundaries).