Obama’s Presidency and Turkish-US relations

[Prof. Dr. Mukerrem Hic]

Obama’s election as president is a remarkable example of American
democracy and equality of opportunity. No doubt this election was also
a defeat of the economic policies of the Republican Party which is
responsible from the present global financial crisis. In this respect
the Obama victory is parallel to Franklin D. Roosevelt's win in 1932
following the Great Depression. It was also a defeat of all the
political, international and economic mistakes of the Bush
administration.

I will summarize here the possible effect of Obama presidency on
Turkish-US relations and compare Obama’s views with those of McCain
from the Turkish port of view. The major issues are summarized below.

1) The 1915 “event” was called a “tragedy” by McCain and “genocide” by
Obama. If in his presidency, Obama insists on passing a law to that
effect, as he promised in his campaign speeches, it will definitely
impair Turkish-US relations severely. It would also hurt the latest
moves by Turkey and Armenia towards normalizing their relations.
Incidentally, Bush as President had fought hard during his presidency
to prevent such a law proposed in the senate.

It is must astonishing that politicians, thinking only about election
outcomes and votes would accept to 1915 “tragedy” as “genocide”
without ever getting into full historical facts. They would be content
with only what the diaspora in their country tell them. And the US
administrations should also refrain trying to pacify the diaspora by
arguing that they do accept the 1915 event as a “genocide” but refrain
from calling it as such because they do not want to hurt Turkish-US
strategic partnership. Similarly, Turkish governments should also
cease to use the strategic partnership agreement to prevent US
administration to pass a law accepting the 1915 event as “genocide”.

2) On the Cyprus issue and Turkey’s military presence in Cyprus,
Turkey had been called an “occupier” by Obama in his contacts with
organizations of Americans with Greek origins, though this “term” was
not mentioned in his program. In contrast McCain had emphasized only
the need for a satisfactory solution for all parties concern in the
Cyprus issue.

Turkey’s stand should be known to all the experts on the subject:
Turkey military will leave when a satisfactory and permanent solution
in reached. But both the USA and particularly the EU continue to
strengthen the hand of Greek Cypriots, thus contributing to the Cyprus
“impasse”.

3) On the withdrawal of US from Iraq, Obama gave a definitive date for
full pull-out while his vice presidential candidate, Joe Biden stated
that they would consider a “loose confederation” of Sunnites, Shiites
and Kurds in Iraq as the eventual solution. In contrast, McCain had
suggested he would reinforce American troops for a more orderly
eventual withdrawal – without giving on exact date for withdrawal. He
also stressed the continued unity of Iraqi state. McCain’s vision is
also the preferred view of Turkey.

While closer relations with Iraqi Kurds and Turkey would be eventually
advantageous, it is also of utmost importance that the US
administration should continue to denounce PKK and help Turkey to
cease their existence in Northern Iraq, aided in this effort by
Barzani. It would be most astonishing if the US administration would
ever think that a semi-autonomous confederate Kurdish state can
replace Turkey as “influential American stronghold” in the Middle
Eastern.

4) Both Obama and McCain thought Turkey’s eventual place is EU
membership. But, the real chance of Turkey becoming an EU member is
very small while the support given by the Bush administration to the
AKP government as mildly Islamic would in the long run have encouraged
radical Islamic religiosity and the latter would be even further
removed from EU membership. The so-called mildly Islamic AKP
government already slackened its pace of political reforms for EU
membership.

Until Obama actually takes the reins he would certainly be informed in
greater detail on Turkish-US relations and the need to keep relations
strong as well as many correct points in the Turkish theses on about
topics.

If Obama chooses a stand very contrary to Turkey's, straining Turkish-
US relations would be to the disadvantage of both countries. If
caution slackened in these relations, Obama’s choice of Joe Biden as
vice-president could prove a disadvantage, given Joe Biden’s previous
stance concerning Turkey.

On the other hand, if Obama makes peace with the world, which he
promised he would in contrast to Bush who antagonized most countries,
it would be constructive for all, including the Turkish-US relations,
as was the case, for instance, with Clinton.