Slow uptake of Thunderbird 10?

[Simon Paquet]

Hi,

looking at add-on usage statistics for the most popular Thunderbird
add-ons with public statistics on AMO (Lightning, EnigMail, GMail
Conversation View) it seems that people are pretty slow with updating
to Thunderbird 10?

For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
- TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
- TB8 has a usage share of 59,42%
- TB7 has a usage share of 52,11%
- TB6 has a usage share of 53,06%

I'm leaving TB9 out of this, because it was released shortly before
the christmas holiday period and therefore its uptake was very slow.

I see similar things for the other popular add-ons. What is going on
here?

--
Simon

[Justin Wood (Callek)]

Ummm, am I imagining things, or does your usage % not align into a good
meaning here.

I see 25+59+52+53 which is well over 150%....

%'s that in aggregate are not 100% are not statistically relevant when
correlating to each other (imo).

--
~Justin Wood (Callek)

[Blake Winton]

On 08-02-12 5:32 , Justin Wood (Callek) wrote:

> Simon Paquet wrote:
>> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
>> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
>> - TB8 has a usage share of 59,42%
>> - TB7 has a usage share of 52,11%
>> - TB6 has a usage share of 53,06%
>>

>> I see similar things for the other popular add-ons. What is going on
>> here?
>
> Ummm, am I imagining things, or does your usage % not align into a good
> meaning here.
>
> I see 25+59+52+53 which is well over 150%....
>
> %'s that in aggregate are not 100% are not statistically relevant when
> correlating to each other (imo).

I originally thought that, too, but that's not quite what Simon is
saying here…

The data Simon presented shows that
8 days after the TB10 release, 26% of Thunderbird users were using TB10.
8 days after the TB 8 release, 59% of Thunderbird users were using TB 8.
8 days after the TB 7 release, 52% of Thunderbird users were using TB 7.
8 days after the TB 6 release, 53% of Thunderbird users were using TB 6.

So, the question is why our users aren't upgrading to TB10 at the same
rate that they were to TB 8, 7, or 6?

And the answer is that we haven't implemented IMAP 5 support yet. (No,
I'm kidding, I have no idea what the answer is… It's a good question,
though.)

Later,
Blake.

[Peter Lairo]

On Mi. 08.02.2012 11:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
> people are pretty slow with updating to Thunderbird 10
>

> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%

> - TB 8 has a usage share of 59,42%
> - TB 7 has a usage share of 52,11%
> - TB 6 has a usage share of 53,06%

>
> What is going on here?

Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].

[1] e.g. Bug 250539 - New paragraph (e.g. list) clears formatting, does
not respect font prefs for HTML messages
https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=250539

[2]
http://getsatisfaction.com/mozilla_messaging/topics/font_markup_problems_in_the_compose_message_window
--
Regards,
Peter Lairo

Bugs I think are important:
https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=250539
https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=391057
https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=436259
https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=446444

Islam: http://www.jihadwatch.org/islam101/
Israel: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/myths2/
Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster: http://www.venganza.org/
Anthropogenic Global Warming skepsis: http://tinyurl.com/AGW-Skepsis

[Jesse Thompson]

On 2/8/12 8:47 AM, Peter Lairo wrote:
> On Mi. 08.02.2012 11:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
>> What is going on here?
>
> Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
> fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].

99% of end-users don't peruse bug trackers, so they won't know whether
or not TB10 fixes their bug. So, unless they are jaded (in which case
they are already thinking about switching to another client), they will
likely want to upgrade in hope that their bug is fixed.

To be honest, I am a person who put it off until now. Here was my train
of thought.

1. I start up Thunderbird and start checking my email.
2. Thunderbird interrupts me with a popup and says it wants to install
a new major version and it will want to restart.
3. The brief release notes within the text of the popup don't contain
any obvious thing I care about, and I'm busy at the moment, so I tell it
to go away.
4. goto 1

I see two problems/solutions:

1) I can't remember exactly what that upgrade nag-popup says, but I
think that it isn't making a compelling case to the user to bother
upgrading at that moment.

2) You should offer an "upgrade upon quit" option. I had the same issue
with iTerm2 (always too busy to upgrade at the moment) until they
started offering that option.

Jesse

[Joshua Cranmer]

On 2/8/2012 8:47 AM, Peter Lairo wrote:
> On Mi. 08.02.2012 11:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
>> people are pretty slow with updating to Thunderbird 10
>>
>> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
>> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
>> - TB 8 has a usage share of 59,42%
>> - TB 7 has a usage share of 52,11%
>> - TB 6 has a usage share of 53,06%
>>
>> What is going on here?
>
> Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
> fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].
>

Considering that even more important bugs
(<https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=695309>)[1] have been
fixed, I don't think that hypothesis holds any water.

[1] This bug garnered 30 votes in under 3 months, which made it the most
highly-voted for bug, weighted by age, at least since we had that
attachment fiasco back with TB 3.0.

[Mark Banner]

On 08/02/2012 05:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
> looking at add-on usage statistics for the most popular Thunderbird
> add-ons with public statistics on AMO (Lightning, EnigMail, GMail
> Conversation View) it seems that people are pretty slow with updating
> to Thunderbird 10?

This is an intentional decision where we have been testing out pushing
out updates slowly so that we can start to assess the slightly wider
feedback before pushing out to everyone. This is following what Firefox
has also done for this release.

In rolling out the updates, we are looking to be fully unthrottled in
about 1-2 weeks.

Generally, we could do with more people testing beta [1] which would
give us that feedback earlier, but this is an interim trial that we're
attempting this time around.

Mark.

[1] http://www.mozilla.org/thunderbird/channel/

[Justin Wood (Callek)]

Mark Banner wrote:
> On 08/02/2012 05:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
>> looking at add-on usage statistics for the most popular Thunderbird
>> add-ons with public statistics on AMO (Lightning, EnigMail, GMail
>> Conversation View) it seems that people are pretty slow with updating
>> to Thunderbird 10?
>
> This is an intentional decision

Ahhh I missed that Thunderbird was following suit with throttling, had I
known that I would have said as such earlier to save everyone the
trouble ;-)

--
~Justin Wood (Callek)

[Simon Paquet]

Justin Wood (Callek) wrote on 08. Feb 2012:

>> looking at add-on usage statistics for the most popular
>> Thunderbird add-ons with public statistics on AMO (Lightning,
>> EnigMail, GMail Conversation View) it seems that people are
>> pretty slow with updating to Thunderbird 10?
>>
>> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
>> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
>> - TB8 has a usage share of 59,42%
>> - TB7 has a usage share of 52,11%
>> - TB6 has a usage share of 53,06%
>

> Ummm, am I imagining things, or does your usage % not align into
> a good meaning here.
>
> I see 25+59+52+53 which is well over 150%....

Blake said it better than I did:

Looking at the Lightning data (which comprises of roughly 20% of all
Thunderbird users):

- 8 days after the TB10 release, 26% of TB users were using TB10
- 8 days after the TB 8 release, 59% of TB users were using TB 8
- 8 days after the TB 7 release, 52% of TB users were using TB 7
- 8 days after the TB 6 release, 53% of TB users were using TB 6

Clear?

--
Simon

[Simon Paquet]

Mark Banner wrote on 08. Feb 2012:

>> looking at add-on usage statistics for the most popular Thunderbird
>> add-ons with public statistics on AMO (Lightning, EnigMail, GMail
>> Conversation View) it seems that people are pretty slow with updating
>> to Thunderbird 10?
>
> This is an intentional decision where we have been testing out pushing
> out updates slowly so that we can start to assess the slightly wider
> feedback before pushing out to everyone. This is following what Firefox
> has also done for this release.

I understand the reasoning, but aren't we deliberately jeopardizing
our users with this, who are not getting security updates as fast as
they should with this approach?

--
Simon

[Wayne Mery]

On 2/8/2012 9:47 AM, Peter Lairo wrote:
> On Mi. 08.02.2012 11:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
>> people are pretty slow with updating to Thunderbird 10
>>
>> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
>> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
>> - TB 8 has a usage share of 59,42%
>> - TB 7 has a usage share of 52,11%
>> - TB 6 has a usage share of 53,06%
>>
>> What is going on here?
>
> Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
> fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].

yeah, it sucks for some users that it's not fixed. But your assertion
completely ignores the *fact* that millions of users have updated from
version 2, version 3, etc., etc. You are being silly just to push your
fav bug.

--
contribute ... http://wiki.mozilla.org/Thunderbird:Testing
evangelize ... http://www.spreadthunderbird.com/aff/165/

[Ron K.]

Blake Winton on 2/8/2012 9:14 AM, keyboarded a reply:

A partial answer is TB10 is not auto updating. I have yet to see TB
notify me that TB10 is ready for DL/Install.

In fact I have been contemplating a posting to TB Dev group to ask how
many Minutes a session has to be active before TB performs an updater check.

--
Ron K.
Who is General Failure, and why is he searching my HDD?
Kernel Restore reported Major Error used BSOD to msg the enemy!

[Wayne Mery]

see https://wiki.mozilla.org/Software_Update:Checking_For_Updates
and plug app.update into the about:config filter

[Ron K.]

Mark Banner on 2/8/2012 10:46 AM, keyboarded a reply:

So this explains why I am still waiting for TB9 to inform me that TB10 is
available. Was beginning to think there was an issue with the behavior of
my install or that my sessions were not long enough to trigger an update
notice.

[Wayne Mery]

and https://developer.mozilla.org/en/XULRunner/Application_Update

[Mark Banner]

On 08/02/2012 11:06, Simon Paquet wrote:
> I understand the reasoning, but aren't we deliberately jeopardizing
> our users with this, who are not getting security updates as fast as
> they should with this approach?

This is a small compromise, but at the moment we haven't been seeing
exploits for these security issues. We are constantly watching, and if
we did see some, then we could easily get updates pushed out fully in a
very short time.

If people are concerned, then they can just go to Help -> About and get
the latest update.

Mark.

[Peter Lairo]

On Mi. 08.02.2012 16:16, Joshua Cranmer wrote:
> On 2/8/2012 8:47 AM, Peter Lairo wrote:
>> On Mi. 08.02.2012 11:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
>>> people are pretty slow with updating to Thunderbird 10
>>>

>>> What is going on here?
>>
>> Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
>> fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].
>>
> Considering that even more important bugs
> (<https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=695309>)[1] have been
> fixed, I don't think that hypothesis holds any water.

Are you saying that *newsgroups* are more important than *e-mails*? That
there are more potential newsgroup users than potential e-mail users?
Buahahahah!!!

[Peter Lairo]

On Mi. 08.02.2012 17:13, Wayne Mery wrote:
> On 2/8/2012 9:47 AM, Peter Lairo wrote:
>> On Mi. 08.02.2012 11:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
>>> people are pretty slow with updating to Thunderbird 10
>>>
>>> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
>>> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
>>> - TB 8 has a usage share of 59,42%
>>> - TB 7 has a usage share of 52,11%
>>> - TB 6 has a usage share of 53,06%
>>>
>>> What is going on here?
>>
>> Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
>> fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].
>
> yeah, it sucks for some users that it's not fixed. But your assertion
> completely ignores the *fact* that millions of users have updated from
> version 2, version 3, etc., etc. You are being silly just to push your
> fav bug.

My point is that they have *run out of patience*. So yes, they have put
up with this bug through all those versions; but at some point people
wake up and realize that "Hey! I'd like an e-mail program that doesn't
f**k up my fonts - before I die. I#ve waited long enough."

Assuming that people's patience is not endless is hardly "silly".
Assuming that users will suffer forever *is* silly (actually: foolish).

[Ron K.]

Wayne Mery on 2/8/2012 11:50 AM, keyboarded a reply:

Thanks Wayne, but Mark provided info else where in the thread that TB10
roll-out is being throttled. I happen to be one of the delayed recipients.

[Jim]

On 02/08/2012 08:47 AM, Peter Lairo wrote:
> On Mi. 08.02.2012 11:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
>> people are pretty slow with updating to Thunderbird 10
>>
>> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
>> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
>> - TB 8 has a usage share of 59,42%
>> - TB 7 has a usage share of 52,11%
>> - TB 6 has a usage share of 53,06%
>>
>> What is going on here?
>
> Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
> fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].

You'll note that the original post doesn't say anything about the number
of Thunderbird users decreasing (because it's not), only that the
percentage of users who've *upgraded* is less than usual. I find it
highly unlikely that a person would look at the release notes for an
update, see that a particular bug is unfixed, and then out of
frustration, refuse to upgrade, but continue using the old version.

- Jim

[EE]

Where are those numbers coming from? Was that for the number of
downloads for each version from Mozilla websites, or updates, or both?

[Simon Paquet]

EE wrote on 08. Feb 2012:

> Where are those numbers coming from? Was that for the number of
> downloads for each version from Mozilla websites, or updates, or both?

See the original post of this thread. Those are usage numbers, not
download numbers.

--
Simon

[Tranas]

On 2012.02.08 16:47, Peter Lairo wrote:
> Hypothesis: People are realizing that important bugs[1] aren't being
> fixed, and thus even long-time Thunderbird users are bailing out[2].

not hypothesis -

*fact*

[Simon Paquet]

Mark Banner wrote on 08. Feb 2012:

>> looking at add-on usage statistics for the most popular Thunderbird
>> add-ons with public statistics on AMO (Lightning, EnigMail, GMail
>> Conversation View) it seems that people are pretty slow with updating
>> to Thunderbird 10?
>
> This is an intentional decision where we have been testing out pushing
> out updates slowly so that we can start to assess the slightly wider
> feedback before pushing out to everyone. This is following what Firefox
> has also done for this release.
>
> In rolling out the updates, we are looking to be fully unthrottled in
> about 1-2 weeks.

Any ETA now on when the unthrottling starts?

--
Simon

[Mark Banner]

As it happens, we unthrottled yesterday (we had to wait for some extra
partials for 9.0.1 users).

Mark.

[Joni Nevalainen]

On 2012-02-08 12:23, Simon Paquet wrote:
> For example with Lightning, 8 days after its release
> - TB10 has a usage share of 25,84%
> - TB8 has a usage share of 59,42%
> - TB7 has a usage share of 52,11%
> - TB6 has a usage share of 53,06%
>

> I see similar things for the other popular add-ons. What is going on
> here?

One point that might affect things - the package update schedule of
distros. For example, redhat just updated TB 10 to RHEL6, but lightning
hasn't been updated yet so the repository version is incompatible.

-Neva

[Simon Paquet]

I don't think so. Linux just makes up 9% of Lightning's userbase. So a
different package update schedule of a single distro won't affect the
numbers in such a significant way.

Simon