The selection of issues that should rank high on the agenda of concern
for human welfare and rights is, naturally, a subjective matter. But
there are a few choices that seem unavoidable, because they bear so
directly on the prospects for decent survival. Among them are at least
these three: nuclear war, environmental disaster, and the fact that the
government of the world's leading power is acting in ways that increase
the likelihood of these catastrophes. It is important to stress the
government, because the population, not surprisingly, does not agree.
That brings up a fourth issue that should deeply concern Americans, and
the world: the sharp divide between public opinion and public policy,
one of the reasons for the fear, which cannot casually be put aside,
that, as Gar Alperowitz puts it in America Beyond Capitalism, "the
American 'system' as a whole is in real trouble - that it is heading in
a direction that spells the end of its historic values [of] equality,
liberty, and meaningful democracy".
The "system" is coming to have some of the features of failed
states, to adopt a currently fashionable notion that is conventionally
applied to states regarded as potential threats to our security (like
Iraq) or as needing our intervention to rescue the population from
severe internal threats (like Haiti). Though the concept is recognised
to be, according to the journal Foreign Affairs, "frustratingly
imprecise", some of the primary characteristics of failed states can be
identified. One is their inability or unwillingness to protect their
citizens from violence and perhaps even destruction. Another is their
tendency to regard themselves as beyond the reach of domestic or
international law, and hence free to carry out aggression and violence.
And if they have democratic forms, they suffer from a serious
"democratic deficit" that deprives their formal democratic institutions
of real substance.
Among the hardest tasks that anyone can undertake, and one of the
most important, is to look honestly in the mirror. If we allow
ourselves to do so, we should have little difficulty in finding the
characteristics of "failed states" right at home.
No one
familiar with history should be surprised that the growing democratic
deficit in the United States is accompanied by declaration of messianic
missions to bring democracy to a suffering world. Declarations of noble
intent by systems of power are rarely complete fabrication, and the
same is true in this case. Under some conditions, forms of democracy
are indeed acceptable. Abroad, as the leading scholar-advocate of
"democracy promotion" concludes, we find a "strong line of continuity":
democracy is acceptable if and only if it is consistent with strategic
and economic interests (Thomas Carothers). In modified form, the
doctrine holds at home as well.
The basic dilemma facing policymakers is sometimes candidly
recognised at the dovish liberal extreme of the spectrum, for example,
by Robert Pastor, President Carter's national security adviser for
Latin America. He explained why the administration had to support the
murderous and corrupt Somoza regime in Nicaragua, and, when that proved
impossible, to try at least to maintain the US-trained National Guard
even as it was massacring the population "with a brutality a nation
usually reserves for its enemy", killing some 40,000 people. The reason
was the familiar one: "The United States did not want to control
Nicaragua or the other nations of the region, but it also did not want
developments to get out of control. It wanted Nicaraguans to act
independently, except when doing so would affect US interests
adversely."
Similar dilemmas faced Bush administration planners after their
invasion of Iraq. They want Iraqis "to act independently, except when
doing so would affect US interests adversely". Iraq must therefore be
sovereign and democratic, but within limits. It must somehow be
constructed as an obedient client state, much in the manner of the
traditional order in Central America. At a general level, the pattern
is familiar, reaching to the opposite extreme of institutional
structures. The Kremlin was able to maintain satellites that were run
by domestic political and military forces, with the iron fist poised.
Germany was able to do much the same in occupied Europe even while it
was at war, as did fascist Japan in Man-churia (its Manchukuo). Fascist
Italy achieved similar results in North Africa while carrying out
virtual genocide that in no way harmed its favourable image in the West
and possibly inspired Hitler. Traditional imperial and neocolonial
systems illustrate many variations on similar themes.
To achieve the traditional goals in Iraq has proven to be
surprisingly difficult, despite unusually favourable circumstances. The
dilemma of combining a measure of independence with firm control arose
in a stark form not long after the invasion, as mass non-violent
resistance compelled the invaders to accept far more Iraqi initiative
than they had anticipated. The outcome even evoked the nightmarish
prospect of a more or less democratic and sovereign Iraq taking its
place in a loose Shiite alliance comprising Iran, Shiite Iraq, and
possibly the nearby Shiite-dominated regions of Saudi Arabia,
controlling most of the world's oil and independent of Washington.
The situation could get worse. Iran might give up on hopes that
Europe could become independent of the United States, and turn
eastward. Highly relevant background is discussed by Selig Harrison, a
leading specialist on these topics. "The nuclear negotiations between
Iran and the European Union were based on a bargain that the EU, held
back by the US, has failed to honour," Harrison observes.
"The bargain was that Iran would suspend uranium enrichment, and the
EU would undertake security guarantees. The language of the joint
declaration was "unambiguous. 'A mutually acceptable agreement,' it
said, would not only provide 'objective guarantees' that Iran's nuclear
programme is 'exclusively for peaceful purposes' but would 'equally
provide firm commitments on security issues.'"
The phrase "security issues" is a thinly veiled reference to the
threats by the United States and Israel to bomb Iran, and preparations
to do so. The model regularly adduced is Israel's bombing of Iraq's
Osirak reactor in 1981, which appears to have initiated Saddam's
nuclear weapons programs, another demonstration that violence tends to
elicit violence. Any attempt to execute similar plans against Iran
could lead to immediate violence, as is surely understood in
Washington. During a visit to Tehran, the influential Shiite cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr warned that his militia would defend Iran in the case
of any attack, "one of the strongest signs yet", the Washington Post
reported, "that Iraq could become a battleground in any Western
conflict with Iran, raising the spectre of Iraqi Shiite militias - or
perhaps even the US-trained Shiite-dominated military - taking on
American troops here in sympathy with Iran." The Sadrist bloc, which
registered substantial gains in the December 2005 elections, may soon
become the most powerful single political force in Iraq. It is
consciously pursuing the model of other successful Islamist groups,
such as Hamas in Palestine, combining strong resistance to military
occupation with grassroots social organising and service to the poor.
Washington's unwillingness to allow regional security issues to be
considered is nothing new. It has also arisen repeatedly in the
confrontation with Iraq. In the background is the matter of Israeli
nuclear weapons, a topic that Washington bars from international
consideration. Beyond that lurks what Harrison rightly describes as
"the central problem facing the global non-proliferation regime": the
failure of the nuclear states to live up to their nuclear Non
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligation "to phase out their own nuclear
weapons" - and, in Washington's case, formal rejection of the
obligation.
Unlike Europe, China refuses to be intimidated by Washington, a
primary reason for the growing fear of China on the part of US
planners. Much of Iran's oil already goes to China, and China is
providing Iran with weapons, presumably considered a deterrent to US
threats. Still more uncomfortable for Washington is the fact that,
according to the Financial Times, "the Sino-Saudi relationship has
developed dramatically", including Chinese military aid to Saudi Arabia
and gas exploration rights for China. By 2005, Saudi Arabia provided
about 17 per cent of China's oil imports. Chinese and Saudi oil
companies have signed deals for drilling and construction of a huge
refinery (with Exxon Mobil as a partner). A January 2006 visit by Saudi
king Abdullah to Beijing was expected to lead to a Sino-Saudi
memorandum of understanding calling for "increased cooperation and
investment between the two countries in oil, natural gas, and minerals".
Indian analyst Aijaz Ahmad observes that Iran could "emerge as the
virtual linchpin in the making, over the next decade or so, of what
China and Russia have come to regard as an absolutely indispensable
Asian Energy Security Grid, for breaking Western control of the world's
energy supplies and securing the great industrial revolution of Asia".
South Korea and southeast Asian countries are likely to join, possibly
Japan as well. A crucial question is how India will react. It rejected
US pressures to withdraw from an oil pipeline deal with Iran. On the
other hand, India joined the United States and the EU in voting for an
anti-Iranian resolution at the IAEA, joining also in their hypocrisy,
since India rejects the NPT regime to which Iran, so far, appears to be
largely conforming. Ahmad reports that India may have secretly reversed
its stand under Iranian threats to terminate a $20bn gas deal.
Washington later warned India that its "nuclear deal with the US could
be ditched" if India did not go along with US demands, eliciting a
sharp rejoinder from the Indian foreign ministry and an evasive
tempering of the warning by the US embassy.
The prospect that Europe and Asia might move toward greater
independence has seriously troubled US planners since World War II, and
concerns have significantly increased as the tripolar order has
continued to evolve, along with new south-south interactions and
rapidly growing EU engagement with China.
US intelligence has projected that the United States, while
controlling Middle East oil for the traditional reasons, will itself
rely mainly on more stable Atlantic Basin resources (West Africa,
western hemisphere). Control of Middle East oil is now far from a sure
thing, and these expectations are also threatened by developments in
the western hemisphere, accelerated by Bush administration policies
that have left the United States remarkably isolated in the global
arena. The Bush administration has even succeeded in alienating Canada,
an impressive feat.
Canada's minister of natural resources said that within a few years
one quarter of the oil that Canada now sends to the United States may
go to China instead. In a further blow to Washington's energy policies,
the leading oil exporter in the hemisphere, Venezuela, has forged
probably the closest relations with China of any Latin American
country, and is planning to sell increasing amounts of oil to China as
part of its effort to reduce dependence on the openly hostile US
government. Latin America as a whole is increasing trade and other
relations with China, with some setbacks, but likely expansion, in
particular for raw materials exporters like Brazil and Chile.
Meanwhile, Cuba-Venezuela relations are becoming very close, each
relying on its comparative advantage. Venezuela is providing low-cost
oil while in return Cuba organises literacy and health programs,
sending thousands of highly skilled professionals, teachers, and
doctors, who work in the poorest and most neglected areas, as they do
elsewhere in the Third World. Cuba-Venezuela projects are extending to
the Caribbean countries, where Cuban doctors are providing healthcare
to thousands of people with Venezuelan funding. Operation Miracle, as
it is called, is described by Jamaica's ambassador to Cuba as "an
example of integration and south-south cooperation", and is generating
great enthusiasm among the poor majority. Cuban medical assistance is
also being welcomed elsewhere. One of the most horrendous tragedies of
recent years was the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. In addition
to the huge toll, unknown numbers of survivors have to face brutal
winter weather with little shelter, food, or medical assistance. One
has to turn to the South Asian press to read that "Cuba has provided
the largest contingent of doctors and paramedics to Pakistan", paying
all the costs (perhaps with Venezuelan funding), and that President
Musharraf expressed his "deep gratitude" for the "spirit and
compassion" of the Cuban medical teams.
Some analysts have suggested that Cuba and Venezuela might even
unite, a step towards further integration of Latin America in a bloc
that is more independent from the United States. Venezuela has joined
Mercosur, the South American customs union, a move described by
Argentine president Nestor Kirchner as "a milestone" in the development
of this trading bloc, and welcomed as opening "a new chapter in our
integration" by Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Independent experts say that "adding Venezuela to the bloc furthers its
geopolitical vision of eventually spreading Mercosur to the rest of the
region".
At a meeting to mark Venezuela's entry into Mercosur, Venezuelan
president Hugo Chavez said, "We cannot allow this to be purely an
economic project, one for the elites and for the transnational
companies," a not very oblique reference to the US-sponsored "Free
Trade Agreement for the Americas", which has aroused strong public
opposition. Venezuela also supplied Argentina with fuel oil to help
stave off an energy crisis, and bought almost a third of Argentine debt
issued in 2005, one element of a region-wide effort to free the
countries from the control of the US-dominated IMF after two decades of
disastrous effects of conformity to its rules. The IMF has "acted
towards our country as a promoter and a vehicle of policies that caused
poverty and pain among the Argentine people", President Kirchner said
in announcing his decision to pay almost $1 trillion to rid itself of
the IMF forever. Radically violating IMF rules, Argentina enjoyed a
substantial recovery from the disaster left by IMF policies.
Steps toward independent regional integration advanced further with
the election of Evo Morales in Bolivia in December 2005, the first
president from the indigenous majority. Morales moved quickly to reach
energy accords with Venezuela.
Though Central America was largely disciplined by Reaganite violence
and terror, the rest of the hemisphere is falling out of control,
particularly from Venezuela to Argentina, which was the poster child of
the IMF and the Treasury Department until its economy collapsed under
the policies they imposed. Much of the region has left-centre
governments. The indigenous populations have become much more active
and influential, particularly in Bolivia and Ecuador, both major energy
producers, where they either want oil and gas to be domestically
controlled or, in some cases, oppose production altogether. Many
indigenous people apparently do not see any reason why their lives,
societies, and cultures should be disrupted or destroyed so that New
Yorkers can sit in SUVs in traffic gridlock. Some are even calling for
an "Indian nation" in South America. Meanwhile the economic integration
that is under way is reversing patterns that trace back to the Spanish
conquests, with Latin American elites and economies linked to the
imperial powers but not to one another. Along with growing south-south
interaction on a broader scale, these developments are strongly
influenced by popular organisations that are coming together in the
unprecedented international global justice movements, ludicrously
called "anti-globalisation" because they favour globalisation that
privileges the interests of people, not investors and financial
institutions. For many reasons, the system of US global dominance is
fragile, even apart from the damage inflicted by Bush planners.
One consequence is that the Bush administration's pursuit of the
traditional policies of deterring democracy faces new obstacles. It is
no longer as easy as before to resort to military coups and
international terrorism to overthrow democratically elected
governments, as Bush planners learnt ruefully in 2002 in Venezuela. The
"strong line of continuity" must be pursued in other ways, for the most
part. In Iraq, as we have seen, mass nonviolent resistance compelled
Washington and London to permit the elections they had sought to evade.
The subsequent effort to subvert the elections by providing substantial
advantages to the administration's favourite candidate, and expelling
the independent media, also failed. Washington faces further problems.
The Iraqi labor movement is making considerable progress despite the
opposition of the occupation authorities. The situation is rather like
Europe and Japan after World War II, when a primary goal of the United
States and United Kingdom was to undermine independent labour movements
- as at home, for similar reasons: organised labour contributes in
essential ways to functioning democracy with popular engagement. Many
of the measures adopted at that time - withholding food, supporting
fascist police - are no longer available. Nor is it possible today to
rely on the labour bureaucracy of the American Institute for Free Labor
Development to help undermine unions. Today, some American unions are
supporting Iraqi workers, just as they do in Colombia, where more union
activists are murdered than anywhere in the world. At least the unions
now receive support from the United Steelworkers of America and others,
while Washington continues to provide enormous funding for the
government, which bears a large part of the responsibility.
The problem of elections arose in Palestine much in the way it did
in Iraq. As already discussed, the Bush administration refused to
permit elections until the death of Yasser Arafat, aware that the wrong
man would win. After his death, the administration agreed to permit
elections, expecting the victory of its favoured Palestinian Authority
candidates. To promote this outcome, Washington resorted to much the
same modes of subversion as in Iraq, and often before. Washington used
the US Agency for International Development as an "invisible conduit"
in an effort to "increase the popularity of the Palestinian Authority
on the eve of crucial elections in which the governing party faces a
serious challenge from the radical Islamic group Hamas" (Washington
Post), spending almost $2m "on dozens of quick projects before
elections this week to bolster the governing Fatah faction's image with
voters" (New York Times). In the United States, or any Western country,
even a hint of such foreign interference would destroy a candidate, but
deeply rooted imperial mentality legitimates such routine measures
elsewhere. However, the attempt to subvert the elections again
resoundingly failed.
The US and Israeli governments now have to adjust to dealing somehow
with a radical Islamic party that approaches their traditional
rejectionist stance, though not entirely, at least if Hamas really does
mean to agree to an indefinite truce on the international border as its
leaders state. The US and Israel, in contrast, insist that Israel must
take over substantial parts of the West Bank (and the forgotten Golan
Heights). Hamas's refusal to accept Israel's "right to exist" mirrors
the refusal of Washington and Jerusalem to accept Palestine's "right to
exist" - a concept unknown in international affairs; Mexico accepts the
existence of the United States but not its abstract "right to exist" on
almost half of Mexico, acquired by conquest. Hamas's formal commitment
to "destroy Israel" places it on a par with the United States and
Israel, which vowed formally that there could be no "additional
Palestinian state" (in addition to Jordan) until they relaxed their
extreme rejectionist stand partially in the past few years, in the
manner already reviewed. Although Hamas has not said so, it would come
as no great surprise if Hamas were to agree that Jews may remain in
scattered areas in the present Israel, while Palestine constructs huge
settlement and infrastructure projects to take over the valuable land
and resources, effectively breaking Israel up into unviable cantons,
virtually separated from one another and from some small part of
Jerusalem where Jews would also be allowed to remain. And they might
agree to call the fragments "a state". If such proposals were made, we
would - rightly - regard them as virtually a reversion to Nazism, a
fact that might elicit some thoughts. If such proposals were made,
Hamas's position would be essentially like that of the United States
and Israel for the past five years, after they came to tolerate some
impoverished form of "statehood". It is fair to describe Hamas as
radical, extremist, and violent, and as a serious threat to peace and a
just political settlement. But the organisation is hardly alone in this
stance.
Elsewhere traditional means of undermining democracy have succeeded.
In Haiti, the Bush administration's favourite "democracy-building
group, the International Republican Institute", worked assiduously to
promote the opposition to President Aristide, helped by the withholding
of desperately needed aid on grounds that were dubious at best. When it
seemed that Aristide would probably win any genuine election,
Washington and the opposition chose to withdraw, a standard device to
discredit elections that are going to come out the wrong way: Nicaragua
in 1984 and Venezuela in December 2005 are examples that should be
familiar. Then followed a military coup, expulsion of the president,
and a reign of terror and violence vastly exceeding anything under the
elected government.
The persistence of the strong line of continuity to the present
again reveals that the United States is very much like other powerful
states. It pursues the strategic and economic interests of dominant
sectors of the domestic population, to the accompaniment of rhetorical
flourishes about its dedication to the highest values. That is
practically a historical universal, and the reason why sensible people
pay scant attention to declarations of noble intent by leaders, or
accolades by their followers.
One commonly hears that carping critics complain about what is
wrong, but do not present solutions. There is an accurate translation
for that charge: "They present solutions, but I don't like them." In
addition to the proposals that should be familiar about dealing with
the crises that reach to the level of survival, a few simple
suggestions for the United States have already been mentioned: 1)
accept the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and the
World Court; 2) sign and carry forward the Kyoto protocols; 3) let the
UN take the lead in international crises; 4) rely on diplomatic and
economic measures rather than military ones in confronting terror; 5)
keep to the traditional interpretation of the UN Charter; 6) give up
the Security Council veto and have "a decent respect for the opinion of
mankind," as the Declaration of Independence advises, even if power
centres disagree; 7) cut back sharply on military spending and sharply
increase social spending. For people who believe in democracy, these
are very conservative suggestions: they appear to be the opinions of
the majority of the US population, in most cases the overwhelming
majority. They are in radical opposition to public policy. To be sure,
we cannot be very confident about the state of public opinion on such
matters because of another feature of the democratic deficit: the
topics scarcely enter into public discussion and the basic facts are
little known. In a highly atomised society, the public is therefore
largely deprived of the opportunity to form considered opinions.
Another conservative suggestion is that facts, logic, and elementary
moral principles should matter. Those who take the trouble to adhere to
that suggestion will soon be led to abandon a good part of familiar
doctrine, though it is surely much easier to repeat self-serving
mantras. Such simple truths carry us some distance toward developing
more specific and detailed answers. More important, they open the way
to implement them, opportun- ities that are readily within our grasp if
we can free ourselves from the shackles of doctrine and imposed
illusion.
Though it is natural for doctrinal systems to seek to induce
pessimism, hopelessness, and despair, reality is different. There has
been substantial progress in the unending quest for justice and freedom
in recent years, leaving a legacy that can be carried forward from a
higher plane than before. Opportunities for education and organising
abound. As in the past, rights are not likely to be granted by
benevolent authorities, or won by intermittent actions - attending a
few demonstrations or pushing a lever in the personalised quadrennial
extravaganzas that are depicted as "democratic politics". As always in
the past, the tasks require dedicated day-by-day engagement to create -
in part recreate - the basis for a functioning democratic culture in
which the public plays some role in determining policies, not only in
the political arena, from which it is largely excluded, but also in the
crucial economic arena, from which it is excluded in principle. There
are many ways to promote democracy at home, carrying it to new
dimensions. Opportunities are ample, and failure to grasp them is
likely to have ominous repercussions: for the country, for the world,
and for future generations.
This is an edited extract from Failed States by Noam Chomsky
(Hamish Hamilton), £16.99. To buy it for £15.50 (inc p&p), call
Independent Books Direct on 0870 079 8897.
The selection of issues that should rank high on the agenda of concern
for human welfare and rights is, naturally, a subjective matter. But
there are a few choices that seem unavoidable, because they bear so
directly on the prospects for decent survival. Among them are at least
these three: nuclear war, environmental disaster, and the fact that the
government of the world's leading power is acting in ways that increase
the likelihood of these catastrophes. It is important to stress the
government, because the population, not surprisingly, does not agree.
That brings up a fourth issue that should deeply concern Americans, and
the world: the sharp divide between public opinion and public policy,
one of the reasons for the fear, which cannot casually be put aside,
that, as Gar Alperowitz puts it in America Beyond Capitalism, "the
American 'system' as a whole is in real trouble - that it is heading in
a direction that spells the end of its historic values [of] equality,
liberty, and meaningful democracy".
The "system" is coming to have some of the features of failed
states, to adopt a currently fashionable notion that is conventionally
applied to states regarded as potential threats to our security (like
Iraq) or as needing our intervention to rescue the population from
severe internal threats (like Haiti). Though the concept is recognised
to be, according to the journal Foreign Affairs, "frustratingly
imprecise", some of the primary characteristics of failed states can be
identified. One is their inability or unwillingness to protect their
citizens from violence and perhaps even destruction. Another is their
tendency to regard themselves as beyond the reach of domestic or
international law, and hence free to carry out aggression and violence.
And if they have democratic forms, they suffer from a serious
"democratic deficit" that deprives their formal democratic institutions
of real substance.
Among the hardest tasks that anyone can undertake, and one of the
most important, is to look honestly in the mirror. If we allow
ourselves to do so, we should have little difficulty in finding the
characteristics of "failed states" right at home.
No one
familiar with history should be surprised that the growing democratic
deficit in the United States is accompanied by declaration of messianic
missions to bring democracy to a suffering world. Declarations of noble
intent by systems of power are rarely complete fabrication, and the
same is true in this case. Under some conditions, forms of democracy
are indeed acceptable. Abroad, as the leading scholar-advocate of
"democracy promotion" concludes, we find a "strong line of continuity":
democracy is acceptable if and only if it is consistent with strategic
and economic interests (Thomas Carothers). In modified form, the
doctrine holds at home as well.
The basic dilemma facing policymakers is sometimes candidly
recognised at the dovish liberal extreme of the spectrum, for example,
by Robert Pastor, President Carter's national security adviser for
Latin America. He explained why the administration had to support the
murderous and corrupt Somoza regime in Nicaragua, and, when that proved
impossible, to try at least to maintain the US-trained National Guard
even as it was massacring the population "with a brutality a nation
usually reserves for its enemy", killing some 40,000 people. The reason
was the familiar one: "The United States did not want to control
Nicaragua or the other nations of the region, but it also did not want
developments to get out of control. It wanted Nicaraguans to act
independently, except when doing so would affect US interests
adversely."
Similar dilemmas faced Bush administration planners after their
invasion of Iraq. They want Iraqis "to act independently, except when
doing so would affect US interests adversely". Iraq must therefore be
sovereign and democratic, but within limits. It must somehow be
constructed as an obedient client state, much in the manner of the
traditional order in Central America. At a general level, the pattern
is familiar, reaching to the opposite extreme of institutional
structures. The Kremlin was able to maintain satellites that were run
by domestic political and military forces, with the iron fist poised.
Germany was able to do much the same in occupied Europe even while it
was at war, as did fascist Japan in Man-churia (its Manchukuo). Fascist
Italy achieved similar results in North Africa while carrying out
virtual genocide that in no way harmed its favourable image in the West
and possibly inspired Hitler. Traditional imperial and neocolonial
systems illustrate many variations on similar themes.
To achieve the traditional goals in Iraq has proven to be
surprisingly difficult, despite unusually favourable circumstances. The
dilemma of combining a measure of independence with firm control arose
in a stark form not long after the invasion, as mass non-violent
resistance compelled the invaders to accept far more Iraqi initiative
than they had anticipated. The outcome even evoked the nightmarish
prospect of a more or less democratic and sovereign Iraq taking its
place in a loose Shiite alliance comprising Iran, Shiite Iraq, and
possibly the nearby Shiite-dominated regions of Saudi Arabia,
controlling most of the world's oil and independent of Washington.
The situation could get worse. Iran might give up on hopes that
Europe could become independent of the United States, and turn
eastward. Highly relevant background is discussed by Selig Harrison, a
leading specialist on these topics. "The nuclear negotiations between
Iran and the European Union were based on a bargain that the EU, held
back by the US, has failed to honour," Harrison observes.
"The bargain was that Iran would suspend uranium enrichment, and the
EU would undertake security guarantees. The language of the joint
declaration was "unambiguous. 'A mutually acceptable agreement,' it
said, would not only provide 'objective guarantees' that Iran's nuclear
programme is 'exclusively for peaceful purposes' but would 'equally
provide firm commitments on security issues.'"
The phrase "security issues" is a thinly veiled reference to the
threats by the United States and Israel to bomb Iran, and preparations
to do so. The model regularly adduced is Israel's bombing of Iraq's
Osirak reactor in 1981, which appears to have initiated Saddam's
nuclear weapons programs, another demonstration that violence tends to
elicit violence. Any attempt to execute similar plans against Iran
could lead to immediate violence, as is surely understood in
Washington. During a visit to Tehran, the influential Shiite cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr warned that his militia would defend Iran in the case
of any attack, "one of the strongest signs yet", the Washington Post
reported, "that Iraq could become a battleground in any Western
conflict with Iran, raising the spectre of Iraqi Shiite militias - or
perhaps even the US-trained Shiite-dominated military - taking on
American troops here in sympathy with Iran." The Sadrist bloc, which
registered substantial gains in the December 2005 elections, may soon
become the most powerful single political force in Iraq. It is
consciously pursuing the model of other successful Islamist groups,
such as Hamas in Palestine, combining strong resistance to military
occupation with grassroots social organising and service to the poor.
Washington's unwillingness to allow regional security issues to be
considered is nothing new. It has also arisen repeatedly in the
confrontation with Iraq. In the background is the matter of Israeli
nuclear weapons, a topic that Washington bars from international
consideration. Beyond that lurks what Harrison rightly describes as
"the central problem facing the global non-proliferation regime": the
failure of the nuclear states to live up to their nuclear Non
Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligation "to phase out their own nuclear
weapons" - and, in Washington's case, formal rejection of the
obligation.
Unlike Europe, China refuses to be intimidated by Washington, a
primary reason for the growing fear of China on the part of US
planners. Much of Iran's oil already goes to China, and China is
providing Iran with weapons, presumably considered a deterrent to US
threats. Still more uncomfortable for Washington is the fact that,
according to the Financial Times, "the Sino-Saudi relationship has
developed dramatically", including Chinese military aid to Saudi Arabia
and gas exploration rights for China. By 2005, Saudi Arabia provided
about 17 per cent of China's oil imports. Chinese and Saudi oil
companies have signed deals for drilling and construction of a huge
refinery (with Exxon Mobil as a partner). A January 2006 visit by Saudi
king Abdullah to Beijing was expected to lead to a Sino-Saudi
memorandum of understanding calling for "increased cooperation and
investment between the two countries in oil, natural gas, and minerals".
Indian analyst Aijaz Ahmad observes that Iran could "emerge as the
virtual linchpin in the making, over the next decade or so, of what
China and Russia have come to regard as an absolutely indispensable
Asian Energy Security Grid, for breaking Western control of the world's
energy supplies and securing the great industrial revolution of Asia".
South Korea and southeast Asian countries are likely to join, possibly
Japan as well. A crucial question is how India will react. It rejected
US pressures to withdraw from an oil pipeline deal with Iran. On the
other hand, India joined the United States and the EU in voting for an
anti-Iranian resolution at the IAEA, joining also in their hypocrisy,
since India rejects the NPT regime to which Iran, so far, appears to be
largely conforming. Ahmad reports that India may have secretly reversed
its stand under Iranian threats to terminate a $20bn gas deal.
Washington later warned India that its "nuclear deal with the US could
be ditched" if India did not go along with US demands, eliciting a
sharp rejoinder from the Indian foreign ministry and an evasive
tempering of the warning by the US embassy.
The prospect that Europe and Asia might move toward greater
independence has seriously troubled US planners since World War II, and
concerns have significantly increased as the tripolar order has
continued to evolve, along with new south-south interactions and
rapidly growing EU engagement with China.
US intelligence has projected that the United States, while
controlling Middle East oil for the traditional reasons, will itself
rely mainly on more stable Atlantic Basin resources (West Africa,
western hemisphere). Control of Middle East oil is now far from a sure
thing, and these expectations are also threatened by developments in
the western hemisphere, accelerated by Bush administration policies
that have left the United States remarkably isolated in the global
arena. The Bush administration has even succeeded in alienating Canada,
an impressive feat.
Canada's minister of natural resources said that within a few years
one quarter of the oil that Canada now sends to the United States may
go to China instead. In a further blow to Washington's energy policies,
the leading oil exporter in the hemisphere, Venezuela, has forged
probably the closest relations with China of any Latin American
country, and is planning to sell increasing amounts of oil to China as
part of its effort to reduce dependence on the openly hostile US
government. Latin America as a whole is increasing trade and other
relations with China, with some setbacks, but likely expansion, in
particular for raw materials exporters like Brazil and Chile.
Meanwhile, Cuba-Venezuela relations are becoming very close, each
relying on its comparative advantage. Venezuela is providing low-cost
oil while in return Cuba organises literacy and health programs,
sending thousands of highly skilled professionals, teachers, and
doctors, who work in the poorest and most neglected areas, as they do
elsewhere in the Third World. Cuba-Venezuela projects are extending to
the Caribbean countries, where Cuban doctors are providing healthcare
to thousands of people with Venezuelan funding. Operation Miracle, as
it is called, is described by Jamaica's ambassador to Cuba as "an
example of integration and south-south cooperation", and is generating
great enthusiasm among the poor majority. Cuban medical assistance is
also being welcomed elsewhere. One of the most horrendous tragedies of
recent years was the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. In addition
to the huge toll, unknown numbers of survivors have to face brutal
winter weather with little shelter, food, or medical assistance. One
has to turn to the South Asian press to read that "Cuba has provided
the largest contingent of doctors and paramedics to Pakistan", paying
all the costs (perhaps with Venezuelan funding), and that President
Musharraf expressed his "deep gratitude" for the "spirit and
compassion" of the Cuban medical teams.
Some analysts have suggested that Cuba and Venezuela might even
unite, a step towards further integration of Latin America in a bloc
that is more independent from the United States. Venezuela has joined
Mercosur, the South American customs union, a move described by
Argentine president Nestor Kirchner as "a milestone" in the development
of this trading bloc, and welcomed as opening "a new chapter in our
integration" by Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Independent experts say that "adding Venezuela to the bloc furthers its
geopolitical vision of eventually spreading Mercosur to the rest of the
region".
At a meeting to mark Venezuela's entry into Mercosur, Venezuelan
president Hugo Chavez said, "We cannot allow this to be purely an
economic project, one for the elites and for the transnational
companies," a not very oblique reference to the US-sponsored "Free
Trade Agreement for the Americas", which has aroused strong public
opposition. Venezuela also supplied Argentina with fuel oil to help
stave off an energy crisis, and bought almost a third of Argentine debt
issued in 2005, one element of a region-wide effort to free the
countries from the control of the US-dominated IMF after two decades of
disastrous effects of conformity to its rules. The IMF has "acted
towards our country as a promoter and a vehicle of policies that caused
poverty and pain among the Argentine people", President Kirchner said
in announcing his decision to pay almost $1 trillion to rid itself of
the IMF forever. Radically violating IMF rules, Argentina enjoyed a
substantial recovery from the disaster left by IMF policies.
Steps toward independent regional integration advanced further with
the election of Evo Morales in Bolivia in December 2005, the first
president from the indigenous majority. Morales moved quickly to reach
energy accords with Venezuela.
Though Central America was largely disciplined by Reaganite violence
and terror, the rest of the hemisphere is falling out of control,
particularly from Venezuela to Argentina, which was the poster child of
the IMF and the Treasury Department until its economy collapsed under
the policies they imposed. Much of the region has left-centre
governments. The indigenous populations have become much more active
and influential, particularly in Bolivia and Ecuador, both major energy
producers, where they either want oil and gas to be domestically
controlled or, in some cases, oppose production altogether. Many
indigenous people apparently do not see any reason why their lives,
societies, and cultures should be disrupted or destroyed so that New
Yorkers can sit in SUVs in traffic gridlock. Some are even calling for
an "Indian nation" in South America. Meanwhile the economic integration
that is under way is reversing patterns that trace back to the Spanish
conquests, with Latin American elites and economies linked to the
imperial powers but not to one another. Along with growing south-south
interaction on a broader scale, these developments are strongly
influenced by popular organisations that are coming together in the
unprecedented international global justice movements, ludicrously
called "anti-globalisation" because they favour globalisation that
privileges the interests of people, not investors and financial
institutions. For many reasons, the system of US global dominance is
fragile, even apart from the damage inflicted by Bush planners.
One consequence is that the Bush administration's pursuit of the
traditional policies of deterring democracy faces new obstacles. It is
no longer as easy as before to resort to military coups and
international terrorism to overthrow democratically elected
governments, as Bush planners learnt ruefully in 2002 in Venezuela. The
"strong line of continuity" must be pursued in other ways, for the most
part. In Iraq, as we have seen, mass nonviolent resistance compelled
Washington and London to permit the elections they had sought to evade.
The subsequent effort to subvert the elections by providing substantial
advantages to the administration's favourite candidate, and expelling
the independent media, also failed. Washington faces further problems.
The Iraqi labor movement is making considerable progress despite the
opposition of the occupation authorities. The situation is rather like
Europe and Japan after World War II, when a primary goal of the United
States and United Kingdom was to undermine independent labour movements
- as at home, for similar reasons: organised labour contributes in
essential ways to functioning democracy with popular engagement. Many
of the measures adopted at that time - withholding food, supporting
fascist police - are no longer available. Nor is it possible today to
rely on the labour bureaucracy of the American Institute for Free Labor
Development to help undermine unions. Today, some American unions are
supporting Iraqi workers, just as they do in Colombia, where more union
activists are murdered than anywhere in the world. At least the unions
now receive support from the United Steelworkers of America and others,
while Washington continues to provide enormous funding for the
government, which bears a large part of the responsibility.
The problem of elections arose in Palestine much in the way it did
in Iraq. As already discussed, the Bush administration refused to
permit elections until the death of Yasser Arafat, aware that the wrong
man would win. After his death, the administration agreed to permit
elections, expecting the victory of its favoured Palestinian Authority
candidates. To promote this outcome, Washington resorted to much the
same modes of subversion as in Iraq, and often before. Washington used
the US Agency for International Development as an "invisible conduit"
in an effort to "increase the popularity of the Palestinian Authority
on the eve of crucial elections in which the governing party faces a
serious challenge from the radical Islamic group Hamas" (Washington
Post), spending almost $2m "on dozens of quick projects before
elections this week to bolster the governing Fatah faction's image with
voters" (New York Times). In the United States, or any Western country,
even a hint of such foreign interference would destroy a candidate, but
deeply rooted imperial mentality legitimates such routine measures
elsewhere. However, the attempt to subvert the elections again
resoundingly failed.
The US and Israeli governments now have to adjust to dealing somehow
with a radical Islamic party that approaches their traditional
rejectionist stance, though not entirely, at least if Hamas really does
mean to agree to an indefinite truce on the international border as its
leaders state. The US and Israel, in contrast, insist that Israel must
take over substantial parts of the West Bank (and the forgotten Golan
Heights). Hamas's refusal to accept Israel's "right to exist" mirrors
the refusal of Washington and Jerusalem to accept Palestine's "right to
exist" - a concept unknown in international affairs; Mexico accepts the
existence of the United States but not its abstract "right to exist" on
almost half of Mexico, acquired by conquest. Hamas's formal commitment
to "destroy Israel" places it on a par with the United States and
Israel, which vowed formally that there could be no "additional
Palestinian state" (in addition to Jordan) until they relaxed their
extreme rejectionist stand partially in the past few years, in the
manner already reviewed. Although Hamas has not said so, it would come
as no great surprise if Hamas were to agree that Jews may remain in
scattered areas in the present Israel, while Palestine constructs huge
settlement and infrastructure projects to take over the valuable land
and resources, effectively breaking Israel up into unviable cantons,
virtually separated from one another and from some small part of
Jerusalem where Jews would also be allowed to remain. And they might
agree to call the fragments "a state". If such proposals were made, we
would - rightly - regard them as virtually a reversion to Nazism, a
fact that might elicit some thoughts. If such proposals were made,
Hamas's position would be essentially like that of the United States
and Israel for the past five years, after they came to tolerate some
impoverished form of "statehood". It is fair to describe Hamas as
radical, extremist, and violent, and as a serious threat to peace and a
just political settlement. But the organisation is hardly alone in this
stance.
Elsewhere traditional means of undermining democracy have succeeded.
In Haiti, the Bush administration's favourite "democracy-building
group, the International Republican Institute", worked assiduously to
promote the opposition to President Aristide, helped by the withholding
of desperately needed aid on grounds that were dubious at best. When it
seemed that Aristide would probably win any genuine election,
Washington and the opposition chose to withdraw, a standard device to
discredit elections that are going to come out the wrong way: Nicaragua
in 1984 and Venezuela in December 2005 are examples that should be
familiar. Then followed a military coup, expulsion of the president,
and a reign of terror and violence vastly exceeding anything under the
elected government.
The persistence of the strong line of continuity to the present
again reveals that the United States is very much like other powerful
states. It pursues the strategic and economic interests of dominant
sectors of the domestic population, to the accompaniment of rhetorical
flourishes about its dedication to the highest values. That is
practically a historical universal, and the reason why sensible people
pay scant attention to declarations of noble intent by leaders, or
accolades by their followers.
One commonly hears that carping critics complain about what is
wrong, but do not present solutions. There is an accurate translation
for that charge: "They present solutions, but I don't like them." In
addition to the proposals that should be familiar about dealing with
the crises that reach to the level of survival, a few simple
suggestions for the United States have already been mentioned: 1)
accept the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court and the
World Court; 2) sign and carry forward the Kyoto protocols; 3) let the
UN take the lead in international crises; 4) rely on diplomatic and
economic measures rather than military ones in confronting terror; 5)
keep to the traditional interpretation of the UN Charter; 6) give up
the Security Council veto and have "a decent respect for the opinion of
mankind," as the Declaration of Independence advises, even if power
centres disagree; 7) cut back sharply on military spending and sharply
increase social spending. For people who believe in democracy, these
are very conservative suggestions: they appear to be the opinions of
the majority of the US population, in most cases the overwhelming
majority. They are in radical opposition to public policy. To be sure,
we cannot be very confident about the state of public opinion on such
matters because of another feature of the democratic deficit: the
topics scarcely enter into public discussion and the basic facts are
little known. In a highly atomised society, the public is therefore
largely deprived of the opportunity to form considered opinions.
Another conservative suggestion is that facts, logic, and elementary
moral principles should matter. Those who take the trouble to adhere to
that suggestion will soon be led to abandon a good part of familiar
doctrine, though it is surely much easier to repeat self-serving
mantras. Such simple truths carry us some distance toward developing
more specific and detailed answers. More important, they open the way
to implement them, opportun- ities that are readily within our grasp if
we can free ourselves from the shackles of doctrine and imposed
illusion.
Though it is natural for doctrinal systems to seek to induce
pessimism, hopelessness, and despair, reality is different. There has
been substantial progress in the unending quest for justice and freedom
in recent years, leaving a legacy that can be carried forward from a
higher plane than before. Opportunities for education and organising
abound. As in the past, rights are not likely to be granted by
benevolent authorities, or won by intermittent actions - attending a
few demonstrations or pushing a lever in the personalised quadrennial
extravaganzas that are depicted as "democratic politics". As always in
the past, the tasks require dedicated day-by-day engagement to create -
in part recreate - the basis for a functioning democratic culture in
which the public plays some role in determining policies, not only in
the political arena, from which it is largely excluded, but also in the
crucial economic arena, from which it is excluded in principle. There
are many ways to promote democracy at home, carrying it to new
dimensions. Opportunities are ample, and failure to grasp them is
likely to have ominous repercussions: for the country, for the world,
and for future generations.
This is an edited extract from Failed States by Noam Chomsky
(Hamish Hamilton), £16.99. To buy it for £15.50 (inc p&p), call
Independent Books Direct on 0870 079 8897.