98th Annual Academy Awards - Oscar Picks by Reviews by Matthew
Movie Reviews by Matthew
http://www.reviewsbymatthew.com/Oscar_Picks_by_Reviews_by_Matthew/98th_Annual_Academy_Awards-Oscar_Picks_by_Reviews_by_Matthew.html98th Annual Academy Awards - Oscar Picks by Reviews by Matthew
The 98th Annual Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 15, 2026, and they can’t come soon enough. It’s been a long award season, with strong and acclaimed American films that have generously impacted the international fare, and have kept things largely a two-horse race. Still, I’m excited to see the expected, the surprises, and just how well Horror performs this year.
Note: For those of you who are new to this write-up, there’s a section located on the very last page called, “Oscars at A Glance”. There, you can find a quick list of the winners that I’ve chosen for every category. So now, both of us can play without all the distracting words getting in the way of the bottom line.
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-m-'s: Oscars At A Glance: How many will I get correct ? Totals -? out of 24 picked Category -m-'s Picks The Oscar goes to: Best Picture – “One Battle After Another” Best Director – “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson) Best Actor – “Sinners” (Michael B. Jordan) Best Actress – “Hamnet” (Jessie Buckley) Best Supporting Actor – “One Battle After Another” (Sean Penn) Best Supporting Actress – “Weapons” (Amy Madigan) Best Casting - “Sinners” Best Animated Feature - “KPop Demon Hunters” Best Screenplany (Original) – “Sinners” (Ryan Coogler) Best Screenplay (Adapted) – “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson) Best Art Direction – Best Production Design “Frankenstein” Best Cinematography – “Sinners” Best Film Editing – “One Battle After Another” Best Costume Design – “Frankenstein” Best Makeup – “Frankenstein” Best Original Score – “Sinners” (Ludwig Goransson) Best Original Song – “KPop Demon Hunters” (“Golden”) Best Sound – “F1” Best Visual Effects – “Avatar: Fire and Ash” Best International Feature - “Sentimental Value” Best Documentary (Feature) - “The Perfect Neighbor” Best Documentary (Short Subject) – “All The Empty Rooms” Best Short Film (Animation) – “Butterfly” Best Short Film (Live Action) – “Two People Exchanging Saliva” PICTURE –
“Bugonia” – The least enjoyable film in this category gets, to my mind, an obligatory nomination for being a Yorgos Lanthimos vehicle. Congratulations, but save your water, because it’s all you’re going to get.‘F1” – Continuing to swerve through the mainstream, Joseph Kosinski delivers his second “Best Picture” actioner; however, just like Top Gun: Maverick, it’s not going to happen here. Check in with Sound and Editing, though, to see if they have any checkered flags you could borrow.
“Frankenstein” – I’m a big fan of Kenneth Branagh’s 1994 version, which scored only one Oscar nomination (Makeup). Del Toro’s revisit is, to me, as enjoyable, and is bound to be more rewarded. The film has nine total nominations this year, but is more likely to garner its wins in the technical categories.
“Hamnet” – In a year where more popular films are heavily nominated, I feel the impact surrounding the dourer emotional fare. Sure, Hamnet is gonna get some love tonight, but spare yourself the second depression of a best picture expectation.
“Marty Supreme” – Ranking # 5 in my breakdown. I just can’t find a way to get it into the mix that is this category’s more likely Top 4.
“One Battle After Another” – The favorite by a nose, with that nose being a genre. You can call PTA’s effort a comedy, a drama or an action film as you see fit, what you can’t call it, though, is a horror film. This film’s only competition here is Sinners and Sinners is a horror film. “Horror” is 1 for 97 in this category. That’s a real long shot. Even before this film wins the PGA.
“The Secret Agent” – This is the darkhorse that shouldn’t surprise. Passed over in the International Feature category, its remaining hope is in picking up a Best Actor statue. That would still put it at least one win and five nominations behind Sentimental Value, which isn’t going to win two Best Picture awards tonight either.
“Sentimental Value” – The likely international Oscar winner is going to have a tough time winning two Best Picture awards against the American heavyweights.
“Sinners” – The most lauded film in Oscar history is running neck and neck with PTA’s One Battle After Another. While PTA’s film, in itself, is a deserved winner, Sinners has pulled off a stunning nomination feat here and therefore can’t be discounted. This is most likely the toughest decision of the night, but I don’t expect Sinners to stand tooth to tooth with Silence of the Lambs; the only horror film to ever win this award.
Note: In its ninety-eight-year history, the Academy has only nominated six other horror films for Best Picture: The Exorcist (1973), Jaws (1975), The Silence of the Lambs (1991), The Sixth Sense (1999), Black Swan (2010), and Get Out (2017). Where do you see Sinners on this list?
“Train Dreams” – Forget what you’ve heard said about, Jay Kelly or The Life of Chuck, THIS is the most life affirming film of the year, and my personal favorite. Too small to have a real shot at taking home this top prize, but man, this is a beautiful film.
DIRECTOR –
“Hamnet” – Chloe Zhao is running a dead heat with Joachim Trier. If I’m honest, she’s probably ahead of him, but it would take two massive stumbles, one each from Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler, to garner her a second Best Director Oscar.“Marty Supreme” – Josh Safdie may have produced a fine piece of work here, but he was never going to win.
“One Battle After Another” - Paul Thomas Anderson won the DGA (Director’s Guild Award) which makes this as solid a bet as you can get. Plus, there’s a narrative: he’s overdue…it’s his year…et-al.
“Sentimental Value” - Joachim Trier would be a notable surprise here. The film has nine nominations and could win one acting award, but up against Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler, it’d be quite the deserved shock.
“Sinners” - Ryan Coogler has delivered stunningly with this film, and I’d love to see him win here, but it’s unlikely. That’s okay, he’s an undeniable Best Director winner. It won’t be this year, but he’ll get it done soon enough.
ACTOR –
“Marty Supreme” – Three-time acting nominee Timothee Chalamet is the hot culture bet. A big splash actor who makes award-winning waves every year. His acceptance speech at the SAG awards last year saw him stake a claim to be “one of the best”. There’s no secret he wants this prize, feels entitled to it, actually (see that same SAG speech), and I’m thinking that hurts him. I think the Academy would be reluctantly giving it to him this year. So, why would they? He’s great, every year, so why not make him wait another year, or better yet, for something undeniable? Think they won’t? They’ve treated DiCaprio this way for decades.“One Battle After Another” – Speaking of Leonardo DiCaprio, this year he has the distinction of literally placing in any spot on this list. With a twenty percent chance of being any 1 of the 5, I’m gonna bet against him being in the top spot. That, and “decades” (see above) said, Leonardo’s first Oscar nomination was in 1994. He was nominated a total of five times before they gave him his one and only Oscar in 2016, that’s twenty-two years the Academy made him wait. He’s had two more nominations without a win in the last ten years. Oh yeah. The Academy has no problem treating actors this way.
“Blue Moon” – Three-time acting nominee, Ethan Hawke, is criminally overdue for a win, but isn’t one I feel comfortable picking over the popularity of his remaining challengers. #EverABridesmaid
“Sinners” - Michael B. Jordan deserves this award. Maybe not for this movie, but I’m finding that a hard argument to continually support. He was twice as good in Sinners and has long been under-appreciated. I feel like his SAG win, and his humility on the stage, make a vote for him feel damn good to voters. A win here will literally light the room on fire. #ICanSeeItNow
“The Secret Agent” - Wagner Moura has a strong and legitimate shot here. The beloved film has been passed over in other categories in favor of Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another or Sinners. People like this movie, certainly more than I did, and it’s no stretch of the imagination to expect the Academy to add Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet to its Bridesmaid’s Stable in favor of what would be perceived as a “prestige pick”.
ACTRESS –
“Hamnet” - Jessie Buckley is sweeping the entire award season. This train is Oscar Station-bound.“If I Had Legs I'd Kick You” - Rose Byrne delivers a stunning performance as an unwinding woman in the film. Effectively delivering the descent into substance abuse that Oscar is famous for acknowledging. The fact that there’s less substance to abuse and more relatable realities in the film boosts her chances, but in the end, I’d be surprised if it was enough to overtake Buckley.
“Song Sung Blue” – Regardless of Kate Hudson’s performance, her chances of beating the other contenders are as low as Emma Stone’s.
“Sentimental Value” - Renate Reinsve is the most impressive performer in the film. Absolutely stunning as she delivers the visual and emotional goods of everything verbally expressed in the film. It won’t be enough to win this year, but I’d love to see her in this category again.
“Bugonia” - Emma Stone’s nod here feels like a “bros before hoes” thing; something more given than earned. She’s as good as she always is. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not shaming her, I’m attempting to shame the Academy because Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) should have gotten this spot.
SUPPORTING ACTOR –
“One Battle After Another” - Benicio Del Toro played the comic relief in the film and in another year, one that wasn’t as stacked as this category is, I’d give him a chance. As things stand…I don’t think so.“Frankenstein” - Jacob Elordi won the Critic’s Choice award, but no sole Critic’s Choice Supporting winner (no other precursor wins) has ever gone on to win the Oscar. Statistics, Yo!
“Sinners” - Delroy Lindo earns his overdue first Oscar nomination and stands tall in this race, but is an unlikely winner.
“One Battle After Another” - Sean Penn might have an easier time than Benicio here. His transformation was stronger, but his character was way more unlikeable. Originally, I thought the “Battle Boys” were Splitsville, and then Penn won at BAFTA, and at SAG, so, I’m putting my money here.
“Sentimental Value” - Stellan Skarsgard has been the favorite all season on paper and it’s a worthy performance that ought to be in Best Actor. But he lost the BAFTA and isn’t nominated for SAG meaning the Golden Globe is his only garnered award precursor. The want is strong, but that’s just not enough to commit.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS –
“Sentimental Value” - Elle Fanning is the voice of reason in the film and delivers equitably with her category counterpart. If anything, they split and lose.“Sentimental Value” - Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas is the bridge, or seemingly middle child, in the film and delivers equitably with her category counterpart. If anything, they split and lose.
“Weapons” - Amy Madigan is an all-time favorite of mine, and this, her second Oscar nomination, comes exactly 40 years after the first, for, get this, a film called Twice in a Lifetime. How can you not love this win for her? Even though I’m shaky on legacy wins (see: Demi Moore, Sylvester Stallone, Delroy Lindo, etc), Amy won at both SAG and at the Critics Choice, so you can’t discount her. Want another piece of legacy win trivia? Brendan Frasier (The Whale) was the last actor to win the Oscar with only this combo. Crossing my fingers, toes, eyes, and legs.
“Sinners” - Wunmi Mosaku wins the BAFTA, and we all know the BAFTA beats the Golden Globe; Sorry Teyana. Plus, Sinners is surging late while One Battle After Another has been the expected winner for so long that its prestige is sliding in the face of honoring something different. The BAFTAs have correctly predicted the Oscar winner in eight of the last ten years. The thing about this, though, is that those wins all come with “steamrolling” winners. When the awards are split, it’s anyone’s game. So, I’m going out on a strong limb and say that Wunmi gets her recognition with Delroy Lindo in the Casting category.
“One Battle After Another” - Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe and then lost the BAFTA. I was never comfortable with Teyana as a “shoe-in” win, and it looks like others are seeing things similarly.
CASTING –
“Hamnet” - Nina Gold delivers a cast with one total acting nomination…Obviously, I can’t believe this is a good bet.“Marty Supreme” - Jennifer Vendittiy, and the film, are largely looking to be on the outs. Odessa A’zion was a Supporting Actress hopeful, but didn’t end up making the cut. The film has either got a win for Timothee or nada.
“One Battle After Another” - Cassandra Kulukundis has done an impressive job of peopling this film with big-name talent who’ve scored a lot of acclaim this year. And while it’s a solid pick, I feel like Sinners is going to get the love here in a trade for the Best Picture win.
“The Secret Agent” - Gabriel Domingues also delivers a cast with one total acting nomination…Same answer as Hamnet.
“Sinners” - Francine Maisler has collected the most well-loved cast of the year. And from that standpoint, along with the SAG win for ensemble, I’m gonna give her my vote.
ANIMATED FEATURE –
“Arco” – While having shades of Miyazaki, it’s not actually Miyazaki. People know this.“Elio” – Cute and way better than the media made it out to be. In years past it may have stood a chance.
“KPop Demon Hunters” – Winning the Annie, Critics Choice, Producer’s Guild, and Golden Globe awards demonstrates a clear dominance of the field. Too dominant to bet against.
“Little Amelie or the Character of Rain” – From the trailers, I get a strong impression of spirituality, emotional content, and life-affirming vibes. I’m looking forward to seeing this one. I have a feeling lots of voters are saying that.
“Zootopia 2” – The highest grossing domestic film of 2025, and second-place finisher worldwide, deserves some recognition even if it’s not on the Oscar stage. It took the BAFTA where it competed against Elio and Little Amile only, so do you think it can really beat the NETFLIX Kpop powerhouse? Tough decision, but Zootopia 2 didn’t compete with KPop Demon Hunters theatrically either, and that film is the most watched film in Netflix history. How do these scales work again?
SCREENPLAY ORIGINAL –
“Blue Moon”, Robert Kaplow delivers a wonderfully verbose screenplay that works like a play. It’s a fantastic watch with a strong and delivering cast. It won’t win tonight, but it’s absolutely worthy of this nomination.“It Was Just An Accident”, Jafar Panahi and his film have been honorarily ignored all season long, and I’m not sure why. Expect that to continue.
“Marty Supreme”, Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie just can’t compete with the Ryan Coogler lock.
“Sentimental Value”, Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier deliver a touching and poignant script in a year full of life-affirming films. There’s little here to knock and plenty to acknowledge, and sometimes that’s exactly what nominations are for.
“Sinners” - Before the sun rises, Ryan Coogler wins his first of hopefully many Oscars.
SCREENPLAY ADAPTED –
“Bugonia” – I disliked this movie so much that I don’t care what Will Tracy based his script on. It’s a “No” for me. Note: Based on Jang Joon-hwan’s 2003 film Save the Green Planet!.“Frankenstein” - Guillermo del Toro earns his third writing nomination for a work he’s the perfect winner for. I don’t think it’s likely, but for the man who consistently impresses with his “man is monster” themes a win for this would be storybook-perfect.
“Hamnet”, Chloé Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell are making ripples with their devastatingly emotional work. It sounds cold but this isn’t Shakespeare, and those ripples will be lost in the waves of Paul Thomas Anderson’s more popular film. Unless the voting body believes the Director Oscar is enough for PTA. Nah…
“One Battle After Another” - Paul Thomas Anderson was the foregone conclusion here before the nominations were even announced. No changes to that winning storyline have been made.
“Train Dreams” - Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar have really outdone the novella here. Succinctly delivering on the themes of the material in expressly beautiful and concrete ways. A personal favorite that deserves some “All-Time” list consideration.
PRODUCTION DESIGN / ART DIRECTION –
“Frankenstein” – Absolutely stunning. Gothic and all the Oscar-like. Won the Art Director’s Guild award for Period Film and should stand a head above the Contemporary Film winner, One Battle After Another.“Hamnet” – Inspired but done before. A combination of classic England and the emotion created by looking at Renaissance paintings, but with more dirt; at least that’s the way I take it. You know how when looking at the same thing everybody feels something different? I’m betting that’s the problem here.
“Marty Supreme” – Four-time Oscar nominee, Jack Fisk (There Will Be Blood (2007), The Revenant (2015), Killers of the Flower Moon (2023), The Tree of Life (2011), The Thin Red Line (1998) and Art Director on Badlands (1973), Carrie (1976), and Days of Heaven (1978)), dramatically recreates 1950s New York in award-winning style. It’s clear that he’s “Overdue” but I’m stuck on the “Bridesmaid” label. Somehow, I’m having to come to terms with both labels being relevant this year.
“One Battle After Another” – The film shot early portions of its early scenes in Sacramento, California, where I’m from. As such, it’s cool but less impressive, personally. Still, it’s semi-sprawling, as California is wont to be, but too familiar to believe it’s gonna to beat Frankenstein.
“Sinners” – An early 1900s small town city, country, and highway feel…but that juke-joint, Yo! Combined, it shouldn’t be enough to get it over the classic gothic-ness and ice frozen ship of Frankenstein.
CINEMATOGRAPHY –
“Frankenstein” – Three-time Oscar nominated lenser Dan Laustsen (Shape of Water, Nightmare Alley), has done a splendid job here. A perfectly splendid job, sorry.“Marty Supreme” - Three-time Oscar nominated lenser Darius Khondji (Evita, Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Delicatessen, The City of Lost Children, Se7en, Stealing Beauty, Alien: Resurrection, The Ninth Gate, The Beach, Panic Room, The Ruins, Midnight in Paris, Amour, The Lost City of Z, Uncut Gems, Lisey’s Story, Okja, Mickey 17, Eddington), clearly delivers work worthy of this award. Why the heck hasn’t this happened yet?
“One Battle After Another” - Michael Bauman receives his first Oscar nomination in a year full of likely challengers. Yes, he won the BAFTA and the Cinematographer’s Guild award, but they’ve only been right half the time in the last forty years when duplicating the Oscar win. That may be recognition enough.
“Sinners” - Autumn Durald Arkapaw, is the fourth woman to be nominated in this category and the first woman of color. Who doesn’t love this narrative?
“Train Dreams” - Adolpho Veloso, delivered the most beautiful film of the year. Keep your eyes on him. This loss kind of hurts me.
FILM EDITING –
“F1” – Lost the ACE to Sinners and now can’t catch the lead cars.“Marty Supreme” – Lost the ACE to One Battle After Another and is looking to sit the whole evening’s affair on the bench.
“One Battle After Another” – Wins the ACE award for Comedy and then the BAFTA. Look, I don’t necessarily love it, but everyone is picking this to win. #WhosTheLemmingNow?
“Sentimental Value” – With so much “action” going on in the other nominees, I can’t comfortably pick the family drama.
“Sinners” – Wins the ACE award for Drama and then nothing else. I’d be happier with a win here, but it feels unlikely.
COSTUME –
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” – Let me get this straight, the computer rendered film is nominated for best costumes? Who gets the sewing credit?“Frankenstein” – Winning the Costume Guild award is not a lock-type precursor, but it did beat both Hamnet and Sinners in a year no other Oscar nominees were present. I don’t think any of that matters anyway. Pick any single frame of the film, none of the other nominees even come close.
“Hamnet” – England, Late 1500s Elizabethan. Dirt is not a costume. #ThatsALie
“Marty Supreme” – New York, 1952 Americana. The least interesting winner of the lot. Sure, it’d be a surprise but not as surprising as the conversations that’ll start if Avatar wins.
“Sinners” – Mississippi, 1930s Americana. Completely avoiding flash, and trading dirt for dust, but dust with some style. The men look sharp here but I’m not seeing that, and the dance sequence, getting Sinners over the top.
MAKEUP –
“Frankenstein” - This and Sinners were running neck and neck here until Frankenstein won the BAFTA. I think I’m going with this one here because of Jacob Elordi’s performance. The combo that delivers emotion through the makeup is the stuff that wins actors awards. See: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), maybe Amy Madigan (Weapons), Ha-Ha! Jacob Elordi may not win but this sure as lightning is.“Kokuho” – Kabuki makeup, alone, does not an Oscar winner make.
“Sinners” – This and Frankenstein are running neck and neck here… but Sinners’ makeup has more to do with shock and awe than with the actor underneath. Maybe that’s oversimplifying, but Jacob Elordi’s performance tips the scales.
“The Smashing Machine” – I’d like to believe in the chances of a biopic this year but that feels almost like a bygone era. I’m sure it’s not, but it might as well be for a film with no other nominations to its credit.
“The Ugly Stepsister” – A leftover from The Substance nomination last year? Case or not, this has no chance.
ORIGINAL SCORE –
“Bugonia” – Two-time Oscar nominee, Jerskin Fendrix (Poor Things), does some…wait, it’s Bugonia. I don’t care.“Frankenstein” - Alexandre Desplat delivers the gothic and haunting experience one expects from the title. It’s easy to be a fan of this score but it doesn’t strike me as something unexpectedly special in a way that wins this award.
“Hamnet” - Max Richter (Arrival, Ad Astra, Mary Queen of Scots) has a solid but arguably unfamiliar filmography. The nomination may help in future endeavors, but we’ll have to wait and see about that, won’t we.
“One Battle After Another” – Three-time Oscar nominee Jonny Greenwood (Power of the Dog, Phantom Thread) isn’t expected to get over the hump this year, but I’d say he’s a reasonably close second…maybe third. I don’t know.
“Sinners” - Ludwig Goransson won his first Oscar for Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther, expect this teaming to strike gold again tonight. Popularity sells; I guess.
ORIGINAL SONG –
“Diane Warren: Relentless” - "Dear Me". [Music and Lyric by Diane Warren] This is the strongest song Diane has had in this race in quite some time. Maybe the seventeenth time really is the charm.“KPop Demon Hunters” - "Golden". [Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park] There’s no doubt the song and message are strong. And if it wins the Animated Feature Oscar, which it should, it could be even stronger. There’s momentum here that the Sinners song doesn’t have. It also won a Grammy, Golden Globe and Critics Choice award.
“Sinners” - "I Lied To You". [Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson] The simple blues track morphs into an amalgamation of musical influences impressive enough to pierce the veil between life and death. That should otherwise solidify into an Oscar statue and see it become as iconic as the scene where it makes its filmic appearance. I’m sold…just not on a win.
“Viva Verdi!” - "Sweet Dreams Of Joy". [Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike] Ana Marie Martinez’s soprano is solid, but the operatic nature of the song is a tougher sell when planning a genre-level theft against vampires or demon hunters.
"Train Dreams" - "Train Dreams". [Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave] There is no light without darkness. No good without evil. No destiny without fate. From beginning to end, embracing all, Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner translate the sun and moon of Amor Fati into the haunting dream of every beautiful life. I love everything about this song, and film, including its losses…That’s Amor Fati.
SOUND (Combined Sound Editing and Sound Mixing Categories) –
“F1” – History says that racing movies don’t generally win this award (not enough Boom, I guess), but I’m not impressed enough by any one of the other nominees to pick them over the seemingly loudest movie in the category. Vroom Vroom!“Frankenstein” – Grrr…Boof…Crash….Aaaaah!
“One Battle After Another” – It’s hard to believe but this film ranks last amongst these nominees on Gold Derby’s Oscar Leaderboard with 0.87%. Wow!
“Sinners” – If the viscera doesn’t get you, the music sure as hell ought to. It’s those two things that could put it ahead of the “Vroom Vroom”. Remember, I said “could”.
“Sirat” – Equivalent to a best acting award since the sound of the film is most often described as a main character. As welcome as it is for supporters of the film to see this nod, I’m not expecting a win here. Overcoming both Sinners and F1 is a Sisyphus-ian task to begin with, much less while in the trance-like-raver state this audio is built to put audiences into.
VISUAL EFFECTS –
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” – With a worldwide monetary haul one-half of the first film’s gross, it’s beginning to look a lot like Avatar is failing to interest or impress. Still, with these as the only other options…Could be a hat trick for the franchise. Most everybody else thinks so…Lemmings.“F1” – I hear you, I hear you, but I can’t see you.
“Jurassic World Rebirth” – Did someone lose a big lizard in my back yard? Oscar!...Oscar…! Nope. It doesn’t look like there’s anybody here but us chickens.
“The Lost Bus” – The Loss Bus?
“Sinners” – Twinsies! If they go for it, Academy members get an opportunity here to vote for a more prestigious film in a category that’s generally dominated by otherwise bad movies. Can’t commit to the pick and not sure it’d be the right call, but man…who still wants to vote for Avatar?
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM –
“The Secret Agent” - Brazil. This is the wild card winner here. Not a dark horse at all, but one the industry is taking very seriously, so much so that it has a potential winner in the Best Actor category. Be that as it may, its nominations only total four and Best Actor is the only category it’s not competing with Sentimental Value in. That doesn’t bode well.“It Was Just An Accident” - France. The film, from multi-award-winning festival great, Jarfar Panahi, has been on a downward slope since its Palme D’Or win at the Venice Film Festival. The outspoken Iranian filmmaker, who’s been imprisoned for his art in his home country, was expected to garner a platform at the Golden Globes, where he would have gotten face time with possible voters who may not have been familiar with him or his work. That didn’t happen, and things have only gotten quieter concerning his film ever since.
“Sentimental Value” - Norway. With nine total nominations, including every major category, four in the acting categories, directing, writing, editing and best picture, this race should be over.
“Sirat” – Spain. The film certainly delivered but it wasn’t what audiences were expecting. That’s not always a bad thing but this one was a downer with sound so good it wasn’t easy to forget.
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” - Tunisia. I don’t really know anything about awards garnered on the festival circuit, but it seems notable that this film won nine at the Venice Film Festival. That speaks comfortably for its inclusion here, right? Maybe not, and this is notable too; it lost the Best Film award to an American film (Father Mother Sister Brother) that garnered no Academy Award nominations and no other films from this category were nominated against it in that festival. Notable enough to not expect it
BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE) –
“The Alabama Solution” – A well-done prison documentary that exemplifies the horrendous conditions of Alabama prisons and the determined fight of the convicted men worthy of their, and our, humanity. Both timely and timeless, but I don’t believe it has a chance to surpass the BAFTA winner and the NETFLIX powerhouse.“Come See Me In the Good Light” – Producing a healthy amount of joy and respect, this documentary details both the high and lowlights of the three-year cancer journey of poet Andrea Gibson. Effectively introducing audiences to a voice of mostly humble strength and painfully grateful perspective. I think this would be a good winner; I’m just not seeing Andrea’s persona rising above of the poetic under/mid-ground.
“Cutting Through Rocks” – This documentary sees the wonderfully progressive statements and glorious empowerment of one woman’s ascension in Middle Eastern politics. Breaking ground for sure, but probably not breaking through.
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin” – This BAFTA winner has a near forty-nine percent chance of making the Oscar stage. Anyone hoping a PGA win would help decide this vote is out of luck. PGA went with an American film about an American icon (My Mom Jayne) that wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar. What does that tell you?
“The Perfect Neighbor” – The wildly popular NETFLIX documentary won the Critics’ Choice and ACE Eddie. Giving it the coveted fifty-one percent chance of winning. It’s an American film concerning a serious American problem and has probably been seen by more voters. Not that that equals a win, but in the time remaining are the undecided voters screening this or the subtitled film about Putin? The betting begins now.
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT) –
“All the Empty Rooms” – NETFLIX scores big here with Emmy winner, Stave Hartman’s bold and fearlessly positive remembrance of all the children who’ve lost their lives in the United States’ school shooting tragedies. This one got me good, won the ACE Eddie, and is the most impactful film of the category.“Armed Only With A Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” – A frontrunner here, the film briefly explores the life and death of a war correspondent. I originally thought it delivered the perfect pitch and message both in quantifying a life and therefore qualifying for Oscar gold. Then I saw All the Empty Rooms and remembered “qualifying” to race doesn’t mean you’ve won anything.
“Children No More: Were and Are Gone” – A film showing the silent vigils/protests honoring and creating awareness of the unacceptable number of children who’ve been killed during the fighting in Gaza. It paints some stark and effective dichotomies but remains a story without an ending. And that’s sadder and more discomforting than not winning an Oscar.
“The Devil Is Busy” – This “day-in-the-life” of a security guard at a Georgia abo*tion clinic has some merit but I’m not convinced it’s enough to garner a win here.
“Perfectly A Strangeness” – A largely silent and beautifully shot film about donkeys and an observatory. Sounds like my kind of strange. Oscar’s, though? Probably not.
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATION) –
“Butterfly” – The oil painted animation has the dual shine of being effective as both a posh and childish looking film. Regardless, the story, briefly overviewing the life of the Jewish-French swimming legend, Alfred Nakache feels like the perfect fit for a Reading Rainbow episode. I didn’t care for it, but Gold Derby is predicting this one at over 74%, so I feel forced into the pick. Note: Oscar trends in this category favor winners that boast the following: English-speaking, no dialogue, and/or animals. Somebody wanna tell the prognosticators at Gold Derby about this?“Forevergreen” – The impressive wood-carve style computer animation and a classic broken and then mended hearts theme is capped with a message so on-the-nose that it detracts from its winning chances. Be that as it may, the morality tale plays to children without incident or saccharine.
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls” – Rendering both emotion and creepiness with its brand of stop-motion animation that reminds me of similar Christmas specials of the late ‘60s and early’70s. Has potential, but I wouldn’t count on it. Note: A stop-motion film has not won this award since 2006.
“Retirement Plan” – An interesting premise, most likely meant to affirm living life in the “now”. Doesn’t really do much other than make you feel bad instead of promoting the seriousness of its message. Even with Domhnall Gleeson’s (About Time) narration, I can’t see this one winning.
“The Three Sisters” – The only one I didn’t get to see is also the one that is not being touted as a frontrunner in the race.
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) –
“Butcher’s Stain” – The only film of the group that has a timely real-world narrative. As such, it’s not as enjoyable as the other nominees, but that never stopped a film from winning.“A Friend of Dorothy” – The cute and effectively emotional short is something I’d expect to have a good shot at winning. Trouble here is that this ought to be a feature. Sure, it strikes an emotional chord or two, has strong and memorable bookendings, but misses out some by not filling in the gaps with character depth and what the film really wants to say. I’m predicting its number two with a bullet?
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama” – This cleverly cheeky and entertaining sendup of women’s health is like a great SNL sketch. Set up like a Jane Austen romance, it sees a young woman who’s about to be engaged, begin her monthly period. The crux of the film then becomes whether or not to explain the realities of her circumstance to her historically clueless suitor. This is hilarious stuff, almost juvenile, and is really well produced. It’s a fun and light-hearted pick that would truly be a real surprise winner. #Message
“The Singers” – NETFLIX delivers this emotional piece with a dark beauty that supports the emotional male. Given that it’s on NETFLIX, only eighteen minutes long, and delivers a stunning set of performances, it may have an upper hand but…
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” – I loved it like I loved A Portrait of a Lady on Fire. This is clearly the more eccentric version (kissing is illegal and is punishable by death), but those eccentricities feel actualized and hauntingly support the themes and world-building of the film. Oscar winner Jullian Moore (Still Alive) and Isabelle Huppert (Elle) are executive producers. I’m betting that the film’s quality and heavy industry ties push it over the top. #KeepItWeirdOscar
And that’s a Wrap, Yo! Seven weeks and almost fifty-nine hundred words later, the picks are officially in. I may be tired, but never that tired. See you all Sunday night.
-m-
Turn Down The Lights, Turn Up The Sound. Matthew Gilbert © 1999-2026 All Rights Reserved.
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