Mig-29m Egypt
Kylee Evancho
The United States has provided significant military and economic assistance to Egypt since the late 1970s. Successive U.S. administrations have routinely justified aid to Egypt as an investment in regional stability, built primarily on long-running cooperation with the Egyptian military and on sustaining the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty.
U.S. policymakers are now debating complex questions about the future of U.S.-Egypt relations, and these debates and events in Egypt are shaping consideration of appropriations and authorization legislation in the 114th Congress.
In 2016, President Abdel Fatah al Sisi and his military backers have continued to pursue their stated goals of relieving economic woes, rooting out corruption, and restoring domestic security. Opposition Islamist and secular political forces view Sisi's regime differently; they portray the Sisi government as the reconstitution of an authoritarian order that is employs brutal tactics to quash dissent while rhetorically paying heed to the themes (corruption,1 inequality, and indignity) that sparked the 2011 uprising. Public political activism has died down considerably since the military's ouster of former president Mohammed Morsi in July 2013. This may be due to both a crackdown against dissent (unauthorized public protests have been banned since 2013) and public fatigue from domestic instability.
The Egyptian government's attempt to spark economic growth in order to stave off public unrest has had mixed results. On the one hand, Egypt has secured billions of dollars in aid from Arab Gulf States and, since the government subsidizes fuel, the budget has benefitted from lower oil prices. In 2015, Egypt's economy grew at its fastest rate (4.2%) since 2010. On the other hand, the government is facing a shortage of dollar-denominated currency,2 which is affecting its ability to import food and fuel.3 Tourism receipts, a major source of foreign exchange,4 declined by 15% in 2015, as concern over terrorism, particularly in the Sinai, has deterred foreign visits.5 Revenue from the Suez Canal, another major source of foreign exchange, also declined by 5% in 2015, despite a multi-billion dollar investment in its expansion. Egypt also has been affected by global economic problems. European nations, Egypt's primary trading partners, have not increased their investments in Egypt to match previous years.
In the international and regional arena, Egypt has begun to play a more active diplomatic role than in previous years. It is one of 10 nonpermanent members of the United Nations Security Council (its term ending in 2017) and has played a key role in trying to broker a unity government in Libya. Nevertheless, it has played a minimal role in countering the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, more focusing more on countering terrorist threats emanating from Sinai-based groups, such as Sinai Province of the Islamic State (SP).
Overall, the return of authoritarian rule that began with the military's July 2013 takeover has left U.S. policymakers in a quandary. President Obama and members of his Administration continue to express the view that authoritarian governance and the denial of basic human and political rights create conditions conducive to the growth of violent extremism. On the other hand, maintaining a partnership with the government of Egypt is still viewed as important for goals of regional stability and security. Egypt's government describes its Islamist adversaries as terrorists and portrays U.S. attempts to dictate terms or impose conditions related to Egypt's internal affairs as nave, malign, or both.6 As an alternative to its traditional reliance on the United States, Egypt's rulers have welcomed the support of like-minded Arab governments in the Gulf region who view political Islam as an existential threat to their systems of governance, as well as Russia and China.
Formally, Egypt is a republic, governed by a constitution7 that was approved in a national referendum in January 2014. In June 2014, Sisi (former Field Marshal and Minister of Defense) was elected president, garnering 96.91% of the vote amidst a political atmosphere that the Obama Administration and some foreign observers termed "restrictive."8
Parliamentary elections were held in late 2015 for Egypt's House of Representatives, its single-chamber legislature comprised of 596 members.9 Voter turnout was officially 28% and, according to Democracy International, which observed the elections, "Overall, the wider political climate of repression prevented these elections from meeting international standards or being considered democratic. There are greater restrictions on the rights of Egyptians today than at the time of the last legislative elections."10 The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has maintained that the elections were a success, noting that "Egypt has finally elected and convened its legislature after several years of turmoil, through a transparent, free and fair electoral process, thereby completing the final phase of its political transition. This demonstrates to the world that Egypt is on the right track, building and consolidating its democratic institutions and moving towards increased political stability."11 The U.S. State Department issued a statement on the parliamentary elections, saying, "On conclusion of Egypt's parliamentary elections, the United States looks forward to the seating of the new parliament and to our continued engagement with the Egyptian Government and people. We note preliminary statements by domestic and international observers that Egypt's Higher Electoral Commission administered the elections professionally and in accordance with Egyptian laws, although we remain concerned about low voter turnout and limited participation by opposition parties."12
Observers have characterized parliament as dominated by Sisi loyalists.13 His supporters have coalesced into an alliance of 400 members called "Support Egypt." Parliamentarians with Islamist leanings are represented by 12 lawmakers who hail from the Salafist Nour Party. The Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed and its members banned from participation in politics.
One of parliament's first orders of business (per the constitution) is to review many of the decrees made by the executive in its absence (parliament had been dissolved since June 2012). On January 17, 2016, by a vote of 457 votes to 24, parliament approved the antiterrorism law, which details sentences for various terrorism-related crimes,14 shields the police from penalties for "proportionate use of force," and fines journalists for contradicting the government's version of any terrorist attack.15 When the law was initially decreed by President Sisi in August 2015, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department remarked, "We are concerned that some measures in Egypt's new antiterrorism law could have a significant detrimental impact on human rights and fundamental freedoms, including due process safeguards, freedom of association, and freedom of expression."16
Certain practices of President Sisi's government and the security apparatus have been contentious; many Egyptians and foreign observers have accused the government of committing serious abuses of human rights against a broad spectrum of opponents, both secular and Islamist. President Sisi has at times publicly apologized for police abuses against citizens and sexual assaults against Egyptian women. The ongoing crackdown against dissent may have come not only with a significant human cost, but also at a sizeable cost to the country's international reputation, particularly in the West. Many observers had hoped that the 2011 uprising against Mubarak would change Egypt's human rights trajectory for the better.
In June 2015, the State Department released its Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2014. The report notes that in Egypt, "The most significant human rights problems were excessive use of force by security forces, including unlawful killings and torture; the suppression of civil liberties, including societal and government restrictions on freedoms of expression and the press and the freedom of peaceful assembly and association; and limitations on due process in trials."17
In February 2016, the body of Giulio Regeni, a Cambridge PhD student from Italy, was found on the outskirts of Cairo bearing signs of torture. Regeni had been missing for a week, and many observers have suspected that he was detained and beaten by internal security forces because of his alleged writings for a left-wing Italian newspaper and for his ties to labor unions. Regeni, who had published under a pseudonym, had criticized President Sisi directly in several pieces. Italy and Egypt have recently expanded economic ties, most notably after Italian energy company Eni discovered a super-giant gas field off the Egyptian coast in August 2015. According to one unnamed Italian official, "No one on the Italian side wants to question the deals that we were working on. [But] the Egyptian authorities have to be clear about the murder if they don't want there to be a chill in the bilateral relationship."21 Egyptian authorities have rejected allegations of involvement by security forces in the death of Regeni.
One of the biggest concerns for Egyptian and regional stability over the past several years has been the Sinai Peninsula, where a mix of radicalized indigenous Bedouin Arabs, foreign fighters, and Palestinian militants from neighboring Gaza have formed terrorist cells and targeted both Egypt and Israel. Terrorists belonging to the Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP)22 have repeatedly attacked military bases and police checkpoints, killing hundreds of Egyptian soldiers. Egypt has declared a state of emergency in northern Sinai, where most of the attacks take place.
On October 31, 2015, a Russian passenger jet (Metrojet Flight 9268) exploded in mid-air over the Sinai Peninsula, killing all 224 passengers aboard. The Egyptian government has been circumspect over the cause of the crash, while several foreign governments, including the United States, have strongly suggested that the detonation of a hidden "improvised explosive device" most likely brought down the flight. Sinai Province, the Islamic State's Egyptian affiliate, has claimed responsibility for the crash, saying it was in retaliation for Russia's military deployment to Syria.
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