Observations and Forecasts:
1 – River levels are up close to action stage and after leveling off from this weekend’s snowmelt are starting to rise again.
2 – A serious band of thunderstorms passed through mostly north and northeast of the city around 8 AM today.
3 – Another serious band of thunderstorms is passing mostly to the south of us at this time.
4 – There will be clearing and warming after these storms pass through.
5 – Warm temperatures will provide for considerable snow melt today.
6 – Cooler temperatures the rest of the week should slow snowmelt.
7 – Another band of thunderstorms is expected to go through overnight from 11PM to 4 AM and could have heavy rain.
8 – Hydrologic forecasts have the river approaching flood stage by late tomorrow.
Assessment:
1 – The rain earlier this morning affected the primary watershed of the Winooski River. We should be seeing the effects of this rain starting in several hours.
2 – The impact of additional snow melt in that same area will start hitting us again in 4 to 5 hours.
3 – The current rain to our south will have much more limited impact, though the Dog River could add significant flow below the city.
4 – Rain overnight could add to flow just when current storm and snowmelt runoff are reaching the peak.
5 - Flood level (possible) at Cemetery Curve will mean cellar flooding in Montpelier.
6 – Two and a Half Feet above flood level (very unlikely) there will mean street flooding in Montpelier.
7 – We should expect on Tuesday to have cellar flooding along the North Branch and could have parking lot flooding in low areas.