Hurricane Irene Update

[Nick Daniels]

HURRICANE IRENE UPDATE 3 - FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE.
August 28, 2011
William J. Fraser, City Manager
2:30 PM

Most recent information from National Weather Service is that Irene, now classified as a Tropical Storm, will likely track directly over Central Vermont. Current forecast is for rain to continue until 7:00 PM. There may be one additional burst of very heavy rain between now and then. High winds are expected to continue until 10 PM. Total rainfall is projected at about 4 inches, less than originally forecast.

Current modeling shows the Winooski river reaching the 15 foot flood stage between 7 PM and 8 PM, cresting at approximately 17 feet at around 2 AM on Monday and falling back below flood stage by noon on Monday. National Weather Service will update the river modeling based on actual rainfall information. As a comparison, the river crested at 17.59 feet during the May flood.

Gallison Hill Road is being evaluated for likely closure. All other roads are open, no trees are down and no power outages are reported. 

Governor Shumlin announced that non-essential state employees should report to work at 10 AM on Monday and that status will be updated by the State at 7:30 AM. State employees in the Capital Complex in Montpelier today are being asked to evacuate the area now.

All residential evacuation notices have been delivered.

HURRICANE IRENE UPDATE 2 - FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE.
August 28, 2011
William J. Fraser

The City of Montpelier Incident Command Center and Emergency Operations Center opened at 8:00 AM. Precautionary evacuation notices have been served for Lower State Street and are in the process of being served in the Elm Street area. 

The City has been notified by National Weather Service that the Winooski River is projected to exceed flood stage at some point after midnight. This forecast has not changed. 

All residents and businesses are urged to take all flood precautions including clearing basements, turning off power and evacuating if necessary. It will be much easier and safer to do this now during daylight before the worst of the storm hits and before flooding has actually started.

The following is from the National Weather Service:


At this point, it looks like the projected forecast we have had the last couple of days is unfolding as planned (which is both good and bad news). So it's time to buckle up and get ready for today's bumpy ride.

Irene just made landfall near NYC --- and it will accelerate northeast across western CT, western MA and up the Connecticut River Valley by this evening. By Monday morning it will be long gone.

Rainfall (see attached for graphic of total expected rainfall):
Rain has already overspread all but the Saint Lawrence Valley. Rainfall rates have been averaging up to 1/2" per hour, and totals in far southern Vermont are already over 2 inches. Looking at observations farther south, there has been a large area of rainfall amounts on the order of 5 to 7 inches, so our forecast appears to be on track. Lesser amounts will fall across the Saint Lawrence Valley.

The only slight modifications to the forecast have been to shift the heavy rain slightly west, so even the eastern side of the Adirondacks (Clinton, Essex counties) will get in the heavy rainfall.

The rain will be coming to an end late this evening across far southern Vermont, and a little after midnight across northern Vermont & NY. 

Flooding:

We expect flash flooding problems to occur just about anywhere in Vermont and in eastern portions of NY -- the main threat times would be from early afternoon through the evening hours. 

No major changes to the river forecasts as well. Most rivers in Vermont will begin rising rapidly late this afternoon and evening -- and peaking into the moderate to major flood stage levels Monday morning. 

With the updates to increase rainfall across Clinton & Essex counties, we will be getting new river forecast guidance later this morning -- but I would anticipate that this may result in additional rivers in that area going into flood tonight as well.

Looking farther ahead -- although rivers will fall below flood stage by late Monday, flows will remain high for several days. With expected sunny/dry weather, we will all need to get the message out that the rivers and streams are still dangerous.

Winds: (see attached graphic for expected maximum wind gusts)

Observations from locations from the Hudson Valley southward do indeed show a large area where winds are gusting near 50 mph. We still expect these winds to spread north over the next few hours -- with the strongest winds generally occurring from mid-afternoon through late evening. At that time we anticipate frequent wind gusts over 50mph, with maximum gusts over 60 mph across Lake Champlain -- the higher elevations and eastern sections of Vermont. Winds will initially be comgin from the northeast and turning north and eventually northwest by late evening as Irene moves by.

We expect Flash Flood Warnings to be issued across much of the area by early this afternoon, which would likely continue into the early overnight hours. River Flood warnings would probably be needed by this evening and continue through Monday.