Australian property market is toast - property investors beware
6 views
Skip to first unread message
John
Sep 24, 2015, 2:41:58 AM9/24/15
to MonitoringTheMadness
All,
As usual, available time is limited but I need to get this brief note out.
With the usual caveats that timing turning points in trends is more difficult than predicting their trajectories, I'm officially ringing the bell on the Australian property market.
Everything is finally falling into place. As I mentioned years ago, Sydney and Melbourne were always going to be the last holdouts of strength, but now I'm seeing weakness creep in to these markets. Given the financial-tsunamis-in-waiting due to the global easy-money debt mega-bubble, the long-awaited time of reckoning for this spectacular once-in-a-century property bubble has come.
I'm very confident that there is no government of business manoeuvre that can meaningfully arrest these events from unfolding now. It's now just a matter of time. I would be very surprised if it's not front-page news sometime in the next 6 months or so.
If it were entirely up to me, I would be selling every last property I own right now - even my own residence. Actually, I would have sold already. The market is already showing signs of significant thinning. And of course (and as expected) Western Australia is already in all-out distress.
If you could see what I see coming down the pipeline, you'd understand. In the absolute best case (which is extremely unlikely) property prices will flatline for many, many years. In the worst case, prices can drop 50% - 70%. It all depends on many factors and how they interact with one another. This will not be your ordinary "correction".
If you've taken on significant debt and your financial situation depends on property prices rising (or at least staying flat), I fear for your financial future.
Reminder - if you want to "read what I'm reading", I keep a record of all the notable pages/articles/blog entries I come across HERE. Some of the stuff I record there is behind paywalls - so if you don't subscribe to that particular publication you will unfortunately not be able to read the particular article. I sometimes attach notes to those articles (to record key quotes from the articles and make comments). Also please note that my recording of a particular page/article does not necessarily mean I agree with what the author is saying.
All the best,
John
As usual, available time is limited but I need to get this brief note out.
With the usual caveats that timing turning points in trends is more difficult than predicting their trajectories, I'm officially ringing the bell on the Australian property market.
Everything is finally falling into place. As I mentioned years ago, Sydney and Melbourne were always going to be the last holdouts of strength, but now I'm seeing weakness creep in to these markets. Given the financial-tsunamis-in-waiting due to the global easy-money debt mega-bubble, the long-awaited time of reckoning for this spectacular once-in-a-century property bubble has come.
I'm very confident that there is no government of business manoeuvre that can meaningfully arrest these events from unfolding now. It's now just a matter of time. I would be very surprised if it's not front-page news sometime in the next 6 months or so.
If it were entirely up to me, I would be selling every last property I own right now - even my own residence. Actually, I would have sold already. The market is already showing signs of significant thinning. And of course (and as expected) Western Australia is already in all-out distress.
If you could see what I see coming down the pipeline, you'd understand. In the absolute best case (which is extremely unlikely) property prices will flatline for many, many years. In the worst case, prices can drop 50% - 70%. It all depends on many factors and how they interact with one another. This will not be your ordinary "correction".
If you've taken on significant debt and your financial situation depends on property prices rising (or at least staying flat), I fear for your financial future.
Reminder - if you want to "read what I'm reading", I keep a record of all the notable pages/articles/blog entries I come across HERE. Some of the stuff I record there is behind paywalls - so if you don't subscribe to that particular publication you will unfortunately not be able to read the particular article. I sometimes attach notes to those articles (to record key quotes from the articles and make comments). Also please note that my recording of a particular page/article does not necessarily mean I agree with what the author is saying.
All the best,
John
Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages