http://www.mongodb.org/display/DOCS/Choosing+a+Shard+Key#ChoosingaShardKey-GridFS
In the future (next version) you will be able to shard on
[files_id,n], instead of just files_id which should help a good deal
if you have varying file sizes.
https://jira.mongodb.org/browse/SERVER-3746
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This is on the sharding side of things and the default is 200/64 MB depending on the version (pre 2.0).
If the shard key range chunk can not be split then you will probably get larger diferences in storage size even though the number of chunks are balanced.