Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Joel Skousen World Affairs Brief Feb 25 2022
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RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE
This past Wednesday Ukraine was invaded from three directions by Russian forces in a combined attack that finally settled all of the arguments around the world about whether Russia would invade Ukraine proper or be satisfied with occupying the two separatist regions of Donbas–Donetsk and Luhansk, which they had already sent troops into earlier in the week. As I predicted, the attack came from troops north of Kiev in Belarus, and to the south in Crimea in a pincers attack, in addition to the main force from the East. It appears Putin’s intent is to completely destroy Ukraine’s military capacity so that he can control Ukraine as a vassal state without having to destroy cities or occupy the country directly. He will have to control Ukraine’s borders and airports so that the West cannot rearm Ukraine if Putin claims she is still a sovereign nation—which will be a sham. Putin went to great lengths to construct a rationale of “self-defense” for the invasion based upon a series of lies about how Ukraine was attacking Donbas and Luhansk, when in fact, it has always been Russia fomenting and instigating any unrest in these areas, and it was Russian artillery forces that recently fired upon the Ukrainian forces to start an artillery duel that Putin could use to justify the larger attack. That false (and thinly veiled) rationale is still being used to justify the destruction of Ukraine’s military so that “it can no longer threaten the two breakaway regions.” Although the media will not say it, Russia’s claimed support for separatist movements is highly hypocritical and does not extend to any group trying to flee his control, as proven by his sending troops into Kazakhstan to silence the independence movement there—billed as mere social unrest over fuel prices.
Putin’s Threatening Message to the West
As usual CNN is the most favored news agency for the latest reports from government and access to the front lines. And they need it: They have been such an obvious shill for government and embroiled in so many scandals of perversion that their viewership dropped off a cliff last year. Here is their summary of Putin’s speech to Ukraine and the West as the invasion unfolded:
The two self-proclaimed "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, in the breakaway Ukrainian region of Donbas, which he had officially recognized as independent less than two days before, had "turned to Russia with a request for help," he said. To answer that call he was launching a "special military operation." Its purpose: to "demilitarize" and "denazifiy" Ukraine.
As in America all so-called “Nazi” instigators are plants by intelligence services. Ukraine was no exception as I covered in the World Affairs Brief in 2014, during the Maidan revolution. The Russian secret services created the neo NAZI threat to demonize the opposition, and now they are using what they created to justify this military invasion.
Within minutes, Russian missiles began hitting targets in Ukraine. "Our actions are self-defense against threats," he told his fellow Russians, claiming Moscow had no plans to occupy Ukraine. "We do not plan to impose ourselves on anyone," he insisted.
Putin may not want to fully occupy Ukraine, due to the costs and bad press that such a heavy-handed move would engender, but he certainly intends to impose his will on Ukraine, once it is “demilitarized.”
Putin described the "special military operation" in limited terms, to protect people living in Donbas who, he claimed, had been subjected to "genocide," a charge that Ukraine has strenuously denied. But in the next breath, he lashed out more broadly: "NATO supports Ukrainian neo-Nazis ... our actions are self-defense against threats."
Then, in an extraordinary passage, he spoke directly to members of Ukraine's military, at that very moment in the crosshairs of the Russian military. Addressing them as "dear comrades," he told them they had taken an "oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people, and not to the anti-people junta that is robbing Ukraine and abuses those same people."
"Don't follow its criminal orders!" he demanded. "I urge you to lay down your weapons and go home."
As he has done so many times before [falsely], Putin claimed Russia had no choice but to defend itself. With a hard-edged tone in his voice, he seemed to threaten the US, Europe and NATO which, in just a few minutes, would witness his armed forces opening fire on Ukraine, something the Kremlin had consistently dismissed as western "hysterics."
Then comes the military threat to the West if they dare intervene:
"Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so, to create threats for our country, for our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences that you have never experienced in your history.
"We are ready for any development of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made." Putin, who for years had criticized the West for ignoring his complaints about NATO's expansion toward Russia's borders, was finally striking back with fury. "I hope," he concluded [in] his short address, "that I have been heard."
Why Ukraine is of Strategic Importance to Russia: This site lists all of the huge agricultural, and strategic energy and mineral resources of Ukraine that Russia must control before going to war with the West in it’s quest for global hegemony.
How the Invasion Began
The prelude was set at the beginning of the week when Russia gave official recognition to Donetsk and Luhansk as separate governmental entities from Ukraine. The next day both breakaway regimes requested Russian security assistance allowing Putin to send in an occupying or “defensive force” of ground troops. They had no intention of staying in defensive positions.
At 5 AM local time, on Wednesday, after a very aggressive speech aimed at justify the coming attack on Ukraine proper, Putin ordered a "special military operation" against Ukraine’s military. Invasion forces, which had already begun earlier to leave their staging areas for the jumping off point were marked with special invasion code letters (“K” or “V” etc.) painted on the sides of armor and vehicles in white, depending on the battle sector they were assigned to.
As I also predicted, it began with standoff missile attacks (mostly Kalibr cruise missiles and rockets totaling 160 missile strikes as of yesterday) on command and control facilities, air fields, anti-aircraft defense sites, and other key targets in order to blind Ukraine’s military and deny Ukraine control of the skies. All of Ukraine’s defensive radar sites were hit by either cruise missiles of special anti-radiation missiles designed to detect radar signals and home in on them. Despite Putin’s denial of targeting civilians, many have been killed in the bombing of Kharkiv and cities.
The US military is watching and eavesdropping on all of Russia’s moves, and especially concentrating on Russia’s use of electronic jamming and countermeasures, as Russia has done to the US during each of the wars in Iraq that the US has been involved in. It has been the first time the US has been able to observe (mostly by satellite detection) how a full blown Russian conventional attack is planned and carried out.
There were also cyber-attacks on government offices, which did little to harm the country itself.
Key Ukrainian government websites were down early Thursday local time following a day in which Ukrainian agencies dealt with multiple cyberattacks... in separate and potentially more serious hacking incident hours earlier, a data-wiping tool was found on hundreds of computers in Ukraine. (CNN.com)
After the initial round of missile attacks which also attacked military targets around the capital of Kiev, Kharkiv, and other cities, Russia began the pincer movement in the West by invading simultaneously Southward from Belarus and then northward with armored columns and troops rolling into coastal cities on the south of Mariupol and Odessa, which might be joined with amphibious assaults on the coast, in preparation for launching a thrust northward toward Kiev.
Although the pincers movement is still in its beginning stages, this movement to cutoff the entire Eastern two-thirds of the country from the agricultural sector to the West (with few cities or military sites) is the clearest indication so far that Russia intends to take control of the entire nation and isolate it from any source of resupply from the West.
The thrust from Belarus down toward Kiev started with a fairly small contingent of faster vehicles with no heavy armor. I suspect they did this in order to discover any potential ambush sites Ukraine may have set up along the modern highway linking Kiev to Belarus along this line. After the way is clear, heavier armored units will follow.
The Drive has a site that is updated daily where you can follow what happens militarily each day. For example on Thursday, they posted that,
Reports continue to flow in regarding Russian attacks on locations across Ukraine. The most significant, but still unconfirmed report is that airborne troops may be attempting to forcefully seize sites in and around Kyiv, including Boryspil International Airport, the seizure of which would provide a bridgehead that additional forces could flow through.
The also reported amphibious landings in the south coast, but those later turned out to be false.
Ukraine’s Ministry of the Interior is reporting hundreds of casualties from the initial wave of Russian attacks. There are continued reports of air, missile, and artillery strikes across Ukraine.
There are a lot of conflicting damage reports, with each side claiming to have destroyed aircraft and helicopters, and the other side denying the reports. The Daily Mail said that “Kyiv's troops have already shot down five Russian helicopters, destroyed dozens of tanks” with the potent US-supplied Javelin anti-tank missile. But their claim that “an entire battalion defected” is not credible.
I’m sure there are some Russian casualties and downed aircraft, but with Russia’s superior hi-tech aircraft and air defense units, I fully suspect that Ukraine’s air assets have been heavily damaged. One Ukrainian Su-27 fighter had to land in Romania because its airbase’s runway was too damaged to allow for a landing. Another was shot down over Kiev today.
Ukraine is operating Turkish-made TB2 armed unmanned attack aircraft against Russian forces, and Russia claims to have shot down at least four of these drones.
While some are saying this will be a long and “complex, multi-stage, protracted conflict,” I’m more of the opinion that it will be over in a couple of weeks. As you read this the Russian air force most likely already has total air dominance in the skies, and Ukrainian armor, artillery and infantry forces can’t survive long without friendly air cover.
The entire Ukraine area, including a large sector of Russia to the East of Ukraine has been declared off limits to civilian aircraft. There are no commercial flights in or out of Ukraine so, as in Afghanistan, the few thousand remaining Americans are being told by the US embassy to “shelter in place”—whatever good that will do. They will be trapped as the country becomes surrounded by Russian forces, but I doubt there will be any major destruction of the cities. So far, it’s not Putin’s policy to target the cities, but if Ukrainians decide to wage a guerilla war in the urban areas, all that could change.
The Refugee Crisis
Beginning on Wednesday and accelerating on Thursday, there were long streams of cars fleeing Kiev for Western Ukraine. Huge traffic jams are clogging all the intersections leading to the major highway heading West. Most will be heading for the Lviv, the largest city in Western Ukraine, about 43 miles from the Romanian border. This city of some 700k people will be ill-equipped to handle another million people fleeing from Kiev and other cities to the East. Romania will soon have a massive influx of refugees to deal with.
The Daily Mail quotes military experts who say that Putin’s armor and troops are beginning to surround Kiev and that it could fall by this weekend. The city is under attack now, and her are the Daily Mail’s pictures of some death and damage already inflicted.
Moldova borders Ukraine to the SW and is also a possible refugee destination, but being the second poorest nation in Europe with no potential to support refugees, that won’t be the first choice for travelers. They will want to get into an EU country and many will be looking for a permanent relocation, when Moscow’s control over Ukraine prevails.
The West is Outwardly Fuming but No Action
As I predicted, the US and the EU are making outlandish promises of support that they have no intention of keeping. President von der Leyen of the European Union:
“We will not let President Putin tear down the security architecture that has given Europe peace and stability over the past decades. We will not allow President Putin to replace the rule of law with the rule of force and ruthlessness. He should not underestimate the resolve and strength of our democracies... The European Union stands with Ukraine and its people. We will continue to support them. Ukraine will prevail.”
In fact, Putin is sure the EU and NATO do NOT have the resolve and strength to contest this Russian invasion. Western leaders are proving him right: Secretary General of NATO, Jen Stoltenberg has only talked defense saying,
"There will be more forces in the east of the alliance over the next days & weeks” and says “it could include elements of the NATO Response Force... to do whatever is necessary to shield the Alliance from aggression,” but that “We don't have any plans to send NATO troops into Ukraine."
That matches what Joe Biden said, when he vowed that sending US troops into Ukraine is off the table. Zelensky said on Thursday, "I spoke to Biden. They are preparing international support." I’m skeptical since NATO is doing nothing but shifting a few resources to the East and only for defense. Later, when Zelenski realized Biden was doing nothing, he called Biden back and angrily accused him of “leaving his country alone,” and said the Kremlin has marked him as “target No.1" True. Putin will demand a puppet regime of Russia be installed.
NATO has ordered its commanders to prepare to defend allied territories and has moved planes, and ships closer to the areas bordering Russia. NATO countries on the border with Russia (Poland and the Baltic States) have triggered Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which merely allows for “consultation” with other countries when they perceive a threat.
But Russia has no intention of attacking any NATO member states as long as they don’t intervene, so these moves are a rather meaningless gesture, and contrast largely with what leaders are promising President Zelensky of Ukraine:
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a phone call on Thursday that “the West would not stand by as President Putin waged his campaign against the Ukrainian people,” according to Downing Street. [CNN]
But that’s exactly what they are doing–standing by and doing nothing. Australia’s PM Scott Morrison called Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
"brutal" and "unprovoked," while announcing new sanctions on 25 more individuals and four financial institutions.
“We denounce what are unilateral hostile actions in Ukraine. Russia is flagrantly breaching international law and the UN Charter. Russia has chosen war,” Morrison said, "Together with the international community, we are banding together in strong terms to condemn these outrageous acts in the strongest possible terms," Morrison said. [CNN.com]
Morrison’s war on the unvaxxed in Australia has also been “brutal and unprovoked.” Then, in lock step with other globalist nations, “Morrison said there were no plans for Australia to engage in military support for Ukraine.”
The UN was also useless at stopping anything: United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres told Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop "attacking Ukraine" and to give peace a chance. But, incredibly, Russia is head of the UN Security Council with veto power to stop any UN condemnation of Russia. Ukraine has called on Russia to relinquish its current role as head of the Security Council over declaring war. Fat Chance of that. The world should see the utter falsehood of the premise behind the UN, who is supposed to “unite” the nations in peace.
Token Sanctions
All Western nations are willing to retaliate with is a few sanctions—and mild ones at that aimed at Russian leaders and members of Parliament:
New sanctions will be placed on Putin himself, his oligarches who support him, army commanders, deputy defense ministers, Russian mercenaries, and even members of the Russian Parliament who voted to support this invasion.
But Western sanctions can only ban their ability to travel to the West, or freeze what funds they might have in the West or that transfer through the SWIFT system. In anticipation of this banking freeze, many of those funds have already been withdrawn, and Russia has been fielding their own alternative banking transaction system, so these sanctions are pretty mild.
The biggest sanction of all on the Nord Stream pipeline also may not actually stop it since the US is not a party to the agreement. It merely provided “waivers” that allowed for general loans because the US claimed it was “in the US interest.” How so was it ever in our interest? -And, suddenly it is not! The prior CNN.com link contained this quote as well.
— and its top executives, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Wednesday night... Blinken said Wednesday that following Russia’s actions this week, those waivers were no longer in the US' national interest. The newly imposed sanctions and visa restrictions target the company, its CEO Matthias Warnig, and its corporate officers.
But there’s a loophole that allows construction to continue: “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Tuesday that Germany has taken steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia.” [Deutsche Welle]
Certification isn’t due for over a year, so the Germans are betting that the uproar over the invasion will be over by then and the pipeline certification will finally go through. They aren’t going to allow a multi-billion dollar pipeline they’ve already paid for to go wasting away when Germany is desperate for gas, and Russia is all too willing to allow Germany to become dependent on Russian energy.
Many Conservatives are Deceived: I continue to field pointed arguments by conservatives who have been duped by Putin who professes loyalty to Christianity (while persecuting non-Orthodox Christians in Russia), and his reputation as fighting against globalism (but only to establish his own control over a Russian dominated NWO). Here’s Jeffrey Nyquist’s response to those Americans deceived by Putin’s grand deception.
Putin is Willing to Negotiate with Ukraine on Two Conditions: A guarantee of neutral status and the promise of no weapons on its territory—in other words a defenseless vassal state.
China in Full Support of Russia
At their meeting during the Beijing Olympics, China’s Xi Jingping expressed total support for Russia’s motives and moves in Ukraine. As if to telegraph a potential second theater of war, Chinese jets also began to probe and harass Taiwan again yesterday, sending 9 aircraft into Taiwans’ military identification zone. The number of intruders was significantly less than the last large-scale incursion of 39 Chinese aircraft on January 23. In between there have been only a few sporadic intrusions until now. Taiwanese fighters were sent up to warn the Chinese aircraft and air defense missiles were triggered, which is what China wants to see, for intelligence purposes.
Since the invasion began, China’s rhetoric against Taiwan has become increasingly hostile. China blames the US as the “culprit” for Ukraine tensions, and vows to "Eradicate" Taiwan's "Secessionist Regime."
The Olympics are now over, so the window is wide open for China to make good on its threat to invade Taiwan and end its claim self-rule status. The Chinese may be waiting to see what the US reaction will be to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine before acting. US passivity in the face of Russian aggression will send a signal to China that the US is also unlikely to respond militarily to an attack on Taiwan.
Summary comments: I realize that many Americans do not view the Russian invasion of Ukraine as any of our business, and I both agree and disagree. In a direct sense, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a direct threat to our sovereignty, but with a view toward the bigger picture of who will attempt to control the world, Russia is the number one most dangerous enemy to our nation and China is number two and gaining rapidly in military might.
Both nations are preparing to act in concert to strike US military forces in a pre-emptive nuclear attack given sufficient provocation or excuse—which I think a war in Korea will provide. The US and NATO could intervene in the name of preserving a nation’s liberty, and Russia may well not be fully prepared to escalate things to WWIII—but it’s getting closer.
So, in the end, there eventually will be a war that we will have engaged either Russia or China (because we have troops in harm’s way, as in S. Korea). So, I say, the sooner the better when Russia or China may not be as prepared as they will be in the latter part of this decade. Stopping Russia in Ukraine would certainly help rebuild the world’s confidence in the US as the defender of freedom rather than our current reputation as the bully and intervener around the world, as we have been in Iraq and Afghanistan furthering the phony war on terror (which we created).
In my analysis WWIII with these two communist powers is inevitable, so don’t pussy-foot around while they get stronger. We can’t start this war, but we can certainly stop them from gobbling up weaker nations.