Re: [Monbiot] What happens when?

[PAdam...@aol.com]

I noticed today the price of diesel has edged up again - £1.43 a litre. Thats 8p higher than at the peak of a couple of years ago when crude was $145 a barrel. Its also 8p lower than if recent scheduled tax rises had been implemented.

 

The price of road fuel in the UK is largely driven by what the supermarkets are charging in a very competitive and depressed market. Nobody makes profit from selling road fuel, only by selling other goods to motorists when they call to fill up.

 

So, what happens when crude goes up again to nearly $150 and perhaps much higher? What happens to Government revenue when they are forced to cut taxes again? What happens when yet more businesses dependant on people driving cars go under? What happens when tax revenues fall even more and unemployment rises?

 

My home town, Oxford, used to have 26,000 car industry jobs. Now its down to 5,000 - many of those poorly paid agency workers. Still plenty of wealth there though. 5 million journeys a year through the rail station - many commuting to London at great expense on overcrowded trains. The university science area being redeveloped at over £1 billion. Today 7,000 people paid over £20 each to spend 2 hours on a cold January day watching United lose to Crewe Alexandra! House prices are still rising, and its a landlords' paradise. I certainly cant afford to live there now. A good place for a transition town perhaps?

 

Patrick

[Roger Priddle]

Hi Patrick

My wife filled her car with gas today - it was about $1.15cdn/litre here in Ontario.  Last I saw, crude was just under $100US/barrel.  I don't know what the conversion is from Sterling to Dollars but the US and Cdn are about par. 

Based on what I've read, we've passed Peak Oil (although no-one agrees on just when...).  If the theories are right, the price of fuel should now start a series of spikes and fall backs, with each cycle higher than the one before.  No amount of "competition" will be able to hold the prices at current levels over the next 5 to 10 years. 

In Canada, the taxes are a percentage of the selling price (I believe) so as the price rises, government revenue from fuel rises too.  Certainly, there will have to be adjustments in the way business behaves as the price of fuel rises but surely we can concurrently reduce the absolute amount of fuel burned...?  More efficient vehicles, smarter routing, telecommuting and teleconferencing, etc should all create efficiencies that cheap fuel has not encouraged.

While some parts of society still have lots of surplus, I expect that to decrease with the increase in the cost of all petroleum-based products and activities.  (Let's face it - even the ticket prices for a United/Crewe Alexandra match (whatever that is <grin>) will rise as the cost of transporting the teams around rises.)

All these people making long commutes will have to change.  We have the same situation here.  Near Toronto (a major city), suburbs were built consisting of thousands of houses in the 3,000 to 4,000 sq.ft range.  (I think that's 300 to 400 sq. m. but my memory of the conversion factor may be wrong.)  These are large, inefficient and poorly insulated.  Heating cost is going to be a major concern along with the commuting costs - those people have no local jobs and no rail transit, in fact, very little transit at all.

Many of those homes were built on prime farmland - now lawns are the order of the day.  I expect to see vegetable gardens and chickens there soon, and people generating local work, or selling and moving to where the work is.

Transition Towns are bound to become more prevelant and relevant in the next few years.  We have a very active one here, planning a conference on local food soon in conjuction with the local government.  Actually, compared to many areas I hear about, I feel pretty good about the way things are progressing in my immediate area.

Roger.

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