Hi

[john fitzgerald]

Nice to hear from you Patrick & David. Not sure why all of a sudden
everything went quiet. Hopefully all the regulars will be encouraged
to post again, I do miss the vast knowledge that you all give and the
time taken to enlighten us all.

How are things in Ireland David & the UK Patrick.....?? The Global
economic meltdown would be a good topic to start would you
think.....??

All the very best,

John Fitzgerald.

[PAdam...@aol.com]

In a message dated 04/12/2011 23:23:36 GMT Standard Time, john....@gmail.com writes:

How are things in Ireland David & the UK Patrick.....?? The Global
economic meltdown would be a good topic to start would you
think.....??

Hi John,

 

What strikes me as odd about the utterly predictable economic meltdown is the lack of political leadership, and the fact that nobody seems to be making any ground. Just been reading about the USA Republican candidates - a very negative "least worst" campaign? Here in the UK, both the weak coalition and the weak opposition lack any coherence or consistancy.

 

A political vacuum perhaps - very dangerous for democracy. Or is it just that they have always been telling lies, and now they have run out of credibility, they know it, and dont know what to say?

 

Patrick

[Mark Lynds]

Seems to be the normal amount of leadership to me; far too much and it's going the same old way.

[Kuttappan Vijayachandran]

Yes, let us make another start: I promise to be as active as possible. 

K Vijayachandran

On Mon, Dec 5, 2011 at 5:40 AM, Mark Lynds <marl...@gmail.com> wrote:

Seems to be the normal amount of leadership to me; far too much and it's going the same old way.

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[tmgraphics]

On 4 Dec 2011, at 23:23, john fitzgerald wrote:
> How are things in Ireland David & the UK Patrick.....?? The Global
> economic meltdown would be a good topic to start would you
> think.....??

The mantra is growth, of course. One man on a discussion programme on the radio was cut across and ignored when he dared utter the words, 'growth is not coming back'.

But that is my view - there will be pockets of growth here and there, labelled as green shoots of recovery, but don't let anyone be deceived - growth requires (cheap) energy and this is declining. Remember Colin Campbell's succinct phrase about using tomorrow's collateral to finance today's debt. The collateral is running short.

But still, our so-called leader's 'address to the nation' last night (he's got a whumph of confidence since Obama was here) confidently forecasts a growing, vibrant economy in a few years, so long as the 99% make all the necessary sacrifices.

There is still a lot of cash sloshing about in Ireland's economy and that inertia gives many people the illusion of prosperity. People are working harder for less money; fine as long as it goes but most believe that's all the sacrifice they need and just for a short time. Ha!

My advice: get rid of debt, grow your own food, get out of 'systems' (ie banks/finance/paid work/technology) as much as possible, do without, enjoy less, walk, cycle, help your neighbours, become a miser.

David

[Duncan Hewitt]

Hi all, still alive and kicking here.

I often have long conversations with my father-in-law, born in '37, who remembers shire horses on farms where he used to help as a lad, has seen globalisation with its upsides and downsides. His opinion, concerning the state of the UK, which I know mirrors many Western economies in its current state, was 'move to China'. My argument in return is that each and every successive empire, which were all mainly built to acquire assets, have grown and shrunk in a far shorter time than their predecessor, mostly due to the speed of transport and communication. This speed has come about through technological progress, and much of that is down to the good old cheap fuel, combined with technological superiority over the conquered.

This fuel will become more expensive and rare, and whilst I believe we have some forward path in the renewables, I do not believe they will replace the production of energy at a rate we receive from fossile fuels. Whether public opinion will enable nuclear to be shrugged off in the short term is doubtful, but enough nuclear accidents will see their demise eventually - and they will happen, it's just a matter of time.

This being said, I believe the current rise of the eastern economies will be one of the fastest and short-lived empires. Firstly, they have the capacity, by sheer dormant numbers of potential consumers, to eat up the remaining fossil fuel reserves far quicker than even the USA and the rest of the west has managed so far. Secondly, at the current time, much of their wealth and therefore assets have been funded by the west pouring its money, real and borrowed, into the east, to the point that the east is now funding the west in order to facilitate that crazy deal. Our government wonder why consumers here in the UK are not confident to buy at the moment, and that the consumer that has a massive effect on the economic figures of this country (I heard two thirds being mentioned on a programme), might even help us into a new recession. The simple fact is that the consumer is realising that money is not infallible, as they have been led to believe. With various people at the top no longer 'promising to pay the bearer', the lowly consumer is starting to finally realise that they have, and still are, being screwed over by the guys at the top, as they have since time immemorial. Only this time the chattel is money and debt. They are putting more and more of their money into tangible assets - witness the second house boom, the land grabbing, the rise of silver and gold prices, the rise in local growing cooperatives - you could go on.

No - the eastern empire will live fast and die fast, globalisation will diminish and be replaced by a more selective globalisation (high-tech, high-cost)  in conjunction with a re-localisation of products where it is cheaper and easier to do so - food being one of the first - once transportation is taken into consideration.

Being an optimist, I look forward to the day re-localisation is here. We will need to rebuild local communities - it is already happening in places - again, witness the rise of local farm shops - no longer just for the rich and middle class (although often are still so). Our new local farm shop sells easonal veg cheaper than supermarkets and sources locally, and rear their own free-range eggs by the thousands as part of the John Bowler group. We will see more selling of local produce, we will see more communication on a local level as a by-product of this, and the benefits that brings. But this time around, one globalisation we will still have is communication, and this is a boon. We will still be able to share knowledge and hold ignorance at bay (a very conspicuous downside of earlier times).

Just my thoughts, but I'm putting my weight behind this being the case.

Duncan

[Kuttappan Vijayachandran]

In India, Government plan for permitting FDI in retail is facing stiff resistance. Attached is a report on opposition to this proposal by Amul, the leading Indian brand in the cooperative dairy sector. A discussion on this issue will be of great relevance.

K Vijayachandran   

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[tmgraphics]

On 5 Dec 2011, at 13:09, Kuttappan Vijayachandran wrote:

In India, Government plan for permitting FDI in retail is facing stiff resistance.

And so it should. Foreign intervention will kill local systems, while offshoring profits. Foreign companies have come to Ireland to take advantage of generous location and training grants plus the low rate of corporate taxation, moving on when better opportunities present themselves.

In the retail markets, supermarkets dictate and take most of the final retail price. A few growers have good relations with supermarkets, but they are in the minority and usually provide niche products. If you grow potatoes for which the supermarket is not willing to cover your costs and give you profit, you're stuck.

Generally, the profit from growing real products is sucked upwards towards the 1%; little is reinvested.

If India can successfully tax money leaving the country, let us know how!

David

[Duncan Hewitt]

Indeed. The last dairy farmer in our local area gave up 3 years ago and only keeps a few simmentals for beef now. The local sheep farmer supplies the supermarkets but has nothing good to say about them and blames them for the state of farming. He needs to keep a flock of around 1,600 to make it work and I've never seen someone keep hours like he does. It's not working here - it might look like it on paper to people when they see profit margins from supermarkets, but the cost to the community and the long-term costs that will come to pass once cheap oil has gone will be a far greater price. The UK will discover this the hard way as we have already given up our local production in favour of larger scale. I can't believe that someone who is backing the new promotion of 'mega-dairies' in the UK hasn't looked at the future transportation costs of feed and cattle that these systems will need. Even our local MP won't object to them, stating that they are needed to keep the country fed. As if our country doesn't have enough as it is. Mega dairies, cattle in confined spaces - basically concentration camps for cattle - milked until they're spent, then turned into cheap meat. It's akin to the cliched response to nuclear power stations that someone gave me a couple of years ago..."Well, we need to keep the lights on". Bloody blinkered idiots - not a bit of common sense prevails when money and/or human comfort is an issue. India still has a chance to avoid jumping on this particular band wagon before its wheels fall off - I hope your cooperatives fight the good fight well.

Duncan

[tmgraphics]

On 5 Dec 2011, at 15:09, Duncan Hewitt wrote:

The last dairy farmer in our local area gave up 3 years ago and only keeps a few simmentals for beef now.

Indeed, this seems to be happening here with dairy being less and less profitable as conglomerates force producer prices down. This in turn leads to the mega factory farm, desperate long hours and a blind eye to environmental destruction and humanity towards other species and more resource use as materials are shipped from afar.

A ridiculous tale is of one dairying neighbour who buys milk from the supermarket for his family! And some of it comes from England...the plastic, the fuel, the work is all seen as such a minor 'cost'.

The shortfall in easy-to-get-at oil is going to make itself felt very soon; is making itself felt, really, bolstered only by unconventional fuel sources becoming more 'economic'.

I'm not a particular fan of the Mayan end-of-calendar doomerism but it seems to be a perverse coincidence that wheels will be falling off the economic/environmental/resource/pollution/social wagon in quantity during 2012.

David

[Duncan Hewitt]

It does seem like it'll be an interesting year. I don't think all wheels will fall off at the same time - well, not in the same year. But I do think the next 20/30 years will be a time of dramatic change. We have been through this kind of thing before though - what we really do need is leaders who will give the population the tools with which to take control of their lives, rather than having the majority rely on large corporations for their every need - food, medicine, transport, entertainment. Except for medicine, these are all things people can take control of, to a greater or lesser extent. The alternatives are less comfortable than being baby-fed, but arguably some are healthier and better. But we really do need leaders with balls to help facilitate these things.

Duncan

[Kuttappan Vijayachandran]

Amul is a unique Indian experience, a two billion USD cooperative of women farmers of Gujarat, owning a large scale modern dairy industry and a state-of the art R&D organisation.Just have a look at their website: http://www.amul.com/

Even this mammoth cooperative feel threatened by FDI in retail!!

K Vijayachandran 

[PAdam...@aol.com]

In a message dated 05/12/2011 10:51:18 GMT Standard Time, grap...@tmprinting.ie writes:

The mantra is growth, of course. One man on a discussion programme on the radio was cut across and ignored when he dared utter the words, 'growth is not coming back'.

But that is my view - there will be pockets of growth here and there, labelled as green shoots of recovery, but don't let anyone be deceived - growth requires (cheap) energy and this is declining. Remember Colin Campbell's succinct phrase about using tomorrow's collateral to finance today's debt. The collateral is running short.

But still, our so-called leader's 'address to the nation' last night (he's got a whumph of confidence since Obama was here) confidently forecasts a growing, vibrant economy in a few years, so long as the 99% make all the necessary sacrifices.

There is still a lot of cash sloshing about in Ireland's economy and that inertia gives many people the illusion of prosperity. People are working harder for less money; fine as long as it goes but most believe that's all the sacrifice they need and just for a short time. Ha!

My advice: get rid of debt, grow your own food, get out of 'systems' (ie banks/finance/paid work/technology) as much as possible, do without, enjoy less, walk, cycle, help your neighbours, become a miser.

Mervyn King (Governor, Bank of England) recently warned that the economic meltdown is akin to a war. Not what the politicians dare say, nor what they want said on their watch. The economy needs to be put on a war footing - no more frivolous consumption, production geared towards dealing with the emergency.

 

What is worrying most people is, that at the time when incomes are falling, the cost of living keeps rising. That rise is due mainly to the rising cost of energy, which drives food prices. Trouble is, most dont see the connection.  Meanwhile they expect to sustain a lifestyle based on cheap energy and cheap food. The problem is bankers bonuses, the national debt, the budget deficit (even some MPs dont understand the diference!) - the problem is everything and anything apart from what it really is.

 

How can we be at war, when we dont know the enemy? Perhaps an enemy will have to be invented, and a real war started. A justification for a political intervention into peoples lives and lifestyles? Accompanied by one-nation jingoism of course. It happened in 1930s Germany. In the 1930s it was all about confidence, which is why Roosevelt said "we have nothing to fear except fear itself". Of course, Germany and the USA were very diferent places then. But now the world is all the same place.

 

Localism and self-sufficiency are good survival strategies, and should be pursued in any case. But we need something more to avert catastophe.

 

Patrick

[Roger Priddle]

Patrick - Do you truly believe that we will be able to "avert catastrophe"?

I try to act as though survival without oil is possible in the long
run, and when I talk to others I sound absolutely convinced that "we
can do it!", but in the dark of night...

I absolutely accept that the standard of living Western society has
enjoyed for the last 100 years is a bubble, borne on the twins of
cheap energy and willful disregard of our "messes". So I live
off-grid and recycle and eat local food...but I worry.

If you have some vision of a post-oil world that doesn't include mass
starvation, food riots and wars, I'd really enjoy reading it. Think
of it as an early Christmas gift...

Roger.

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music. (George Carlin)

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you,
then you win. (Mahatma Gandhi)

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed individuals
can change the world: indeed, it's the only thing that ever has!
(Margaret Meade)

[Duncan Hewitt]

I believe we can Roger. It won't be the world we know now - it will be a world where most people will be working towards their own food production in some way, where world numbers will need to shrink, and where energy is more scarce. But we will still have technology that we never used to have - whether we like it or not we will have nuclear power, and we will also have the renewables. There won't be anywhere near enough for the excessive amount we now use, but there may be enough for the necessities - medicine, production of needed tools, communication etc. Transportation will be cut, we will become more local. The hardest part, and the main worry to me, is trying to convince the masses that they *must* wean themselves off the consumerist society we now have if we are all to survive. If we can't convince people that they need to all jump on this band wagon, then the anarchy that will possibly ensue afterwards will be our downfall. We need grassroot community projects *now*, but I think this will partly happen as a matter of course through individuals as the cost of energy shrinks societies to a more manageable and natural size.

Duncan

[Susan Braddock]

Hi all,

Nice to see some discussion again - not been saying much as I find it hard not to be too depressed about everything!

Call me a doomer but,I think I agree with Roger regarding 'mass starvation, food riots and wars' being the most likely result of the current route humanity is taking. Unfortunately, I'm also not sure that renewables technologies will be sufficient even for a much reduced society - due to their reliance on other (other than oil, I mean) scarce resources (trace elements etc).

However, I do also believe there can be some mitigation if only the masses can see that things such as the financial crises are ultimately due to our overuse of the world's scarce resources.

Susan

[DavidT]

On 8 Noll 2011, at 16:14, Susan Braddock wrote:

Hi all,

Nice to see some discussion again - not been saying much as I find it hard not to be too depressed about everything!

I know what you mean. While we have to have some hope, we must also meanwhile face realities.

I quite like the thinking of John Michael Greer. If you have an hour or so to spare, it's worth reading some of his blogs: the last few have been particularly resonant, what with all the vapid 'thinking' going on in Europe at the moment about how to breathe life into our economic dinosaur.

first:

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/11/bringing-it-down-to-earth.html

then:

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/11/pepperspraying-future.html

and especially the last:

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011_12_01_archive.html

There's plenty to read in his earlier blogs but those three are particularly topical.

BTW, be warned he's not a big fan of George Monbiot...

David

[Roger Priddle]

I keep looking for the "soft landing".  Not necessarily personally - I like to think that I and my friends have enough education, sophistication, and perception to make our tiny Transition Town effort successful  - but if, as I've read, without oil the world can feed about 1 billion and if (again, according to forecasts I've read) the world population reaches 9 billion by 2050, I can not imagine that other 8 billion "going gentle into that good night."

Imagine an "uprising" that resulting in 5% of the population (wherever you live) being killed.  Given that the average North American city contains about 3 days worth of food, any major civil event that disrupted food supplies would in turn lead to food riots.  Assuming that I survive the initial slaughter, I'm suddenly faced with the prospect of going through a winter with none of the skills my grandfathers had while much of the infrastructure is no longer functioning.

Most of those who don't starve or freeze and who avoid serious injury are going to have to deal with rampant disease, if only from the unburied bodies on the street.  And I'm guessing that even most of the staunch "survivalists" rely on butane lighters to start the fire to cook the game they shot with their gun - how many have the skills and knowledge to make it in a truly non-technological society?

Rats!  I think I must have read too many of the wrong kind of books when I was young: "Canticle for Liebowitz", "Tomorrow", "On the Beach", etc.  ARRGHHHH!

Ok, I'm going out to rehearse music for local Christmas concerts - I'll be in a better mood when I get home <grin>.

Roger.

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[Susan Braddock]

Thanks David - will look at John Michael Greer.

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[PAdam...@aol.com]

In a message dated 08/12/2011 09:44:08 GMT Standard Time, dun...@kopperdrake.co.uk writes:

I believe we can Roger. It won't be the world we know now - it will be a world where most people will be working towards their own food production in some way, where world numbers will need to shrink, and where energy is more scarce. But we will still have technology that we never used to have - whether we like it or not we will have nuclear power, and we will also have the renewables. There won't be anywhere near enough for the excessive amount we now use, but there may be enough for the necessities - medicine, production of needed tools, communication etc. Transportation will be cut, we will become more local. The hardest part, and the main worry to me, is trying to convince the masses that they *must* wean themselves off the consumerist society we now have if we are all to survive. If we can't convince people that they need to all jump on this band wagon, then the anarchy that will possibly ensue afterwards will be our downfall. We need grassroot community projects *now*, but I think this will partly happen as a matter of course through individuals as the cost of energy shrinks societies to a more manageable and natural size

This is what should happen, Duncan, and it could, despite the obstacles, The question is will it? We have been conned by "big finance", with politicians in the pockets of crooks like Paulson and Bernanke. Its going on now, with Europe likely to cave in and give them a free reign to enslave us by cutting public investment while allowing a few to make fortunes.

 

Patrick

[DavidT]

On 8 Noll 2011, at 21:09, Roger Priddle wrote:

Rats!

Are they the next dominant species, Roger? 8))

My own vision of the future is of a slow but very bumpy ride downwards for 99%, with major - I mean epic, unprecedented - starvation in the usual places.

David

[TIMC...@aol.com]

 

 

In a message dated 09/12/2011 09:45:21 GMT Standard Time, grap...@tmprinting.ie writes:

Rats!

Are they the next dominant species

 

Shot a big, fat one on a bird feeder this week.

Looked as tasty as a Guinea Pig!

 

Maybe that's a definition of damning with faint praise but call them a delicacy and i'm sure they'd soon be another species on the endangered list.

 

Tim

[Roger Priddle]

(OK, so I have to figure out how to clip something and paste it as a quote...)

"...but call them a delicacy and i'm sure they'd soon be another species on the endangered list."

The Mississippi River has a problem with Asian Carp - the locals are trying to rebrand them as "Mississippi Tuna" - same idea, I hope it works! <grin>.

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