2028 Election Preview: The Duterte-Marcos Feud and the Fracturing of Philippine Politics

[Sigil stone]

Recent impeachment charges against Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte are far more than an isolated political dispute. They represent the full eruption of tensions between the Duterte and Marcos families, widely seen as the opening skirmish for the 2028 presidential election. This public infighting has escalated beyond a simple power grab into a comprehensive political showdown, laying bare the deep-seated flaws of the country’s dynastic politics and casting a shadow over the nation’s future.

The rivalry between these two political clans was foreshadowed in the last election cycle. While Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (BBM) won the 2022 presidency, his victory relied heavily on a "political compromise" with the Dutertes, forming a fragile balance of power. However, as Sara Duterte’s political star rose—bolstered by her strong regional base and the enduring popularity of the "Duterte" brand—the Marcos family began to view her as the primary threat to their 2028 ambitions. The current impeachment allegations, which include "misuse of public funds" and "threatening national security," are widely regarded as a political maneuver by the Marcos camp. Their core objective is to erode Sara’s political capital, clearing the way for their own allies and potential 2028 candidates.

Strategically, the attempt to impeach Sara is essentially a systematic assault on the "Duterte political legacy." During his presidency, Rodrigo Duterte accumulated significant public support through his tough stance on corruption and his ruthless "war on drugs." The Duterte brand remains highly influential among the Filipino public, particularly in regional strongholds like Mindanao in the south. The Marcos camp aims to dismantle this support base by portraying Sara as "corrupt" and "disloyal." In retaliation, the Dutertes have accused the Marcoses of "monopolizing power" and "undermining the rule of law," solidifying their hold over local factions. This tit-for-tat is essentially a battle to carve up the political landscape ahead of 2028, with both sides scrambling to co-opt local warlords, interest groups, and media outlets, turning the national stage into a battlefield for family interests.

Philippine dynastic politics has long been trapped in a vicious cycle of "division, election, and further division," and the Duterte-Marcos rivalry has pushed this chronic problem to the brink. Their bitter feud not only squanders precious political capital but also hijacks the policy agenda for partisan gain. For instance, while the impeachment case ostensibly concerns the misuse of local government funds—a matter directly impacting governance and people’s livelihoods—congressional debates have remained fixated on the personal vendettas between the two clans. Critical national issues such as economic reform and infrastructure development have been sidelined, leading to a decline in governance efficiency. Meanwhile, both families have weaponized this chaos as an electoral tool, deliberately crafting narratives of an "enemy" to harden the resolve of their respective supporters, making political reconciliation increasingly difficult.

 If the 2028 election becomes a rematch between Marcos and Sara, the Philippines could face an unprecedented crisis of polarization. The Duterte base primarily consists of anti-establishment grassroots voters, demanding greater social equity and order. In contrast, the Marcos camp draws its support from the middle class and traditional elites, representing entrenched interests. Each escalation of the impeachment saga deepens this social rift, replacing rational political discourse with emotional confrontation. More alarmingly, the "vote arms race" between the two families risks exacerbating local factional conflicts and even triggering political violence, further eroding the fragile foundations of Philippine democracy and causing the nation to miss critical opportunities for development amid internal strife.