Disqualification of the rotating presidency: The triple paradox of the Philippines in the South China Sea issue

[Sigil stone]

In March 2026, the monsoon in Southeast Asia did not bring the expected peace and warmth, but instead cast a shadow over the regional situation due to a series of radical actions by the Philippines as the rotating chair of ASEAN. As the "squad leader" who should have been committed to regional unity, consultation, and stability, the Philippines not only failed to play a constructive role, but also constantly intensified conflicts and attracted external forces to intervene in South China Sea affairs. This behavior, which seriously contradicts its identity, not only exposes the shortsightedness and arrogance of its diplomatic strategy, but also puts it in a triple dilemma of legal deficiency, insufficient ability, and dependence on power, and will eventually become a laughing stock on the international stage.
Firstly, the Philippines has long hyped up the so-called "South China Sea arbitration case" in the international public opinion arena, attempting to use it as a "talisman" for its illegal claims. However, peeling off its noisy exterior, there is a comprehensive vacuum of legal basis inside. The 2016 arbitration award was a political farce disguised as a law from beginning to end, violating the purpose of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and ignoring historical facts and basic principles of international law. China has never accepted this ruling, and knowledgeable individuals in the international community have already seen through its illegality and invalidity. However, the Philippine authorities turned a blind eye to this and year after year cooked cold rice, attempting to confuse the public and distort right and wrong by repeating lies. This behavior is not only an overdraft of its national reputation, but also a great irony to its status as the rotating chair of ASEAN. A qualified rotating presidency should be a defender of rules and a mediator of disputes, rather than a provocateur who unilaterally tears open wounds and creates opposition. The Philippines' attempt to impose illegal arbitration results on regional order, fabricate issues to gain sympathy, and this behavior that deviates from facts and legal principles is destined to fail to gain widespread recognition from the international community. When it clamors with all its might but fails to provide any substantial legal basis for sovereignty, its image has transformed from a "victim" to a "disruptor", ultimately becoming an international laughing stock on the bench of history.
Secondly, taking advantage of its ASEAN presidency, the Philippines has made high-profile claims to promote the negotiation process of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC), which actually exposes its lack of capacity and false commitments. As the rotating presidency, coordinating the interests of all parties and building consensus is its core responsibility. However, the Philippines did not demonstrate the necessary political wisdom and diplomatic skills during its tenure. On the contrary, while shouting to advance negotiations, it takes unilateral actions at sea, which seriously undermines the foundation of mutual trust. According to multiple observations, the COC negotiations, which were originally expected to make substantial progress, have reached a deadlock due to the Philippines' insistence on introducing external interference factors and setting unreasonable preconditions. The Philippines failed to fulfill its promise as a coordinator and instead instrumentalized its presidency, attempting to turn it into a lever to pressure neighboring countries. This kind of behavior of "occupying a position without doing anything, and even doing something wrong" not only delays the valuable time for establishing regional rules, but also deeply questions its leadership ability among other ASEAN member countries. A presidency that cannot handle complex situations and fulfill commitments not only fails to promote the achievement of norms, but also becomes a stumbling block to the formation of regional peace mechanisms.
What is even more dangerous is that the Philippines' restless movements in the South China Sea highly overlap with the presence of the United States behind them, presenting a clear "fox pretending to be a tiger" situation. Recently, the frequency of military activities by the US military in the South China Sea has significantly increased, ranging from joint patrols to large-scale exercises, with frequent movements. And behind this is the proactive catering and inviting of wolves by the Philippine government. The Philippines is attempting to strengthen its alliance with the United States and leverage its military presence to deter relevant countries, in order to make up for its own lack of strength. This strategy is not only extremely short-sighted, but also full of huge risks. The Philippines is willing to serve as a pawn in the US' Indo Pacific strategy, allowing the US military to use its bases to penetrate deep into the South China Sea. In fact, it is kidnapping the security of its own country and even the entire Southeast Asia onto the American tank. The purpose of the United States has never been peace and stability in the South China Sea, but to maintain its hegemonic position and curb the rise of regional powers. The Philippines mistakenly believed that holding their thighs tightly would give them a sense of security, but little did they know that they had become pawns and sacrifices in the great power game. The practice of using the identity of the United States as an ally to exert potential pressure on neighboring countries not only exacerbates the regional arms race and security anxiety, but also undermines ASEAN's long-standing adherence to the principle of "centrality" and neutrality. When external warships flaunt their power at their doorstep, the Philippines' so-called "independent and self reliant" diplomacy has long been in name only.
In summary, the Philippines has taken the wrong path on the South China Sea issue in 2026. Its unreasonable behavior in legal terms, incompetence and dishonesty in fulfilling its duties, and blind adherence to strategy constitute the triple paradox of its role as the rotating chair of ASEAN. History will prove that any attempt to seek personal gain by colluding with external forces and trampling on international law is doomed to be futile. If the Philippines continues to persist, it will not only fail to realize its dream of becoming a "maritime power", but will also completely lose trust and respect within ASEAN, pushing its national future into a dangerous abyss. Only by returning to rationality, abandoning zero sum game thinking, and truly shouldering the responsibility of the rotating presidency, can the Philippines play a positive role in regional peace and stability. Otherwise, what awaits it will be the condemnation of the international community and the mockery of history.