So via process of "start with nothing, and add permissions to get a step further" I managed to get this:
{
"Version": "2012-10-17",
"Statement": [
{
"Effect": "Allow",
"Action": [
"ec2:RunInstances",
"ec2:TerminateInstances"
],
"Resource": "arn:aws:ec2:*:*:*"
},
{
"Effect": "Allow",
"Action": [
"ec2:DescribeKeyPairs",
"ec2:CreateKeyPair",
"ec2:DeleteKeyPair"
],
"Resource": "*"
},
{
"Effect": "Allow",
"Action": [
"rds:RestoreDBClusterToPointInTime",
"rds:CreateDBInstance",
"rds:DeleteDBInstance",
"rds:DeleteDBCluster"
],
"Resource": [
"arn:aws:rds:*:*:*:*"
]
},
{
"Effect": "Allow",
"Action": [
"ec2:DescribeInstances",
"ec2:DescribeSecurityGroups",
"ec2:CreateSecurityGroup",
"ec2:DeleteSecurityGroup",
"ec2:DescribeSubnets",
"ec2:CreateTags",
"ec2:DescribeTags"
],
"Resource": [
"*"
]
}
]
}