If you look at Tesla last quarter delivery numbers, the VIN graph had an accuracy of only 86.7%. That is worse than Bloomberg's graph and Tesla VIN registration. I created a thread on Model 3 Owners club at the same time, and there were a whole lot of people who could guess at the actual number better than that VIN graph model. So while the VIN graph line looks pretty, it correlates very poorly with the actual delivery number. To leave it in would imply a level of precision in the data that does not exist.
Regarding production numbers, no one outside of Tesla is privy to the true number. We only get reports of VIN assignment and delivery from the customers, so we can only extrapolate at the delivery number based on sample rate
(Delivery Page). There are tables there that break down the deliveries to daily, weekly, and monthly rate. But even if we know the actual delivery number, there is really no way to calculate production number. We have no way to determine how many cars Tesla is storing and how many cars are in transit from VIN assignment or delivery number. Again, according to last quarter results, the most accurate measure of production is Tesla VIN registration - not the VIN graph.